Second wave of flu likely in two months

BBC reports that the UK expects 85% absenteeism from clinics SOON. Clearly there is an expectation that this is going to explode.

news.bbc.co.uk...

reply to post by CultureD
Yep...that's not a very comforting thought is it?

The people/services you'll need most in this crisis won't be there when you need them...

I'd expect a lot of "Critical Service" Intra-Structure not to be completely accessible when maybe >30% of the work force is incapacitated...

peterosbornuk: Of the 173 people sick enough to be hospitalized with swine flu h1n1, over half are in the 5-to-24 age group #swineflu #h1n1 2 minutes ago from web

peterosbornuk: Average age of confirmed and probable cases of swine flu h1n1 is 15 years. Two-thirds younger than 18. #swineflu #h1n1 4 minutes ago from web

[edit on 5/17/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Here's a Re-Post from the other day with the full? text of the article?

From FluTracker Comment Section

Influenza A/H1N1 virus has become more aggressive

"MEXICO CITY, May 15.

Influenza A/H1N1 virus mutated. As the radio «Mayak", said Director of the National Center for disease control in Mexico. According to officials, the changed virus can lead to new outbreaks of influenza, and more aggressive than the current one.

Similar cases have been registered in the United States and Canada. Now scientists have conducted a series of bioispytany. They will get a complete gene sequence of the virus and thereby confirm or refute these assumptions are dangerous.

Earlier, the Minister of Health of Mexico stated that the mutation of influenza virus is much more serious the AIDS virus..."

Use Google Translator to read in english...

www.rosbalt.ru...

Pure stupidity:

Mom swap: Pig suckles baby tigers at zoo
www.msnbc.msn.com...

Tigers and Pigs Swap Roles at Sri Racha Tiger Zoo
www.thaizer.com...

Why is it stupid:

Probable tiger-to-tiger transmission of avian influenza H5N1.

"During the second outbreak of avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand, probable horizontal transmission among tigers was demonstrated in the tiger zoo. Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of those viruses showed no differences from the first isolate obtained in January 2004. This finding has implications for influenza virus epidemiology and pathogenicity in mammals."

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

(PDF) www.cdc.gov.tw...

www.recombinomics.com...

www.recombinomics.com...

I mean, good grief! Are they just begging for it or what?

CDC swine flu report is ‘gross underestimate’
Published: May 16, 2009
Updated 7 hours ago
www.swineflunews.org...

The Center for Disease Control’s official report of 4,714 cases of confirmed or probable swine flu could be underestimating the impact of the disease by around 45,000 cases, according to the deputy director of the CDC’s influenza division.

In a press conference yesterday, Dr. Daniel Jernigan took note of the difficulty in estimating how many Americans are infected with either seasonal or novel influenza(like swine flu) at any given time. “With the amount of activity we are seeing now, it is a little hard to know what that means in terms of making an estimate of the total number of people with flu out in the community.” However, when asked how many actual cases of influenza might currently exist nationwide, Jernigan acknowledged that the CDC numbers represented a gross underestimate. He told journalists, “if I had to make an estimate, I would say…probably upwards of maybe 100,000.”

Although up to 30 million Americans come down with seasonal influenza annually (7-10 percent), more than two dozen states are reporting unusually high levels of flu-like illness at a time of year when the respiratory disease usually disappears, health officials reported yesterday.

According to the CDC’s weekly H1N1 flu update, “about half of all influenza viruses being detected are novel H1N1 viruses.” The rise in both types of influenza implies that swine flu has a significant role in the spread of seasonal flu, as well. If Jernigan’s estimate of 100,000 cases of influenza is accurate, there could be more than 50,000 cases of swine flu in the U.S. “We would be expecting to see the season to be slowing down or almost completely stopped. We know the outbreak is not localized but is spreading and appears to be expanding throughout the United States. This is an ongoing public health threat,” Jernigan declared.

More at Link...

[edit on 5/17/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Holy Ska-Moly...sounds like the school closures and rising infection rates are being verified...

# Swine flu h1n1 situation evolving rapidly. Associated Press say total cases now 74, up from 44 reported earlier by Reuters #swineflu #h1n126 minutes ago from web

# 570 schools in Japan have suspended classes because of swine flu h1n1 #swineflu #h1n13 minutes ago from web

# 110 students in Osaka have showed symptoms like swine flu h1n1 for several days #swineflu #h1h14 minutes ago from web

# Total cases of swine flu h1n1 in Japan are 32 with 28 infected in the country. This may become the trigger for WHO level 6 #swineflu #h1h15 minutes ago from web

New flu cases climb among Japan high school students
Sun May 17, 2009 9:06am EDT
www.reuters.com...

