Can McCain win?

Originally posted by whaaa
If the early voting trend continues; Palin/McCain are toast.

Readem an weep boys!

www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Those numbers don't really tell me anything. They're merely poll results of early voters, certainly nothing official, and all of the data is three weeks old. In addition, Democrats tend to vote early more often than Republicans and I would expect that to be more true than ever this year given that Obama has been pushing his supporters to vote early.

Originally posted by AndrewTB
Despite what anyone says, the polls show confusion more than anything else.

Im going to have to disagree with you. Obama by a sweep. Check this link comparing the major polls.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Its true anything is possible, but if you were a betting man looking at this odds sheet, Im not to sure Id put my money on McCain.

The term long shot comes to mind.

Peace

[edit on 2-11-2008 by HIFIGUY]

reply to post by Jemison


That's what scares me, living in a primarily Obama supporting town, i'm pretty nervous. Thankfully I have Tuesday off, so i'll either head out to the country for the day or stay home all day.

Originally posted by HIFIGUY

Originally posted by AndrewTB
Despite what anyone says, the polls show confusion more than anything else.

Im going to have to disagree with you. Obama by a sweep. Check this link comparing the major polls.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Its true anything is possible, but if you were a betting man looking at this odds sheet, Im not to sure Id put my money on McCain.

The term long shot comes to mind.

Peace

Doesnt matter what pollsters say, even the ones that have been more accurate in the past have been wrong.

IBDD has been most accurate 2 elections in a row. They have it at a statistical dead heat and thats excluding undecideds.

This is an election, not a greyhound race.

reply to post by HIFIGUY



HIFI, looks like the Vegas odds makers concur with you. McCain is a long shot.

www.1800-sports.com...

Who do you want to believe? Academic pollsters or guys that make their
living playing the odds?

Originally posted by AndrewTB
Doesnt matter what pollsters say, even the ones that have been more accurate in the past have been wrong.

IBDD has been most accurate 2 elections in a row. They have it at a statistical dead heat and thats excluding undecideds.

This is an election, not a greyhound race.

So which is it? Pollsters don't matter because they've been wrong in the past, but IBD matters? What? Isn't IBD a pollster?

reply to post by HIFIGUY


The polls! of course! what was I thinking! oh well lets pack it up boys! its over the polls say it is over so lets not even vote, whats the use.

Originally posted by davion

Originally posted by AndrewTB
Doesnt matter what pollsters say, even the ones that have been more accurate in the past have been wrong.

IBDD has been most accurate 2 elections in a row. They have it at a statistical dead heat and thats excluding undecideds.

This is an election, not a greyhound race.

So which is it? Pollsters don't matter because they've been wrong in the past, but IBD matters? What? Isn't IBD a pollster?

No, I was simply using it to show that some pollsters have Obama with 14+ lead while others have it at 2+ (pollsters that have been known to be accurate at that). This shows that the samples being pulled are uncertain and to a pretty large extent.

These polls dont even factor in Undecideds to the point of how they are expected to break (which most analyst have said McCain will reap the rewards).

Basically what it boils down to, is there are far to many uncontrolled variables to even get a close to accurate sample. Theres no doubt Obama has a lead, but whether it falls within a real world margin of error is a different story.


[edit on 11/2/2008 by AndrewTB]

The transcript of Rush was very interesting and insightful. Thank you for posting it.

Wasn't the election with Bradley over 20 years ago? If it IS that old, I don't think it has much merit to it anymore. People seem to become more accepting each generation. Consider interracial marriage ... 20 years ago that wasn't nearly as accepted as what it is now. There is just no comparison. The same arguement could be made for the Bradley effect.

Jemison

reply to post by AndrewTB

Originally posted by AndrewTB
Doesnt matter what pollsters say, even the ones that have been more accurate in the past have been wrong.

First you state that polls dont matter....then take refuge in one poll.

Originally posted by AndrewTB
IBDD has been most accurate 2 elections in a row. They have it at a statistical dead heat and thats excluding undecideds.

Now IBDD has the lowest Obama lead of +2, which is the lowest of 13 polls, with not a SINGLE one going to McCain. On top of that, some of those polls show McCain down by as much as 13 points.
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Then you remind me its an election of which I agree....

Originally posted by AndrewTB
This is an election, not a greyhound race.

But, like the Greyhound race, even the election has a winner.

IMO, which is what the OP asked for, is that the Greyhound called Maverick will be beat by "that one" who was at one time predicted to be long shot himself.

Welcome to democracy. When things get bad enough, the voice of the people thunder.

Peace


[edit on 2-11-2008 by HIFIGUY]

Originally posted by HIFIGUY
reply to post by AndrewTB

 

Originally posted by AndrewTB
Doesnt matter what pollsters say, even the ones that have been more accurate in the past have been wrong.

First you state that polls dont matter....then take refuge in one poll.

