Volcanos in Iceland, possible alarm?

reply to post by sidan


I was waiting to see if our host could find anything in Iceland about notifications and it seems there is very little.

Despite the fact that the Met Office has been castigated by some for causing air traffic to come to a standstill they are still the best source for the UK as to what might be in store in terms of weather/ash for the UK. (Personally I think they did the right thing. Volcanic ash is not a good ingredient for jet engines.)

Basically you need 4 sites to determine what is going on:

• The Icelandic Weather Service
  
• London VAAC (Not currently being updated)
  
• The surface pressure forecast from The Met
  
• The most important of all - ATS (The informed threads anyway)
  

Scotland's main problem in the event of a big one will be Ash, followed by fluorine - that is after the sulphur has got you of course

(Pet hate: Fluoride. There is only one toothpaste that does not have it which is Euthymol - but it has Sorbitol. You can't win!)

In addition to the VAAC ash advisories you can follow the ASH in more or less realtime using the Eumetsat ASH RGB Composite data. (A graphic)

This of course only shows what has happened, but can be a useful tool to determine for yourself the accuracy of information you are being fed. I download the ash data for iceland every day and have been doing so since Eyja got frisky.

If you want an automated program to do this (and you actually want to store the data) then take a look at my MetSatGetter program [FREE]. See my signature for the link to my web site. There are other tools out there on the web which allow you to view but do not store the info. (I choose to store the ASH, IR, MPE (Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimate) and Visuals for Western Europe every day)

By the way if you do look at my site don't bother to download the QuakeData program [FREE] as it is due to have a HUGE upgrade in a few days which will include automated downloading of Icelandic earthquake data, quake maps , GPS plots etc. I will let you know when it is available.

Edit to add:


Dedicated Hekla web page with web cam pics and tons of other info - wind speeds, temperature etc. Combine this with Jon Friman's helicorder page and that is Hekla pretty well covered!

You can also get to the helicorder page from the Hekla site

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/20ceca4c5212.png[/atsimg]

[edit on 28/6/2010 by PuterMan]

There was a small glasier melt last week in Skaftarjokull wich is in the south western part of vatnajökull, there are basicly two caldera´s in that area , the western one wich is relativly small and that flood originated from it, but yeasterday there was another flood started by the larger caldera and it is said that it should peak later tonight. The flood started out relativly small with a outburst of 500cubic meters per sec , and is now around 1300 cubic meters per sec, so at the moment it is adding to itself.

These types of floods happen every year though, and are considerd wery normal as summer begins. I will add info as this event happens , but for now im gonna get some sleep. Also i might note there has been incresed activity around Askja and some stronger earthquakes above the northen shoreline.

Link to the earthquake reports
en.vedur.is...

And a link to show you the location of Skaftárjökull
travelingluck.com...

Edit,, just found a source wich descripes the news in english. just couldn´t go to sleep before i would atleast show you a report.
www.icelandreview.com...

[edit on 28-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

Just watched a documentory about eyjafjallajökull and the chance of katla erupting.. This video also shows the statement of our president and it also explains the affect the ash would have on the europe.

Part1

Part2

Part3

Part4

Part5





[edit on 28-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

reply to post by Spacedman13


Thank you for the links to the videos.

No reflection on you, these are the typical MSM hype and over-reaction to something that has been happening for centuries, but which they have only just become aware of.

:BEGIN RANT

I was appalled to hear a geologist (a Scotsman I think) working for Iceland refer to the swarm under Eyjafjoll prior to the first eruption as ' terrifying'. 'Interesting', 'Unusual', 'Concerning', 'Worrying' perhaps but NOT 'Terrifying' He is young and has obviously been influenced by all the hype, however in my opinion he has no place as a geologist using that word. Just what impression does he think that has on others? OMG the geologist is terrified! Panic! Panic! Panic!

The whole of the documentary seemed more concerned with how much this cost and not so much with the effect on the people.

At one point Iceland is the most volcanic place on the planet, and then when it suits the hype Kamchatka is the most volcanic place. Billions for this, billions for that, OMG the poor airlines etc, etc. Not once did I hear them say anything that I could interpret as concern for the people other than that it would 'affect' them. If you have read my earlier post with the descriptions of the effect on the people you will understand where I am coming from. I care not one jot about the airlines and their profits. It is high time they ceased their polluting and unnecessary business anyway. Let's get back to airships and ships and a calmer way of life. Do we actually need food to be flown in? No. I don't need to eat tomatoes in January. I can enjoy them in season locally grown. (Just one example)

Yes of course there is a risk, but like the twisting of your President's words from (précis) "Look Katla is going to blow sometime, you should be ready" to "Katla is about to blow" the whole documentary is full of suggestive IF scenarios which have some basis of truth but which have been expanded beyond what is reasonable.

