What might really be happening in Washington State?

reply to post by berkeleygal


4am? Can't sleep? There are some interesting pics in that report. It doesn't look like water runnoff, but it could be land sinkage because of the rain. I wonder how far below the ground the water table is there. Seattle is very close to sea level isn't it? The land definitely looks like it's shifted up/down as you can see clear breakages from the other side of the crack.
There was a 1.4 quake ese of there yesterday. I don't know how close to that this incident is. But interesting to note. Thanks Berkleygal. Try to get some sleep!

reply to post by berkeleygal

Berkelyeygal, why are you still up at 4 a.m.?

I guess it may be for the same reason that I was still up well past 4 a.m. on Friday night/Saturday morning. To explain: due to time differences between us, I've already had my sleep for Saturday (morning!) and got up again... It's now after 2 pm here. I have to tell you that it's been years since I've not been able to go to bed until almost 5 in the morning. It was 2004, around Christmas, in the day or two before the huge quake hit in Asia. And before that was when my Grandfather died in 2002. (After I'd got the news, just to clarify.)

As to your question, yes: UtahRosebud posted about the landslip problem in Everett, but it was some hours before you did. Easy to miss, especially when tired.

Hard to know what to make of that situation with those houses (or their gardens) sliding off down the hill. It could be simply due to ground saturation, but there could be some seismic component as well. But what it does very graphically illustrate is that if a large quake hits that region around Seattle somewhere, it's very likely that there are going to be a lot of houses sliding off down hillsides. But instead of taking days or weeks as in the current case in Everett, it all could happen in mere moments.

Berkeleygal, if you're still up, could you give us any observations of how things seemed in your area on Friday? Were local animals and birds acting normally? Was the sky normal? Any odd reports in the news or anything?

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Well good morning! I am up early myself to get my son to his track meet. I'll be gone most of the day at that.

You make an excellent point regarding how the instability of the ground will only add to the damage from any possilbe quake. There has been some landslides in the news the past couple of days.

5 Bainbridge Homes Evacuated After Landslide

Two slides caused by heavy rainfall on Sunday and Monday led the city to evacuate residents of five homes on Gertie Johnson Road on Bainbridge Island.

SOURCE



And then this one in Edmonds (different than the other slide)

Worst year since 1997 for mudslides hitting the tracks

The Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad owns and maintains the tracks used by Sound Transit commuter and longer distance Amtrak trains. Thirty times this season, land or mud slides have forced 48-hour "moratoriums" on Sound Transit passenger trains because of the slide danger

Already, there have been 46 slides between Everett and Seattle this week. For Sound transit alone, slides have canceled 81 trains so far this winter. That's three times as many as last winter, which was 26 for the whole season. There were none in the 2008-2009 season

SOURCE



So what do you make of all of that? Maybe if I have time later I can mark this places on a map....see how it all lines of with the recent quakes.


And then this:

Then we also have this story today:

Viaduct Closed This Weekend For Inspection, Test Of Closure System

SEATTLE -- The state Department of Transportation is closing the Alaskan Way Viaduct on Saturday and Sunday for a semiannual inspection and to test a new system that automatically closes the viaduct when sensors detect an earthquake

SOURCE

Makes me think that perhaps a whole lotta people are paying attention to the earthquake warning. The viaduct is the LAST place you would want to be during one....it is where a lot of the deaths occured in the last big one in cali.

reply to post by westcoast

Good morning Westcoast!

Thanks for those extra reports of landslides. Seems like there have been quite a lot of them. I might check their locations on a map myself. But again, even if they are not directly related to any recent seismic acitivity, it graphically illustrates the potential in the event of landslips/landslides from even a medium-sized quake. Major and local roads, bridges and overpasses could be disrupted, in-ground infrastructure like water, gas, telecommuncations cabling, power and sewage/stormwater drainage could be damaged... These are all possible.

We all know this, but for anyone who is living in the west coast USA or BC regions that might be affected by a strong quake, I'd strongly recommend that you have your "bug-out bag" ready in case you actually need to grab it and go. Hopefully, you won't need to do that, but at the very least, please maintain a supply of bottled water. You can live for several days without food, but you must have water. And please -- don't store all your bottles of water in one place in your home or garage. And certainly not in the basement unless it's extremely strong and won't crack and possibly get flooded by polluted ground water, and there's no risk of your access to the basement being blocked.

