N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

reply to post by Regensturm

Apparently, there are journalists that have refused to leave Yeonpyeong Island when ordered to do so by the South Koreans.

Really? Any source on that? Because the Yeonpyeong Island is now considered territory under military control and everyone who's not military kicked off the island.

So I hope you're right that there's still journalists there so they can't do a false-flag...or obviously provoke the North and get away with it.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Really? Any source on that? Because the Yeonpyeong Island is now considered territory under military control and everyone who's not military kicked off the island.

It was reported by one of the news channels last night (possibily France 24, or it may have been CCTV News, I was flicking between the two at the time, now reported by Yonhap if you google it:

(2nd LD) (WRAPUP) S. Korea-U.S. drills begin in Yellow Sea, as ...
29 Nov 2010 ... The island, lying only some 20 kilometers from North Korea, ... about 200 domestic and foreign journalists to leave Yeonpyeong Island by the end of ... failed as almost all of the journalists refused to leave the island. ...
english.yonhapnews.co.kr/.../0301000000AEN20101129000100315F.HTML

Here's the link:

english.yonhapnews.co.kr...

As I said, I would be cautious about going there (Yonhap) though, because of computer threats.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
So I hope you're right that there's still journalists there so they can't do a false-flag...or obviously provoke the North and get away with it.

If there are journalists still on the island, they may be all that stands between peace and war. We need eyes to remain on that Island.

reply to post by Regensturm


Yep thanks for confirmation! Let's hope those journalists are enough to stop anyone from going to war.

In other news... the North is now saying that there's a state of war between the two Koreas... well yeah...it's called the Korean war!


North Korea has again denounced the ongoing South Korea-US military drills in the West Sea saying a state of war exists on the Korean peninsula.


I thought that the SKorean drill on the island was in MID-DECEMBER... but it's TOMORROW.... in less than 12 hours.

(CBS/AP) A South Korean military official said Monday that forces on the front-line island bombarded by North Korea last week would conduct new live-fire artillery drills there on Tuesday.

Maybe the drill I've heard about in mid-december is another drill in the same area... anyway doing that drill at the same time the North Korean delegation is in China... good thinking there...

They don't back down...and at the same time, since the North delegation is in China, China can tell them right away to keep still while the South does their drill.



But even then, the SKorean government KNOWS it's a provocation... here :

Officials on the island had warned residents in public address announcements to take shelter on Tuesday morning.

Worst case scenario : We're 12 hours or so from WW3...

Great finds Vitchilo, that is concerning.

The Guardian, among other newspapers, is publishing some of the latest Wikileaks leaks on it's website, just found this one of a US Embassy cable regarding North Korea:


US embassy cables: South Korea rings the alarm bells

From the Link:

5. (C) NSA Kim asserted that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il needed to visit China soon in order to get more economic assistance. The PRC was in the process of delivering a portion of the food aid promised during Premier Wen's visit to the DPRK last fall; approximately 6,000 metric tons (MT) of rice and 20,000 MT of soybeans has been delivered, but the DPRK needed a lot more. The situation inside North Korea, he added, appeared increasingly unstable. The North's currency replacement had created strong resentment throughout DPRK society, Kim said, adding that DPRK Finance Chief Pak Nam-gi had apparently been sacked. Kim asserted there were credible reports of unrest in the North; according to ROK intelligence sources, DPRK police recently found a bomb on a passenger train en route from Pyongyang to Beijing.

More

According to this US Embassy cable dispatch, South Korea is worried about stability and unrest within North Korea. This is supported somewhat by the videos said to come out of North Korea showing among other things, citizens rebelling against a corrupt policeman.

Kim Jong-il did indeed visit China this year as we know.

We may begin now to get more context on what is happening on the Korean Penninsula.

North Korea may feel the only way to preserve it's regime (if instability is truly bad) is by trying to unite the populace behind an external and historial threat: South Korea and the US.

So when South Korea fires into what North Korea deems it's territory, or if North Korea feels it's territory is violated, North Korea will now retaliate, as we saw last week, in perhaps a hope to unite the North Korean populace against an 'external threat'.


In a worst-case scenario, war may break out in an attempt to please the populace and preserve a government, which can be said for both sides when we consider the pressure the South Korean president is under as well.

Just another possible cover for the inevitable “accidental” (or likely intentional) release and catastrophic spillover damage of modern techno-bio-terrorism and viral nanotechnology.

