Volcanos in Iceland, possible alarm?

Well there are more factors that i would have liked to put in , but i thought i would loose people when reading it if it was too long, i will most likely throw in another post in this thread with a few more facts regarding the Hengill area.
And maybe get in a good disgussion about Esjufjöll hehe. Untill then enjoy the read


By the way, Mystic Technician where did u get that phote

and PuterMan thank u for the links , higly informative

reply to post by Spacedman13

What you hear from the media in Iceland is (consumer) based information, to avoid panic and hysteria, in regards to the public statement made by our president Ólafur, about the near future eruption of Katla, I’d like to applaud him by telling the world the truth.

Regrettably your President’s choice of words led many to believe that the impending eruption at Katla was going to be within the next few days, despite the fact that his remark was made on the 20th April just after things had kicked off, and was subsequently reported as ‘news’ nearly a month later by papers that had run out of things to say and needed to have a little more scaremongering.

While researching through the posts here .......I did not find the subject in which I was looking for, but rather hours of endless posts about doomsday theories. For those of you who live in Europe.........While we face genocide you face airspace cancelation and maybe -0,5 temperature dropping, and maybe a lot of ash with fluorine.

Your supposition is not quite correct on both counts.

First, you will find that there are two threads on ATS that discuss Eyjafyoll and Katla in a reasoned manner. These are of course Volcano Watch 2010 and the Eyjafjallajökull Caldera Eruption threads. You will find there are also other threads where the fearmongering has been countered by myself and others, and the area of Vatnajokull specifically has been pointed out as a potential risk.

Second, you cannot assume that Katla, or any other Icelandic volcano, in the course of eruption will wipe out the Icelandic people as this simply is not the case. The effect of an eruption in Iceland will depend on the type of eruption and the prevailing winds during the eruption.

In essence the feature of Icelandic volcanoes is that their very large eruptions tend to be more of the fissure eruption and rarely the very explosive style volcano, with perhaps the exception of Hekla, the most dangerous lady in the arsenal of Icelandic volcanoes.

Wikipedia has defined the Eyja eruption as Pelean/Plinian however I would not agree with that classification and would suggest that a mixture of Hawaiian/Phreatomagmatic would be closer to the description. I have gone into more detail in the PDF file I shall upload shortly.

Bardabunga is a stratovolcano and could produce an explosive eruption, but Katla, Eyjafjoll and Grimsvotn for example are fissure volcanoes and if the weather conditions are right the major proportion of the output in terms of tephra and gas could be headed to Scandinavia/Northern Europe rather than within Iceland itself. Yes I know Laki killed 25% of the Icelandic population, but it did a bit more damage than that in Europe!

You will not read anything like I’m about to write in any kind of news media as this information is somewhat terrifying and still just a (theory) from a single individual.

You are correct about the news media, except when they go on a scaremongering spree, but terrifying? No not really. Please do not think I am belittling your effort, I am not, but all this information is out there if one wishes to go and find it. One of the problems is that your average punter does not want to go and find it, and would prefer to be spoon fed information by the MSM. Regrettably this also applies to a number of ATS members as well! By the time I have finished the PDF I think it will paint a far more terrifying worrying picture of the potential of Icelands volcanic system, but also be aware that this is not your theory alone. I think you would find that most geologists would agree that a) Katla will go, b) Hekla will go, c) Bargabunga will go, and d) maybe one or two more. The big question is when and as you say later in the post this cannot be estimated with any great accuracy.

i would like to clarify that even though people see 5-10 small earthquakes with the size of 0,5 to 2, that this is not a indication that it is going to erupt as these kind of earthquakes around the caldera´s are perfectly normal and happens every week.

I would also like to point out that by far and away the greater bulk of the Eyjafjoll earthquakes were also within this range. The magnitude of the quakes would actually be expected to be low where magma movement is involved or degassing occurs, or where there is cooling of the magma chamber walls and/or contact with geothermal fluid, what will increase and be an indicator is the frequency of the quakes and the amplitude of the harmonic tremor, especially in the 0.5 to 1 Hz range (normally red on the Vedur plots)

If Katla was to produce a VEI 5 eruption, then yes that would be 10 times the volume of the Eyjafjoll eruption, however that does NOT mean that the force of the eruption would be 10 times greater. I think the term VEI is unfortunate as the word explosivity creates the feeling of force in most people’s minds. It would have been far better if it had been called the Volcanic Ejection Index. [God bless the USGS for that little problem]

(The volcano Esjuföll is a volcano in the central of our largest iceglacier Vatnajökull, this volcano has never erupted in our time but it was thought that it produced a huge glacier meltwater outburst in 1927, the caldera of this volcano is estimated to be 40km2 wide and therefor 4 times the size of Katla´s caldera)

This volcano has been flagged. See this comment in Eruptions!