Naturally, the above applies to anyone living anywhere that a big quake might hit, including the New Madrid and Wabash Valley regions. But I think it's a good idea for everyone.

I live in a region that (knock on wood) doesn't get quakes of any real size. And we're well above the flood line even in the worst-case scenario of our country's biggest dam letting go. But all the same, I keep water supplies on hand. I have some stored away in the main bedroom and some on the opposite side of my residence in the second bedroom, plus some in the kitchen pantry. It gives my wife and I a better chance of having water to drink if (heaven forbid!) something big ever happens.

A note about storing water: use smaller containers. Pints and quarts (for US readers) are ideal. It's easier to spread them around and put them out of the way of everyday "home traffic", but still have them easily accessible. Also, it would be very bad if you had (say) forty gallons in one container and it got damaged and you lost it all. Or it was simply inaccessible on the other side of a wall from where you were. Besides which, that big container would weigh well over 300 pounds. Too hard to move. But even a smaller child can carry a one-pint or a quart bottle of water.

Mike

Here's an image I've done to show the location of the land movement events that have been reported in WA news and posted by our members. The locations for the Valley View (Burl Pl) and Bainbridge Island (Gertie Johnson Rd) events are as precise as I can get them, while the location of the latest reported landslide on the train tracks is my deduction based on news helicopter footage. (But there have been many slides along that section of track.)

I also plotted the line between the two most distant events. I find it interesting that the train-track landslide events lie pretty much along that line.


Mike

reply to post by zenius

Berkeleygal, if you're still up, could you give us any observations of how things seemed in your area on Friday? Were local animals and birds acting normally? Was the sky normal? Any odd reports in the news or anything?

Up now, 4 am is usually my time to go to bed. OK, yesterday morning we had a huge rain storm, a small tornado up in Santa Rosa and a water spout off Ocean Beach. Last night we had thunder and lightning (rare for here) and several hail storms. Was quite a day. Tonight we have a big storm again with very high surf and winds up to 50-60 mph. I really hope I get to see the moon at least for a little while tonight.

reply to post by berkeleygal

Thanks very much for the report! Sounds like you're having some wild weather there. (It was actually me who asked you about this, not Zenius. )

So, aside from the weather, things are pretty normal, by the sound of it?

Mike

Those train tracks are in a valley or corridor. With hills on either side and the Puget Sound Convergence Zone mixed with winds would cause land slides. Our grounds are pretty much wet 8 months out of the year.

Whoa, hearing about the Viaduct being closed this weekend is really concerning. That is a scary place to be even when it's sunny and no warnings of danger. Every single time I've ever been in a car with my mom when we are on that stupid thing my mom says, "Wow...I'd hate to be here in an earthquake." all nonchalant. So yeah, I pretty much avoid it at all costs now.

Our land is really saturated this year, we've had even more rainfall this winter than usual and a lot of flooding, so I'd expect more landslides. Whenever we are getting flooding we get landslide warnings. But I had never thought about the possibility of whether any of them were connected to any of the fault lines or something bigger going on with the earth. Very interesting thought.

Okay....back for the night! My son might have a shot at going to state this year for discus, so I'm excited!


Right about now is when Robin needs to pop in and talk about his ground saturation theory. Right? Water....water and the moon. I just don't like this combination we have going right now.

I have spent a bit of time looking around the local seismos and while there continue to be some odd spikes, no notable quakes. I am so paranoid now...my house is settling a bit (probably because the sun is shining on it for the first time in quite a while!)....and I am just poised for the shaking to start. I'll sure let out a big sigh of relief when I wake in the morning and realize we made it through the night without anything happening. Maybe then I will get a good nights sleep in over a week???

Okay...off to check the schedule for the moon. Gotta get a good picture of it!!

Everyone stay safe.

Two more earthquakes in the same location as the 2.9. Although quite small. 1.5 and 1.4.
But in the same location.... Which I posted earlier is the same location as the Nisqually Quake. I'm not saying anything , just posting..

