Whats going on at yellowstone?

reply to post by Absum!
It's a lot of water but it is a pretty big lake. I'm not saying that to downplay the unusual uptrend in the lake's discharge -- quite the contrary. I've also been saying for days that the late discharge is something we need to keep an eye on.

What I mean about it being a big lake is that -- how to put this? Okay, I'll try it this way... I've found a document that says:

Doming along the caldera axis reduces the gradient of the Yellowstone River from Le Hardys rapids to the Yellowstone Lake outlet and ultimately causes an increase in lake level.

You can find this in extracts from a book by Don J Easterbrook et al produced for the XVI INQUA Congress in Reno, NV, 2003, on page 42 (rt-hand column, last par on that page).

So this has me wondering: if there has been some increase in doming along the main caldera, then according to experts, that could have the effect of initially slowing the flow rate from the lake and causing it to rise. But in winter, with the pressure of the ice on the lake's surface, that would be counter-acted and could actually cause an unseasonal increase in the outflow.

Not saying this is the answer but I don't recall this specific piece of info about the caldera doming and its effect on the lake being posted in the thread before. Yes, there have been theories about tilting or uplift, or even a fall in the bed of the outflow area, but not with any scientific backing for this actual scenario we're looking at now. So I thought I'd share it.

Here's the link to the discharge chart for every day of the year so we can see where it is compared to where it's expected to be (on average). The present rate is a good 25% over the mean for this time of year. It's trending up when it should be heading down.

I'll leave this with you all. Just on 2 am now. Time to try sleeping again.

Nite all,

Mike
Edited to fix a glitch.

[edit on 10/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by PuterMan



Here are all the Yellowstone river stations. I didn't list the many that are iced.

--------------------------------------------------------------Median---Gage------Gage
Station# Station name-----------------------------------Disc.-------ft3/s------Ht Ft
06036905 Firehole River near West Yellowstone MT ------264--------274-------3.08
06037500 Madison River near West Yellowstone MT------398 --------399 ------1.79
06186500 Yellowstone River at YS Lake Outlet YNP ------385--------506 ------2.65
06191500 Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs MT -------853 --------699 ------0.86
06192500 Yellowstone River near Livingston MT --------1,230 ------1,080 ------2.54
06214500 Yellowstone River at Billings MT ---------------2,360------3,190 ------2.83

The only Yellowstone lake feed that has increased flow is the Billings MT location. However, many miles down stream is the Springdale station stating that is not showing a huge increase. That is because of a fork that diverts ½ of the Billings flow south around Rockvale.

What is missing is a large river feed with a 25% increase upstream.

So less going in . . . more flowing out. Can I get a Whoa?

[edit on 10-1-2009 by Absum!]

[edit on 10-1-2009 by Absum!]

Hmmm, my twitter quake detector says a small local earthquake somewhere near san bernardino, we'll see if people just felt a big truck go by, or if it actually happened.

I have noticed that things have slowed down globally a little since the big quake in Costa Rica and the 4.5 in CA.

Edited to add: 3.6 near Big Bear CA.

Edited again to add: It would appear the CA map is no longer being automatically updated, as it still doesn't show up there (about 10 min after) but it popped up on the USA map immediately.

[edit on 10-1-2009 by quakewatcher]

[edit on 10-1-2009 by quakewatcher]

reply to post by Absum!



As I said. Something does not appear to stack up here. Where is the missing Olympic Swimming pool of water?

reply to post by Absum!


(Woah?!?)

If YS/USGS don't put time into mapping the Lake when they can get in there, I'll be ticked. (Among looking harder at things.)

I'm going to put a tentative bet in for the location of the next swarm.

This last small swarm is right between two bands of faults, I would say the next swarm will be in those two bands, probably the north most one.

M.

[edit on 10-1-2009 by Moshpet]

I don't know if this was found and posted yet. Here is a Google earth ad on to map the park in 3-d.

They have many dem maps, even one for the lakes and Yellowstone's Rivers and Creeks.