Please do read the comment, which I flagged on the Volcano Watch thread back on the 27th April. It was made by Jon Friman and if he is concerned then so am I.


OK, I will skip the list of eruptions in Iceland as most people will probably be aware of these, and am running out of space here. I will move on to your part about Hengill.

Seing as the goverment has been drilling into the Hengill area to be able to use the steam that comes from it, they have been tapping into the area for quite some time now. As from what i have read steam like that is produced with lava setteling into a chamber below and therefor couses pressure and let´s off the steam. The area reaches over 100km and is only 50km away from the main capital reykjarvík.This type of system is somewhat the same as the Láki system that erupted violently in 1783 wich killed over 25% of our population and 50% of our livestock and is believed to have coused over 2 million deaths in europe. And that system is in the middle of our country, not 50km away.

First of all Hengill (and Hekla too) is the other side of the mid Atlantic ridge from Katla et al so they are on areas spreading in opposite directions. It is located at the Hengill triple junction where the oblique Reykjanes Peninsula rift zone, the Western Volcanic rift zone, and the South Iceland Seismic transform zone meet. If you find the description by John Search (see Volcano Live link below) you will note that it states:

Over 80,000 small earthquakes occurred at the volcano between 1994 and 1998. The largest earthquake occurred on 4th June 1998 with a magnitude 5.1 event at a previously unmapped fault 3.7 km due west of the uplift center. On 13th November 1998, a magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurred 12 km south of the June event.

Right as of now there are 26 quakes registered. I will not list them. Here is the link.

I would also like to say that is a known fact that extraction of hydrothermal power leads to increased seismic activity as evidenced at Berne (Switzerland anyway), Mexico and of course Iceland itself.

Is it possible that given the delay on the most active volcano´s in iceland that the magma is forming elsewhere, like in the Hengill system wich is still refered to as active. Could this mean that there´s a eruption about to happen under this area in wich there has been about 80% more activity then in the last 3 years,(couldn´t find earthquake data going farther back then that)

I think that the later part of your question may be answered since the information above would indicate that the activity in the area is much less than has been noted before.

You might also find my response to questions about Iceland of interest. Then again you may not

Some References:
Bardabunga Smithsonian Institute.
Bardabunga/Grimsvotn Volcanoes Updates from the NVI of the 1996 activity
Volcanoes of Iceland John Search - Volcano Live
Types of volcanic eruption Wikipedia
Volcanic Explosivity Index Wikipedia

[edit on 24/6/2010 by PuterMan]

THANK YOU so much for posting this. The time is here, it is now that all people all over the world must feel and act like brothers and sisters to help each other and help get the trouth and vital information out.

Knowing this helps me prepare. It will effect my country. I will pass this info on to many others. It will help therm too.

This is how we now need to live. In love and care and support of each other.

THANK YOU again, my friend. May you be well and safe.

I don't know if you have seen the videos of The Year 2010, Shaman. They are excellent and well worth the watch.

May the bright spirit you have shown in posting this here spread to all of us, everywhere on our planet.

Namaste.

reply to post by PuterMan

Great post , loads of solid information, and to be honest after going through all the other volcano threads regarding eyjafjallajökull i was hoping to rise your interest as u state alot of facts my friend. While skimmering through the post as i do not have the time to go into details now i found a few things worth mentioning and i will hopefully have the time to adress them tonight. So untill then my friend,, untill then

"EDIT"
Nope sorry do not have the time to do it tonight , but i will defenetly get around to it this weekend. So untill then get informed. And check out this thread i made erlier tonight.

Documentary Heaven

[edit on 24-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

Risk of Katla: Could 2nd Icelandic Volcano Eruption Follow?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f4e0802373ae.jpg[/atsimg]

www.huffingtonpost.com...

reply to post by Gold_Bug


This source presents NO evidence.

It's nice that it talks about it, but it is PURE speculation and designed to be a 'trending topic' draw.

Parallex.

reply to post by Spacedman13


Great post, and MUCH respect for your president !

.5 degress temp drop from Katla ?

