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Originally posted by TPL
I wish these bleeding things would speed up (if they exist) i cant wait to say i told you so to several people, at least then i might die happy in the knowledge that i was right and that i knew before them!
I wote:wait you lost me a bit we are talking of the "25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36)" asteroid right?
According to NASA's "Ephemeris generator" it will miss us for 0.0129105546 AU (Astronomical Units) or for 5 LS (lunar distance)
on date 26th or 27th June 2004.
1 AU = 149,597,871 kilometers
1 LD = 384,401 kilometers
1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU
Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC APmag r rdot delta deldot S-T-O Cnst
2004-Jun-26 20:00 06 05 29.07 -56 17 28.5 13.05 1.0143442660 5.22842 0.0128971142 0.00154 99.5714 Pic
Link: ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...
So the closes distance from earth is 0.0128971142 AU
ITOKAWA will gradually close to earth and, on June 26, 2004, it will be closest to earth with distance of 0.013AU (about 1.95 million km). But, unfortunately, it will be then located at the south hemisphere. It is estimated that the asteroid will become about twelfth magnitude (about 1,500 times brighter compared to the present).
And there are not 2 large iron chunks travelling with it and it's not enveloped in a dust cloud from a supernova unlike our Aussie Bloke seems to be. Take another hit, AB!
Originally posted by NothingMakesSense
(a lot of info about the projected impact deleted for brevity)
Impact Effects
Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins
Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 1000.00 km = 621.00 miles
Projectile Diameter: 1818.55 m = 5964.86 ft = 1.13 miles
Projectile Density: 1500 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 99.82 km/s = 61.99 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 1500 kg/m3
Target Type: Competent Rock or saturated soil
Energy:
2.35 x 1022 Joules = 5.62 x 106 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 1.7 x 107years
Crater Size:
What does this mean?
Transient Crater Diameter: 34.59 km = 21.48 miles
Final Crater Diameter: 55.15 km = 34.25 miles
The crater formed is a complex crater.
Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?
The fireball is below the horizon. There is no direct thermal radiation.
Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 200.0 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 9.1
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 1000 km:
III. Felt indoors. Hanging objects swing. Vibration like passing of light trucks. Duration estimated. may not be recognized as an earthquake.
IV. Hanging objects swing. Vibration like passing of heavy trucks; or sensation of a jolt like a heavy ball striking the walls. Standing motor cars rock. Windows, dishes, doors rattle. Glasses clink. Crockery clashes. In the upper range of IV wooden walls and frame creak.
Ejecta:
What does this mean?
The ejecta will arrive approximately 494.4 seconds after the impact.
Average Ejecta Thickness: 1.5 cm = 0.59 inches
Mean Fragment Diameter: 820 micrometers = 32.29 1/1000 of an inch
Air Blast:
What does this mean?
The air blast will arrive at approximately 3333.3 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 28220.4 Pa = 0.2822 bars = 4.0073 psi
Max wind velocity: 54.3 m/s = 121.4 mph
Sound Intensity: 89 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:
Glass windows will shatter.
About 30 percent of trees blown down; remainder have some branches and leaves blown off.