Second wave of flu likely in two months

The estimation of 100,000 cases is 2 orders of magnitude lower than the confirmed cases and may be two more orders of magnitude below the real number, The latest CDC numbers show 2X the number of swine H1N1 over seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 combined. Swine H1N1 is easily outpacing seasonal flu and the only slowdown is in the actual testing, not the spread.
1 hour ago · FluTracker · H1N1 FluTracker

Second wave as early as July?

Man! this flu waiting crap drives me insane! I just feel that I'm in the waiting game here, ready to get infected in the "mild" first wave and now you're telling me it's already time for wave 2

I'm in Europe and we've had until today 7 cases of infection max in countries around here & couple of weeks back, so apparently it's not spreading yet in our parts - or the spread has stopped at our borders?

Everyone I know think I'm nuts when I bring up the Piggy flu into a conversation.

Almost everyone is still clueless around here! - or they think it's over, and wasn't so big threat.

Absolute BS in the MSM - nothing to see here, move along!

[edit on 16-5-2009 by Chevalerous]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


HX-
My opinion, as you asked- is that you're dead right. This is not following a seasonal pattern; is being passed via community contact, and in the middle of MAY it is rendering people ill, gaining virulence and even (gasp!!!!!!!) forcing Bloomburg to shut down schools in NY because an admin at a school in the Bronx is hopitalized with it (I believe I read 4,500 kids are out of school this week---after CDC said NOT to close schools----as I shake my head in disgust and frustration).

EVERYONE seems to downplay this as something that only strikes those with underlying health conditions. The '18 strain started the same way- first the asthmatics, autoimmune patients, etc., then, on the second and third waves- everyone from 14-50

reply to post by Hx3_1963


And the age of international travel means the entire globe is exposed within 2-3 days, max. There is no more time to fool around. We need to get prepared to dig in and ride this-----

Great links- thank you

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Husband and I were discussing that tonight, actually. Very worried- numbers are not god. US states are testing to make up for the backlog- but many cases are being reported as ILI (Influenza-like illness); pneumonia, or ARS (acute respiratory sickness). No one seems to want a real number on the epidemiological side...I wonder why?????

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Both CDC and WHO are "reporting" that the Mexian and the North American and UK strains of the new H1N1 are identical. If that has changed in the last 12-24 hours, I am unaware of it.

Will do some research tomorrow and post anything I find.

I had stated in another thread, while I was researching this flu and the 1918 flu that they were similar in outbreak and ability to mutate.

It will mutate and become worse. Then the panic shall begin.

What can go wrong, will go wrong.

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Eurasia has always been at war with East Asia.....Orwellian reporting at it's best (or worst).

I'm trying desperately to get some blody SCIENCE from the WHO and CDC- but maybe they gave science up for Lent (oh wait- it's over).

Has anyone else noticed as well that there's been MSM SILENCE in the past two days about this? Not ONE word from MSNBC, CNN, BBC, Reuters, etc. It's as if it's not happening...?....

reply to post by soficrow


Sofi-

I'm already looking into that. Like HF's, this strain seems to have trophism for organs that are likely to bleed first- lungs, kidneys, livers, etc. I'm going to comb through NCBI, etc., tomorrow and post whatever I can find. If this strain is the chimera we think it is, and if there are ANY HF genes in the RNA we're in deeper crap than we can count.

Back in 12-24 hours- with some supporting research.

reply to post by FlyersFan


I read the book when it was released- had an epiphany- changed my major in college and wrote to Garrett- who was kind enough to write me back. I think it's one of the most important books ever written.

For more of her incredible analysis, read er article in the 18 May edition of Newsweek. she discussess seasonal vs pandemic H1N1, denies patient zero was in Mexico, links the outbreak to the US n '05 and talks about reassortment of the H1N1 and H5N1 subtypes, resulting in anti-viral resistance- as well as the problems with vaccine manufacture.

Originally posted by Tentickles
I had stated in another thread, while I was researching this flu and the 1918 flu that they were similar in outbreak and ability to mutate.

It will mutate and become worse. Then the panic shall begin.

What can go wrong, will go wrong.

Yeah! you're right about this, but this wating game is killing me! - get the damn virus to mutate now! so we can be over with it!

reply to post by soficrow


Sofi-

Agree with your question about Garrett's analysis in Newsweek- however I believe it was the editor- and not her- who made the omission.

Her second book- Betrayal of Trust- discusses the breakdown of global public health, and the consequences of it. I can't fathom she'd ignore a word of detail, based on her research- but she's not god, either-

IMHO it was an editorial omission to placate people. Thoughts?

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Thanks for posting this- was going to scan over the weekend in case members didn't get their hands on Newsweek.

reply to post by Tentickles


Correct and correct- well stated. Let's look after each other- I think we're in for a tsunami (and I don't mean to sound facile)- but it seems that many friends and even family are discounting this. I'm hoping to add some actuall science tomorrow- in the meantime- take care and spot-on post.

