Volcano watch 2010

A Google Earth snapshot of the 8 volcanoes plus Merapi shows a very widespread area of Indonesia where the volcanoes have started to rumble. From north west of the 7.7 earthquake to east of Merapi. Sorry I don't know how to insert the image here in which they are placemarked.

Latest update from Eruptions
bigthink.com...

and from there, see this AMAZING collection of stills and video from James Reynolds. You don't want to miss this.
www.typhoonfury.com...

I wasn't sure which Thread to put my thinking down in with everything that is going on - so, I put it Here.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1c8cb2a74f41.jpg[/atsimg]

news.nationalgeographic.com...#/mount-merapi -ash-building_28103_600x450.jpg

The images are very compelling and sad.

20 October-26 October 2010

New Activity/Unrest: | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Merapi, Central Java (Indonesia) | Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island
Ongoing Activity: | Chaitén, Southern Chile | Fuego, Guatemala | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Pacaya, Guatemala | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) | Villarrica, Central Chile
This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

New Activity/Unrest

KLIUCHEVSKOI Central Kamchatka (Russia) 56.057°N, 160.638°E; summit elev. 4835 m

KVERT reported that during 15-22 October seismic activity from Kliuchevskoi was above background levels and two lava flows from the summit crater traveled down the SW and W flanks. Satellite imagery analyses showed a large and intense daily thermal anomaly over the volcano and ash plumes that drifted 420 km E and SE. Strombolian activity, observed every day, ejected material 250 m above the crater. Ash plumes rose to an altitude of 7.5 km (24,600 ft) a.s.l. during 20-21 October and to an altitude of 6.5 km (21,300 ft) a.s.l. on the other days during 15-22 October. The Aviation Color Code level remained at Orange.

On 23 October, KVERT reported increased seismicity, characterized by an abrupt change in volcanic tremor, and explosive activity. Ash plumes rose to altitudes of 8-9 km (26,200-29,500 ft) a.s.l. and drifted more than 300 km N. The Aviation Color Code level was raised to Red. The next day the magnitude of tremor decreased and gas-and-steam plumes rose to an altitude of 6.5 km (21,300 ft) a.s.l. Gas-and-steam plumes possibly containing ash drifted SE. The Aviation Color Code level was lowered to Orange. On 25 October, the magnitude of volcanic tremor fluctuated. Ash plumes rose to altitudes of 8-8.5 km (26,200-27,900 ft) a.s.l. and drifted SE. The Aviation Color Code level was again raised to Red. The VAAC reported on 26 October that ash was observed in satellite imagery.

Geologic Summary. Kliuchevskoi is Kamchatka's highest and most active volcano. Since its origin about 7,000 years ago, the beautifully symmetrical, 4,835-m-high basaltic stratovolcano has produced frequent moderate-volume explosive and effusive eruptions without major periods of inactivity. More than 100 flank eruptions, mostly on the NE and SE flanks of the conical volcano between 500 m and 3,600 m elevation, have occurred during the past 3,000 years. The morphology of its 700-m-wide summit crater has been frequently modified by historical eruptions, which have been recorded since the late-17th century. Historical eruptions have originated primarily from the summit crater, but have also included major explosive and effusive events from flank craters.

MERAPI Central Java (Indonesia) 7.542°S, 110.442°E; summit elev. 2968 m

CVGHM reported that from the end of September to 20 October the rate of inflation at Merapi was 0.6 cm per day. On 21 October the rate increased to 10.5 cm per day, and incidents of incandescence from the lava dome increased. CVGHM raised the Alert Level to 3 (on a scale of 1-4). The rate of inflation increased sharply on 24 October to a rate of 42 cm per day. The next day, CVGHM raised the Alert Level to 4, and recommended immediate evacuation for several communities (news reports estimated 11,000-19,000 people) within a 10-km radius.

An eruption began at about 1700 on 26 October that was characterized by explosions along with pyroclastic flows that traveled WSW and SE. CVGHM reported that multiple pyroclastic flows occurred until 1854, when the pyroclastic flow activity started to subside. Most of the pyroclastic flows lasted 2 to 9 minutes, except for two that lasted 33 minutes each. Booming noises were heard, and incandescence from the crater was seen from the Selo observation post to the N. An ash plume was also observed rising 1.5 km above the crater.

According to news articles, officials noted that about 15,000 people had not yet evacuated, even though several minor eruptions had already occurred prior to 26 October. Reports on 27 October noted that about 25 people died and several were injured.

Geologic Summary. Merapi, one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes, lies in one of the world's most densely populated areas and dominates the landscape immediately N of the major city of Yogyakarta. The steep-sided modern Merapi edifice, its upper part unvegetated due to frequent eruptive activity, was constructed to the SW of an arcuate scarp cutting the eroded older Batulawang volcano. Pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome have devastated cultivated and inhabited lands on the volcano's western-to-southern flanks and caused many fatalities during historical time. The volcano is the object of extensive monitoring efforts by the Merapi Volcano Observatory (MVO).

