Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?

Originally posted by Donkey_Dean
reply to post by HunkaHunka

 

IT'S H1N1, ANYTHING THAT SAYS OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DISCRETTED AS PROPOGANDA. PLEASE SEE MY POST ABOVE, I KNOW ITS LONG BUT IT IS IMPORTANT!

Okay dude. Calm down. Don't make like Richard Simmons from the Nutty-Proffessor movie and get so excited. Or else you'll have to change your name from 'Donkey Dean' to 'Howard Dean'. =]

Seriously. All kidding aside. Dean is right. The actual numbers of swine-flu related deaths is actually lower than what you expect at face value based on what the general media tells you. And then again; let's face it--Ukraine is an under-developed nation just like Mexico. (Which is where swine-flu began in the first place.) So many people are sick from so many other things aside from swine-flu in places like these. That it is hard to tell apart a swine-flu victim apart from someone who is sick from something else.

Can anyone please confirm 600+ death! We should focus on that -how many deaths- and not what it is or not.
I tell you, if we went from 37 yesterday to 600+ on 24h we better run whatever name they put on it.

Quarantine areas in Ukraine:
multimedia.donbass.ua... .thumbnail.jpg

reply to post by Marked One

Flu viruses mutate, so if it's a flu strain it could be a mutation and could be related to the high radiation levels that exist in some regions of the Ukraine. I discussed this briefly back in this post on page 10. The fact is that in spite of some rather strident protests on this thread by a few members to the contrary (who apparently know more about this than the treating medical specialists in the Ukraine), we won't really know what the pathogen is until the analysis of samples is complete and the results are released. That is, if they even release the true details, which we can't be sure of anyway.

At least one member here has stated that we have "paid posters" who are using threads like this one to create panic and encourage us to take flu shots. Well, that might be true. I simply don't know who the "paid" posters are or even if there are any in fact. (It wouldn't surprise me, though.)

But I'll say this: I'm not panicked. I am concerned, which is not surprising, considering we have large numbers of workers coming to this country from the Ukraine and other points east of us. They don't need to get on a plane and fly here; they can come by bus, train, car, or even hitch a ride on a truck. The Czech Republic is one of the main "through ways" for trucks heading east and west throughout Europe, even as far as Turkey. It's a direct route, has pretty good highways, low toll rates and almost no highway policing to speak of.

So, if something truly virulent has broken out in the Ukraine, it's likely that their measures to stop it spreading are already too late. They won't put a halt to all transport movement as they need the goods and the export trade as well. Even if they do go into total lock down, I would expect that plenty of people have already left and gone back to their home countries.

Containment of an outbreak in such a population-mobile region as Europe is virtually impossible.

But does that mean I'm going off to my doctor to get a flu shot? Nope. I haven't had a flu shot since I was legally old enough to decide for myself that I didn't want them and I'm not going to have one now.

My wife retired not long ago after about 40 years in health care, mainly at the hospital up the road from where we live. She's talked to doctors she knows there, and their common opinion has been that this latest flu vaccine
was not adequately tested, so they aren't getting it, and for the most part, they are not recommending it for their patients either.

So, no amount of hype by a few possibly-paid posters is going to change my mind. This situation in the Ukraine is serious, but there's no point in panicking. Being cautious and using natural remedies to assist our bodies' own immune systems is certainly a good idea.

Mike

Deadly virus reached Kyiv: 21 year old woman dies in hospital.
teren.uaforums.net...

reply to post by gusan

The link that was provided which referenced 602 deaths was for a chat room, where someone made that statement. Far as I can see, the person did not provide any reference.

We can say anything we like in a chat room and remain virtually anonymous. Saying it doesn't make it a fact.

I have been checking media sources of various types here in Europe and I have not found any source that reports this figure of over 600 deaths for the Ukraine. (However I'm still checking just to make sure.)

Also, the mortality rate is what we should be concerned about, not just a single figure quoted with no context. Normal seasonal flu kills people every year. But its mortality rate is around 0.1%, many of them being people who already have pre-existing conditions that make death more likely. The mortality rate for the "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1918 is estimated at around 2.5%, which would have been pretty scary, especially as many who died were not in the "typical" group for flu-related mortality.

Until we have some good, solid data that tell us the number of infections versus deaths that are a direct result of the infection, then numbers that someone gives out on a chat room are nothing to get concerned about. That same person could easily have written 6002 or 60,200. Such statements always need to be independently verified.


Mike

reply to post by JustMike


you are focusing on "take the shot or not" forget that, there are allready tons of those threads and most of us has allready made a desission on that.

