Air France Plane down

reply to post by Harlequin


I'm going with electrical failure - that came before cabin rate. Since I said it, there's 100% chance I"m wrong. We'll see.

[edit on 2/6/2009 by C0bzz]

either way - it`ll be put down to pilot error for flying through the TS and CB

reply to post by ::.mika.::


On the pprune forums, I was quoting a post (not mine) from there not speaking first person. Someone on that forum "claims to have read some where" etc etc.

I'd love to know where the poster read it originally as well.

I'm searching for any references to any previous incident with that particular air frame, will post back here if I find anything.

Not sure if it was stated earlier but Brazilian Airforce has encountered ocean debris of metal and seats.

Originally posted by who-me?
Heres a post I put in the other slightly less than investigative thread on this subject..:

The following text is quote from PPRuNe Forums. (Professional Pilots Rumour Network)

I read somewhere that Air France 447's wing touched an A320 rudder in a taxi incident prior to departure. The A320's rudder was severely damaged, but AF447's A330 wingtip was not. AF447 departed, and is now missing.

First things first: Did the taxi incident occur?

Answers to big problems or issues are often simple. Here is one possibility: AF447's wing was weakened if not visibly damaged; the airplane suffered stresses during flight via flight in turbulence; the damaged, stressed wing broke off; the airplane plummeted into the sea.

What supports this?

1. Alleged taxi incident involving A320 and AF447.
2. Alleged time delay of four minutes from altitude to impact.
3. No calls from the pilots.
4. Sudden spurt of messages sent to base: multiple system failures.
5. Item 3. and 4. indicate an inflight breakup.
6. Airplanes don't fall out of the sky for no reason.

[edit on 2/6/2009 by who-me?]Added quote tags for clarity.

[edit on 2/6/2009 by who-me?]

Assuming the wing did drop out, will there be still time to send a mayday? There are 4 minutes as you mentioned.
Also, why arent there bodies discovered yet if that is the case.
A floating body or a person in a luminous lifejacket should be easy to spot IMHO

For you guys in the forum that like Aircraft here is the type of
plane Brazilians are using to search the Air France Airbus:

www.embraerdefensesystems.com.br...

en.wikipedia.org...

The E-99 is an Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft, equipped with the Erieye airborne radar from Ericsson AB of Sweden. The FAB claims that it has 95% of the capability of the larger AWACS aircraft which are in service in the air forces of other nations.

The R-99 is a remote sensing aircraft. It employs a synthetic aperture radar, combination electro-optical and FLIR systems as well as a multi-spectral scanner. The aircraft also possesses signal intelligence and C3I capabilities.

The P-99 is the maritime patrol version of the R-99. It shares much of the same sensor suite as the R-99, but most visibly, lacks the multi-spectral scanner and the side-looking radar. It retains many of the C3I and ELINT capabilities of the R-99B. The P-99 also carries four underwing hardpoints, which can be mounted with a variety of torpedoes and/or anti-ship missiles. Mexico was the launch customer for this variant.

In Brazilian service, the E-99 and R-99 are based in Anapolis AFB. Five E-99s and three R-99s are operated by the Air Force as part of the SIVAM program

Firstly someone mentioned using the radio if a wing had fallen off, they are at approximately 450 to 480 Knots at 35000ft plus. Removal of a wing mid flight would send the remains of the plane spinning wildly out of control, it would be seconds before the rest of the plane broke up, probably starting with the other wing coming off.
You wouldn't be able to use the radio, the g-force upon you if you remained conscious would prevent you from reaching anything.

Here a pic of the plane that was lost. PIC

In that case, why did your calculation of 4 minutes come about?
2nd line.
I think there is more to this. Do you think a person located near the door can escape in time?

A couple that have used the same airplane from Paris-Rio just hours before its return to Paris, said that they suffered an "odd" turbulence during their return to Brazil.

They said the turbulence took all by surprise and crew members started running through the airplane asking everybody to put the seatbelts.
There was no panic and it didnt last long, but they said it wasnt a turbulence as they usually feel.

Folha de Sao Paulo Source
Google translation to ENG

reply to post by hitmen

First off, it wasn't my calc or post, I was quoting from another forum.

I'd guess hes talking about how long he'd expect a plane to fall from cruising altitude to the ocean.
35000ft = 5.7Nmiles straight down. Gives a vertical speed of approx 85knots.

I'm no expert or meteorlogist, but the screen shots I've seen of the weather in the area are frightening. They show a massive, massive cluster of CB supercells.

I live in Tornado Alley in North Texas. In bad weather, we have massive CB supercell formations. The ultra-violent wind shear in these monsters is to be avoided, period.