Map

Sources: Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), Associated Press, Associated Press, The Jakarta Globe, BBC News

Merapi Information from the Global Volcanism Program

PITON DE LA FOURNAISE Reunion Island 21.231°S, 55.713°E; summit elev. 2632 m

OVPDLF reported that an eruption from Piton de la Fournaise that began on 14 October from a fissure near the Château Fort crater, about 1.5 km SE of the Dolomieu crater rim, continued during 19-25 October. On 19 October, explosive and degassing activity from vents along the fissure increased, but was still below the intensity noted at the beginning of the eruption. During 20-21 October small lava fountains fed lava flows that traveled as far as 2 km E and SE. Decreased gas emissions were concentrated to the S and W of the fissure. During 22-24 October fountains and gas emissions originated from one vent, and lava traveled ESE. Gas emissions decreased significantly.

Geologic Summary. Massive Piton de la Fournaise shield volcano on the island of Réunion is one of the world's most active volcanoes. Most historical eruptions have originated from the summit and flanks of a 400-m-high lava shield, Dolomieu, that has grown within the youngest of three large calderas. This depression is 8 km wide and is breached to below sea level on the eastern side. More than 150 eruptions, most of which have produced fluid basaltic lava flows within the caldera, have been documented since the 17th century. The volcano is monitored by the Piton de la Fournaise Volcano Observatory, one of several operated by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris.

Map

Source: Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise (OVPDLF)

Piton de la Fournaise Information from the Global Volcanism Program

the source
www.volcano.si.edu...

Mr. Lee:

I have been watching the big island since your first prediction about increasing after the 20th of this month, and I must say that I have been a little disturbed by the increase in quakes there, that appear to still be building. I hope that you are wrong...but if not, at least you are getting the info out there.

MAP 4.1 2010/10/30 01:09:25 20.145 -155.502 34.6 8 km ( 5 mi) ENE of Kukuihaele, HI
MAP 1.8 2010/10/29 08:34:58 19.234 -155.412 33.4 8 km ( 5 mi) ENE of Pahala, HI
MAP 2.1 2010/10/28 22:57:04 19.261 -155.090 48.7 24 km ( 15 mi) S of Fern Forest, HI
MAP 2.5 2010/10/28 18:07:38 19.410 -155.281 0.0 7 km ( 4 mi) SW of Volcano, HI
MAP 1.9 2010/10/28 05:57:59 19.405 -155.034 4.8 12 km ( 8 mi) SE of Eden Roc, HI
MAP 2.6 2010/10/27 22:19:31 19.430 -155.491 9.0 25 km ( 16 mi) N of Pahala, HI
MAP 2.5 2010/10/27 13:35:42 19.392 -155.260 2.9 7 km ( 4 mi) SSW of Volcano, HI
MAP 1.7 2010/10/27 11:44:58 19.267 -155.427 33.5 9 km ( 6 mi) NE of Pahala, HI
MAP 1.9 2010/10/27 08:13:11 19.212 -155.260 28.9 23 km ( 14 mi) E of Pahala, HI
MAP 1.8 2010/10/27 07:38:55 19.267 -155.365 49.1 14 km ( 9 mi) ENE of Pahala, HI
MAP 2.4 2010/10/27 04:39:32 19.192 -155.661 6.7 15 km ( 9 mi) NE of Hawaiian Ocean View, HI
MAP 3.0 2010/10/26 02:58:17 19.362 -156.356 29.6 48 km ( 30 mi) WSW of Kahaluu-Keauhou, HI
MAP 2.0 2010/10/25 01:14:29 19.286 -155.220 8.3 18 km ( 11 mi) S of Volcano, HI
MAP 2.3 2010/10/24 18:15:44 19.373 -155.379 14.0 17 km ( 11 mi) WSW of Volcano, HI
MAP 1.7 2010/10/24 07:10:00 19.233 -155.433 7.0 6 km ( 4 mi) NE of Pahala, HI


LINK

I have been checking this thread out for a while now,and I wanted to take the time out to say,
THANK YOU!!! To each and every one of you who contribute your time and knowledge to this..

Originally posted by westcoast
Mr. Lee:

I have been watching the big island since your first prediction about increasing after the 20th of this month, and I must say that I have been a little disturbed by the increase in quakes there, that appear to still be building. I hope that you are wrong...but if not, at least you are getting the info out there.

Well you know me westcoast, I love graphs and stuff. This is 365 days of Hawaii cumulative, which I think clearly shows as I stated before in my questions to Mr Lee that there is no increase in activity.



I note that Mr Lee declined to reply to my questions about how the lava would flow uphill to Hilo over the crater rim when there is an easier lower escape to the south west.

Sorry but so far his prediction of a major swarm in the last 2 weeks of October before the crater fills with lava in November has proven to be the load of BS that I thought it was. I still say it is BS and his prediction is not worth the screen space.

Just for good measure here are the magnitudes for the past 365 days looking pretty even



Of course this does not prove it cannot happen but I think it unlikely given the current data.