BTW: I don't know who out there listens to Police Scanners...but...the Emergency County Coordination Channel in my County has had a lot of Data Chirping on it as of late...just another thing to look for?

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 31
www.who.int...

17 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 17 May 2009, 39 countries have officially reported 8480 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 2895 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 66 deaths. The United States has reported 4714 laboratory confirmed human cases, including four deaths. Canada has reported 496 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Costa Rica has reported nine laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Belgium (4), Brazil (8), China (5), Colombia (11), Cuba (3), Denmark (1), Ecuador (1), El Salvador (4), Finland (2), France (14), Germany (14), Guatemala (3), India (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (9), Japan (7), Malaysia (2), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (9), Norway (2), Panama (54), Peru (1), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (103), Sweden (3), Switzerland (1), Thailand (2), Turkey (1), and the United Kingdom (82).

[edit on 5/17/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Japan confirms 93 swine flu cases
news.yahoo.com...

KOBE, Japan (AFP) – Japan's number of confirmed swine flu cases soared to 93 at the weekend, officials said late Sunday, amid fears hundreds more are already infected in the country's crowded cities.

Most of the infections were reported among high school and college students in and around the western cities of Kobe and Osaka, where authorities ordered more than 1,000 schools and kindergartens to stay shut on Monday.

The island nation until Friday thought it had kept the virus at bay, after detecting four people who tested positive when they flew in from North America and immediately quarantining them along with about 50 fellow passengers.

But since the government Saturday confirmed the first domestic case, a 17-year-old male Kobe student who had not been overseas, the number of confirmed infections has risen quickly in the two urban areas.

Late Sunday officials in Hyogo prefecture, which includes Kobe, told AFP 53 cases had been confirmed, while Osaka prefecture reported 36, raising the national toll to 93, including the four overseas infections.

More at Link...

[edit on 5/17/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
From posts a couple of days ago...

Mexico detected a mutation of the H1N1 virus and warns has aggressiveness
May 13 09 - Mexico City
www.larazon.es

Just when the Mexican Government was attempting to convey an image of calm did what many experts had already predicted, the virus Muto, increasing the possibility of new outbreaks of influenza. Health authorities in Mexico, United States and Canada have found what could be a new version or a mutation of the influenza virus A (H1N1), and not out at the moment that is more aggressive than those currently circulating in the world.

"We have cases where immunofluorescence says is A, but does not tell us what subtype. Today we have cases like this, and this case is United States and Canada have such cases, revealed to the international media director general of the National Center of Epidemiological Surveillance and Disease Control (Cenavece), Miguel Angel Lezana.

The director of Cenavece did not rule out that this new version of the virus is more aggressive than currently circulating. "It is a possibility, the only way to know this is a series of bioassays, and the complete sequence of the gene of the virus, something in which he has been working, 'he explained.

In line, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said that the mutation of the human influenza virus is larger than that introduced the human immunodeficiency virus that causes AIDS. Cordova also presented the latest report on the evolution of this epidemic and reported that so far are 2446 cases of people who contracted the virus, 60 of whom were killed.

More at Links...

H1N1- Ultimate News on influenza A - bird flu, swine flu & avian flu alerts
H1N1 USA : more than 3000 cases: Swine H1N1 Outpaces Seasonal Flu In the United States
feelingblue.typepad.com

~
This movement of swine H1N1 into the human population is cause for concern. The increase over seasonal flu may be driven by the avian PB2 gene in the swine isolate. Position 627 is E, which favors growth at the higher body temperature of birds. Seasonal flu has a K at position 627, which allows for more rapid replication at a lower temperature, which is consistent with the internal temperature of a human nose in the winter.

The presence of avian PB2 may offer a selective advantage over the summer, when seasonal flu falls to barely detectable levels. However, the swine H1N1 that moves south in the upcoming months will be growing under colder conditions, which may favor the acquisition of E627K though reassortment or recombination. This change could create a more virulent H1N1 in the fall in the northern hemisphere.

Thus, the swine H1N1 may be launching a two virus strategy. The H1N1 with avian PB2 will dominate in the northern hemisphere over the summer, while the H1N1 in the southern hemisphere will acquire E627K and establish dominance during the winter months.

Thus, the spread of H1N1 is in high gear, as WHO debates if a swine H1N1 is a swine H1N1 and if a pandemic at phase 6 is really at phase 6.

Swine H1N1 doesn't read WHO press releases.