Yellowstone Maps

reply to post by Absum!


OK, If half of the Billings flow gets diverted ( you will have to forgive me as I know nothing of the geography), and the Billings River ends up in the lake, then there is the missing amount for a whole 3 days as the discharge from Billings is 1200 cu ft over it's mean, or 600 cu ft extra flowing into the lake.

But...that only accounts for the last 3 days and prior to that it was at the mean, but only 3 days are showing as it looks s if it was iced before that.

I think we are still missing some water.

In which I try to somehow relate goings-on in California to some of the things happening to the East in the Intermountain West:

I found this article about the 1992 Landers and Big Bear Quakes:

www.lbl.gov...

Which got me thinking about the earthquake sequences we've seen lately in Socal.

Here are the bits that I think are relevant to what we're seeing at hotspots in Wyoming and CA (the Geysers):

The magnitude 7.4 Yucca Valley quake, named the Landers earthquake for the nearest, hardest-hit town, ruptured at 5 a.m. on June 28. A second one, 6.5 on the Richter scale, hit about three hours later, 30 kilometers west at Big Bear Lake, a ski resort in the San Bernardino Mountains. News reports that day said the two quakes were "unrelated," but reports the next day said they were related. Williams explains that although technically speaking, the second may have been too far away to be called an aftershock, the two earthquakes were clearly related in that the Landers earthquake lowered the compressional stress on the Big Bear fault and allowed it to rupture. It also lowered the compressional stress across the central portion of the lower San Andreas fault. "It didn't go off, but the period of worry is not over," says Williams, who believes that the southern end will be the next big section of the San Andreas to rupture. He was concerned that slippage on the four Yucca Valley faults would set up a continuation north toward Barstow and south to the San Andreas via the Joshua Tree structure that slipped in April. If the San Andreas fault were to break as far north as the Cajon Pass (where Interstate 15 pierces the San Bernardino Mountains to connect Palmdale and San Bernardino) and south to the Salton Sea (which lies south of the Mojave Desert), Williams predicts the quake would be a magnitude 8.0 -- the Big One the experts are expecting. The Landers earthquake is providing scientists with a wealth of information. "The Yucca Valley zone is very wide and complex, with lots of large and lots of small displacements," Williams says.

...and

Williams' theory is that the strain is heading toward the back side of the Sierras, northeast into central Nevada, where it may affect active geothermal fields. The earth's movement could enhance the production of geothermal fluids by contributing to a thinning of the crust and allowing the fluids to circulate through complex fractures. A huge strain response on a scale never seen before occurred during the 24 hours following the Landers earthquake. At the Pinion Flats Observatory researchers from UC San Diego observed a massive redistribution of strain deep in the earth's crust. For the first time, Williams says, scientists will be able to study not just how the upper 12 kilometers of brittle crust reacts, but the response of the deep crust beneath it.

So, in other words, I don't think we're nuts to think that all of the activity of the past few weeks is related. Not that there hasn't been a lot of talk about that already, but it's another example to chew on.

reply to post by quakewatcher


ever notice how the earthquake zone forms a triangle from Washington to southern California to Yellowstone and back to Washington?

reply to post by quakewatcher


Look at the aftershock prediction map - the tension areas that we've seen this past week all have greater probability of an aftershock within the next 24hrs. (is that a "duh" moment or just my beer?)

Hand in hand with the feedback and connected event theory.

reply to post by nydsdan

Hi ! So I have read this thread since pg 97 up to about 250, coming back for my weekend night work.

You might like to see this info, about the moon, gravity, weather patterns, the present situation, the earthquake in california in 1994, and --

It's on this website-library of earthquake news : earthquake-news.newslib.com... ,

" Geologist Predicts Earthquake, Meteorologist Says The Pattern is Right"

earthquake-news.newslib.com...

It's about tidal waves and perigee and moon and other stuff. Just to point that the window is jan. 9th to jan 14th, and mention scientific recognition of patterns of earthquakes too.