Originally posted by AndrewTB
IBDD has been most accurate 2 elections in a row. They have it at a statistical dead heat and thats excluding undecideds.

Now IBDD has the lowest Obama lead of +2, which is the lowest of 13 polls, with not a SINGLE one going to McCain. On top of that, some of those polls show McCain down by as much as 13 points.
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Then you remind me its an election of which I agree....

Originally posted by AndrewTB
This is an election, not a greyhound race.

But, like the Greyhound race, even the election has a winner.

IMO, which is what the OP asked for, is that the Greyhound called Maverick will be beat by that one who was at one time predicted to be long shot himself.

Welcome to democracy. When things get bad enough, the voice of the people thunder.

Peace


[edit on 2-11-2008 by HIFIGUY]

I will not argue with ignorance, but the polls will proven to be very wrong, even if McCain loses.

A day and a half to go fella.

Originally posted by AndrewTB
I will not argue with ignorance, but the polls will proven to be very wrong, even if McCain loses.

A day and a half to go fella.

Well see if your statement has any meat to it.

Time stamped and dated.

Either way, we have to work together as Americans.

Peace

[edit on 2-11-2008 by HIFIGUY]

Originally posted by HIFIGUY

Originally posted by AndrewTB
I will not argue with ignorance, but the polls will proven to be very wrong, even if McCain loses.

A day and a half to go fella.

Well see if your statement has any meat to it.

Time stamped and dated.

Either way, we have to work together as Americans.

Peace

[edit on 2-11-2008 by HIFIGUY]

Ill agree with you on that one. No harsh feelings . Just good ole dirty arguing.

Ill give Obama a chance if he wins. I'm not saying McCain is going to win, just that his odds are better than believed.

Either way, the passport papers are hitting the mail Thursday!

We have bumper stickers that say: Another Democrat Voting for McCain!

We have a local paper that has an eavesdropper section in it where one can get quoted if heard:

"Bro, we don't know anything about Obama, so I'm a Democrat voting for McCain." - Man to his friend, in line at Borders.

Here's a scenario that could be a strong possibility: democrats who scream that Obama will be a great president and then go into the voting booth and select McCain. Then if McCain wins they scream or complain the loudest! Gotta keep up the image! But behind the curtain is another story.

There will be many doing that. The fear and speculation around Obama will cancel out many of his votes.

Even with this said, I believe that Obama stands a very good chance of winning, still.

reply to post by MatrixProphet

The fear and speculation around Obama will cancel out many of his votes.

Aren't you basically describing the Bradley effect?

Do you happen to know anyone who you feel is saying that they will vote for Obama but then change their mind at the last minute?

I know that it would be a hard thing for someone to admit that they can't bring themselves to vote for Obama due to his race, but if anyone on here is feeling that way or knows someone who does, please post.

Jemison

I pray every day that McCain wins. Obama scares the crap out of me. For the past week or so he has been telling people to vote early. Why would he not just tell them to vote? I think something could come out that has him skittish and he wants as many supporters to cast their vote before it comes out. My question again is why is he telling people to vote early and not to just vote?

Originally posted by jd140 My question again is why is he telling people to vote early and not to just vote?

Perhaps he knows that there will be very long lines on the 4th and he wants all his supporters to have their vote counted.

In my town there were enormous lines even in the early voting stations.

images.stltoday.com...

Could this Obama rally in ST. Louis be a portent of long lines?

reply to post by deathhasnosound


HAHA I like how it says "snippet from news source". I Listen to Sean Hannitty, Rush Limbaugh and Randi Rhodes. During work and my afternoon routine, it's a suprise I get anything done. If anyone believes these posts for a moment get real. Hannity was saying the same exact thing Friday(I think it was friday). Saying how a Campaign worker knew all this info about how they were gonna smear each Vice Presidential Candidate.

First off Campaign workers don't know how that's gonna go unless they're very high up in the Campaign food chain, and this person admitted they were in just one of the states offices(supposedly).

And if you don't believe me about the Bradley effect not affecting Obama then do your homework.

There's no way McCains gonna win, especially since NC seems to be going the Democrats way now thanks to Elizabeth Doles stupid godless attack. Weekend polling there has shown the race has swung in the democrats favor. Mark my words Obama is going to Win, and unless he loses Pennsylvania(Highly unlikely), his victory is going to come from VA. Even if he does lose pennsylvania he still has CO, NV and NM in his favor.

This is the final round, and McCain on the ground bleeding and it's a TKO.

McCain can't win.

The government (and its handlers) has been working to get larger and more powerful over the last few decades.

Obama is the ideal candidate to expand government powers, just as Bush was 8 years ago.

What can be a more perfect compliment to Homeland Security and the Patriot Act than Obama's idea of a "Civilian National Security Force?"

Originally posted by Jemison
I'm confused as to why people are saying McCain CAN'T win due to the electoral college votes when the electoral votes are dependant on how the popular vote goes.

How do you address the times a President lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote then?