A Delta flight crashed on approach to DFW in the 1980's due to wind shear downdraft resulting in sudden, drastic descent. Granted, the Air France aircraft was at altitude, but still you cannot go through the core of one of these gigantic supercells which contain fierce updrafts and downdrafts even at high altitude. My understanding is that the supercell CB core can be violent to at least 50K feet in one of these monsters.

It is very common for flights to navigate way around these hazards in the North Texas area and the cells in the screenshots from the equatorial mid-Atlantic were much larger and more powerful than the Texas variety.

My guess is that the flight crew may have made an ill-fated decision to thread the needle and fly what they reckoned would be safely between supercell cores (there was a line of them) and somehow miscalculated and navigated directly into the heart of a beast, were hit with horrendous wind shear violence that as an earlier poster explained "shook" them into multiple malfunctions. These supercells contain extremely strong lightning bolts as well, but my gut feeling is loss of control from multiple failures due to turbulence and shear.

Any flight crew would do well to anticipate the locations of massive, CB supercells and stay the heck out of them. In North Texas, ground control just will not "allow" planes to fly into these monsters.


[edit on 2-6-2009 by switching yard]

I think the main clue as to what happened to the plane is the short circuit which was reported shortly before the plane vanished. I once watched a National geographic programmes named, Aircrash Investigation, which dealt with one flight were a short circuit had caused a cargo bay door to open at 38,000 feet. It too simply disintegrated in seconds. Nobody would have suffered as the massive decompression would have burst the people on boards lungs within seconds of the outer hull being breached.
It's just a theory

The Delta 191 story regarding wind shear...

en.wikipedia.org...

"This accident is one of the few commercial air crashes in which the meteorological phenomenon known as microburst-induced wind shear was a direct contributing factor."

"a thunderstorm formed directly in its path. The aircraft began its descent procedures over Louisiana, heading over the planned descent route. Captain Conners then recognized the forming thunderstorm and took action to change the plane's heading to avoid the turbulent weather.

At Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, weather was also poor and an isolated thunderstorm developed near DFW. The Captain and copilot noticed the isolated storm ahead, but decided to proceed through it anyway, which resulted in the aircraft getting caught up in a microburst.

At about 1500 feet above ground level (460 m), First Officer Price reported seeing lightning in one of the clouds ahead.

At 800 feet (240 m) above ground level, the aircraft accelerated without crew intervention. Although it was supposed to land at 149 knots IAS (276 km/h), it accelerated instead to 173 knots IAS (320 km/h). Price tried to stabilize the aircraft's speed, but Conners had recognized the aircraft's speed increase as a sign of wind shear, and he warned Price to watch the speed.

Suddenly, the airspeed dropped from 173 to 133 knots IAS (320 to 246 km/h), and Price pushed the throttles forward, giving temporary lift. The airspeed then suddenly dropped to 119 knots IAS (220 km/h); on the cockpit voice recording Conners can be heard saying "Hang on to the son of a bitch!"

Loss of control.

Hi Im new to ATS so hi to everyone.Now has anyone thought that the plane may have went down due to an unknown source.Maybe a source similar to The Bermuda Triangle.Also I find it weird how no search vessels have found the plane yet.Its bloody huge so it should hyave been found by now.Also a few months ago I remember I saw a few pages back some people arguing about the magnetic force on one of the pages.Premonition perhaps lol.

reply to post by CaptainObvious321


apparantly you haven`t read this thread , or seen an ocean

if a carrier group can get lost at sea and be difficult to spot - a tiny little aircraft is far easier


anyway they have faound some wreckage - which is really quick.

reply to post by CaptainObvious321


You must be joking my friend!

The Atlantic ocean there is 7000 meters deep.

And a wrecked plane would sink imediately! or in a matter of a few minutes...

If the plane went apart when coming down there is no question about
survivors or a plane to be searched floating in the ocean.

as for well feed sharks its another history.

Originally posted by Harlequin
reply to post by CaptainObvious321

 

apparantly you haven`t read this thread , or seen an ocean

if a carrier group can get lost at sea and be difficult to spot - a tiny little aircraft is far easier


anyway they have faound some wreckage - which is really quick.

Well I've read a few of the pages but Im not going to read all 24 pages.What I meant was if they sent some Aircraft to find the plane they should have found it by now.

dammit, this thread is tooo freaking long.

this type of sudden disappearance reminds me of an accident which too place in 1991:


www.pilotfriend.com...

his would be 004's last transmission. Some twelve minutes later, while climbing through FL240, 004's target disappeared from Bangkok Control's radar screen. Further radio calls from Bangkok went unanswered. Shortly afterwards, Thailand's Department of Aviation's Rescue Co-ordination Centre received a call from from a remote police outpost reporting that people from a mountain village had reported hearing and seeing an aircraft explode in the air and fall into the jungle.
...