I think that will only happen if it is NOT like 1783.

If we get 1783 again we will see the largest river in north
america freeze almost all the way to the gulf of mexico.

It has been 237 years since that event, and it can happen again.

Some media is saying that was Laki, some are saying it was
Katla.

www.msnbc.msn.com...

Volcanic winter is NO joke.

en.wikipedia.org...

This has the potential for a MUCH bigger drop than .5 degrees.

reply to post by PuterMan


Well im not gonna be posting my so called facts right away , i want to make a presentation that simply shows my idea about what my mind is showing me.
But i will direct a few things about your post at this moment.

Regarding the presidents words, putting the knowlage out there was a good thing seing as you put it , some people choose not to find out facts. So if it has to be scaremongering , i would say that is better then not knowing at all.

Beside the two threads that have things coverd, Volcano watch and eruptions.
Most of the other threads stated end times, so me calling most of the doom and gloom threads was not all that far from the truth , allthough i should have given those two some credit, as they are really good and have alot of information that people should go and take a look at.

The second statement, is taken out of context , as i have difficulties laying out information in context, (one of my biggest problems with writing) i meant if the hengill area wich is next to reykjarvík would erupt in the manner láki did, not if katla would erupt, as i stated those other 6 volcanos do not frighten me that mutch ,, well that´s a lie too , they do scare me a little.

And regarding the genocide statement i said , well i may have over exsagerated a bit with that one , but seing if hengill would go it would surely have huge affect to the reykjarvík area and nearby towns ,wether the winds were blowing the right direction or not, seing as about 70% of the population is around this area.

And yes i know it did alot more damage in europe , but i doubt it would do that mutch damage today as most of the deaths were related to famine from agriculture failure. But then again there were those gases that went over uk,
so yes i will give u that, it surely did alot of damage in europe.

"You are correct about the news media, except when they go on a scaremongering spree, but terrifying? No not really."

I can not quite agree with you there, let us say im one of those persons who chooses ignorance, and finds out there is a possibility of katla exploding then comes in here and reads that 5 other main volcanos are overdue, and some guy (me) is throwing out a theory that there is a possibility of a another eruption like láki that is way more sicker. Im pretty sure this kinda information is terrifying,, maybe not to you and me but those who do not know mutch about the subject

About the volcano´s erupting , and you stating most geologist would agree with me , well that is somewhat good news and bad. In wich im right when i do not want to be right hehe

"If Katla was to produce a VEI 5 eruption, then yes that would be 10 times the volume of the Eyjafjoll eruption,"
This was a fact i got from the icelandic media, so im sorry about that , you know how you can never trust them to report anything correctly. Trying to find the link while posting this but can not seem to find it , will post it later if i do.

With the list of eruptions , i was mearly showing people the timeframe in wich they have been erupting, showing that they were overdue.

At that time , lets say an avarage of 26 shakes per day, i know this is wee bit higher then the truth atm, but bere with me , i will explain this in my presentation later. 26 quakes per day for 4 years, that´s still 37960, half of when it was the most active.

But for now im deep in research into the matter, as i feel as my post could have been alot better. More indepth into the matter.

That is about all i have to mention for now about this , i will present a mutch better presentation wich will show what i am thinking.

This message was sponsord by the Icelandic volcano watchers

(ME)






[edit on 25-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

Wow you hit pay-dirt! What are the chances that a real geologist with a special interest in volcanos would happen by your thread?! I have nothing scientific to offer you, only care, concern, and well-wishes coming your way.

reply to post by new_here


Well , i have allready risen one´s interest "Parallex" has a special interest in volcanos. Now puterman that i do not know , allthough he does seem to know alot about the subject. So Puterman , tell us are you a geologist or just a higly informed individual with alot of knowlage about this subject ?

I hope you find what you looking for. We now that Iceland is a hotspot. But when you have some info what you keep back from us this thread will be small. So i gues that you give that special info, so this thread can be growing what you wnat all the time. And if you have intrest in Icelandic volcanos then maybe you must read this thread, here is much info from others. They gather so much info so maybe you could learn something and get smarter from this thread. Good Luck

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Parallex


"Your theory is a well written and interesting one. However, it isn't based on 'science' as such, more circumstantial conjecture "

When it comes to volcano eruptions , there does not seem to be mutch science about it that would predict the eruptions other then seismic activity and pressure, in wich the Hengill area has been showing for many many years.

