N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

This is a really informative doco if you have the time and download to watch .45 min's

www.abc.net.au...
4 Corners: Flashpoint Korea

US rejects talks with North Korea

www.guardian.co.uk...

but a White House spokesman has dismissed the proposal as a 'PR activity'

looking very grim

It is a clear indication what might happen now - China is to abandon North Korea and favours a United Korea, under the command of Seoul.

The regime in the North might lash out, regardless now, if it feels increasing paranoia after China walking away.

reply to post by SLAYER69


If and I mean, a big, IF - there is a plan to unifying Korea with military force, this could be interpreted with Chinese giving permission. South Korea might not have retaliated, or planned a preemptive strike, unless it received blessing from Beijing.

reply to post by infinite


I don't see China officially announcing they are cutting all ties with N. Korea any time soon.

I think this wikileak document goes back to 2006. china haven't done anything to separate themselves from N. Korea since then

Originally posted by infinite
reply to post by SLAYER69

 

If and I mean, a big, IF - there is a plan to unifying Korea with military force, this could be interpreted with Chinese giving permission. South Korea might not have retaliated, or planned a preemptive strike, unless it received blessing from Beijing.

Say what? Since when does South Korea need to ask anyone
if it can defend itself? If someone shoots you and you have the
means to defend yourself, would you look around and ask someone
if you can defend yourself?

reply to post by Nomad451

I think this wikileak document goes back to 2006. china haven't done anything to separate themselves from N. Korea since then

Yep. What they say and what they do are two different things. They've done NOTHING to show how they were ``against North Korea``... they've given them more aid, signed more treaties, supported them diplomatically...

If they are going to drop them, it would be against EVERYTHING they have done in the last 60 years.

More news.

# Gen. Sharp, the USFK commander, says "situation is calmer" but will continue to keep all informed. #Koreas 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck

# USFK Gen. Sharp via #FB posting reminds all servicemembers to keep their NEO (noncombatant evacuation ops) packets current. #Koreas 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck

# @YonhapNews: #ROK opposition leader says Pres. Lee's denial of 'sunshine policy' triggered N.K. provocations http://(link tracking not allowed)/eoN4zT about 2 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

BREAKING NEWS -- Yonhap news agency reports SK artillery killed 1 NK officer last week, wounded 2.

Now let's pause for one moment here.

Lots of headlines due to the Wikileaks leaks that China is no longer backing North Korea, and on the face of it, it appears the New Guard in Beijing, who wish to drop North Korea in favour of South Korea, are prevailing in wishing to see North Korea dropped in preference for the South, and a United Korea as long as it's no threat to China. The Old Guard-New Guard struggle and their differing views towards the Korean Penninsula is something I have covered previously, so I won't go into details.

But. Let's be careful and cautious here.

The main allegation in the leaks that China is ready to drop North Korea comes from South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister telling a US Ambassador what two Chinese officials had told him.

US embassy cables: China 'would accept' Korean reunification

Let's be very cautious. South Korea has an interest in convincing the US that China does not back North Korea, to placate American concerns regarding North Korea and any US concern that it may find itself in disagreement with or upsetting Beijing, and it is also in the South Korean interest to trumpet to the US that China supports the prospect of a Korea united under the South.

Because of this claim in the US Embassy cables about China wanting to drop North Korea comes from a South Korean Vice Foreign Minister, I am cautious.

I personally find the following even more interesting:

7. (S) Chun acknowledged the Ambassador's point that a strong ROK-Japan relationship would help Tokyo accept a reunified Korean Peninsula under Seoul's control. Chun asserted that, even though "Japan's preference" was to keep Korea divided, Tokyo lacked the leverage to stop reunification in the event the DPRK collapses.

According to South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister, Japan wants to keep South Korea divided.


Another US Embassy cable:


US embassy cables: China favours Korean reunification in long term

From the Link:

NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR TESTS, DOMESTIC POLITICS

10. (C) Guoping seemed genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent

ASTANA 00000982 003 OF 004

nuclear missile tests. "We need to solve this problem. It is very troublesome," he said, calling Korea's nuclear activity a "threat to the whole world's security." China opposes North Korea's nuclear testing and is working to achieve peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, according to Guoping. When asked about the reunification of Korea, Guoping said China hopes for peaceful reunification in the long-term, but he expects the two countries to remain separate in the short-term. Guoping said the domestic political situation in North Korea is "very complex" and suggested that Kim Jong-il's reported decision to anoint his youngest son as his successor was driven more by Kim's deteriorating health than any carefully planned strategy. "They had no time to plan for this," he said. Guoping said the "military really governs" North Korea and controls domestic politics and foreign policy. He suggested that Kim Jong-il's announcement was designed to send a message to the military and the great powers that he is really in charge and in control. Guoping said China's objectives in North Korea were to ensure they honor their commitments on nonproliferation, maintain stability, and "don't drive [Kim Jong-il] mad."