Trillions upon trillions pissed away in antagonistic foreign wars while the homeland is left completely defenseless against these modern threats, and most Americans, even the more enlightened among our modern “counter-culture,” are too terrified or distracted to recognize it.

No airport screen or pat down will detect this. It is the greatest threat we have ever faced. Far greater than the occasional shoe bomber, this will (mark my words) result in the deaths of more human beings than Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined, times ten.

(Not to mention the insidious ways it will be used for non-lethal manipulation.)

So, what did you expect was going to happen? Ignore the problem and it will go away? Oh, its not so bad, until it is?

For the first time in human history we’d have a big red doomsday button of ultimate power and NOT be compelled to use it?

Or course we won't do anything. We never do anything until it bites us once. Only problem is, one bite from this and we get no second chances.

But that's OK, because we all know, slavery is more important than survival. Certainly more important than doing the hard work that would be necessary to do anything about this.

So, we can’t built a national public housing infrastructure that incorporates green-paradigm engineering and some minimal protection against this critical vulnerability.

That would give people the option not to work! Better we all die!

reply to post by Regensturm


Well according to last night DPKR tv news, the Korean ``crisis`` was only the 8th item on the news.... not to mention Kim and his son were at a musical show yesterday...

If Little Kim really wanted war, he would crank up the war propaganda to crazy levels on the news and visit military sites/troops/DMZ.... but that's not what he's doing.

So me thinks the North Korean leadership doesn't want war, they just want food to keep their regime in place and this bombardment of the island is exactly aimed at that... that and having his son gain credibility among the generals.

And an item which everyone seem to have forgotten.. from wikileak.

Thinking about an eventual collapse of North Korea: American and South Korean officials have discussed the prospects for a unified Korea, should the North’s economic troubles and political transition lead the state to implode. The South Koreans even considered commercial inducements to China, according to the American ambassador to Seoul. She told Washington in February that South Korean officials believe that the right business deals would “help salve” China’s “concerns about living with a reunified Korea” that is in a “benign alliance” with the United States.

There's been lots of talks about the United Korea subject... it seems SK-US think they can force China to allow it if they give them enough business deals... which might just work... but China leadership would have to make a choice...

Choice 1 : US bases on your border + an United Korea on your border + and business deals
or
Choice 2 : Spend billions of $ + hundreds of thousands of troops in a military adventure against North Korea and possibly the whole Korean peninsula + UN forces

Choice 1 gives you a military threat + economic perks
Choice 2 remove the military threat + economic cost + army cost

Depends on how far in the future China plans.

SO HERE IT IS.

North Korea is warning the South THAT THEY WILL RETALIATE IF THE SOUTH CONDUCTS THE DRILL ... LIKE THEY SAID ON AUGUST 23 about the November 23 drill.

AP quoting an South Korean JCS official saying artillery will be fired into waters SW from Yeonpyeong, not toward

North Korea threatens any shells fired from Yeonpyeong "bound to fall in our territorial waters," warning it'lll fire back.

So... IF SOUTH KOREA GOES AHEAD WITH THE DRILL, IT'S WAR.

UPDATE : South Korea just announced they are delaying the drill for now.

Yonhap: #ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff office says artillery drill scheduled for Tuesday on Yeonpyeong will be delayed. #Koreas 18 minutes ago via TweetDeck

Potentially good news, for now:

South Korea's military cancels live-fire artillery exercise planned for Tuesday on island targeted by North Korea; no reason announced - AP

Yonhap: #ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff office says artillery drill scheduled for Tuesday on Yeonpyeong will be delayed. #Koreas

So they live fire on Yeonpyeong has been "delayed".

However when they eventually go ahead here is NK's predictable response:

RT @egalite_twitted: #DPRK threatens any shells fired from Yeonpyeong "bound to fall in our territorial waters," warning it'lll fire back.

However it seems the island is being prepared for some big miltiary retaliation if needed:

Meanwhile, officials tell Yonhap powerful multi launch rocket systems are being deployed on Yeonpyeong. Isle is being heavily fortified.

Yeah it's DELAYED... because of BAD WEATHER.... hopefully China forces the North to back down before weather clears up.

So all that stop those two nutjobs from going to war : journalists and weather... this world is insane.

The big question now is -

Why did South Korea delay these live fire artillery exercises on Yeonpyeong Island and, more importantly, when will they happen?