"Certainly, it is true that we could see long timing-curve magma chambers filling up. It is also true that we could potentially be looking at nasty eruptions. The problem we have is that there is absolutely NO evidence to suggest this. "

Well, is there a research in wich i can study that shows a similar area that has had this mutch activity in it for so many years or is this a unique situation with this area. Becouse for me a area shaking like this around this many volcanos is quite astonishing to me. And yes i do realise that this is over the triple junction wich of course does not help the situation.

"The 'tilt' meters in Iceland are generally within normal parameters, magmatic earthquake swarms aren't behaving oddly, and we're not seeing any unusual environmental / organism behaviour."

This is also a issue im going to be adressing in my post, as for what i have found does not indicate that the these meters are "normal", but later on that subject.

"The assessment that Katla always erupts after Eyjafjallajokull (EFJ) is purely anecdotal. There is no PROVEN link as of yet."

I totally agree with you, but history has proven this to be correct, and seing as we offer no other means of information or ways to disprove it. The best source we have now is history. For all we know the magma is forming under vatnajökull and it will erupt from one of those, or even the eruption from eyjafjallajökull was just built up pressure from 200 years of rest.

I would like to mention , im just a theory man and i love getting as mutch information as i can about what im interested in. Nothing i write is suposed to be in a manner wich insults or belittles what other people write. I might throw in a joke here or there, sometimes they come out a little too dark , but that is just my sence of humor. Dark twisted.

By the way, is there any site in wich i can see newly updated formations of the lava pools under the country or is that speculated evidence?

reply to post by ni91ck


It is not that im holding back on information , it is that i want to get the information i know simply by browsing and finding out. Out in a manner wich everyone will understand and have a easy time understanding where im going with my theory. As i stated before i have a hard time putting things into context. As im not a educated man per say, and im learning as i go along.

The real question has allready been asked and i have allready put out the (knowlage) about the other volcanos as i wanted to inform others, so im halfway done with my message, now it is just time for the other half, but ofc there might be other disgussion about other volcanos in the way and that is quite fine with me as learning facts and about my ever changing surrondings every day is what im really interested in these days.

And thank you for the link , i have been studying that one and also keeping a eye on Volcano watch.


[edit on 26-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

reply to post by Spacedman13


Bravo, well written post, I enjoyed reading it. I really thought you were going to mention Edgar Cayce the whole time I was reading it though, you know he had a reading once about the volcanos awaking across Iceland being an indicator that the earth was about to have an earth crust displacement, I like your theories much much better.....

I agree it is not a question of if but when. Any information of evacuation by the Icelandic authourities and timescale of informing us here in north Scotland island? We here could smell sulpher and lots of people had streaming eyes me included when Ey blew. Scottish authourities give no info surely there must be plans for the big one?? Ok volcano goes but what about the people? Yes great here too, clear air, white beaches like you it's home.

reply to post by Spacedman13


I am not a geologist. but I did study geology back in the 60s. It has always been an interest, but as my handle indicates I am a computer programmer - with a special interest in Iceland and its volcanoes.

reply to post by Spacedman13

I meant if the hengill area wich is next to reykjarvík would erupt in the manner láki did

And regarding the genocide statement i said , well i may have over exsagerated a bit with that one , but seing if hengill would go it would surely have huge affect to the reykjarvík area and nearby towns ,wether the winds were blowing the right direction or not, seing as about 70% of the population is around this area

.

Well yes in that case it would be devastating for Reykjavik and Iceland. I had not appreciated that was what you were saying.

I said "You are correct about the news media, except when they go on a scaremongering spree, but terrifying? No not really."

I can not quite agree with you there, ....... Im pretty sure this kinda information is terrifying,, maybe not to you and me but those who do not know mutch about the subject

Well yes I suppose you have a point there. Most people. without the correct information. will have a tendency to panic. I don't blame them for that. It also depends on their age and disposition. I suppose I am old enough to have got to a stage where it does not bother me too much.

I said "If Katla was to produce a VEI 5 eruption, then yes that would be 10 times the volume of the Eyjafjoll eruption,"

This was a fact i got from the icelandic media, so im sorry about that

Nothing to be sorry about. Eyja was VEI 4 so I was just noting that Katla would need to VEI5 to be 10 times bigger. VE4 = 0.1 cu km ejecta and VEI5 = 1 cu km. Katla's reservoir is of the order of 21 cu km and if ALL that came out (which is unlikely) it would be a VEI 6

With the list of eruptions , i was merely showing people the time frame in which they have been erupting, showing that they were overdue.