Study of the engine cowlings began to reveal a picture of the accident. Inside the cowling of the Pratt & Whitney 4000 engines are rub strips which function as air seals for the fan blades and during takeoff, when maximum aerodynamic forces act on the cowling, the blades lightly touch the strip, creating a rub. Investigation of 004's engines showed that there was a much deeper than normal rub in the cowling and it was down from the top of the cowl, indicating a nosedown pitch moment sometime in flight. Most astonishing however was the finding that the port engine thrust reverser was in the deployed position.

in short, thrust reverse in mid flight sucks, espcially if applied asymmetrically. no distress call either and exploded in mid air, although apprently at lower altitude. (wikipedia says 4k feet, for all it's worth).

just saying.

Don't know if this part has been posted yet, but I just read in the article below that Prince Pedro Luis de Orleans-Braganza, fourth in the line to the throne of the Brazilian crown, was on the plane. This is such a tragedy. My heart goes out to all the victims families and friends.

News article....

www.dailymail.co.uk... der-Bjroy.html

edit: Note- when you click on the link it is not fully working. When the page pops up just click on the news story about the Riverdance star and 11 year old boy as victims. It talks about Prince Pedro in that article.

[edit on 6/2/2009 by wrangell76]

Flying into a supercell... not a good idea...

www.airliners.net...

"I recall that a bizjet had its radome shattered by flying into a hailshaft in clear air a couple thousand feet above a TCU a few years back.

Highest I've ever actually seen was on the Gulf coast, near Mobile - Biloxi a few years back. Must have been fifty miles of red and purple returns and tops reported at seventy two thousand feet.

(he shudders)"

-----

"I have been on airliners flying at ~35k going around cells that just stretched up into the atmosphere and didn't seem to stop...so yes, flying over is not really an option."

-----

"I have actually flown over some nasty stuff over Kansas/ Oklahoma, en-route DEN STL, it wasn't an individual CB, but there were embedded thunderstorms. When they are visible I've never flown over one, only around or right through. On approach to San Jose, Costa Rica about 10 years ago in an AA 727 we flew right through hell, it was the worst aviation experience I've ever had.

For the most part pilots flying IFR just ask for a weather deviation wherever they can, so that they are able to weave in and out of these things. I think the AIM also says that pilots should avoid CB's by 20nm or more to avoid it's effects, such as wind shear etc"

-----

"Jesus... I know that the tropopause gets significantly higher as you go south, but that is nuts. Updraft velocities in the core there were probably upwards of 20,000 feet/minute to get that kind of height, since anything that goes up into the stratosphere is pretty much carried there by momentum.

I can't imagine what the size of the hail that was coming out the bottom of that was... updrafts like that could keep something the size of a small car suspended for a while. Of course, I'm assuming the system was sheared, so there's a little less opportunity for hail development before things get blown out the side."

------

"Thunderstorms this time of year in the midwest regularly get over 30,000 feet. We had some today around STL that had echo tops on the radar of FL550, the summary on the WSI only goes to FL600. At that point, the only option is to fly around. If there's a line of them, that may not even be an option."

-----

"...towering cu are so powerful and so 'well organized' that they kind of create their own atmosphere. You might have a 20000 foot per minute updraft carrying tons of hot, humid, unstable air and it will just punch right through the tropopause"

-----

"Vertical currents (up AND down) even in a puny little CB that tops out in the mid-twenties can easily exceed the climb rate for any airliner you can think of. Rain can flame out engines and cause compressor stalls that will destroy them (Read Southern 242 above) hail can FOD-out engines, shatter windshields (1)

Turbulence is going to be 'severe' and may be 'extreme.' Now I've experienced severe turbulence which damaged my airplanes. We get broken bones and even the occasional fatality from just severe. I've never experienced 'extreme' and do not care to.

So, unless there was some extraordinary circumstance that put you in the red returns, expect to be disciplined by the airline, maybe violated by the FAA just as a minimum."

-----

"Downdrafts are the strongest near the base of the storm. The greatest shearing activity is near the middle of the storm and widens vertically and horizontally as the storm grows in size. near the top at the base of the outflow is where the updrafts reach their greatest velocities.

Turbulence is a change in velocity and or direction in the motion of parcels of air. (the more radical the change is, over a given distance and/or altitude is an indicator of progressively stronger turbulence)"

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[edit on 2-6-2009 by switching yard]