It just gains transmission efficiencies via homologous recombination

I also posted a link to something about "how it all started"...about some Wisconsin/Minnesota farming family that did something with sick pigs and chickens in a barn, but, can't find it at the moment...Hmmm...

PLease note the below supposition is my own, and not to be included in the quote- with my apologies for not separating the two correctly.




HX brings up an interesting nuance with this article. On the thread where we have discussed our illnesses, many people (including myself) have reference a LOWER body temp than is normal for a flu infection. I have been wondering about this and trying to contextualize the info relative to the outbreak. This info from HX helps me do just that- if H5N1 prefers a lower temp in the nose, and if the new strain(s) of H1N1 have mutations that in any way mimic the need for a cooler temp- perhaps those very mutations in addition to an avian reassortment could be what he have seen in individual descriptions by members. If this is the case, the bugs either thrive at lower temps (to avoid the fever that would ostensibly kill them), or they possses the mutation that allows them to lower a human's homeostatic temp, thus gaining a foot hold for invection. This is a hypothesis, and I welcome and and all feedback.
Great post HX.



[edit on 5/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

[edit on 17-5-2009 by CultureD]

[edit on 17-5-2009 by CultureD]

reply to post by FlyersFan


Flyers-

Encountering the same thing in my area. VERY poor lack of hygeine. Last week I was at hospital for 2 days with my mom (who is not ill, but has a chronic medical condition that required her having been admitted). At the hospital doors, we were met by security passing out gloops of hand sanitizer- no masks, no instructions for preventing spread- nothing- at a HOSPITAL. I asked for a pile of masks, in order to move through the building, and when I arrived in my mom's room, the attending doc looked at me first with fear (was I ill????) and then when I told him why I choose to wear the mask during my time in hospital he LAUGHED and said there was no reason to do so (even though I change it hourly...). I had to insist he wash his hands before he examined my mother.

In the regualr population, I EXPECT stupidity ( and which is why we actually shop in latex gloves lately, are buying frozen produce (not great, but not covered in sneezed material) and also buying from local farmstands, butchers, etc.
But a PHYSICIAN who had to be told to wash? It's so irresposible and disgusting, we released my mom AMA and took her home. She and I decided I could admin her meds at home as easily as in hospital, with far less risk.

No one is taking this serioulsy- and there is ZERO mention on the news of anything happening, even though cases are spreading (Japan just closed down nearly the entire Prefecture of Kobe- some 30,000 or so students are out of school with many ill) and cases are blowing up globally.

Sorry to ramble- merely wanted to let you and others know how widespread the ignorance is, and how many are putting us all at risk through that very ignorance. It's revolting.


BTW (edit) this is a VERY well-funded, wealthy, suburban hospital. Makes you wonder what's happening in areas of cities without those resources.

[edit on 17-5-2009 by CultureD]

[edit on 17-5-2009 by CultureD]

reply to post by soficrow


Sofi-

a brief reply while I look for the appropriate articles to post:

Cytokine storms CAN mimic hemhoraggic fevers in many ways- primarily b causing build up in the lungs hearts and livers of otherwise healthy paitents- some bleed internally and some bleed out. The viral payload is different, but the action of cytokins in an environment of high threat to the body is to try to "carpet-bomb" an infection. The problem is (like chemotherapy, in a way) that a cytokine storm may kill a lot of infected cells- and a lot of healthy ones. Docs often make the mistake of NOT looking for flu right away when a patient presents in a cytokine storm- usually, it's believed people either have CF, pneumonia, trauma, endo- or pericarditis, etc.

Still looking for the right source that will explain in proper, articulate and accessible detail the topic which you presented, ad which is immensely important....

C

reply to post by CultureD
Star 4 U!!!

A very nice postulation there...

It is known virus prefer a cooler temperature, as fever tends to kill them...

Now...both swine and birds have higher body temperatures than us...

For Swine ~102.5° is normal, as 104° to about 108°F is for Birds...

Now...if the virus increase the Human temperature into those ranges, with the Human trait included in it, those temperatures would kill it, but, by including some kind of temperature inhibiting/hormone releasing protein....it might become possible to artificially lower the body's temperature to better accommodate the virus and propagate it's growth...fascinating...

Make any sense or am I rambling?

reply to post by Hx3_1963


I've been following the closings in Japan and read that Kobe is essentially shut down. Now, with cases in India (and as we know, Mainland China) I think we'll start to see a bigger explosion- less acces to medical care, hygiene, etc.