# San Jacinto, Texas, USA: 1 confirmed caseSource: Texas Department of HealthDate: May 15 200917 minutes ago from twitterfeed

# Hamilton, Texas, USA: 1 confirmed caseSource: Texas Department of HealthDate: May 15 200917 minutes ago from twitterfeed

# Grayson county, Texas, USA: 2 confirmed casesSou8rce: Texas Department of HealthDate: May 15 200917 minutes ago from twitterfeed

# Erath county, Texas, USA: 2 confirmed casesSou8rce: Texas Department of HealthDate: May 15 200917 minutes ago from twitterfeed

# Caldwell, Texas, USA: 1 Confirmed caseSource: Texas Department of HealthDate: May 15 200917 minutes ago from twitterfeed

# (Confirmed Su8mmary) Spain: Total 103 Cases3 cases in u8nknowabout 1 hour ago from twitterfeed


[edit on 5/16/2009 by Hx3_1963]

I'm not getting worried about a second wave just yet.

I got my vitamins and supplements stocked and plenty of good healthy food.
I have everything I need to keep myself in as good a shape as possible if we do see round two. But like I said, not going to worry about it unless it happens.

Oh yeah, no needles.

Originally posted by CultureD
reply to post by soficrow

 

Sofi-

I'm already looking into that. Like HF's, this strain seems to have trophism for organs that are likely to bleed first- lungs, kidneys, livers, etc. I'm going to comb through NCBI, etc., tomorrow and post whatever I can find. If this strain is the chimera we think it is, and if there are ANY HF genes in the RNA we're in deeper crap than we can count.

Back in 12-24 hours- with some supporting research.

Thanks.

Am going over some research myself. Things really do not look good.

reply to post by CultureD


I read that article .. that she said that 'patient zero' can't possibly really be patient zero. This woman is brilliant. Her book scared the stuff'n out of me. Chapter six - swine flu - should be read by everyone in this country.


side note - I said elsewhere - went to the grocery store today and the fella stacking the produce was sick. he let out a monster sneeze all over the berries. He didn't bother to cover up, wipe his nose, or wash his hands. last time I went in a customer was in the meat isle and she let one rip. Straight out. Didn't bother to cover up or even look down to the floor. She just kept going like she did nothing.

I HATE THESE PEOPLE. I REALLY DO.

Originally posted by CultureD
reply to post by soficrow

 

Sofi-

Agree with your question about Garrett's analysis in Newsweek- however I believe it was the editor- and not her- who made the omission.

Her second book- Betrayal of Trust- discusses the breakdown of global public health, and the consequences of it. I can't fathom she'd ignore a word of detail, based on her research- but she's not god, either-

IMHO it was an editorial omission to placate people. Thoughts?

I agree - Garret's good, and it was probably an editorial decision to omit references to the early cases in 1997-98 in Wisconsin.

Several things were accomplished with that omission:

1. Takes the heat off the pork industry.
2. Takes the heat off the USA.
3. Denies that a self-organizing point of criticality was reached and recognized in 1997-98, (which) accelerated evolutionary processes, and launched the evolutionary crisis we're now in.

A follow-up on the WHO Flu Vaccine question...

It seems the matter of monetary compensation has arisen... :cry:

It's always about da Money...

WHO flu talks end without deal
1 hour 27 minutes ago
www.abc.net.au...
(per JBA2848)

WHO official warns: world will squabble for swine-flu vaccine
monstersandcritics.com

A/H1N1 death toll rises to 68 in Mexico
news.xinhuanet.com...
www.google.com...

Here's some nice Intel on the WHO criteria for classifying this crisis...much more technical background is in the article...

Pandemic Information News
Date: Wed 13 May 2009
pandemicinformationnews.blogspot.com...

~
WHO declines to assign severity scale
-------------------------------------
The World Health Organization (WHO) said today that it is unable to assign
a severity scale to the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic for the reason that
disease characteristics and responses of countries vary. Dr Sylvie Briand,
with the WHO Global Influenza Programme, spoke today [13 May 2009] at a
media briefing in Geneva. According to Dr Briand, the WHO pandemic alert
level phases are mainly based on the transmission of the virus and its
geographical spread, while "the severity itself is assessed by other
means." Currently, the pandemic alert level has remained at level 5 out of
6, indicating community-based outbreaks in a single WHO region.

The severity of a potential pandemic is based on 3 factors: "the
[characteristics of the] virus, the vulnerability of the population, and
the intervention we can put in place to reduce the impact of severe
disease," Dr Briand said. Assessing severity is important for helping
countries determine their response to an outbreak, but at a global level, a
severity index is "not very helpful" because "severity will vary from place
to place," she said. Dr Briand pointed out that while wealthier countries
may have the resources to mount a more effective response to an outbreak,
some developing parts of the world such as West Africa are already used to
coping with epidemics and may be at an advantage due to having healthcare
systems in place. This is referred to as the "resilience" of a country, she
said.

Much more at Link...

Notice the bold in the article...*I Believe* this is what is holding up the Level 6...

And here are the NAU Flu Threads I hang out on if yer wondering about checking into this more

Mysterious U.S. Swine Flu Probe Widens as Mexico Finds Swine Flu *updated*
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Swine Flu news and updates thread
www.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 5/16/2009 by Hx3_1963]