EDIT - Bad weather it seems? I was hoping more due to some common sense! If they go ahead more lives will be lost. No doubt.


There also seems to be a growing rift between SK/Japan and China...

Japan's foreign minister tells Wall Street Journal that holding six-party talks 'only because North Korea has gone amok' is 'unacceptable'

reply to post by jonny2410

Japan's foreign minister tells Wall Street Journal that holding six-party talks 'only because North Korea has gone amok' is 'unacceptable'

Well Japan-SK are right. You can't just reward the North for bombing the South... it would only encourage them.

Thing is I don't believe in the whole ``weather`` made us cancel our exercises. From the satellite image, there's no freaking cloud over all Korea... and from my experience, THEY NEVER CANCEL MILITARY DRILLS OVER WEATHER. Never.

So me thinks there's heavy talking behind the scene by China telling them to stop their BS till they at least talk to the North Korean delegation.

Originally posted by Vitchilo

Well according to last night DPKR tv news, the Korean ``crisis`` was only the 8th item on the news.... not to mention Kim and his son were at a musical show yesterday...

That's a portrayal of "business as normal" to the North Korean public at a time of reports of instability.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
If Little Kim really wanted war, he would crank up the war propaganda to crazy levels on the news and visit military sites/troops/DMZ.... but that's not what he's doing.

So me thinks the North Korean leadership doesn't want war, they just want food to keep their regime in place and this bombardment of the island is exactly aimed at that... that and having his son gain credibility among the generals.

Indeed, North Korea don't war, but on the other hand, they wish to show how "strong" they are by responding to perceived violations of it's territory, and hoping to unite the populace behind the regime when North Korea responds forcefully to said perceived violations of it's territory.

If North Korea do not respond, the regime may fear also that it's population views them as weak and ripe for possible toppling.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
And an item which everyone seem to have forgotten.. from wikileak.

Thinking about an eventual collapse of North Korea: American and South Korean officials have discussed the prospects for a unified Korea, should the North’s economic troubles and political transition lead the state to implode. The South Koreans even considered commercial inducements to China, according to the American ambassador to Seoul. She told Washington in February that South Korean officials believe that the right business deals would “help salve” China’s “concerns about living with a reunified Korea” that is in a “benign alliance” with the United States.

There's been lots of talks about the United Korea subject... it seems SK-US think they can force China to allow it if they give them enough business deals... which might just work... but China leadership would have to make a choice...

It depends on the Old Guard within the Chinese Government and The New Guard within the Chinese government and who prevails on the matter.

The Old Guard see ties with North Korea as having been forged in blood in The Korean War, the fact that China fought alongside North Korea, and has historically supported North Korea since it's formation, and see South Korea as a client of the US = US influence and military bases on the Chinese border.

The New Guard sees North Korea as a liability to Chinese interests, an embarrassment, and think they should be cut loose in favour of economic ties with South Korea.

A United Korea governed South Korea-style would be hard for The New Guard to present to The Old Guard as acceptable unless it was presented as an opportunity for there to be Chinese relations with a Chinese-friendly stronger Korea as an ally at the expense of the US.

I think US military bases, in a US-friendly stronger and one Korea on the Chinese border, would be too much for the Old Guard to take, and I think The New Guard may say to the Old Guard that better relations with South Korea now, would forment close relations with a United Korea that is allies with China later, should North Korea collapse and South Kore prevail over a United Korea.

Originally posted by Vitchilo

AP quoting an South Korean JCS official saying artillery will be fired into waters SW from Yeonpyeong, not toward

North Korea threatens any shells fired from Yeonpyeong "bound to fall in our territorial waters," warning it'lll fire back.

And that's why South Korea may have stopped their drill. North Korea appears to have given a public warning they would retaliate if South Korean shells were fired from Yeonpyeong and landed in their waters.

South Korea, if seen to publically ignoring that public North Korean warning, would be seen as being the one doing the provoking, akin to someone publically prodding a bee hive and ignoring the sign saying "Don't poke the bee hive or you get stung."

If North Korea had not given that warning, South Korea would have gone ahead with the firing it seems.

South Korea, if seen to publically ignoring that public North Korean warning, would be seen as being the one doing the provoking, akin to someone publically prodding a bee hive and ignoring the sign saying "Don't poke the bee hive or you get stung."

If North Korea had not given that warning, South Korea would have gone ahead with the firing it seems.

