Space Weather reports possibility of Hyder Flare

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


but you cant say something is unpredicatble after predicting its behavior... even with some variance....

thats like saying the weather is unpredicable because weathermen cant tell you how all the water arrived on earth.

Originally posted by Wertdagf

but you cant say something is unpredicatble after predicting its behavior... even with some variance....

thats like saying the weather is unpredicable because weathermen cant tell you how all the water arrived on earth.

...it wasn't predicted... In fact what was predicted every year by NASA was that "cycle 24 would begin next year", yet they had to postpone their prediction and move it to several later dates... That is not predicting...that is OBSERVING and announcing what it's behavior tells us. It is not predicting.

[edit on 20-5-2010 by ElectricUniverse]

Let me show you one of several examples.

Sun's Next Cycle of Fury Delayed
By Tariq Malik
Staff Writer
posted: 26 April 2007
12:12 p.m. ET


The Sun's next cycle of solar storms will brew up later than expected, though astronomers are split on just how strong the star's tempests will be.

Initially expected to begin last fall, the Suns 11-year storm season is now pegged to begin in March 2008 and hit its peak near the end of 2011, according to a new forecast compiled by a panel of solar experts for the Space Weather Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The 12-member panel split into two equal camps, one predicting a weak season while the other expects a strong one, though both facets are not anticipating the Sun set any new records in coming years.
...

www.space.com...

Both were wrong and the sun did set new records not seen for about 100 years if not longer.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


I had just found that and was about to post it...Thank you!

Yes, the largest magnetic filament on the Sun recorded ever was about 1 million KM long, and collapsed just a couple days before the huge Chilean quake. The one on the Sun now, that is only about 100K KM long, hasn't collapsed or produced a flare, but in the last 1/2 hour or so a rather large earthquake hit Chile again - and several small earthquakes have popped up in the interior of California. We have had many sunspot-less days in a row, meaning any "glancing blow" by solar wind (which we are indeed feeling today) and possible far-reaching affects of the current magnetic filament could be stirring things up....I would watch those earthquake numbers, and keep an eye on the volcanoes too.

The sun could belch out a major X flare tomorrow, cause a massive 9.5 quake in New Madrid and Phage would still deny the connection. He would still probably keep saying our sun is mild mannered as well even though EVERY solar scientist agree that we are heading into the most violent solar maximum on record to peak in 2012.


Magnitude 5.9
Date-Time Thursday, May 20, 2010 at 22:16:32 UTC
Thursday, May 20, 2010 at 04:16:32 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 9.377°N, 84.250°W
Depth 23 km (14.3 miles) set by location program
Region COSTA RICA


earthquake.usgs.gov...

[edit on 20-5-2010 by Sky watcher]

reply to post by Sky watcher

EVERY solar scientist agree that we are heading into the most violent solar maximum on record to peak in 2012.

Every Solar scientist, huh?
Nope. And nope.

May 8, 2009 -- Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...


[edit on 5/20/2010 by Phage]

reply to post by Sky watcher


Actually, 2013 is now the forecasted year for the maximum, also there is no telling how strong it will be...so saying it will be the strongest or worse ever is a little premature.

A question for you:
How come there was no large earthquake recorded in 1859, after the largest recorded solar storm hit the planet?

You can't just cherry pick data to suit your argument.

There is a good hundred years of data for both solar storms and earthquakes, if there was a connection between the two, it would be common knowledge by now and not a fringe theory.

[edit on 20/5/10 by Chadwickus]

I once came to the conclusion that Solar Activity causes Earthquakes, I now believe I was very very Wrong.

However there could be a huge connection between Gamma ray burst/Gravity Waves and Earthquakes.

Click me

reply to post by NotAgain

Based on a single, very iffy, correlation?
Sure, why not? Earthquakes are pretty random and so are gamma ray bursts. Maybe they're connected.

Great news!

Does this mean we are all safe now? no doom and gloom?

Great new video of the mega-filament on Space Weather right now.

spaceweather.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...


THREAD ALREADY POSTED...

[edit on 21-5-2010 by Noobastronomer]

Costa Rica rocked on 20th May

NOAA Data

Should this hyper flare strikes, all we can do is for the religious to pray, the spiritualists send positive vibes, the free thinkers think well of mother Earth. It costs no one anything, and it may save lives, as it did before.

Not CME's you silly gooses.

Both NASA and the European Geosciences Union have both endorsed the sunspot earthquake Link.