If you knew we got from 37 to 600 deaths in 24h and next numbers are even worse..you would not care what it is, i meen you would not sit and wait for the Ukr authoritiies to lable the plague..
So we just need to keep track on how serious this gets so we know when its time to put our emergency plan in action. You know, like close the doors ;-)
Been to prague twice..beautiful city!

reply to post by ahemot

Again, this is from a chat room. What the person said may be true but we need to wait for confirmation from a reliable source. (She said that it hasn't hit the news media yet.) We also need to consider that Kiev has the most extensive medical facilities: they may be moving seriously-ill patients to the big Kiev hospitals from infected regions, especially if the regional medical centers are being overwhelmed.

Mike

I'm a paid poster! =)

(By which I mean I am getting paid WHILE I'm on my iTouch posting messages on ATS...because--guess what? I'm at work right now and I'm on break. Get it?)

Seriously. It's been like five days since I took my seasonal flu shot + the H1N1 shot. (Both on the same day--each in a different arm.)

And guess what? I feel just fine!

I'll let you all know if I turn into a zombie from the video game, Resident Evil, or something. lol.

reply to post by gusan

Fair comment that I focused on the "take the shot or not" situation. I think it's relevant to this thread. I'm living in Central Europe. We have had some Ukrainian workers in our building the past few days doing renovations. We have many workers here from nearby countries. Like many Europeans, it's a matter I think is important. I was also referring to other posters who imply that some people are using threads like these to try to get us to have flu shots. I said why I won't.

If the moderators disagree they can remove the post.

Edit:

I made the point about death rate versus net numbers in a following post. I hope that what I said is clear. If you look at research of previous epidemics and pandemics, they don't just consider the number of deaths, but the percentage of infected people who died. The mortality rate is a key factor in deciding how dangerous an infection is.

Extra Edit: Gusan, I need to point out that I am not criticizing you or any members who post information that comes from chat rooms. I appreciate the effort you make to give us these links and I am sure many members do. They are still sources and sometimes they get the details long before the media do. I thank you for taking the time to post the links!

I'm just saying that we have to be cautious about what we do with this information until it can be checked by other sources.

[end of edits]
Mike

[edit on 31/10/09 by JustMike]

I have a cousin staying in Italy right now. I hope he leaves before they decide to put the entire continent under quarantine lockdown.

(That is to say--assuming they do. But if they don't? Even better.)



[edit on 10/31/09 by Marked One]

Information from Odessa (southern Ukraine):
6 schools and 2 sanatoria converted to quarantine zones.
Crematoriums of Odessa under protection of special police unit "Berkut".
Internal ministry troops recalled to their barracks.
forum.sevastopol.info...

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by Marked One

 

Flu viruses mutate, so if it's a flu strain it could be a mutation and could be related to the high radiation levels that exist in some regions of the Ukraine. I discussed this briefly back in this post on page 10.

I kinda figured someone already brought that up. I missed it though. Mainly because I didn't feel like sifting through every page's worth of posts cause I don't have the time. I like to just save time and skip straight to the "meat & potatoes" so to speak. By which I mean the very last couple of pages.

I noticed earlier, that some posters are still questioning whether this Ukraine virus outbreak is actually "just" H1N1 swine flu, and others were still undecided as to whether the "swine flu" was naturally occuring or not?

The early posts from within Ukraine all concurred that only one or two deaths were from H1N1 swine flu, and that the vast majority of the deaths were from an as yet UNKNOWN virus, with pneumonic plague like symptoms.

Not H1N1.

As for the chances of the 2009 H1N1 occuring naturally?

From wikipedia

H1N1 on Wikipedia

"In the 2009 flu pandemic, the virus isolated from patients in the United States was found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – "an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences."[12] This new strain appears to be a result of reassortment of human influenza and swine influenza viruses, in all four different strains of subtype H1N1."



The genetic change that enables a flu strain to jump from one animal species to another, including humans, is called "ANTIGENIC SHIFT".

Antigenic shift can happen in 3 ways.

A. A duck or other aquatic bird passes a bird strain of influenza A to an intermediate host, such as a chicken or pig.
A person passes a human strain of influenza A to the same chicken or pig.
When the viruses infect the same cell, the genes from the bird strain mix with genes from the human strain to yield a new strain.
The new strain can then spread from the intermediate host to humans.
The new strain may further evolve to spread from person to person, if so, a flu pandemic could arise.

B. Without undergoing a genetic change, a bird strain of influenza A can jump directly from a duck or other aquatic bird to humans.
The new strain may further evolve to spread from person to person, if so, a flu pandemic could arise.

C. Without undergoing genetic change, a bird strain of influenza A can jump directly from a duck or other aquatic bird, to an intermediate animal host, and then to humans.
The new strain may further evolve to spread from person to person, if so, a flu pandemic could arise.


So, in summary, for the 2009 strain of "swine flu" to come into being naturally...