Thanks for the ongoing info,

Love from Montreal

Since we were on the topic of water; one thing from the Supervolcano Movie bugged me, how did the ash supposedly contaminate the water.

So I poked around and found this Link.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

It seems the most likely concern is due to the Chemistry of matter carried by the ash:

Chemistry

Potentially harmful substances in some volcanic ash are the water-soluble materials called leachates, mostly acids and salts, that cling to the particles of glass and crystals. These soluble coatings are derived from the interactions in an eruption column between ash particles and gas aerosols, which may be composed of sulphuric and hydrochloric acid droplets with absorbed halide salts. It is these components that make ash mildly corrosive and potentially conductive.

The most common leachates are Cl, SO4, Na, Ca, K, Mg, and F. Other elements reported but in lower concentrations include Mn, Zn, Ba, Se, Br, B, Al, Si, Cd, Pb, As, Cu and Fe. Most of these elements and compounds are naturally present in ground and surface water but become hazardous above threshold concentrations. Finer ash is able to carry more soluble ions than coarser ash because of its larger surface area; fine ash and smaller-sized ash travel greater distances from an erupting volcano and typically extend over very wide areas than larger ash particles.

Observations from historical eruptions show that concentrations of hazardous leachates in ash decrease with increasing distance from an erupting volcano, with few examples of serious chemical contamination of portable water supplies.

Fluorine: Excess fluorine is recognized as the most hazardous leachate in water supplies, but few historical eruptions are known to have resulted in fluorine poisoning in humans. The main concern of fluorine poisioning is for livestock, which graze on ash-contaminated grass and feed.

"Consumption of water with fluoride concentration of 2-10 ppm would not be expected to cause ill health if the contamination lasted only a few days, though it would be prudent for susceptible people, mainly those with chronic sickness, to use uncontaminated water. Acute exposure to higher concentrations can cause gastrointestinal illness. Consumption of water containing greater than 1 ppm fluoride over long periods could lead to dental mottling in children and, at higher concentrations, osteofluorosis." (Baxter and others, 1982, p. 271).

Hekla, Iceland: 14 May 1970; "Local groundwater is measuring high amounts of fluorine, which is toxic to sheep and horses. Fluorine concentration in creek water has been measured at 10 mg/liter." (Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program; see www.volcano.si.edu...).

Hekla, Iceland: 26 Feb 2000: "Ash from previous Hekla eruptions has often been the cause of fluorosis in grazing animals. However, during this time of the year most domestic animals are kept indoors, so fluorosis is not expected to become a problem. Freshly fallen ash was measured for soluble fluoride ions (F-). The result was 800-900 mg F/kg. Snow melted by the ash contained about 2,200 mg/l (ppm) of fluoride," (see Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program; www.volcano.si.edu...).

Mount St. Helens, U.S.: 18 May 1980: After the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, the amounts of water-soluble materials were apparently not large enough to significantly affect well or surface water supplies. Many laboratories performed leaching tests on a variety of ash samples, and none of the tests indicated soluble chemical contaminants at concentrations great enough to exceed the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for public water supplies. The tests simulated the effects of rain falling on the ash.

The entire article is worth looking at if only from a FYI stand point.
M.

reply to post by Moshpet


Also: adsabs.harvard.edu...