Here a Chinese Ambassador explains China is in favour of reunification, but is very careful not to say whether that would be under the North or South.

The New Guard do seem to be prevailing, but these cables are from what I have read thus far:

1) A demonstration of what an ambassador or minister will tell a representative of the US. This does not mean this is Chinese policy, merely what may be the Chinese policy to tell the Americans, so that Chinese real policy is not revealed too much to the sunlight. Consider it like a game of cards.

2) The strongest impression that China is ready to drop North Korea and support A United Korea ruled by Seoul comes from a South Korean Vice Foreign Minister to a US Ambassador, regaling what the Chinese had told him. Let us note that it is in South Korea's interest to say China has stopped supporting North Korea, but also that this claim is told by not the Chinese, but a South Korean government minister who is delivering this report second-hand.

3) The revelation I think from this, that I should not find surprising is the South Korean impression Japan DOES NOT support a reunified Korea, which does not seem to have garnered much interest in the media. Japan's alleged stance can be understood when we realise Korea would be a powerful neighbour if united, an economic rival to Japan, and what Japan fears most, a possible United Korea that is close to China.

Originally posted by Mr. D

Originally posted by infinite
reply to post by SLAYER69

 

If and I mean, a big, IF - there is a plan to unifying Korea with military force, this could be interpreted with Chinese giving permission. South Korea might not have retaliated, or planned a preemptive strike, unless it received blessing from Beijing.

Say what? Since when does South Korea need to ask anyone
if it can defend itself? If someone shoots you and you have the
means to defend yourself, would you look around and ask someone
if you can defend yourself?

Well we question if the Iraqi or the Afghans have the right to defend them selves against the US invasion?

We call everyone in Iraq or Afghanistan insurgents if they resist the US invasion. Do we have the right to call them criminals?

Originally posted by Vitchilo

We all talk about China's relation and acceptation of an United Korea on it's border.... BUT WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA?

Russia could be the wild card here. China might like the idea of a Unified Korea... Russia might not.

edit on 30-11-2010 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

Vitchilo, I found this which is a US Embassy Cable on Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's visit to the DPRK. I have emboldened parts that I found of particular interest:

US embassy cables: Russia's rough ride in North Korea

From the Link:

1. (C) Summary. Amidst escalating threats from Pyongyang in response to UN Security Council actions against its April 5 missile launch, Russian Ambassador-at-Large for Six-Party Talks Grigoriy Logvinov during an April 28 meeting urged the U.S. and the other Six-Party partners to remain patient. Reporting that Foreign Minister Lavrov had a difficult trip to North Korea that did not reveal any flexibility in DPRK's position, he assessed that Pyongyang was hunkering down for a succession crisis, while seeking to use Yongbyon's disablement reversal as a bargaining chip for further concessions in the Six-Party talks. Lamenting that no one had good ideas on how to pull North Korea back from its brinkmanship, Logvinov asked for additional consultations with the U.S., particularly on the time it would take for Pyongyang to reassemble its plutonium reprocessing capabilities. In Logvinov's view, the Six-Party partners should use the intervening time to engage in quiet diplomacy to persuade North Korea to return to the negotiating table, though it is possible that we may have to wait until the succession crisis has passed before seeing a softening of North Korea's position. End Summary.

A Rough Trip

------------

2. (C) In an April 28 meeting, Ambassador-at-Large Grigoriy Logvinov characterized Foreign Minister Lavrov's April 23-24 trip to Pyongyang as "rough." Logvinov conveyed that the North Korean leadership was "very angry" and told Lavrov categorically that it was resolved to restart its nuclear program, would never participate in the Six-Party Talks again, and would not trust anything but nuclear deterrence as its security guarantee. In contrast to his 2004 trip, Lavrov did not get a meeting with Kim Jong-Il. Logvinov speculated that the reason could be due to either Kim's poor health or North Korean displeasure at the GOR's support for the UNSC Presidential Statement and sanctions.