Either A:
A Duck or other bird, with avian flu, passed this avian flu to a pig, who was already suffering from a variant of swine flu, and this pig was also then infected by a human who was carrying the human influenza virus. The pig would then have to come into contact with another pig, from a different continent, which was also suffering from a different variant of swine flu. Then re-infect a human?

or B:
A duck or other bird, with avian flu, passed this directly to a human, who already had (or subsequently got infected with) human influenza. The human would also, at some point, have had to come into contact with two different pigs, from two different continents, who had been infected with the N.American and the Asian/European swine flu viruses.

or C:
A duck or other bird, with avian flu, infected a pig, which had a strain of swine flu, this pig also contracted a different strain of swine flu, (from another continent), and then infected a human, who was suffering with human influenza.

or...

Technicians in a dollar-driven Pharmaceutical companies Laboratory, combined various strains of influenza, to create a new strain of flu, which they then "accidentally" released onto an unsuspecting public.
The same pharmaceutical company then remarkably manage to come up with a vaccination for this new virus, and charge our governments, i.e. YOU and ME, billions of dollars to vaccinate against.

Tough one.... you decide!

G

reply to post by ahemot


Why is not any of this reported in the mainstream media?

If true - this is potentially quite serious.

reply to post by JustMike


I think we agree.
Only, we have been discussing h1n1 and even now we dont agree, it is only a lot of dissinformation from any side guarding their interesst.
On the threads we go on and on no matter evidence or who said what, all keep speculating.

In this specific case, i think the most important thing is wether the killing rate is enormous or not, i dont care for any speculation on what it is, mutation, simple h1n1 take the shot or not. How many people are death of how many infected? The answer to this question is what i will base my desissions on. All other info i see as speculation, dissinformation or whatelse and i ignore it. I am not a dr, no university...just anormal father worried about this.

Not sure if anyone has posted this link yet.

More than 30 people have died in the Ukraine as a result of a mysterious new virus that has an affinty for the lungs, according to reports in Switzerland.

The Ukranian Health Ministry has said that the origin of the virus is unknown, but its affinity for the lungs and the way it attacks young people strongly suggests it is a virulent form of the H1N1"swine flu" virus.

WHO recently confirmed that the H1N1 virus showed no signs of mutating to become more virulent. The emergence of this virulent strain could, therefore, be linked with the activities of scientists, such as Professor Bruno Lina in France, who was actively searching for a virulence gene.

Almost 40,000 people have fallen sick with 951 people having to be hospitalised.

Link

Notice first of all that there are swine flu cases, which is probably the mayority of the 40,000 infected. Only two have died from swine flu, meanwhile at least 28 more have died from an unknown virus, which could be a new strain of swine flu, or something else.

From the 19-29 of October there were 6 deaths. Then the deaths jumped to at least 30 on the 29th.

The OP says there are 37 deads at least. Will check to see if any other sources confirm this.


[edit on 31-10-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Ukraine Orders Mobile Military Hospitals for H1N1 Caseload

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko ordered the Defense Ministry to prepare a mobile military hospitals.

According to an UNIAN correspondent, he told reporters.

V. Yushchenko said that today should provide the necessary number of places for patients.

The president said the Defense Ministry order for the deployment of mobile mobile hospitals, which will be raised if necessary.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has said that drugs to combat pandemic influenza A/H1N1 long enough, but he would ask the world community, if the need arises for additional resources.

www.recombinomics.com...

Actually according to this.

// 30.10.2009 // 20:56 //
NEWS FLASH! Highest epidemic of swine flu in Ukraine!
MIGnews.com.ua
Health Minister Vasyl Knyazevych reported that 31 samples were taken from sick people in order to determine whether they fall under the diagnosis of swine flu, of which 11 cases have been confirmed. "It is the interpretation of the result," - he said, adding that on 29 October in Ukraine, 951 people were hospitalized with acute respiratory infections and influenza. As for 30 cases of death, recorded from 19 to 29 October, he reported that the sample was taken only in one case, and the diagnosis was confirmed (A (H1N1)).

mignews.com.ua...

One of the deaths has been confirmed as swine flu, the rest of the 29 seem to be from this unknown virus.

The mayority of the infections are from swine flu.

reply to post by gusan

Exactly. It's the mortality rate (and of course the ease of infection) that's of concern here, just as in the case of any infectious outbreak.

I have children and very young grandchildren, so I'm also concerned that there have been several cases of deaths of children reported. Again, we don't know if these were children who were previously healthy or already ill. It's too early to know that. But we have to watch closely.

Another poster just commented that this is not being reported in the mainstream media. Well, that depends on where you are. Our Czech TV networks reported this last night, including the Ukraine's decision to limit movement and effectively close borders. It's also in the main daily newspapers this morning.

I previously commented that some western MSM may have their own agenda and are not reporting this, so it looks like that is still the case. Either that, or they just don't think it's important enough.

It would be interesting for members to comment if they are getting mainstream media reports in their own country or not. We can then get an idea of who is hiding what, and consider political motivations. After all, Breaking Alternative News is for stories where a conspiracy might be involved, and this one seems to qualify on several levels.

Mike