Hurricane Watch 2010

reply to post by DutchBigBoy


Yes, The names are prdetermined. The 2010 Hurricane names are for the Atlantic are as follows:

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

From the Noah's National Hurricane Center - it states as follows:

Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center. They are now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The original name lists featured only women's names. In 1979, men's names were introduced and they alternate with the women's names. Six lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2009 list will be used again in 2015. Here is more information about the history of naming hurricanes.

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

Several names have been changed since the lists were created. For example, on the 2007 list (which will be used again in 2013), Dorian has replaced Dean, Fernand has replaced Felix, and Nestor has replaced Noel. Here is more information about retired hurricane names.

In the event that more than 21 named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on. If a storm forms in the off-season, it will take the next name in the list based on the current calendar date. For example, if a tropical cyclone formed on December 28th, it would take the name from the previous season's list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would be named from the subsequent season's list of names.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast/Advisory Number 4
000
WTNT23 KNHC 230850
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
0900 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 78.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 78.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N 84.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.8N 89.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 78.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

reply to post by Anmarie96


thx a lot for the explaination, didn't this fact

I still have a gut feeling that the 7th storm will be named george

2010 Hurricane Names

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

reply to post by berkeleygal

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

it is just a gut feeling

The National Hurricane Center has some new stuff to keep an eye on. Both Low chances, 10% and 20% chance of further development anytime soon, but something to keep an eye on nonetheless. Tis the season you know.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yep. Invest 90. Seems early in the year for Cape Verdes storms. Of course, this is not even a tropical depression yet.

On the other hand, the SHIPS intensity model forecasts 82 mph in 120 hours. Will be interesting to watch. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer for those who might not know the term) seems to be shifting somewhat, not spreading out the DRY AIR clear across the ITCZ.

reply to post by argentus


It is now up to 30% chance, medium probability. Yes, it will be interesting to watch.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

www.stormpulse.com...

New update from National Hurricane Center:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

.....AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....

reply to post by lasertaglover


Did you notice that the convection got sheared enough that it lost its "invest" label? Then, this morning it was "re-invested", now 91 L.

The CMC model (short run) seems to be developing the invest into a major 'cane, albeit a potentialfish storm. GFS develops it into a small TS/TD. GFDL and HWRF aren't interested in it yet.

Still seems a tad early in the year for Cape Verde storms, although Bertha formed in July of 2008, as well as probably many others in previous years, so it's certainly not unusual.

For me it signals time to round up yardcrap, make trips to the dump, reorganize shed and tools, etc.

reply to post by argentus


Yes. The convection did indeed cause some shear issues, but the models are looking stronger for formation.

The models on Storm Pulse all show it heading the same way.

www.stormpulse.com...

It does seem a bit early for TD/TS formation along that corridor.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

reply to post by lasertaglover


Dang it, ya beat me to it, expect to see something from this one, been watching her now for about 3 days, looks promising....good find

reply to post by freetree64


Thanks. I think we just might have the next Depression here very soon as well.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yes, perhaps... now would that be considered a "Topical Depression"?

90% Chance for the next Tropical Depression to form.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

It's kind of interesting......... 91L needs to stay low in the warmer Atlantic/Caribbean waters to really ramp up, but if it's too low, then it won't be able to take advantage of the MJO.

I could easily see this semi-disorganized convection getting to TD or even TS. Disclaimer and reminder: I'm not a met, nor even close to one -- merely a weather geek.

SHIPS intensity puts it now at 75 mph in 120 hours. That's down from earlier today, even though the storm itself has gained 5 mph in intensity. Bermuda might have a tangle with this storm -- hard to place much faith in the model tracking at this early stage, although the Bermuda High seems to want to either recurve it early into a fish storm, or push it under Hispainola, imo.

I guess it's that time o' year folks........ when some of us stay up all night bleary-eyed watching little swirlies in infrafred, Dvorak, Rainbow, water vapor, etc. CIMSS is indicating < 20 kts. of shear currently.

This babys gonna go!!!!... strictly from a non-met perspective... of course

A lot of the models on Stormpulse show it having a good potential of curving in a more Northerly direction instead of hitting the coast.

www.stormpulse.com...

But it is still very early to tell exactly.

And Tropical Depression 4 is born.

But the National Hurricane Models are showing it not hitting the coast at all for now.

We will wait and watch, but hopefully, it stays on its current course, even though Bermuda should probably keep a close eye on this one.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

...DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES....

www.stormpulse.com...