3. (C) Indicating that FM Lavrov would be sending personal letters to his Six-Party counterparts regarding his trip, Logvinov urged the U.S. to show patience and not overreact to the latest developments. In his view, Pyongyang's hard line position was either a negotiating tactic or an indication that a power transition was near, but in any case did not represent the final word on the denuclearization issue. Referring directly to Japan, Logvinov warned that if countries were to press for additional UNSC action, it would only provoke the DPRK into further brinkmanship and prove counterproductive.

Wait Out the Succession Crisis

------------------------------

4. (C) Elaborating on his assessment that a power transition was near, Logvinov hypothesized that Pyongyang was being particularly intransigent because it wanted to demonstrate strength to the outside world and mask the power struggle occurring internally. Recalling the political instability around the time of Stalin and Mao's deaths, he indicated Moscow understood the possible fallout of a North Korean succession scenario because "we have seen this before." While noting that Kim Jong-Il appeared to be functioning, if impaired, Logvinov speculated that as long as the "Dear Leader" was technically alive, he could remain the face of a charismatic leadership. Others, whether it's his son or brother-in-law, could wield the power behind the scenes. Should Kim die, however, these people would have to emerge from the shadows and establish their own authority to rule, in which case the situation could become quite unstable. According to Logvinov, the GOR did not have a clear picture of the role the North Korean military would play in a succession crisis, nor did it know what importance to attach to the increased prominence of the military in the official press. Logvinov mused that a collective leadership arrangement might be a more stable option during a North Korean succession scenario.

5. (C) In Logvinov's personal view, nothing was likely to induce North Korea to abandon its current course and return to the negotiating table until the succession crisis passed. The only thing the Six-Party partners could do in the meantime, he stressed, was to wait out the power transition

More

Thanks a lot for these reports! Also pointing out from where these wikileaks that China is backing an United Korea... great work!

North Korea warned Tuesday that the continuing military drills by the United States and South Korea could lead to "all-out war any time."

South Korea prepares emergency shelters

Hence, evacuation centres were being prepared in the city on Monday, amidst mounting tensions.

There are 3919 emergency shelters across Seoul - many are housed in subway stations or underground carparks.

According to local officials, evacuation shelters can be easily reached by everyone within five minutes and can accommodate more than 20 million people.

They are not joking around...

S. Korea's counterfire killed one N. Korean officer, wounded two: activist

SEOUL, Nov. 30 (Yonhap) -- An anti-North Korea activist in Seoul said Tuesday that North Korea suffered just one death from South Korea's return fire during cross-border gunfire exchanges in the Yellow Sea on Nov. 23. Choi Sung-yong, the head of a group of relatives of South Koreans kidnapped by North Korea, told reporters that he has obtained intelligence that one North Korean officer was killed and two soldiers were wounded by South Korean artillery fired from Yeonpyeong Island.

Link

link

This might be very good news !!

Kyodo quoting sources saying China envoy Dai Bingguo to visit #DPRK, possibly as soon as tomorrow (Wed.) #Koreas 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck

CHINA IS ABOUT TO PUT THEIR FOOT DOWN ON NORTH KOREA!!!! Oh yeah!

China to tell the North eyeball to eyeball to stop their crap!

Hopefully... of course they could also say... stop worrying! If SK-US invade you, we back you up... like they told Kim back in May.

SKorea defense head says China envoy Dai Bingguo told Seoul officials NKorea suffered 'considerable damage' in clash with SKorea last wek

The following US Embassy cable leak gives details of a conversation between Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew (A very powerful figure in Singapore) and US diplomats.


US embassy cables: Former Singapore PM on 'psychopathic' North Koreans

From the Link, I have extracted the most interesting points, emboldening parts of particular interest:

4. (S) Deputy Secretary Steinberg met with Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew on May 30 on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the annual international security forum held in Singapore. The Deputy Secretary used the meeting with MM Lee to stress the importance of Chinese cooperation in addressing the North Korea nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee's views on China and North Korea. MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Chinese do not want North Korea, which China sees as a buffer state, to collapse. The ROK would take over in the North and China would face a U.S. presence at its border. If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad for China than a North Korea that has collapsed, he stated.

According to MM Lee, The Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons, but do not want North Korea to collapse as the ROK would take over the North and China would have a US Presence on it's borders.

This flies in the face of what the South Korean Vice Foreign Minister claimed about China no longer backing North Korea and being happy to see a United Korea ruled by Seoul.

