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Originally posted by Vesica
Originally posted by The_Liberator
Finally, after 2 years of exhaustive study, I am satisfied that I have a complete picture of exactly what is going on….and my conclusions are disturbing.
So after two years of study you have an master degree and you are the expert in this field? Everyone who doesn´t agree with you is therefor wrong?
Pretty much, yes. Unfortunately (I would love to be wrong on this topic).
Originally posted by Clavicula
"Could", "Possible", "may". Typical sensationalism that all to often occur in climate science. Scare stories to make the research grants coming. I guess the methane has been there for a long time throug varying climate conditions like the holocene optimum. It did not occur then so why should it occur now?
Originally posted by Mykahel
reply to post by The Sword
Ah, but you have to look at it from the other perspective too, because there are plenty of scientists that deny global warming. Hardly anyone here is going to be an expert on the subject, and so they really don't have the knowledge or authority to claim anything a hoax (though they are still welcome to express their opinions). At the same time nobody without the proper education and knowledge can really claim this to be a fact either.
I believe in climate change, but I also believe it is completely natural and there is nothing we can do about it.
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Your masters were caught red handed, and your main idol Jones himself even thought about suicide, shame he didn't get it over with, he would have done mankind a big favor...
Give it up...edit on 5-11-2010 by ElectricUniverse because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by ElectricUniverseThose of us who know by now that the AGW/Global Warming religion is nothing more than a scam know very well the difference between NATURAL Climate Change, and the BS that is AGW/Global Warming...
Originally posted by smurfy
You are telling me what I already know about the east siberian shelf, (the report is already out early this year btw) Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov would not have found anything in the east siberian shelf in the 1990's because they only started studying the shelf, which is a [shallow sea], (submerged land) in 2003-2008. Before that any studies ended at the coastline! Now in the last three years the seasonal melt, (measured in volume of water) has declined, with the melt sharply tailing off in September, in other words it is refreezing much faster than it had been previous and therefore the frozen period is becoming longer again, so that is a little good news, and I am just the messenger. The main point of my "thrust" therefore, is that no-one knows how long methane has been escaping from the east siberian shelf prior to 2003, and that the original fractures could well have been due to a major earthquake in that region and that all the methane that has escaped from there could have been converted to CO2 and added to the atmosphere in an immeasurable way, immeasurable, since no-one knew about it. Escaping methane is not a rare event either, and is theorised as means of sinking ships. Also there are other theories as to exactly how methane does escape even in deep water, geothermal heat is a "hot" one. So I'm afraid it is the science that is not cut and dried by a long chalk. It is a known phenomenon that CO2 concentration rises AFTER a ground temperature rise, it always lags behind, so a sudden increase of methane, caused by natural events like earthquakes or geothermal heat, is much more likely the culprit than AGW. Much more info needed, you probably know that yourself.edit on 5-11-2010 by smurfy because: grammar
Originally posted by lawlb0t
Both sides are too busy fighting to realize our entire solar system is experiencing changes. Planetary climate change is real, is it caused by humans? No. Are we still treating the planet like a garbage dump? Yes. Is the climate change real? Yes. Something is happening, we just don't know precisely.
Originally posted by mc_squared
Now do you realize that in this modern day and age of satellites and pyranometers and other fancy gadgets scientists have they in fact pay very close attention to what comes out of the Sun?
And the general consensus is over the last 30+ years of significant terrestrial warming our personal heatlamp has actually shown a cooling trend?
In what could be the simplest explanation for one component of global warming, a new study shows the Sun's radiation has increased by .05 percent per decade since the late 1970s.
The increase would only be significant to Earth's climate if it has been going on for a century or more, said study leader Richard Willson, a Columbia University researcher also affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
The Sun's increasing output has only been monitored with precision since satellite technology allowed necessary observations. Willson is not sure if the trend extends further back in time, but other studies suggest it does.
"This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change," Willson said.
In a NASA-funded study recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, Willson and his colleagues speculate on the possible history of the trend based on data collected in the pre-satellite era.
...
Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
Journal Climate Dynamics
Publisher Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
ISSN 0930-7575 (Print) 1432-0894 (Online)
Issue Volume 24, Numbers 7-8 / June, 2005
DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0020-9
Pages 771-780
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Monday, May 02, 2005
PDF (702.7 KB)HTMLFree Preview
Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
S. M. Dean1 , B. N. Lawrence2, R. G. Grainger1 and D. N. Heuff3
(1) Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK
(2) British Atmospheric Data Centre, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxfordshire, UK
(3) Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Received: 13 September 2004 Accepted: 25 February 2005 Published online: 27 April 2005
Abstract Observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatalogy Project (ISCCP) are used to demonstrate that the 19-level HadAM3 version of the United Kingdom Met Office Unified Model does not simulate sufficient high cloud over land. By using low-altitude winds, from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis from 1979 to 1994 (ERA-15) to predict the areas of maximum likelihood of orographic wave generation, it is shown that much of the deficiency is likely to be due to the lack of a representation of the orographic cirrus generated by sub-grid scale orography. It is probable that this is a problem in most GCMs.
The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville.
Instead of creating more clouds, individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds, says Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in UAHuntsville's Earth System Science Center.
That was not what he expected to find.
"All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds, which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases," he said. "That amplification is a positive feedback. What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback. As the tropical atmosphere warms, cirrus clouds decrease. That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space."
The results of this research were published today in the American Geophysical Union's "Geophysical Research Letters" on-line edition. The paper was co-authored by UAHuntsville's Dr. John R. Christy and Dr. W. Danny Braswell, and Dr. Justin Hnilo of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA.
WASHINGTON - A United Nations climate change conference in Poland is about to get a surprise from 650 leading scientists who scoff at doomsday reports of man-made global warming - labeling them variously a lie, a hoax and part of a new religion.
Later today, their voices will be heard in a U.S. Senate minority report quoting the scientists, many of whom are current and former members of the U.N.'s own Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
About 250 of the scientists quoted in the report have joined the dissenting scientists in the last year alone.
In fact, the total number of scientists represented in the report is 12 times the number of U.N. scientists who authored the official IPCC 2007 report.
Here are some choice excerpts from the report:
* "I am a skeptic ... . Global warming has become a new religion." -- Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.
* "Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly ... . As a scientist I remain skeptical." -- Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a Ph.D. in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called "among the most pre-eminent scientists of the last 100 years."
* Warming fears are the "worst scientific scandal in the history ... . When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists." -- U.N. IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning Ph.D. environmental physical chemist.
* "The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn't listen to others. It doesn't have open minds ... . I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists." -- Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the U.N.-supported International Year of the Planet.
* "The models and forecasts of the U.N. IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity." -- Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
* "It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don't buy into anthropogenic global warming." -- U.S. Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
* "Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapor and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will." -- Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, New Zealand.
* "After reading [U.N. IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet." -- Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an associate editor of Monthly Weather Review.
* "For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" -- Geologist Dr. David Gee, the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer-reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.
* "Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp ... . Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact." -- Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch U.N. IPCC committee.
* "Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly (from promoting warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined." -- Atmospheric physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh, Pa.
* "Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense ... . The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning." -- Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.
* "CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another ... . Every scientist knows this, but it doesn't pay to say so ... . Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver's seat and developing nations walking barefoot." -- Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan.
* "The [global warming] scaremongering has its justification in the fact that it is something that generates funds." -- Award-winning Paleontologist Dr. Eduardo Tonni, of the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology Department at the University of La Plata.
The report also includes new peer-reviewed scientific studies and analyses refuting man-made warming fears and a climate developments that contradict the theory.
