Can McCain win?

I don't think McCain will win. Too many people already fear the results of an Obama loss. But, the polls have definitely been skewered when reported by the mainstream media. Today, the Des Moines Register, my local paper, came out with another poll saying that Obama will win this state (Iowa) by a landslide.

Des Moines Register Poll, NOVEMBER 1ST

I don't think so. I refuse to believe this. Most people I know are NOT voting for Obama. Every truck driver I deal with at work (which amounts to about 30 per day) are vociferous about not voting for him. I am a Teamster, but everyone at my plant has nothing good to say about him (despite the fact that the Teamsters are backing Obama).

I'll post the actual numbers when I get them the day after the election. But, I already know the Des Moines Register is a liberal mouthpiece. They originally endorsed Hillary Clinton and now Barry Obama. I've opened this paper up day after day and see the subtleties (Headlines are big if Obama farts sideways; tiny if McCain's numbers start closing gaps).

Unbiased reporting by many media outlets is dead. Yes, McCain can win, but its unlikely with the Obama-mania that stains the pantlegs of Mainstream Media. If people were widely educated about exactly what the most unpopular Congress in history vs. George W. Bush were responsible for, it might be different; but, George W. Bush has become a whipping boy and the Obama campaign has heavily "capitalized" on this (which is about the only Capitalism the Obama campaign truly believes in).

[edit on 3-11-2008 by CreeWolf]

Originally posted by CreeWolf
Obama campaign has heavily "capitalized" on this (which is about the only Capitalism the Obama campaign truly believes in).

Clever execution. Utter hogwash, but a clever execution indeed

reply to post by Lucid Lunacy


Thankyou! Your input is valued and I appreciate the compliment! Hey, click on the link and scroll down to the bottom to the "comments" section. I plugged ATS!

I don't know how long it will last. The Des Moines Register's liberal staff tends to NOT print "My 2 Cent's Worth" nor my comments.

[edit on 3-11-2008 by CreeWolf]

Originally posted by KrazyJethro
Let's be clear, both major candidates are opposed to Constitutional government, becoming a more just nation globally, ceasing global aid (especially Obama), removing the Federal Reserve, etc, etc, etc.

They stink and politically they make me want to vomit along with those that support them.

I totally agree with you. I actually find it a little disturbing that on a board such as ATS there are so many members that are so gung-ho for these canidates.

Originally posted by whaaa
The more I look at and analyze the campaign stratagy of Sen McCain/Gov Palin; they never really wanted to win in the first place.

They should have run on the record of the past 8yrs.

I think this is actually quite an interesting point...

from what I've seen McCain seems a pretty feeble choice in terms of age, charisma and policies to be put up against the smooth operator of Obama and Palin does seem to be regarded across most of the media as pretty inexperienced and 'an inch deep' in terms of knowledge and belief. Biden has kept a pretty low profile as far as I can tell probably something to do with his comment about Hilary being a better choice than himself.

Would this uneven contest, not to mention the connections with Bill Clinton and cross party friendships make anyone presume that perhaps Obama was the chosen one by both sides?

B

reply to post by Jemison


McCain needs to overturn two states and win Indiana, Virginia, Florida and Ohio.

Then he wins.

I believe McCain will win.

No, it's not over. Democrats shouldn't get complacent, the Republicans could still snatch victory, as they have the better record of getting their supporters out to vote. However, it's still looking very good indeed for Obama!

Just looked up the state polls and Obama has lost 2-3 point in most of them. This is despite the sky rocketing of the RCP average (which could be due to using a couple different pollsters for todays average).


Hes within 4-5 points in most states, if his last push helps we can possibly see him pull this off in terms of electoral votes. No doubt Obama is going to get popular this time around.

Electoral College wise I predict Obama will get between 300-315 votes. Let's see who's right, me the independent, or you the republicrats and demonicans.

reply to post by AndrewTB


I'm not entirely convinced that the high turnout favors Obama. We heard the same things about voter turnout in 2004, and indeed, turnout was much higher than in the 2000 election (122M vs 105M). Yet Bush gained a net 3.5M votes on his Democratic rivals in the process. Those additional voters had to break about 60-40 for Bush in order for that to occur.