All of a sudden Kamchatka is going to be a super volcano? Just where does that idea spring from?. There is no plume under Kamchatka. Actually if the Icelandic Plume theory is correct Iceland has far more potential to be a super volcano that Kamchatka.

The inference was that for example Laki in producing sufficient lava to cover London 10 metres deep, did so explosively. This leaves people with the idea of a massive highly explosive eruption, whereas whilst obviously there was an explosive content at Laki, it was a fissure eruption - on the style of the Hawaiian volcanoes but larger.

Katla will erupt some time in the future, there is no doubt about that. This does not actually mean that the erupt WILL be 10 times larger than Eyja. You cannot state that. There is a certain amount of evidence to suggest crystallisation of the magma chamber beneath Katla according to some geologists, and if that was the case an eruption at Katla may be no worse than Eyja. My point here is that we don't know. You cannot state it will be 10 times worse as it may not.

Personally my concern would be at this time for something to occur in the Vatnajokull area or to the North of there.

:END RANT

I ran out of steam. I could find lots more to say but......

Apart from that it was nice to see the scenery!

reply to post by PuterMan


Yeah , i agree there this video does allthough promote "scaremongering" it does paint a relativly good picture about the the activity and number of volcano eruptions we have. Allthough i was waiting the whole time for him to point out another volcanos then katla, (well he did, but only talked about the effects of laki without talking about activity around it)it seemd a bit pointless always coming back to katla but never really explaining the effect of a of a eruption from it untill the end of the video, and did so refering to a worst case scenario. Another perfect storm scenario.

It was a fun watch though.
And it did explain how the ash had effects on the flight paths over europe and how it would travel with the jet streams, in wich there was a question about erlier in the thread.

Soo mutch information into the vast empty space that is my head. I must go sleep now and dream of worst case scenarios, so i will wake up happy and relieved.


And by the way, here is a update from the Skaftár glacier melt,,

It is still escalating scientist say, and they say it reached it´s peak yeasterday yet they say it is still rising,, (contridicting themselfs) they also said the flood would die out yeasterday evening , and now they are saying it will die out this evening. (Not so great at guessing about how these events will turn out)

But here is something a scientist can not get wrong
The scientists are saying that this is the largest flood in the rivers history for the past 55 years. Pretty funny when the only facts the scientist can say is history

As stated in the previus post about this this flood is originated from the eastern caldera in Skaftársjökull in south western Vatnajökull, in wich there are 2 caldera´s on that part of the glasier, 1 smaller one that coused a minor flood last week, and now this flood coused byt the larger caldera.

Here´s the link, but it is in icelandic , so unless u intend to use google translate the link is useless except for the pretty pic.
visir.is...

[edit on 29-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

reply to post by Spacedman13


Enjoy a wonderful Google style mistranslation of the page. It is always worth doing these as they can be such a laugh. Almost as much fun as the BBC pronunciations of Eyjafjallajokull

Re this and the video, I said in the post

Personally my concern would be at this time for something to occur in the Vatnajokull area or to the North of there.

I have said for some time now that Vatnajokull is the area to watch - possibly Bardabunga, but the scenario in my head includes Hekla not Katla. We shall see.

Am I right in thinking Skaftár is Laki, or above it?

Edit: Just found this set of hydrological maps - basically to do with glaciers and melt.

I think you might find this thesis(PDF file) of interest as it relates to your favourite area. It is found under Rannsóknir og útgáfa (New publications and research)

PS I am watching your new avatar in case it comes to get me
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/136ec0d46df6.png[/atsimg]

[edit on 30/6/2010 by PuterMan]

I see we have a bit of activity at Bardabunga. It managed a 3.0 today.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/bda9c1901346.png[/atsimg]

And the graph

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ffc2f1c0bb01.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by PuterMan


Well from what i can see , is that skaftár is just above it to the north. Not mutch to say atm, but both my pc and my laptop have crashed during the last 2 weeks.
Yay for technoligy.


Here´s pics overlooking each sides of laki the 25km area.