On-line Publication Documentation System for Stockholm University
Full DescriptionUpdate record
Publication type: Article in journal (Reviewed scientific)
Author: Grudd, H (Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology)
Title: Torneträsk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers
In: Climate Dynamics
Publisher: Springer, Berlin / Heidelberg
Volume: 31
Pages: 843-857
Year: 2008
Available: 2009-01-30
ISSN: 1432-0894
Department: Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology
Language: English [en]
Subject: Physical geography, Climatology
Abstract: This paper presents updated tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) from Torneträsk in northern Sweden, now covering the period ad 500–2004. By including data from relatively young trees for the most recent period, a previously noted decline in recent MXD is eliminated. Non-climatological growth trends in the data are removed using Regional Curve Standardization (RCS), thus producing TRW and MXD chronologies with preserved low-frequency variability. The chronologies are calibrated using local and regional instrumental climate records. A bootstrapped response function analysis using regional climate data shows that tree growth is forced by April–August temperatures and that the regression weights for MXD are much stronger than for TRW. The robustness of the reconstruction equation is verified by independent temperature data and shows that 63–64% of the instrumental inter-annual variation is captured by the tree-ring data. This is a significant improvement compared to previously published reconstructions based on tree-ring data from Torneträsk. A divergence phenomenon around ad 1800, expressed as an increase in TRW that is not paralleled by temperature and MXD, is most likely an effect of major changes in the density of the pine population at this northern tree-line site. The bias introduced by this TRW phenomenon is assessed by producing a summer temperature reconstruction based on MXD exclusively. The new data show generally higher temperature estimates than previous reconstructions based on Torneträsk tree-ring data. The late-twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record: On decadal-to-centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer. The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century (p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Torneträsk suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized.
Originally posted by The_Liberator
Incorrect:
www.skepticalscience.com...
Science News
Antarctic Science (2003), 15:2:173-173 Cambridge University Press
Copyright © Antarctic Science Ltd 2003
doi:10.1017/S0954102003001305
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Editorial
Galactic energy and its role in a changing Earth
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALAN P.M. VAUGHAN
Proposed climate change mechanisms are many and various but generally attributable to our part of the solar system. They usually focus on temperature changes driven either by local processes such as variations in oceanic circulation, or, levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, or by global processes such as variations in received solar energy linked to changes in the parameters of the Earth's rotation and orbit or solar activity. However, two recent papers have suggested that we may need to look outside the Earth System and even outside our local planetary system for the possible origins of climate change, both on a decadal scale and over longer timescales of hundreds of millions of years. In each case, the galactic cosmic ray flux and its potential effects on cloud formation is considered to be the culprit.
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* UN advisory group on climate change submits report
STAFF WRITER 14:17 HRS IST
Betwa Sharma
United Nations, Nov 6 (PTI) Three weeks ahead of the Cancun Climate Change Conference, a high-level UN advisory group has presented a report with suggestions to come up with USD 100 billion a year by 2020, including tax on international flights, for poor countries to combat global warming.
The 21-member advisory group is co-chaired by Prime Ministers Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia and Jens Stoltenberg of Norway. The group was set up in February and includes Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia, philanthropist George Soros and British academic Nicholas Stern.
"The Advisory Group has given us a path. It is now up to Governments to consider the options and to act," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told journalists.
"This is not about charity. It is about doing the right thing for those who are suffering most from a crisis that they did least to cause," he said.
Published on 12-10-2009
By Jurriaan Maessen
“The governments of Europe, the United States, and Japan are unlikely to negotiate a social-democratic pattern of globalization – unless their hands are forced by a popular movement or a catastrophe, such as another Great Depression or ecological disaster“
Richard Sandbrook, Closing the Circle: Democratization and Development in Africa, Zed Books limited, London, 2000.
A 1991 policy paper prepared for the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) by self-described ‘ecosocioeconomist’ professor Ignacy Sachs outlines a strategy for the transfer of wealth in name of the environment to be implemented in the course of 35 to 40 years. As it turns out, it is a visionary paper describing phase by phase the road to world dictatorship. As the professor states in the paper:
“To be meaningful, the strategies should cover the time-span of several decades. Thirty-five to forty years seems a good compromise between the need to give enough time to the postulated transformations and the uncertainties brought about by the lengthening of the time-span.“
In his paper “The Next 40 Years: Transition Strategies to the Virtuous Green Path: North/South/East/Global“, Sachs accurately describes not only the intended time-span to bring about a global society, but also what steps should be taken to ensure “population stabilization”:
“In order to stabilize the populations of the South by means other than wars or epidemics, mere campaigning for birth control and distributing of contraceptives has proved fairly inefficient.“
In the first part of the (in retrospect) bizarrely accurate description of the years to come, Sachs points out redistribution of wealth is the only viable path towards population stabilization and- as he calls it- a “virtuous green world”. The professor:
“The way out from the double bind of poverty and environmental disruption calls for a fairly long period of more economic growth to sustain the transition strategies towards the virtuous green path of what has been called in Stockholm ecodevelopement and has since changed its name in Anglo-Saxon countries to sustainable development.”