Okay guys....hoping this isn't a foreshock:


Magnitude 4.4
Date-Time Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 04:20:39 UTC
Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 09:20:39 PM at epicenter

Location 49.910°N, 128.216°W
Depth 9.9 km (6.2 miles)
Region VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
Distances 100 km (62 miles) SSW (211°) from Port Hardy, BC, Canada
214 km (133 miles) W (269°) from Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
313 km (195 miles) NW (305°) from Neah Bay, WA
373 km (232 miles) WNW (283°) from Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 24 km (14.9 miles); depth +/- 0.4 km (0.2 miles)
Parameters NST=202, Nph=214, Dmin=375.1 km, Rmss=1.32 sec, Gp=155°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc00027bj

reply to post by westcoast


Ugh. And right when I was starting to relax and think about bed. I at least feel much better about having my friends stock up on water/food, and don't feel like such a ninny.

Also, please tell me I'm seeing that wrong....that isn't on the subduction zone is it?

reply to post by westcoast


Congrats to your son Westcoast!
That Vancouver Island one is a bit of a worry don't you think? Hopefully it's just a little adjustment.

A bit of a worry. I mean...on a 'normal' day, I would definately be paying attention to it, but not overly concerned. However, with those smaller ones in the sound too....and ofcourse it ISN'T a normal day, is it? Something is going to give somewhere.

As to if it is on the subduction zone...possibly. Take a look again at this map:





The array doesn't go up that far, but I believe the subduction zone does.


And for my friends; I made it out to watch the super moon rise tonight! The skies cleared off and I had a most glorious view. Took me a bit to get the ISO settings right because it was so bright...but I think it turned out well enough to give you an idea of how big/bright it is:

I found this image here SOURCE



I think this shows the subduction area going in the area where the 4.4 just was...but I'm totally up for disagreement.

reply to post by onthelookout


LOVE the better, color and info enhanced map. Sorry, but I agree that it was smack dab on the subduction. As I thought, the subduction zone all the way up to where the plate ends, North of vancouver island.

Okay. caving and pulling up GEE.

Muzzy just put this link up on Quake Watch. It may ease your fears a little (or not)

reply to post by onthelookout (and to everyone else!!)

Morning/afternoon/evening everyone...

When I got up and like always went to check the quake maps and I saw that mag 4.4 quake off Van Island, I immediately thought: "Now, that's a bit unusual," because you don't often see quakes of that size (or bigger) bang on the subduction zone boundary. More commonly, they are west of there, either on the Juan De Fuca plate or towards its ridge side or the strike/slip zones north and south.

However, there is no doubt that this one is bang on the subduction zone. For confirmation, here's the location map image for this quake, that shows it on the purple (subduction boundary) line:


You can check this at this link. (Note: link will likely drop off the system in about 7 days. This is normal for "smaller" quakes.)

And I can also confirm that quakes right on that subduction zone boundary are rare. Here's the historic seismicity map:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/537db4239d0c.jpg[/atsimg]
And again, you can check it at this link (Note: like I said just now, it'll drop off the system. That's why I've posted copies.)

I think it's important to note that there have been other quakes along that subduction boundary over the past several years -- and nothing drastic resulted. All the same, it's worth keeping an eye on it.

Regarding all the smaller quakes in that region that Muzzy posted (on quake watch) and Zenius linked to (many thanks!! ), I'd rather not comment too much on them without seeing a lot more data for a much longer period. Is it a swarm, or is it just pretty normal activity? I don't know.

It is telling, though, that this mag 4.4 is the biggest quake in that region since the mag 9.0 in Japan on March 11. I don't think we can take this as any proof of remote triggering from the Japan quake, though. (Such an event in a seismically active region cannot be taken as "proof". It's just possible evidence.) However, it's good to have it recorded in any case.

The other fact we need to bear in mind is that while this subduction zone is our main focus, it's not the end of the matter by a long shot. There is a subduction zone that continues right on up the coast from there, all past Canada and on up around Alaska (and beyond). I don't know if any detailed studies have been published on the relationships between the Cascadia subduction zone and the one/s that I've just mentioned. That's another thing we need to check.

Mike

Thanks for the maps JustMike...it is always good to have visuals.

As the 'swarm' map....holy crap. I had no idea those quakes were occuring. I guess it is because they were under the threshold for USGS...although in regards to this region, come on!! The 2.5 should be extended North,because one look at this map and you see the obvious implications here!

I am feeling a bit stupid now because I never thought to look up a canadian link for quakes in that area. I thought the 'vancouver' office for PNSN would extend to the Northern end of the plate and oh....I going to start rambling now.

In light of that map and the recent 4.4, the calm I was feeling after waking up this morning and being past the 19th is now gone. Not liking it one bit.