Can McCain win?, page 1

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 12:54 PM

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There is a lot of conflicting information coming out right now. Many people are saying that a McCain win would be impossible because he cannot get the electoral votes that he needs, while others are still saying that the election is too close to call and it could go either way.

I would like to hear from my fellow ATS'ers. Do you think a McCain win is possible or is the election basically over?

Also, it is my opinion that the early voting has helped Obama far more than it has McCain.

Jemison

-zeropoint-

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 12:56 PM

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It's over basically, and we can all agree on this. President Obama, and he's really the best choice of the options presented to the American people. Flagged!

Jemison

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:16 PM

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reply to post by -zeropoint-

It's over basically, and we can all agree on this. President Obama

Do you think the early voting is a factor in the Obama win that you are predicting?

I'm hoping others will have a different view on this. I really thought that McCain had a fighting chance until I started seeing the breakdown of the electoral votes.

Jemison

nj2day

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:21 PM

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Anything is possible... there are just too many factors to consider.

McCain can win, this has been proven in this day and age of stolen elections and diebold voting machines...

There most likely has not been an honest election in most ATSers lifetimes...

The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism...

vor78

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:22 PM

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Of course he can win. Until the votes are counted Tuesday night, nothing else matters. The fact remains that Obama is polling at or below his affiliation advantage in virtually every poll. The pollsters are spotting Obama 6-10% in this regard, yet even in 2006, this differential was just 2%. If its 2% again this year, Obama will likely lose.

Simply put, if the GOP turns out, he has a chance. I suspect they will and I fully expect that rural voters and those in small cities and towns, who lean solidly GOP, will turn out in force. Obama may yet win, but he will have a very difficult battle on his hands in many of the swing states, given that they generally have large rural populations.

Finally, there's the fact that, in recent elections, over 10% of the population has reported in exit polls that they made up their mind in the final three days. Those usually break against the incumbent. In this case, with no incumbent, they will probably break against the odds on favorite, Obama.

And just one more thing: if you need a little encouraging news, IBD currently has Obama up 46.7-44.6, with almost 9% undecided. The interesting part, of course, is Obama well below 50% and the high number of undecideds. IBD was the most accurate pollster in 2004 and they use a much more narrow affiliation spread than other pollsters, 3% (40D, 37R, if memory serves). If they're right, its anyone's game.

[edit on 2-11-2008 by vor78]

marg6043

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:31 PM

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While it seems that by popular vote Obama will win the elections. . .

We have to understan that anything is posible.

Odds are leaning to Obama but you never know.

After all remember people what happen in 2000, history have a way to repeat itself If the powers behind our government wants too.

[edit on 2-11-2008 by marg6043]

Jemison

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:39 PM

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Call me naive but I have faith that this will be a 'fair' election. I know from personal experience that mistakes made by the machines happen for both parties which means any errors that are made will counterbalance one another.

I'm confused as to why people are saying McCain CAN'T win due to the electoral college votes when the electoral votes are dependant on how the popular vote goes.

Jemison

FlyersFan

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:42 PM

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Originally posted by Jemison
Can McCain win?

No.

The only way he could win is if the republicans cheat better then the democrats this time around. And it looks like the dems are doing a much better job cheating (acorn - getting absentee military ballots tossed, etc) - so no, McCain can't win.

whaaa

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:47 PM

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The more I look at and analyze the campaign stratagy of Sen McCain/Gov Palin; they never really wanted to win in the first place.

They should have run on the record of the past 8yrs.

deathhasnosound

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:49 PM

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I believe strongly that McCain is going to win. In fact I started a thread betting Obama supporters their ATS memberships but it got deleted for some reason.

Stargate5150

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:53 PM

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This will be a hell of a close battle but I think McCain has a great chance of winning. My observation is that Obama supporters are more vocal, like they have something to prove. Have faith and the best candidate will win. The only thing that frightens me is that if Obama loses, I think there will be riots, maybe I’m jumping to conclusions but emotions are running high and people are very passionate this year over previous elections. Again maybe it’s just me…..

whaaa

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:55 PM

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Originally posted by deathhasnosound
I believe strongly that McCain is going to win. In fact I started a thread betting Obama supporters their ATS memberships but it got deleted for some reason.

So does this mean if Obama wins; we won't be seeing you around?

If Obama wins and you are still around, be prepared to have your nose rubbed in it.

Jemison

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:56 PM

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reply to post by deathhasnosound

I believe strongly that McCain is going to win. In fact I started a thread betting Obama supporters their ATS memberships but it got deleted for some reason.

Out of curiosity, what is your strong belief based on? Are you thinking the Bradley effect will come into play?