“(…) a fair degree of agreement seems to exist, therefore, about the ideal development path to be followed so long as we do not manage to stabilize the world population and, at the same time, sharply reduce the inequalities prevailing today.”
“The bolder the steps taken in the near future”, Sachs asserts, “the shorter will be the time span that separates us from a steady state. Radical solutions must address to the roots of the problem and not to its symptoms. Theoretically, the transition could be made shorter by measures of redistribution of assets and income.”
Sachs points to the political difficulties of such proposals being implemented (because free humanity tends to distrust any national government let alone transnational government to redistribute its well-earned wealth). He therefore proposes these measures to be implemented gradually, following a meticulously planned strategy:
“The pragmatic prospect is one of transition extending itself over several decades.”
In the second sub-chapter “The Five Dimensions of Ecodevelopment”, professor Sachs sums up the main dimensions of this carefully outlined move to make Agenda 21 a very real future prospect. The first dimension he touches upon is “Social Sustainability“:
“The aim is to build a civilization of being within greater equity in asset and income distribution, so as to improve substantially the entitlements of the broad masses of population and of reduce the gap in standards of living between the have and the have nots.”
This of course means, reducing the standards of living in “The North” (U.S., Europe) and upgrading those of the developing nations (”The South and The East”). This would have to be realized through what Sachs calls “Economic Sustainability“: “made possible by a more efficient allocation and management of resources and a steady flow of public and private investment.”
The third dimension described by the professor is “Ecological Sustainability” which, among other things, limits “the consumption of fossile fuels and other easily depletable or environmentally harmful products, substituting them by renewable and/or plentiful and environmentally friendly resources, reducing the volume of pollutants by means of energy and resource conservation and recycling and, last but not least, promoting self-constraint in material consumption on part of the rich countries and of the privileged social strata all over the world;”
In order to make this happen Sachs stresses the need of “defining the rules for adequate environmental protection, designing the institutional machinery and choosing the mix of economic, legal and administrative instruments necessary for the implementation of environmental policies.”
........
firm conclusions about whether the present changes involve a long-term trend or a relatively brief aberration should come with continued monitoring into the next solar minimum, expected around 2006.
Originally posted by mc_squared
reply to post by The_Liberator
Hey The_Liberator - since you're new to ATS I thought I should officially introduce you to our long-time resident climate troll.
...
Richard Wilson's study that found solar activity to be increasing (a whopping 0.05%!) for two decades from the late 70's. If he had bothered reading his own link in it's entirety, he might've noticed it also said
Originally posted by The_Liberator
reply to post by arufon
I think it goes beyond that for most of the deniers on here. For some of them, reality is too scary to confront so it's easier to deny it...even if that means distorting the truth.
Others lack the ability to say, "I was wrong". You can see that over and over in their threads. No matter what evidence they are presented with, no matter how obviously they are debunked, they will just twist and turn facts in every which way to avoid being "wrong".
Haven't you ever known someone like that in real life? It is often deeply ingrained into their personality so deep that they don't even realize it. In fact, more often than not, they accuse US as being incapable of being wrong (projection).
Having a debate with someone like that is a dead end every time.
Originally posted by The_Liberator
reply to post by arufon
I think it goes beyond that for most of the deniers on here. For some of them, reality is too scary to confront so it's easier to deny it...even if that means distorting the truth.
Originally posted by arufon
Originally posted by The_Liberator
reply to post by arufon
I think it goes beyond that for most of the deniers on here. For some of them, reality is too scary to confront so it's easier to deny it...even if that means distorting the truth.
i often wonder if the GW deniers have any clue as to the repurcussions of steadily increasing the atmosphere's
CO2 level...
>>The present level [of atmospheric CO2] is higher than at any time during the last 800 thousand years, and likely higher than in the past 20 million years
That does not mean industrial pollution has not been a significant factor, Willson cautioned.
firm conclusions about whether the present changes involve a long-term trend or a relatively brief aberration should come with continued monitoring into the next solar minimum, expected around 2006.
admittedly I'm a paranoid skeptic: We exhale C02; I find it exceedingly dangerous to handover any absolute power to a world body to regulate what is essentially a Human exhalation. ridiculous right??
WHAT CAN WE DO?