Hurricane Watch 2010

reply to post by Vitchilo


Another one to churn the Gulf. Need to take a look at the disturbance coming off of Africa. Thanks for the update.

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Tropical cyclone likely to hit Thursday same area slammed by Hurricane Alex

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[edit on 7-7-2010 by asala]

Apologies if this is a dumb question, but following the reports that this year was going to be a heavy hurricane season for the gulf, is what we are seeing above/below/normal and during what period should we expect to see the highest hurricane formations ?

reply to post by Wobbly Anomaly


The US usually gets hit hardest in August..... *sigh*
We can all take comfort in the media always being wrong though

reply to post by jackieps1975


Thanks.

Yeah, you can take comfort in the media being a bit rubbish. (but maybe not that so many people take it as gospel)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

Low chance on these 2, but just in time for "BP's" big fix.... should be interesting to keep an eye on.....








www.nhc.noaa.gov...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

Visual on storm here....




www.stormpulse.com...

Getting active again and the water temps are high.

reply to post by crazydaisy


Yep, and this one's looking like it's got some potential.... we will see, if it don't get sheared off, could delvelop more in the gulf, forecast tracks have it around 75 % coming near the affected area...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET
FORMED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

NWS Tropical Prediction Center National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 800 am edt wed jul 21 2010

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Early morning satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with the tropical wave moving across Hispaniola has become less organized. Consequently, the Air Force reconnaissance mission has been postponed until tomorrow. A tropical depression is not expected to form today but environmental conditions are still favorable for some development as the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from Hispaniola into the Bahamas on Thursday. There is a high chance, 60 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today and will likely spread over the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. The heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in mountainous areas.

Current Florida water temps:

www.nodc.noaa.gov...

Blackwater Sound, FL 83.7
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Little Blackwater, FL 84.2
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Long Sound, FL 84.0
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Highway Creek, FL 84.0
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Duck Key, FL 83.7
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Trout Cove, FL 82.9
(07/22/2010 14:00 UTC)
Butternut Key, FL 83.3
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Little Madeira, FL 84.2
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Taylor River, FL 85.8
(07/22/2010 14:00 UTC)
Bob Allen, FL 82.6
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Whipray Basin, FL 82.4
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Garfield Bight, FL 83.7
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Peterson Key, FL 84.0
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Little Rabbit Key, FL 84.2
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Johnson Key, FL 82.0
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Murray Key, FL 84.9
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Tarpon Bay East, FL 84.2
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Cane Patch, FL 84.0
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Gunboat Island, FL 86.0
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Broad River Lower, FL 85.6
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Lostmans River, FL 85.6
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Willy Willy, FL 83.3
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Cannon Bay, FL 86.9
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Watson Place, FL 86.5
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)
Broad River, FL 85.3
(07/22/2010 15:00 UTC)

reply to post by lasertaglover


Is that above normal or what? Anyone knows?

reply to post by UberL33t


"a very interesting hurricane season" you say. do you live in the gulf area?? i do.

reply to post by Vitchilo


I am not sure if it is below or above norm, but even without the comparison, it is definitely warm water as it is.

I do remember when I lived in Sarasota, FL a long, long time ago, that the water would get into the low 90's at times. Felt like bathwater.

Presenting Tropical Storm Bonnie -

000
WTNT33 KNHC 230013
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND DISTANCE

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 45 MILES...
70 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

are the names of the storms allready written???