Yep...last time nobody was watching the North Korean news... and North Korea warned them of the same thing... This time, everybody is watching...

But you know, they might be crazy enough to do it anyway. Time will tell.

Bit more detail on the delayed drills, they will go ahead...

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea's military announced provocative new artillery drills on the front-line island shelled in a deadly North Korean attack, then immediately postponed them Monday in a sign of disarray hours after the president vowed to get tough on the North.

Similar live-fire maneuvers by South Korean troops one week earlier triggered the North's bombardment that decimated parts of Yeonpyeong Island, killed four people and drew return fire in a clash that set the region on edge. The new drills originally planned for Tuesday could have had even higher stakes: South Korean and American warships are currently engaged in separate military exercises in waters to the south.

Officials at the Joint Chiefs of Staff told The Associated Press on Monday that the latest drills were postponed after the marine unit on the island mistakenly announced them without getting final approval from higher military authorities. The cancelation had nothing to do with North Korea, and the drills will take place later, one official said. The officials spoke on condition of , citing agency rules.

Yeonpyeong Island is being taken over by the military it seems and significantly beefed up.

Yeonpyeong Island, normally home to about 1,300 civilian residents, was declared a special security area Monday, which could pave the way for a forced evacuation the 300 residents, journalists and officials still left on the island.

On Yeonpyeong, the military has added long-range artillery guns, doubling the amount of K-9 howitzers to 12, and multiple rocket launchers, the Yonhap news agency reported, citing unnamed military officials.

Military trucks carrying what appeared to be multiple rocket launchers were seen heading to a marine base on the island Monday.

[url=http://hosted2.ap.org/APDefault/8ef5320729ce4298abefc1903704c7d5/Article_2010-11-29-AS-Koreas-Clash/id-4ac62105437f420383db88d5514f7198]Link[/url ]

Officials at the Joint Chiefs of Staff told The Associated Press on Monday that the latest drills were postponed after the marine unit on the island mistakenly announced them without getting final approval from higher military authorities. The cancelation had nothing to do with North Korea, and the drills will take place later, one official said. The officials spoke on condition of , citing agency rules.

So they are not DELAYED... they were planned for later...

As I said 2 days ago... in mid-December.

So the question now... will the US carrier group still be in the area when they take place to back the South if things go bad?

Two speechs coming up.

Hillary Clinton at 10.15AM... subject unknown.

Obama at 11.35AM... (probably about North Korea)...

Maybe he'll announce the return to talks...

Originally posted by minkey53

Originally posted by ni91ck

N.Korea 'Has 180,000 Special Forces Ready to Cross into South'

North Korea operates 40,000 special forces troops, including the 11th or "Storm" Corps whose mission is to infiltrate South Korea and create havoc in case of war. It also has around 10,000 naval special forces and around 5,000 air force soldiers who can cross the border if a war breaks out.

The figures were revealed in a speech by former South Korean commander of special operations Kim Yun-suk to fellow veterans at the War Memorial in Seoul.

Kim said the Storm Corps, which has been trained to stir up confusion behind enemy lines, is composed of four light infantry, seven airborne and three sniper brigades. And the 4th Corps special forces, stationed on the Ongjin Peninsula close to South Korea's Baeknyeong Islands in the West Sea, consists of 600 scout troops, 600 naval reconnaissance soldiers and around 1,800 naval forces.

More here:


english.chosun.com...

The moment the NK Special Troops enter the DMZ, just let rip with everything you got, simple!

They would be sitting ducks and isn't the DMZ full of land mines?

So basically, Mr Kim, your troops will be toast!

You do know they have a whole lot of tunnels, don't you?

We might not even see them coming.

Originally posted by Aslpride

Apparently the drill has been canceled for today due to ``bad weather``... really?
US-South Korea drill off due to bad weather

In some cases, journalists were prevented from filming, and the full details behind the cancellation were unclear.

edit on 28-11-2010 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

Actually, it's bad weather and they can't show their power to NK. What's point to waste their energy if NK can't see their power to be feared? That's why it was canceled.

edit on 29-11-2010 by Aslpride because: (no reason given)

The bad weather excuse rings really hollow. I'm sure China and North Korea figured this out too.

reply to post by Vitchilo


I'm more curious as to what Hillary will have to say than Obama, lol. I wonder if it will be in relation to this NK/SK situation, or if it will be about the cables.