A CME could have an effect I imagine depending on certain conditions.
It's seems to be all about the relative charge of the ionosphere. So I think it could or should be a factor.

If the Earth's magnetic field is altered is it really that hard to believe? Kind of seems likely IMO.

Please don't argue it with me, I don't care. Take it to NASA or the Geoscience Union.

And yes the emperor wears no clothes.


[edit on 21-5-2010 by squiz]

reply to post by squiz


Do you have a NASA source for your claims?

Oh and what are your thought on this?


Largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred on 1-2 September 1859

And Significant earthquakes in 1859

The closest earthquake to the Carrington event was a quake in the Banda sea on the 25th August....6 days before the solar storm hit earth...

reply to post by Chadwickus


Haven't got much time atm, you can search for Minoru Freund some facsinating research.

My thoughts? The Earth is a leaky capacitor, The ionosphere acts as one plate, the ground is the other. A change in voltage on one plate starts the charge moving on the other. But the Earth also has charge beneath the ground. If it becomes semi conducting because of stress, there's a chance of a breakdown of current in the rock. Something like underground lightning causes Earthquakes. Not my theory. Hope I got it right.

Damm it, I'll be in for it now from the orthodoxy!

[edit on 21-5-2010 by squiz]

Originally posted by butcherguy
reply to post by Phage

 

Dang it Phage! You and those facts again.

If you keep it up, you are going to ruin the collective fantasy some seem to have of the Earth being burned to a cinder.

Sadly, that is BOUND to happen eventually, the question is when...which is why it bothers me we can't get off this island safely yet! asteroid, comet, gamma-ray burst, or our sun dying/expanding...pick one.

Nasa scientists have said they could be on the verge of a breakthrough in their efforts to forecast earthquakes.

Researchers say they have found a close link between electrical disturbances on the edge of our atmosphere and impending quakes on the ground below.

Just such a signal was spotted in the days leading up to the recent devastating event in China.

news.bbc.co.uk...

It's not a sure thing but the team is confident, and is developing an early warning system . It's a couple of years ago now, I have no idea where it stands.

The ionosphere is distinguished from other layers of Earth's atmosphere because it is electrically charged through exposure to solar radiation.

On a significant number of occasions, satellites have picked up disturbances in this part of the atmosphere 100-600km above areas that have later been hit by earthquakes.

One of the most important of these is a fluctuation in the density of electrons and other electrically-charged particles in the ionosphere.

One study looked at over 100 earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.0 or larger in Taiwan over several decades. The researchers found that almost all of the earthquakes down to a depth of about 35km were preceded by distinct electrical disturbances in the ionosphere.

The analysis was carried out by Jann-Yeng Liu, from the Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research in Chung-Li, Taiwan.

Rock 'batteries'

Minoru and his father Friedemann Freund, also from Nasa Ames Research Center, developed the scientific theory behind these earthquake precursors. It boils down to the idea that when rocks are compressed - as when tectonic plates shift - they act like batteries, producing electric currents.

"We now pretty much understand the solid-state physics of these rocks," Minoru added.

According to their theory, the charge carrier is a "positive hole", known as a phole, which can travel large distances in laboratory experiments.

When they travel to the surface of the Earth, the surface becomes positively charged. And this charge can be strong enough to affect the ionosphere, causing the disturbances documented by satellites.

When these pholes "recombine" at the surface of the Earth, they enter an excited state. They subsequently "de-excite" and emit mid-infrared light particles, or photons. This may explain the IR observations.

Now it seems to match perfectly with the theory I outlined up till now, this is where I disagree sort of, I say the it can also be the otherway around, the ionosphere can trigger the under ground currents, only if the stress is there. So you see certain geological factors must contribute. So an earthquake could occur just through plate techtonics eventually or the pressure could be instantly released through an electrical discharge beneath the ground.

Regardless I think it is the right direction and I applaud the professor. Plenty of critics of course. My point being don't rule it out!

I also must apolagize, not exactly the sunspot link I was thinking about but there you go.

[edit on 21-5-2010 by squiz]

reply to post by Chadwickus


Actually it depends of whom you ask.

I have also posted the following in the past.

SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H & E.
Vol.3. 2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2008 ISBN 978-9952-451-01-6 ISSN 2070-0334
217
ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES: LONG-TERM FORECAST

*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
*Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov,
**International Academy of Science H&E (Austria, Innsbruck)

It has been determined that in the period of solar activity increase (11-year
cycles) there increase seismic and volcanic activities in the compression zone of
Earth and at the same time there decreases the activity in the tension zones of Earth.
On the basis of the discovered stable 11-year and 22-year cyclicalities in the seismic and volcanic activities and their high correlation with solar activity there has been made the long-term forecast until 2018. The next maximum of seismic and volcanic activity with very high amplitude for the compression zones of Earth is forecasted for the period 2012-2015.

www.khalilov.biz...

BTW, if you want to know who Elchin Khalilov (Khalilov E.N.) is here are a few facts that anyone can corroborate...

Dr.Prof. Elchin Khalilov (Azerbaijani: Elçin Xəlilov (born On April, 26th 1959, Baku, Azerbaijan) is a famous scientist in the sphere of geodynamics, seismology and tectonics.

en.wikipedia.org...

Prof. Michu Kaku says that by around 2012 we could have the most powerful CMEs in our Sun which would fry our electrical and electronic infraestructures and that we should be preparing for this.

There are many different opinions and noone knows exactly when or the magnitute of the next maximum in the solar cycle.

BTW Chad, the Earth's own magnetic field has been weakening since around the 1840s and is now weaker, in some spots 10% and in others 15% or even higher than it has been for hundreds of thousands of years. Which means geomagnetic storms, and other changes in the Solar System affect the Earth and it's activity now more than in the past.

Collapse of the earth's magnetic field accelerates
New York Times, Monday 12 July 2004, 18:17:38 ET
The collapse of the earth's magnetic field, which both guards the planet and guides many of its creatures, appears to have started in earnest about 150 years ago, the NY TIMES is planning to report on Page Ones Tuesday.

Science reporter Bill Broad has filed a report, according to newsroom sources, which explores how: The fields strength has waned 10 percent to 15 percent so far and this deterioration has accelerated of late, increasing debate over whether it portends a reversal of the lines of magnetic force that normally envelop the earth.
..

www.hartford-hwp.com...

Magnetic Field Weakening in Stages, Old Ships' Logs SuggestJohn Roach
for National Geographic News

May 11, 2006
Earth's magnetic field is weakening in staggered steps, a new analysis of centuries-old ships logs suggests.

The finding could help scientists better understand the way Earth's magnetic poles reverse.

The planet's magnetic field flips—north becomes south and vice versa—on average every 300,000 years. However, the actual time between reversals varies widely.

The field last flipped about 800,000 years ago, according to the geologic record.

Since 1840, when accurate measures of the intensity were first made, the field strength has declined by about 5 percent per century.

If this decline is continuous, the magnetic field could drop to zero and reverse sometime within the next 2,000 years.
...

news.nationalgeographic.com...


Then there is the fact that the Solar System, and Earth is recieving more radiation, and charged particles at least since we started monitoring space because of the lows the Sun ahs been in lately.

Space radiation hits record high
22:55 29 September 2009 by David Shiga
For similar stories, visit the Solar System and Spaceflight Topic Guides

Like a wounded Starship Enterprise, our solar system's natural shields are faltering, letting in a flood of cosmic rays. The sun's recent listlessness is resulting in record-high radiation levels that pose a hazard to both human and robotic space missions.

Galactic cosmic rays are speeding charged particles that include protons and heavier atomic nuclei. They come from outside the solar system, though their exact sources are still being debated.

Earth dwellers are protected from cosmic rays by the planet's magnetic field and atmosphere. But outside Earth's protective influence, cosmic rays can play havoc with spacecraft electronics – they may be responsible for some recent computer glitches on NASA's Kepler spacecraft, which temporarily halted its planet-hunting observations. They can also damage astronaut DNA, which can lead to cancer.

Now, the influx of galactic cosmic rays into our solar system has reached a record high. Measurements by NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft indicate that cosmic rays are 19 per cent more abundant than any previous level seen since space flight began a half century ago.

Solar minimum
"The space era has so far experienced a time of relatively low cosmic ray activity," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech, who is a member of the ACE team. "We may now be returning to levels typical of past centuries."

The sun's magnetic field normally blocks some of the cosmic rays, preventing them from entering the solar system. But that protection has weakened of late. The solar wind, which helps project the sun's magnetic field out into space, has dropped in pressure to a 50-year low. And the strength of the magnetic field in interplanetary space is down to just 4 nanoTesla, compared to the more typical 6 to 8 nanoTesla.
...

www.newscientist.com...



[edit on 21-5-2010 by ElectricUniverse]