Second wave of flu likely in two months

Second wave of flu likely in two months
Published: 16/05/2009 at 12:00 AM
www.bangkokpost.com...
(per johnb)

Newspaper section: NewsThailand should prepare for a second wave of the (A) H1N1 influenza, which could occur as early as July, warns a viral expert.

The pattern of the (A) H1N1 outbreak is similar to other flu pandemics such as the Spanish flu in 1918, which killed 20 million people worldwide, said Dr Thirawat Hemachudha, director of the World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Research and Training on Viral Zoonoses.

Scientists say there are four steps which indicate whether the disease can cause a pandemic. They are that it is a new strain of virus, humans can contract it, it is non-seasonal, and the virus can spread quickly and widely.

''The (A) H1N1 flu has already passed the first three steps. We'll just wait and see when the last step explodes. The current situation is like a warning sign, reminding us that the big wave is coming,'' he said.

''According to scientific records, the second wave should happen between two months to two years [after the initial outbreak].''

Mild U.S. Swine Flu Cases May Exceed Official Tally
www.nytimes.com...

The real number of swine flu cases in the United States could be “upwards of 100,000,” a top public health official estimated on Friday — far higher than the official count of 7,415 cases confirmed by laboratories.

The official, Dr. Daniel Jernigan, head of flu epidemiology for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a news conference that the official number gave an inaccurate picture of the outbreak because so few mildly sick people were being tested.

He added that flu was more prevalent than usual, “something we would not normally expect at this time of year.” But he emphasized that most cases were mild. There have been only 173 hospitalizations and 5 deaths reported to the disease centers.

A New, New H1N1 in Mexico?
May 15, 2009
blogs.sciencemag.org...

This odd exchange took place at today’s press conference with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

David Brown, The Washington Post: There’s a report that there is yet another new H1N1 virus that has been found in the states of Durango, Zacatecas, and Jalisco that is distinct from both this swine H1N1 and the seasonal Brisbane H1N1. Have you heard of this and can you tell us anything about this?

Daniel Jernigan, CDC’s deputy director of influenza division: We’ve heard of some reports about that, but I’ve not had any direct information about the specifics of that case. There’s ongoing dialog between us and the folks that are in Mexico, and as we know more about that, we’ll be able to let people know.

ScienceInsider is investigating but has yet to learn anything substantive. It was aired in a public venue, though, and likely will receive media attention, regardless of whether it turns out to be false.

—Jon Cohen

Update (6:44EDT, 15 May): “We heard a rumor but think it may be a misinterpretation of some lab data by a non-lab person,” Nancy Cox, head of CDC’s influenza division, tells ScienceInsider. “We are following up.”

Originally posted by Hx3_1963

The pattern of the (A) H1N1 outbreak is similar to other flu pandemics such as the Spanish flu in 1918, which killed 20 million people worldwide, said Dr Thirawat Hemachudha, director of the World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Research and Training on Viral Zoonoses.

Originally posted by FlyersFan

Read the book - The Coming Plague - by Laurie Garrett.
I just finished it. It goes into the hemoragic virus' as well as the swine flu.
Absolutely amazing. It'll scare the stuff'n out of ya.

Mexico detected a mutation of the H1N1 virus and warns has aggressiveness
May 13 09 - Mexico City
www.larazon.es

Just when the Mexican Government was attempting to convey an image of calm did what many experts had already predicted, the virus Muto, increasing the possibility of new outbreaks of influenza. Health authorities in Mexico, United States and Canada have found what could be a new version or a mutation of the influenza virus A (H1N1), and not out at the moment that is more aggressive than those currently circulating in the world.

"We have cases where immunofluorescence says is A, but does not tell us what subtype. Today we have cases like this, and this case is United States and Canada have such cases, revealed to the international media director general of the National Center of Epidemiological Surveillance and Disease Control (Cenavece), Miguel Angel Lezana.

The director of Cenavece did not rule out that this new version of the virus is more aggressive than currently circulating. "It is a possibility, the only way to know this is a series of bioassays, and the complete sequence of the gene of the virus, something in which he has been working, 'he explained.

In line, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said that the mutation of the human influenza virus is larger than that introduced the human immunodeficiency virus that causes AIDS. Cordova also presented the latest report on the evolution of this epidemic and reported that so far are 2446 cases of people who contracted the virus, 60 of whom were killed.

H1N1- Ultimate News on influenza A - bird flu, swine flu & avian flu alerts
H1N1 USA : more than 3000 cases: Swine H1N1 Outpaces Seasonal Flu In the United States
feelingblue.typepad.com

~
This movement of swine H1N1 into the human population is cause for concern. The increase over seasonal flu may be driven by the avian PB2 gene in the swine isolate. Position 627 is E, which favors growth at the higher body temperature of birds. Seasonal flu has a K at position 627, which allows for more rapid replication at a lower temperature, which is consistent with the internal temperature of a human nose in the winter.

The presence of avian PB2 may offer a selective advantage over the summer, when seasonal flu falls to barely detectable levels. However, the swine H1N1 that moves south in the upcoming months will be growing under colder conditions, which may favor the acquisition of E627K though reassortment or recombination. This change could create a more virulent H1N1 in the fall in the northern hemisphere.

Thus, the swine H1N1 may be launching a two virus strategy. The H1N1 with avian PB2 will dominate in the northern hemisphere over the summer, while the H1N1 in the southern hemisphere will acquire E627K and establish dominance during the winter months.

Thus, the spread of H1N1 is in high gear, as WHO debates if a swine H1N1 is a swine H1N1 and if a pandemic at phase 6 is really at phase 6.

Swine H1N1 doesn't read WHO press releases.

It just gains transmission efficiencies via homologous recombination

The Path of a Pandemic
amarquet.blogspot.com...

NEWSWEEK
From the magazine issue dated May 18, 2009

Around Thanksgiving 2005 a teenage boy helped his brother-in-law butcher 31 pigs at a local Wisconsin slaughterhouse, and a week later the 17-year-old pinned down another pig while it was gutted. In the lead-up to the holidays the boy's family bought a chicken and kept the animal in their home, out of the harsh Sheboygan autumn. On Dec. 7, the teenager came down with the flu, suffering an illness that lasted three days. He visited a local clinic, then fully recovered, and nobody else in his family took ill.
This incident would hardly seem worth mentioning except that the influenza virus that infected the Wisconsin lad was unlike any previously seen. It appeared to be a mosaic of a wild-bird form of flu, a human type and a strain found in pigs.

It was an H1N1 swine influenza. Largely ignored at the time, the Wisconsin virus was a step along the evolutionary tree, leading to a virus that four years later would stun the world.
Flash-forward to April 2009, and young Édgar Enrique Hernández in faraway La Gloria, Mexico, suffers a bout of flu, found to be caused by a similar mosaic of swine/bird/human flu, also H1N1. And thousands of miles away in Cairo, the Egyptian government decides pigs are the source of disease, and orders 300,000 animals in the predominantly Muslim (therefore not pork-consuming) society slaughtered.

Each of these three incidents is related to the unfolding influenza crisis. It is the manner of human beings to seek blame during times of fear. Fingers are now pointing, either at the entire pig species Sus domestica, or at the nation of Mexico. Such exercises in blame are not only scientifically ill founded, ut are likely to prompt government actions that, at the very least, are useless and, at worst, harmful for efforts to control a pandemic.