5. (S) MM Lee said he asked Deputy Chief of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Ma Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea. General Ma's Delphic answer was that "they can survive on their own." MM Lee said he interpreted this as meaning that even if China cut off aid, the DPRK leadership would survive. This is a leadership that has already taken actions like killing ROK Cabinet Members in Burma and shooting down a KAL flight. If they lose power, they will end up facing justice at The Hague, like Milosevic. They have been so isolated for so long that they have no friends, not even Russia. They have not trusted China since the Chinese began cultivating ties with the ROK, given China's interest in attracting foreign investment, he said. The Deputy Secretary noted that the DPRK could have a fair and attractive deal if it would change its approach. If not, North Korea faces a change of course by the United States, the ROK and Japan.

North Korea facing 'A change of course' meaning if it did not change it's approach, it would face US/ROK/Japanese military action?

6. (S) The Deputy Secretary noted that North Korea's decisions will have an impact in Japan. MM Lee said he believes Japan may well "go nuclear." The Chinese must have factored this into their calculations and concluded that the prospect of Japan with nuclear weapons is less bad than losing North Korea as a buffer state. The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years the DPRK's current leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.

MM Lee believes, and China according to him believes that Japan may acquire nuclear weapons. According to MM Lee, China would see losing North Korea as a buffer state as worse than Japan acquiring nuclear weapons.

7. (S) MM Lee said he wishes the USG well in its efforts on North Korea, but he would be surprised if the North Koreans agree to give up nuclear weapons. They might give up a first-strike capacity, but they want nuclear weapons in case the USG decides to seek regime change. They are psychopathic types, with a "flabby old chap" for a leader who prances around stadiums seeking adulation.

MM Lee states that North Korea posesses nuclear weapons to deter regime change, which everyone already knows.

USG = United States Government.

8. (S) MM Lee said the ROK, after seeing what had happened with German unification, does not want immediate unification with the DPRK. There is "nothing there" in the DPRK, other than a military organization. Kim Jong-Il has already had a stroke. It is just a matter of time before he has another stroke.The next leader may not have the gumption or the bile of his father or grandfather. He may not be prepared to see people die like flies. China is calculating all this. They have their best men on the job. They want to help the United States to advance common objectives. But they do not want the South to take over the North, MM Lee said.

More

In conclusion, it seems from this US Embassy Cable (If MM Lee is to be believed) that while China may be tired of Kim Jong-il, they like having North Korea as a buffer state so that South Korea does not take over so that there is a US Presence on the Chinese border, and that China sees losing North Korea as a buffer as worse than seeing Japan attain nuclear weapons, which seems to be taken as an increasing liklihood.

The Chinese, according MM Lee, are banking on the current generation of North Korean leaders to be gone soon in favour of a new generation, and hope Kim Jong-un will not be so much like his father and Grandfather.

reply to post by Regensturm


I agree with you on this.

First of all, I don't trust a bit in WikiLeaks. It's something too good to be true. It's what everyone wanted all along, and honestly, that doesn't happen in the real world.

It's a colossal information leak, with convenient details covered. To me, that shows that the information was filtered before release, or that it was actually produced to meet certain objectives.

How handy would it be to have a document "accidently" published, stating so many different affairs, and who would have guessed, that among those, there was actually a document saying that the Chinese are "fed up" with the North Koreans, after China showing, all this time, that they actually support them, and that they just don't like how edgy Lil' Kim is...

I think it's so obvious that is pathetic. But even assuming that document is legit, it was made in a time in which China was pulling off stunts like surfacing a Song Class submarine right in the middle of a allied military exercise.

I don't see how the two realities fit. It almost looks childish.

Much less if you consider, that if back then the Chinese were already saying "enough with this crap", then they would never, ever, stood so silent and neutral regarding this provocation/attack situation in the first place.

If you are fed up with someone, and that person makes a stupid move, that's your excuse to ask them to go flack them-self's. That did not happen, much the opposite. China is very reluctant in opening hand of NK, and it's bothering them (or maybe not) what NK is doing. China, as we have seen through this bumpy days, is telling everyone to cool down, or there will be consequences, for both sides. They don't accept completely what NK is doing, but they don't fancy the US coming in and assuming control of that region. They already have Japan and SK, China isn't too happy about giving them even more control in that area, maybe even gaining some local support.

It's a complicated and nasty world that we live in. This looks more like sand being thrown into everyone's eyes, than some sort of "good" news.

It's a colossal information leak, with convenient details covered. To me, that shows that the information was filtered before release, or that it was actually produced to meet certain objectives.

Yeah. I think Wikileak IS legit... but the way it's given... seems planned to me.


I mean... out of 250.000 documents, the first batch touches Korea-China? Really? What a coincidence!