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StealthyKat, the faulted (and possibly lava beds) were formed millions of years ago. For lava to be extruded from a volcano, there has to be an eruption (either violent or the less violent continuous flow type). At the moment I have not seen any seismic data/ sections or heard of reported seismic activities to suggest active volcanic activities. The exposed rock outcrops is the first I have seen and it does make geological sense now what is happening here. But for hot lava volcanic activities (real magma lava), I think the USGS would have been alerting us already (hope I am right on this). But the seismic geophone (seismic reader you called it) evidence is intriguing. If BP is planting "seabed geophones" on the seabed, then I would really think we are in very serious trouble for BP to be monitoring for seismic activities here. From what I had read, the Gulf is supposed to be dormant and not tectonically active. I am not saying it isn't since we cannot be sure from the blurred picture or it could be just a piece or part of the "grouting equipment" left in place.
Could you (don't be worried about panicking me) describe the worst case scenario?
Eth, I am saving this for future posting but since you asked, I will briefly touch on it. As you know, the reservoirs are capped by seal formations - mostly shale and many are structural traps (fault controlled). They are in equilibrium prior to the well reaching the reservoir. It is true that oil do not flow through faults cutting thru shale formation. The Macondo wells would not be having so many problems if the structure had been gentle and uniform. So in the worst case scenario (geological wise) as illustrated by my previous geological model, you already have a well-lubricated (freely flowing) hydraulic aquifer adjacent to the S20BC well. After flowing for at least 5 months, do you think the well that penetrated the reservoir is going to be a nice wellbore with no cave-ins?
Brine mixed with gas is a very effective erosion agent. Shale or Clay no matter how hard, cannot withstand water on contact. The gas provide the pressurised element. Given the freely lubricating flow, the well bore would have enlarged several times and new pathways permeated to the adjacent faults. The vertical structure I suspected is a Allochthonous Salt structure. It provides the initial pathway for the mud volcano to build on. The little mole hill I spoke of is the mud volcano hill built on top of the broad gentle uplifted landform.
I do not think BP was successful in the Relief well Kill at the bottom of the well. If you put 1 plus 1, you get a pretty good idea what I am talking about.
The upper formation and Quarternary Sediment are even more fragile. When all that oil get to the upper strata, more damage would be done. See my comments to Mac Mackenzie - www.facebook.com... .
Sooner or later the erosion will sets at the toes of the shelf edge escarpment. I hope a smaller submarine landslide is triggered first to awaken and warn the public. But by then it would have been too late to remedy the situation as the problems had already set too deep.
If the hydrate deposits above the stabilisation zone are as enormous as what the scientists think, the amount of methane gas vaporised by the warming oil would be a global warming problem. Let's not talk about Abiotic oil yet.
If we do not prosecute BP over the crime against humanity here, other oil companies would not sit up and tighten their failing HSE standards. The chances on another oil disaster is imminent. With so many knock-out punches coming online, you think Mother Nature stands a chance. Somebody wrote earlier that Nature would heal itself. So it is not only a question of this disaster but the implications of others to come.
#21.10 - Thu Oct 14, 2010 11:28 AM PDT