Volcanic ash is the most widely-distributed product of explosive volcanic eruptions, and can disrupt vital infrastructure on a large scale. Previous studies of effects of ashfall on natural waters and water supplies have focused mainly on the consequences of increased levels of turbidity (ash suspended in water), acidity and fluoride, with very little attention paid to other contaminants associated with volcanic ash. The aims of this paper are twofold: firstly, to review previous studies of the effects of volcanic ashfall on water supplies and identify information gaps; and secondly, to propose a simple model for predicting effects of ashfall on water supplies using available information on ash composition. We reviewed reported impacts of historic eruptions on water supplies, drawing on case studies from New Zealand, Vanuatu, Argentina, the USA, Costa Rica, Montserrat, Iceland and Guadeloupe. Elevated concentrations of fluoride, iron, sulphate and chloride, as well as turbidity and acidity, have been reported in water supplies. From a public health perspective, the two main issues appear to be: (1) outbreaks of infectious disease caused by the inhibition of disinfection by high levels of suspended ash, and (2) elevated fluoride concentrations. We devised a simple model using volcanic ash leachate composition data to predict effects on receiving waters. Applying this model to the effects of Ruapehu ash, from the 1995/1996 eruptions, suggests that the primary effects of concern are likely to be an increase in acidity (decrease in pH), and increases in concentrations of the metals aluminium, iron and manganese. These metals are not normally considered to pose health risks, and are regulated only by secondary, non-enforceable guidelines. However, exceedences of guideline values for Al, Mn, Fe and pH will cause water to become undrinkable due to a bitter metallic taste and dark colour, and may also cause corrosion, staining and scale deposition problems in water tanks and pipes. Therefore, the main issues following volcanic ashfall of similar composition to Ruapehu ash are likely to be shortages of potable water and damage to distribution systems, rather than risks to public health.

I think some basic home distillation/purification/treatment etc. and everyone would be ok.
www.trailspace.com...

Has some basic info on how to make water safe

M.

(Link added for water purification stuff.)


[edit on 10-1-2009 by Moshpet]

Here is something intresting and I don't know the significance.

I checked the P208 bore hole strainmeter by fishing bridge and found an anomally yesterday that coincides with one of the smaller sesmic events. The larger sesmic events on the 9th don't show but on the attached graph you will see that the all four axis of the strainmeter were nailed in this event just after 18:00 on the 9th.

So you understand ther are actually 4 strainmeters in the borehole measuring diffrent axis in this case the bore hole was squezed from amlost all directs equaly.

P208 Bore Hole Readings Yellowstown Lake 1_9_2009

Maybe LKWY has simply been crushed by the recent activity and that is why we are getting no data.

This caught my eye.

Map showing location of all earthquakes in the Yellowstone National Park area from 1973 to Jan 7, 2009. The red circles are the Yellowstone Lake swarm earthquakes. All other earthquakes are shown in gray. The yellow stars are known volcanic ventsThe large gray star is the location of the M 7.5 Hebgen earthquake in 1959. The park boundary is outlined in green and the caldera is outlined in black. The earthquake locations where calculated using techniques described in
Farrell, J. M., R.B. Smith and S. Husen, 2008, Earthquake swarm identification and b-value mapping of the Yellowstone
volcanic-tectonic system, J. Vol. Geotherm. Res, (submitted).

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

Didn't we have some quakes right there just yesterday?

reply to post by meagerhair


That doesn't sound good getting crushed...how deep is that Equipment?

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
reply to post by meagerhair

 

That doesn't sound good getting crushed...how deep is that Equipment?

LKWY is a 500' borehole with the sensor at 395' or so. That was about 100 pages back in the thread..

Originally posted by Penster
This caught my eye.

The yellow stars are known volcanic vents

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

Didn't we have some quakes right there just yesterday?

Yeah, I think you are right. I think YMP lines up roughly with the location of the vent farthest to the right. This is the area showing the greatest activity in this latest group of little shakes.

reply to post by startx.jeff


LKWY is not in a borehole. It is at the surface as are ALL the U of U stations. The only ones in boreholes are the ones that start with B. B208 is the one at Lake. It has a strainmeter and a seismometer, but it is all new and I don't think that NSF (or UU) has a webicorder for this data.

By the way, there is also an LKWY that is a GPS station. It is close to the seismic station.

reply to post by Shirakawa


looks like u edited original since AM??? I thought I saw something about wind noise, i clicked your link an saw a screen capture of some great looking quakes ... at least that's the way I remember it ,,, but my grey matter has been getting noticeably unreliable (with respect to short term memory )in my old age ...

[edit on 11/1/09 by geogeek]