Just as in the 2004 election, turnout is likely to hit an all-time high. The poll modeling simply cannot account for this. It is an X-factor and a total unknown variable as there are no past indicators of how these additional voters will cast their ballots. They've never voted before. Conventional wisdom says that they'll vote for Obama, but conventional wisdom was dead wrong in 2004.

Bush also was coming in with a 1 point lead in most polls and won by 3. Your point? Also conventional wisdom was actually dead right. No time has a country ever thrown out a president in a middle of a war and no time has someone won because the only reason people had was voting against the other person. That's conventional political wisdom right there and it was dead on in 2004.

[edit on 3-11-2008 by djpaec]

[edit on 3-11-2008 by djpaec]

reply to post by djpaec


The point should be rather obvious: high turnout can be unpredictable. During the 2004 campaign, the media was predicting that it would help Kerry because large numbers of young voters would turn out against Bush in overwhelming numbers. They were wrong. Turnout was high across the board, muting the impact of the youth vote. The polls caught it, but many in the media did not.

[edit on 3-11-2008 by vor78]

reply to post by -zeropoint-


President Obama, wow that sounds really bad, I guess its bend over and grab your ankles time if he wins. You will have elected the most disgusting figure in US history with ties to so many scary people and with the least amount of experience. Wait until all the crap about him comes out after the election, wait until the rev wright in a part of his cabinet and Bill ayres will be sec of state.

I guess a persons character means nothing today just like oral copulation isnt sex according to Bill Clinton.

I'm very frustrated with the press and their prediction of an Obama win. I feel as if they are doing everything short of specifically telling McCain supporters to stay home since McCain can't win anyway.

Thankfully, Republicans are more dependable when it comes to showing up and voting so maybe the negative media regarding McCain won't matter.

They are saying on the news right now that Independants are favoring McCain in large numbers which could bring him victory!

Jemison

Originally posted by Jemison
I'm very frustrated with the press and their prediction of an Obama win. I feel as if they are doing everything short of specifically telling McCain supporters to stay home since McCain can't win anyway.

Thankfully, Republicans are more dependable when it comes to showing up and voting so maybe the negative media regarding McCain won't matter.

They are saying on the news right now that Independants are favoring McCain in large numbers which could bring him victory!

Jemison

Its funny because we can come up with so many variables yet polls only account for very little.

Perhaps the early obama victory will encourage more republicans to go vote, while lazy democrats stay home?

Originally posted by stinkhorn
reply to post by -zeropoint-

 

President Obama, wow that sounds really bad, I guess its bend over and grab your ankles time if he wins. You will have elected the most disgusting figure in US history with ties to so many scary people and with the least amount of experience. Wait until all the crap about him comes out after the election, wait until the rev wright in a part of his cabinet and Bill ayres will be sec of state.

I guess a persons character means nothing today just like oral copulation isnt sex according to Bill Clinton.

you're so ignorant it's ridiculous , trust me when I say you don't have a very good judge of character ..... not trying to be ugly but there are way too many super-paranoid people out there atm and all of you are just jumping to conclusions

give the man a chance , he can't possibly be worse than bush .....

Perhaps the early obama victory will encourage more republicans to go vote, while lazy democrats stay home?

I think the early Obama victory WILL ensure that the McCain supporters turn out in large numbers tomorrow.

The amount of undecideds varies from 6 - 8% according to todays polls. I heard someone on the news last night state that for McCain to win he would have to get 90% of the undecided votes but then someone else argued that wasn't the case so I don't know what to think.

While the overall consensus is that Obama will be our next President, it's interesting that some of you are convinced that McCain will ultimately win. Quite honestly, when I started this thread I assumed that everyone would say a McCain victory was impossible.

Jemison

reply to post by Jemison


I'm sorry I just discovered that you were addressing me.

I know that it would be a hard thing for someone to admit that they can't bring themselves to vote for Obama due to his race, but if anyone on here is feeling that way or knows someone who does, please post.

I don't know what race has to do with it? It may with some diehards in the south but I haven't talked to anyone where that is an issue.

The fears are all of his dubious connections, and the fact that he is green (not black).

The 'winner' has already been decided


is already known


You most probably won't believe that

but it's true

reply to post by EliteLegends


What do you know? He is my senator currently, I think I know the jerk better than you, he is south side scum. You cannot get any more crooked than him. He cannot even bring himself to vote yes or no, 190 votes were I am here, i am present. what a pussy.(cat)

[edit on 3-11-2008 by stinkhorn]