Also remember, the Japanes screen EVERYONE who enters the country- at all times- with giant thermometers you have to walk through to leave your gate. So the spread must be happening within the community. One other possibility ans we've discussed is that there migt be a body temp LOWERING mechanism in these bugs- missed entirely by their screening mechanisms. When I was in Japan last year, armed policemen stood guard at that screening gate- I've never seen greater public health concern in all of my travels.

Again- I can only conclude that the Japanese cases are being passed within the community- and rapidly. There's NO WAY the Japanese haven't got test kits by know- I'm sure Takeda started ramping them up when the first case was reported in early April.

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Spot on- that's been my hypothesis for some time now. It would be easy for a strain to pick up a temp mutation. Look at HIV- it is a virus with a multitude of "cloaking mechanisms" by which it can hide from the immune response. A temperature mutation (purely darwinian- the flu can live longer in a host and infect others more efficiently if those strains with a random SNP in the RNA allow them to live at cooler temps.) It would allow the virus to propagate in us- the host- without dying from an elevated temp (or medical detection) and at lower temps, reasortment is easier for the strains, as they're not as taxed by the immune system.

I think the pieces are coming together (no pun intended) for me with this little sucker....

reply to post by Hx3_1963


HX- one more thing I found (and linked on another thread- will find it) is from CDC of all places-

The M2 region of the original H1N1 strain has an ioleucine to lysine mutation, conferring resistance in some, even to Tamiflu. It is already resistant to the adamatines and similar classes of anti-virals. Clearly, the mutation of this bug is fast and specific. Why not a temp mutation? Natural selecton alone could have aused it- espescially ans the RNA is swine and avian, as well as human- and as you pointed out- the natural temps of those animals are higher than ours. An temp lowering mutation would seem the only logical method for these strains to get around so quickly- they would not be able to operate in cells- co-opt cellular machinery- at 108, for example... and it seems that public health folks have an inkling- remember all the signs that say one should be seen if symptomatic, but ONLY with a LOW fever- 100.3? That's the temp one gets during a rhinovirus, not flu, traditionally.

Just thinking out loud here. Thoughts?

reply to post by CultureD
Ok...so the lipid/fatty "shell" has adapted to the current treatments...this much is almost a given...

I had posted a snippet from a medical journal article noting some peculiar adaptations in a couple of markers that that seemed targeted to some yet unknown purposes...I wonder if some more research into these markers is in order...

Thoughts?

Update On Swine Flu (Influenza A H1N1) Infections - California and Texas, April 2009
April 26th 2009 01:00 AM
scientificblogging.com

~
Secuence of artificial hibridization of new virus called “New Swine Influenza” done in the General Health Laboratorios, Trípoli, Lybia. (Ibn Hayan Project) in June/2008.

Materials:

1) Live Simple (In Tissue Culture) Human Influenza.(H3N2) (Source Bragstad)

2) Live Simple ( In TC.) Aviar influenza (H5N1) (Source Viseshakul)

3) Live Simple (In TC ) Swine Influenza.(H1N1) (Source Sakamoto)

Methods. (Annex 002 detailed)

Low magnetic field bio-reactor in human tissue culture.

(H3N2)Segment PB2 (Transcriptase Bind)
(H5N1) Segment HA (Haemagglutinin)
(H1N1) Segment M2
(Membrane protein)

mNRNA (+)
vRNA (-)
cRNA (+)

Fusion (uncoating)
Fusion (uncoating)
Fusion (Uncoating)

The hybrid strain “Al Najem” 0281. was selected.

Packed in desodorant spray cans .

Path of fedayeens with “Al Najem” virus : Trípoli --Panama--Mexico City – El Paso –San Francisco-
(Ad libitum) (Feb./2009)

(Contact e-mail to Ali Suleiman : [email protected])

Comm. Send in Panama City.

Anonymous (not verified) | 04/30/09 | 13:44 PM

* Reply to This »
* Link

More at Link...

Messenger RNA
en.wikipedia.org...

~
Transport

Another difference between eukaryotes and prokaryotes is mRNA transport. Because eukaryotic transcription and translation is compartmentally separated, eukaryotic mRNAs must be exported from the nucleus to the cytoplasm. Mature mRNAs are recognized by their processed modifications and then exported through the nuclear pore. In neurons mRNA must be transported from the soma to the dendrites where local translation occurs in response to external stimuli.[1] Many messages are marked with so-called "zip codes" which targets their transport to a specific location.[2]

~
Monocistronic versus polycistronic mRNA

An mRNA molecule is said to be monocistronic when it contains the genetic information to translate only a single protein. This is the case for most of the eukaryotic mRNAs[5][6]. On the other hand, polycistronic mRNA carries the information of several genes, which are translated into several proteins. These proteins usually have a related function and are grouped and regulated together in an operon. Most of the mRNA found in bacteria and archea are polycistronic[5]. Dicistronic is the term used to describe a mRNA that encodes only two proteins.