And 90 days cumulative if you think 365 is too much.

reply to post by PuterMan


Once again, Puterman, you do not disapoint. You know how I love your graphs! Looking at them, I can tell that it only SEEMS to me that it was suddenly increasing, because I just so happened to start paying closer attention when it had a little cluster (as shown on your graph)...but in the bigger, over-all picture, it is NOT out of the norm.

Just another very good example of how these long rolling events can appear to be something it isn't when not seen in complete context. Thank you!

Anak Krakatau has erupted.

What in the world is happening?

Originally posted by berkeleygal
Anak Krakatau has erupted.

What in the world is happening?

a very awesome time to be on earth.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/bd79625430f4.jpg[/atsimg]

www.tribunnews.com...

And here's the always interesting google chrome translation

TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA - The tourists who want to make a trip to see the beauty of Mount Anak Krakatau activity is recommended so as not to fall to the ground to close. The recommended safe distance is 2 kilometers from the volcano of Anak Krakatau. "Tourists are not banned, just as long as the waters are advised not to go down to the ground. A safe distance about 2 miles," said Officer Observation Post Mount Anak Krakatau, Anton when contacted by phone on Saturday (10/30/2010).

According to Anton conditions around the area of Anak Krakatau volcano is still considered safe. In fact, continued Anton himself, also allow the community who want to see wisps of smoke from the volcano activity of Anak Krakatau. "In fact, it took a good look at the picture of Anak Krakatau volcano smoke," he said.

As known earlier, the alert status given to the eight volcanoes in Indonesia. That is, the status of the eight mountain hazards are located on level two. Alert status of Mount Anak Krakatau has been embedded since October 31, 2009 and the last four days, the number of eruptions over 100 times. (*)

reply to post by anon72

There's also another Russian volcano "waking up", just yesterday!!
Shiveluch volcano wakes up again

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8cae4b8623bd.jpg[/atsimg]

Mt. Shiveluch on Russia’s Far Eastern Kamchatka peninsula is spewing volcanic ash up to 10 kilometers into the sky and stretching for more than 160 kilometers eastwards.

The area above the giant volcano has been declared a no-fly zone.

What the hell is going on?

Originally posted by harrytuttle

What the hell is going on?

Nothing

These two are always doing this.

For example: Note the previous alert was higher

Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic Activity
KVERT INFORMATION RELEASE 57-10
October 30, 2010, 05:53 UTC (17:53 KDT)

SHEVELUCH VOLCANO: 56°39'N, 161°21'E; Elevation 3,283 m, the
dome elevation ~2,500 m
CURRENT AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
PREVIOUS AVIATION COLOR CODE IS RED

Explosive-extrusive eruption of the volcano continues.
Possibility of ash explosions up to 10.0 km (up to 32,800
ft) ASL remains. The activity of the volcano could affect
international and low-flying aircraft.

Strong paroxysmal explosive eruption of the volcano finished
but a possibility of separate strong ash explosions at the
volcano remains. Moderate seismic activity of the volcano
continues. According to video data, the volcano obscured by
clouds. According to satellite data, there were ash plumes
not registered on October 30.
www.kscnet.ru...

Guess Eyjafjallajokull is history now!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by PuterMan


I saw that too. We can't even see her on Mila now, they are supposedly "upgrading" the cameras. Sigh.

Grimsvotn, another Icelandic volcano, is about to erupt. Maybe in 4-5 days! Expect the eruption by 5 November

However this is not strange. Grimsvotn is an Iceland volcano that has been erupting about every 6 years during past decades. In the past few weeks, the volcano showed increase harmonic tremor, earthquakes and GPS inflation, all signs of an approaching eruption.

A few hours ago, the rivers that drain the glacier where the volcano is located have began to rise in flow, indicating that a glacial flood is underway and that an eruption is very likely to start within the next 4-5 days. This is a pattern that occured before in 2004 and 1996. Last time, in 2004 Grimsvotn caused some flight disruption in Europe. So, expect the same again.

www.mbl.is...

Grimsvotn has produced the 1783 catastrophic Laki eruption, but recently the volcano has been having only small eruptions.

well, here we go again

tremor chart for grimsfjall
hraun.vedur.is...

Mila cams get ready!

reply to post by berkeleygal


You know I am getting sick of all the scaremongering that goes on on ATS. Read the reports properly everyone and look at the data, then make a reasoned judgement. Yes there might be a sub-glacial eruption, but at present there is not.

If this goes on much more I think I am going to leave ATS to it's own devices.

I did say a long time ago that I consider the Grimsvotn area and Hekla as the two possible starting places for the next Icelandic eruption, but am I jumping up and down? No. Yet not quite as much as Spacedman this is sort of on my doorstep so I have an interest in getting it right.

Edit: This post on the sensationalist thread about it confirms what I am saying:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Volcano in Iceland about to blow...WOW

AN Icelandic volcano has shown signs it could be about to burst into life, just months after an eruption from another volcano caused Europe's biggest air shutdown since World War II. "The water levels have tripled in (the river) Gigja since last night," water measurement specialist Gunnar Sigurdsson of the Icelandic Meteorological Institute told AFP.

www.heraldsun.com.au...