I responded to your thread regarding ATS membership ... I wasn't really sure who would benefit from a bet of that sort but I didn't expect it would be deleted. Maybe the mods moved it to BTS?

I hope that you are correct. I REALLY want what is best for our country and IMHO that is McCain being our next President.

Jemison

KrazyJethro

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:59 PM

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I hope McCain can't win. As disgusting as I find McCain and Obama (as will anyone who's ever read or cares about the Constitution), Obama would be better for only one reason.

The destruction of the main two parties.

Should McCain win, it is very possible the dems could get elected someone even less desirable than Obama (hard to think of someone, although there are a few names that top that list).

Let's be clear, both major candidates are opposed to Constitutional government, becoming a more just nation globally, ceasing global aid (especially Obama), removing the Federal Reserve, etc, etc, etc.

They stink and politically they make me want to vomit along with those that support them.

Jemison

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 02:00 PM

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reply to post by Stargate5150

The only thing that frightens me is that if Obama loses, I think there will be riots, maybe I’m jumping to conclusions but emotions are running high and people are very passionate this year over previous elections.

It isn't just you and I don't think you are jumping to conclusions. There have been a lot of discussions about the riots that will occur if Obama loses. I noticed a headline the other day that said the streets will be filled with blood if Obama loses.

I am fearful of a McCain win prompting riots as well but I take a bit of comfort in the fact that during previous riots, the people causing the commotion do harm to their own neighborhoods rather than other neighborhoods.

Jemison

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 03:05 PM

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reply to post by vor78

In this case, with no incumbent, they will probably break against the odds on favorite, Obama.

I'm confused ....

The incumbant in this situation is not a person but a party - therefor, wouldn't the undecideds go with the democratic nominee rather than the Republican?

Jemison

volitionawareness

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 03:22 PM

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president-elect Obama... foregone conculsion..

I agree with the poster who speculated that McCain was never in it to win it; he's playing a role; the ruling elite wish to continue the matrix paradigm; by propping up Obama as the new saviour, the herd will assume that we have choice and opportunities for change, notions which, are, of course, a load of horsepucky..

Chuck Baldwin for president !!

liberty... it's what's for F***n' dinner !!

AndrewTB

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 03:29 PM

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Despite what anyone says, the polls show confusion more than anything else. People aren't sure how they will vote. They do show a trend towards Obama, but as many have said, the only poll that matters is Nov. 4.

There will be one factor that I think may win it for McCain, and thats the undecideds and voter turnout. We will see...

Id say Obamas chance of winning atm is probably 70% with a 30% for McCain. Sad to admit....

I will also add, that McCain was pretty much left for dead with far worse numbers against him in the primaries. (if I recall correctly)

McCain supporters have a way of sneaking up on ya. I hope it holds true on Tuesday.

[edit on 11/2/2008 by AndrewTB]

xtradimensions

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 03:49 PM

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I think there is a chance McCain could still win, but the odds are in Obama's favor at this point. I do think the Dem's are just much more vocal this time around and that is making the election seem more skewed than it really is. I think for the most part, the average conservative Republican are being very quiet this election cycle, but they will quietly turn out and vote for McCain in huge numbers that will surprise the media who think they can control the election. That said, I still think that in the end, the Obama-hype, the huge amounts of money of democrats have spent, and the liberal media bias has skewed the election in Obama's favor and he will likely win as a result of that along with the unhapiness by most with Bush's presidency.

[edit on 2/11/2008 by xtradimensions]

vor78

posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 04:03 PM

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Originally posted by Jemison

The incumbant in this situation is not a person but a party - therefor, wouldn't the undecideds go with the democratic nominee rather than the Republican?

Jemison

There are a couple of reasons that I do not believe that will be the case. One, I think that all of those that are inclined to vote against McCain due to his Bush/GOP ties have long since jumped on board the Obama bandwagon. That will probably result in an undecided pool that leans more conservative overall than is typically the case; the liberals made up their mind long ago. Granted, there's no guarantee that McCain will win them, but its a potential advantage that he has.

Second, with the way all of the attention has been centered upon Obama during this campaign and with how he and the DNC have been able to saturate the ad markets in his favor, this campaign has in many ways become a referendum on Barack Obama and his policies. If at this point, they have not decided to vote for Obama, it is unlikely that they ever will. This also ties back into point #1; the undecideds will likely be a bit more conservative as a group than usual and as such, he will probably have a more difficult time winning them over on this particular point than a candidate otherwise might.

Obviously, McCain won't win them all. I've heard talk of an 80-20 split, though I do not believe it. I think its more likely that he wins around 65% of the undecided vote on Tuesday, which probably nets him 2-3% that currently isn't showing in the polls.

[edit on 2-11-2008 by vor78]