More at Link...

Notice the bold text I've included...

[edit on 5/17/2009 by Hx3_1963]

HX-

That's fantastic info. I will try to find out some more about your post- to see if any may be correlated to this hypothesis- or to another mechanism that may go hand in hand. Thank you for the info- star, flag, salute and cheers.

Thank you, also, for the valuable discussions. Please overlook my typos- had neck surgery and my left hand doesn't always do what I tell it to do...

Thank you

AR Officials Investigate Possible Swine Flu Death
posted 05/17/09 1:53 pm
www.katv.com...

Little Rock - The Pulaski County Coroner’s office tells Channel 7 news they are investigating the death of a man as a possible swine flu fatality. Officials say they have not confirmed the exact cause of the man’s death, yet, but they are taking the necessary steps to determine if it is indeed a result of the H1N1 virus.

State health officials reported Friday there are at least six cases of swine flu here in Arkansas. That includes four National Guard airmen visiting from Nevada and New Jersey, a school-aged girl in Lawrence County, and a case in Saline County.

Anne Wright is the communications director for the Arkansas Department of Health. She says that, at this point, they are not confirming the cause of death. But if it is determined to be swine flu, the department will launch an investigation into how the man could have contracted the virus and if he he could have passed the disease onto others.

Wright says even if it is confirmed as a swine flu death, there is no reason for Arkansans to panic and that it could be an isolated incident.

More at Link...

World at crossroads in swine flu crisis, conference told
29 minutes ago
www.google.com...

Swine flu spread in North America may extend into summer, experts say
57 minutes ago
www.google.com...

WHO eyes swine flu transmision rates, new vaccine
45 minutes ago
www.google.com...

[edit on 5/17/2009 by Hx3_1963]

I need to get myself to acupuncture, but hope we can pick this thread up again soon. Going to do some research on your info and something soficrow posted. Hope to have soething solid soon.
Peace- than you- and be well.

Cheers

Current scientific estimates of CFR (death rate) of swine flu h1n1 is that it's around 0.6%, x3 the pandemics of '57 & '68 #swineflu #h1n12 minutes ago from web

Worth remembering swine flu h1n1 surfaced about 4 weeks ago, whereas 1918 pandemic took 9months to go round the globe #swineflu #h1n12 minutes ago from web

New York Reports Its First Swine Flu Death
www.nytimes.com...

An assistant principal at a New York City public school died of complications from swine flu in an intensive care unit of a Queens hospital on Sunday night, the first death in New York State of the flu strain that has swept across much of the world since it was first identified in April.

Hours before the death of the assistant principal, Mitchell Wiener, city officials announced that five more Queens schools had closed.

On Friday, Dr. Daniel Jernigan, head of flu epidemiology for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said there had been 173 hospitalizations and 5 deaths reported to the agency. But he emphasized that most cases in the United States — possibly “upwards of 100,000” — were mild.

In Japan, the number of swine flu cases soared over the weekend, and authorities closed more than 1,000 schools and kindergartens .

Mr. Wiener’s death, which came five days after he entered the hospital and three days after his school, Intermediate School 238 in Hollis, Queens, was shut down by health officials, raised the level of concern among the public, especially parents, but health officials played down the significance of the death to public policy.

More at Link...

This is exactly what their family feared...a very sad development.

All due to NYC's stubborn policy's...and for what...to not "rock the boat"...inconvenience people with their own children?

I think THIS death will wake up a few more...not to belittle the other deaths...officially reported as NAU Flu or not...mostly not I'd guess...

Swine flu link probed in Ark. man's death
www.fox16.com...

Japan closes 2,000 schools as swine flu spreads
11 mins ago
news.yahoo.com...

KOBE, Japan (AFP) – Japan has confirmed 129 swine flu cases and shuttered more than 2,000 schools and kindergartens in a bid to slow the spread of the virus that may already have infected hundreds.

[edit on 5/18/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by CultureD


Replying to my own post- ah!

New death in NY- Queens- a 16-month toddler- dead within hours of hitting the ER.

Japan is almost forcing the UN to level 6 and the word out on the AP, Reuters, China and Russia news, is that it's going to happen.

www.silive.com...

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Thank you, BTW, for your support and encouragement.