[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/05fe0f7b57c9.jpg[/atsimg]


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/05ecc4e955a3.jpg[/atsimg]


Not mutch to mention atm, there´s been some activity near katla and ofc bárðabunga as u mention ,, the quakes up north of the country have slowly been decresing. Other activity seems quite normal at the moment.

About that pdf file,, well , amg, im not mutch of a technical fella and i had to google about 30% of the words in that file. But from what i can see if i understood it correctly was that the "data" that they had been using to determine the strenght and distance of the earthquakes was incorrect. In wich they were using to determine how mutch the country was being torn apart with each quake. As the old "data" they had been using was based on a system that had 4 quakes as refrence, but with the new system they are using they are compiling there data based on , can´t quite remember atm but i think it was 360 quakes, each from sizes from 3,6 to 6,5. Not to mention that they are using some other method to determine the smaller quakes wich happen everyday.

It´s pretty typical that it would take them this long of a time to figure out a system wich was used for another country , and it had a refrence to 4 quakes. Was feeding them wrong information, purely brilliant.

Thought i would toss in this link to a website that shows alot of beutiful icelandic nature , the english translation seems to be either broken or they just have not translated it yet, allthough the pictures make up for that. And u could always just go ahead and get it translated by google to have a laugh The link shows skaftá then u can go anywhere from that.

www.natturukortid.is...



[edit on 6-7-2010 by Spacedman13]

Originally posted by Spacedman13
reply to post by PuterMan

 

...im not mutch of a technical fella...

Well I am not that technical either - at least when it comes to mathematics and algebra. This sort of thing just makes the eyes glaze over!

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/395b31ff2e52.png[/atsimg]

Yes I read that as that the larger quakes were being incorrectly calculated by the software for local moment which was based on a Swedish model. (It did not say what her name was)

For me two things came out of that article.

• That the topography, especially around Southern Iceland, cloaks the correct signals in some areas and magnifies them in others.
  
• That they really have insufficient seismometers of the right types. Most of the Iceland seismos are short period and they said that often they get swamped.
  

They need more broadband seismos, that much is apparent.

By the way that long ridge in the photographs you posted interests me very much. Following a fault line perhaps? I need to look into that a bit more.

I will have a browse through the other link.

[edit on 7/7/2010 by PuterMan]

Katla is beginning to rumble a bit, while the rest of the country seems quite quiet.


Last 48 hours
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8caa998bc78f.png[/atsimg]
graph
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d6cdc0f476e3.png[/atsimg]



Puterman i found a image on the placement of the sencors, in wich that determen the size and effect. As u can see they are primarly based on the hengill region.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f30245ea2477.jpg[/atsimg]

They problebly placed them in that region after these effects wich happent around 96-98,, didn´t quite have the time to narrow it down to excat dates

week1
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/5e6797193217.gif[/atsimg]
week2
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/237c9ea37d9d.gif[/atsimg]
week3
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2cd2ac3533aa.gif[/atsimg]
week4
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/fdd92aea69fb.gif[/atsimg]

They most likely thought that it would benefit them most to place them around this area after these events, and also seing as we get a large earthquake wich usually accurs around the hengill region, wich is around the magnitude from 5,5 to 7,5 every 10 years or so. In wich there is no real danger from the earthquake itself as almost all structures here in Iceland are made to withstand a eartquake up to 7,5 atleast.




[edit on 9-7-2010 by Spacedman13]

reply to post by Spacedman13


As I said a while ago Katla always rumbles through the summer right up until October according to the information I have found. This happens every year, so small quakes around 2.0 I don't think are anything to worry about.

Interesting maps, but I think the one with the sensors may be a bit out data - but then I suppose it depends what type of sensors they are.

Take a look at this page where you will see there quite a few more. Still more around Hengill I agree.

Although there do appear to be stations at all these points not all of them are interactive on that map.

Puterman for some reason i can´t seem to find the source of the picture with the sencors, thought i bookmarked it but apperently i did not. These sencors were not the basic "sil" sencors, i had seen the other picture with the sencors that are spread around the country.

Regarding the pictures of Láki i showed wich you had interest in , i thought i would jazz it up a little for you and show you the location and how it lies.