No problems there.

At that time , lets say an average of 26 shakes per day, i know this is wee bit higher then the truth atm, but bere with me , i will explain this in my presentation later. 26 quakes per day for 4 years, that´s still 37960, half of when it was the most active.

Just to put a bit of perspective on this, numbers are not always the be all and end all. Baja California has has over 11,300 quakes in three months ranging from < 1 to 4 with a few above that. Hengill comes nowhere near that. That is not particularly relevant as the nature of the two areas is totally different. I just show it to illustrate that numbers do nor always matter.

I will present a much better presentation which will show what i am thinking.

I look forward to it.
And talking about Eyjafyoll, which we were not

There have also been some interesting ramifications of the eruption. For one, Icelanders are finding uses for the copious ash produced in the eruption, such as reinforcement for concrete. The Romans used ash to help make building materials and it allows for lighter, stronger concrete.

Source: Eruptions!

(That is one of the best blogs and sources of information on volcanoes around.)

[edit on 27/6/2010 by PuterMan]

The document I have uploaded contains some good descriptions of the effects of an eruption such as Laki, but is not solely about Iceland.

It is brief, but the descriptions fascinated me

“the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear, nor such as it is accustomed to shed”

I have uploaded this document as a PDF, and I hope this is not in contravention of any copyright. The reason I say that is because I found a reference to it 30 odd pages down in a Google Scholar search. The original I download was a text file, unformatted poorly punctuated if at all, however all I have done is basically to make it readable. The content per se has not been altered. In the absence of any further information I have assumed it to be in the public domain.

View/Download this PDF

There is gonna be some delay from me with my continuing searching for facts that i want to see and other information that i had not considerd or even thought of.

Untill then go on and post your ideas or even if u have some information regarding the volcanos or the activity of them, as i check in daily to see if something else has come up, or just even if you have a question about this all , not quite sure if i can answer with any sertainty, but im pretty sure Puterman will have a answer for you.

reply to post by sidan


Any information of evacuation by the Icelandic authourities and timescale of informing us here in north Scotland island?

Well i thought this was quite interesting , so i checked into the matter. From what i can see is that this is the only evacuation plan we have is.

Escape/Evacuation/Departure If you evacuate from a danger zone (because of building safety, danger from avalanches, or other natural disasters, or a larger area based on the decision of the government), take the following actions:
* Safeguard your house and take along essentials like: o Medical supplies. o Children's items. o Put valuables in a safe place or bring them along.
o Take measures to insure that food will not be spoiled. o Close windows and doors.
o Evaluate if the water and electricity should be shut off. If you decide to leave electricity on, keep lights on in the front hall and by the front door. Remember to dress appropriately for the weather conditions.
o Leave in accordance with the given instructions and follow the line of traffic. Drive with utmost care.
o Follow all instructions to the letter.
o If you have room in your vehicle, offer rides to evacuees who are fleeing on foot.
o Register at the mass casualty centre at the journey’s end.
o If you do not have your own transportation, you should go to the nearest mass casualty centre, where transportation can be arranged. Those who cannot get out on their own should do the following:
* Notify the nearest emergency shelter, police station, fire station, health clinic or telephone operation centre.
* If the telephones are dead, hang a conspicuous cloth or a flag, out of a window facing the main road.

I could not seem to find a so called "large scale evactuation plan" and about the driving out of the city,, Well there are 3 ways we can go , west towards the reykjanes skaga wich is a dead end, east towards the volcanos whether it be hengill og katla or any of the other volcanos, or the obvius way north towards akureyri, wich would have every car driving at a single lane road towards that place.(instant mayham) There are also many offroad tracks but most of those go somewhat into the country.

But seing as i see the big flaw in that idea, first thing i would do i go down to the harbor and steal me a boat.

And regarding the timeframe, no im sorry but no one can offer a timeframe, if there was a way to figure that out there would be no need for disgussion , goverments would just clear area´s when it was time for an event.

Here is a link to our (could not think of a better translation) so for now it is Disaster safety site

[edit on 27-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

[edit on 27-6-2010 by Spacedman13]

I have just posted some details in the Eyja caldera thread which need to be viewed here as well.

Rather than double/duplicate post, here is the link.

Katla's Seasonal Activity

A note about the upcoming seismic season on Katla that may alarm some

I think in future I shall post these the other way round (i.e here first)