This is east towards Vatnajökull
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1e97e7e58526.gif[/atsimg]

And this is west towards Mýrdalsjökull
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/72ddd63b25ea.gif[/atsimg]

On this picture the Blue line shows the direction of Skaftá in wich there was that flood the other day that i posted about. And the Red line shows the distance and direction of Láki craters, that so violently erupted back in 1783.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ef90606b15d9.gif[/atsimg]

And as you can see from the picture that Mystic Technician posted that this over is a red zone.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e1e880203262.gif[/atsimg]

Allthough i can´t quite take that picture seriusly after i saw this picture wich shows that there is a mutch larger area that could have magma movement under.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f8ea222dbd48.gif[/atsimg]


I saw a movie about the Eyjafjallajökull eruption wich was called Volcanic.Ash.Chaos.Inside.the.Eruption. it was from national geographic, mutch more informative then the scaremongering video i posted. This video seems to have a broken link on the national geographic site and it was not posted on youtube. I got it from a torrent site in wich i will not share as im not sure it is allowed on this forum. But if anyone is interested i will share it on u2u..

Btw, Puterman if you find the number for that swedish model please send it to me over u2u, mmmmmm swedish models ,, wink wink

Askja seems to be rumbeling a bit now also Bárðabunga a 2,6 quake, this area seems to be stirring a bit. But as Puterman says it could well be from the glasier melting and therefor cousing pressure to the region below it.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9af098aee99c.gif[/atsimg]

graph
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c1db24f6bae4.gif[/atsimg]

reply to post by Spacedman13


Thanks indeed for that - very useful.

A little bumpy today. Hopefully only ice melt!

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/fc11ff5c6cb4.gif[/atsimg]
Edit because the map was not moving - I forgot to make it loop!

[edit on 14/7/2010 by PuterMan]

i'd be buried in ash by the time i figured the names out.
yurtqurstolymjgr and amajinidadjorgkugel
jarkmrnrdlvelum..gimme a break.

reply to post by PuterMan
How much ice has melted in the last 6 months,. and would it be due to volcanic heating or is it seasonal?

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


The ice melt is generally seasonal, i.e. it retreats/thins a bit in the summer and grows/thickens a bit in the winter.

There is a time lag on this of around a couple of months hence the 'earthquake season' is from around July to October.

There is a suggestion however that climate change may be causing greater melt, which is not replaced in the winter months as fully as it might otherwise be. Time will tell on this one since we are supposed to be going back into a colder period, but until someone can present figures to prove this one way or the other (and I do not refer to the IPCC) it is difficult to say. Suffice it to say that at present by observation there has been thinning over and above the normal seasonal melt. (I will try and find you a reference for that)

The risk of the non-seasonal melt is that should the ice caps vanish completely then, in the run up to that, and when that occurs, it is mooted that there will be much greater volcanic activity due to the lighter load on the chambers and fissures etc. This is based on the suggestion that according to geological records it would appear that the greatest volcanic activity in Iceland's past occurred immediately after the retreat of the ice caps at the start of the Holocene.

Edit to add link to PDF

This PDF is entitled "Glacio-isostatic deformation around the Vatnajokull ice
cap, Iceland, induced by recent climate warming: GPS observations and finite element modeling"

The conclusion sates:

On the basis of our current model of the rheological structure beneath Iceland, we can predict future uplift rates at the edges of Vatnajo¨kull. If ice
volume decrease due to global warming proceeds at similar rates as at present, a minimum uplift of 2.5 meters between 2000 to 2100 is expected at the edges of the ice cap. An uplift of 3.7 m is, however, anticipated if the average thinning rates this century were to double from 2000 and remains unchanged until 2100

(Note this is the uplift of the land. That is quite a bit when you consider inflation before an eruption might be between 20mm and 100mm!



[edit on 15/7/2010 by PuterMan]

Found this picture in wich it shows how crasy icelanders are in general ,, ohhh volcano erupting , let us take our cars and go look at it.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/661b4e805289.gif[/atsimg]

Puterman , i skimmed through that pdf file and it is quite interesting, i will read it all tonight. If you have more information about vatnajökull and specially esjufjöll please go ahead and post it here. Really would not mind getting to learn more about that area. From what i saw while skimming through the pdf file is that öræfajökull the one that is directly south of esjuföll is also due for an eruption if you would take those 2 previus eruptions and wich happen in a timeframe of 300-350 years between.

Otherwise nothing new to report from iceland, there is some rumbeling around askja and bárdabunga, but nothing over 2 on the richter scale. also it is not swarms of earthquakes rather just 2-4 every hour or so.

reply to post by Spacedman13


I did star the pic. Fantastic. I will dig out some stuff and post here.

I think the Vatnajokull area is a more likely candidate (for a big eruption) than Katla as I have said before.

reply to post by Spacedman13


Awesome picture! I would be there to if I lived there