The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Buggar, just when Eurozone debt sales were beginning to show some success, credit rating agencies had to come along and shake things to the core again.

CNN Article

France's top-tier credit rating will be downgraded by credit rating agency Standard & Poor's, the nation's finance minister said Friday.

Francois Baroin, speaking to France 2 Television, confirmed that France's "AAA" credit rating will be lowered one notch to "AA+." S&P has yet to officially announce the move.

European officials and investors were on alert Friday following reports that several eurozone countries were about to be downgraded by rating agency Standard & Poor's.

S&P declined to comment on the reports.

The move by S&P could mean that several national governments boasting top-tier credit ratings get knocked down below AAA.

France has been at the top of the list, along with Austria, among countries many expect to be bumped out of the AAA club.

It's not clear how hard national downgrades would hit markets. Investors have been expecting S&P to act for weeks now -- a fact that could blunt the impact. At the same time, downgrades could scare off investors in European debt and raise the cost of government borrowing.

So then, France downgrade is confirmed? Others possible. How many notches for the other countries, if at all, is yet to be revealed at the downgrade.

So appears a few countries will be downgraded...

Five European Nations to Be Downgraded by S&P

Standard & Poor's is expected to cut the credit ratings of Italy, Spain and Portugal by two notches and downgrade France and Austria by one notch, according to several reports.

reply to post by surrealist

So then, France downgrade is confirmed?

France confirms loss of top AAA credit rating

The pattern just keeps repeating. Downgrade rumour, denial, rumour, denial... fact.

Europe is in deep, deep trouble, heading nowhere fast. Just watch the markets rally when magic solutions aka intergovernmental accords hit the headlines in coming days / weeks. In a world where economic prudence once swayed markets hot air now holds sway...

German conservative advises UK downgrade

A senior German lawmaker Friday accused ratings agency Standard and Poor's of playing politics, saying the U.S. agency should also downgrade Britain if it downgrades France as expected.

Michael Fuchs, deputy leader of the parliamentary group for Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, said S&P had a distorted view of the euro zone and that downgrades of its member states were politically motivated.

"This step is out of order," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a party meeting, in reference to reports S&P would cut the ratings of several euro zone states later in the day.

"Standard and Poor's must stop playing politics... why doesn't it act on the highly indebted United States or highly indebted Britain?" he said, pointing out that Britain has higher public debt and deficits than France.

"If the agency downgrades France, it should also downgrade Britain in order to be consistent," he said, adding that this was unlikely.

C'mon, just downgrade the lot of them! The United Snakes of America could do with a few more notches south.

Originally posted by surrealist


C'mon, just downgrade the lot of them!

The United Snakes of America could do with a few more notches south.

I think they just did

THE RATINGS AGENCY Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the credit rating of France – ending weeks of speculation that the country was set to lose its coveted AAA rating – while Portugal has been downgraded to junk status.
S&P this evening said it was cutting the rating of France – as well as Austria, Malta, Slovakia and Slovania – by one notch, and the ratings of four other countries – including Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus – by two notches.

Source

This is going to be fun :LOL

So, are we ready for the collapse on Monday? Nice of them to give us the weekend to prepare for it!

No, I'm not seriously suggesting that there will be any collapse next week, but if anyone still thinks everything is going to be perfectly fine the way things are going, they're deluded!

Originally posted by Hithe Merinos

Originally posted by surrealist


C'mon, just downgrade the lot of them!

The United Snakes of America could do with a few more notches south.

I think they just did

THE RATINGS AGENCY Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the credit rating of France – ending weeks of speculation that the country was set to lose its coveted AAA rating – while Portugal has been downgraded to junk status.
S&P this evening said it was cutting the rating of France – as well as Austria, Malta, Slovakia and Slovania – by one notch, and the ratings of four other countries – including Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus – by two notches.

Source

This is going to be fun :LOL

edit on 13-1-2012 by Hithe Merinos because: (no reason given)

The ratings are a joke everyone of them including the US is dead broke and the whole thing is a huge credit/money from nothing scam mathematically scheduled to implode sooner or later and in this case most likely sooner. Investors that claim to know this but are riding the waves to make money while they still can are going to be disappointed to say the least when all the money they made suddenly becomes worthless toilet paper seemingly over night unless they spent it to prepare for the extremely hard times that will immediately be upon us when that day arrives.

reply to post by pause4thought


Well I guess thing are even worst that all the worst we already had speculated here in this thread, if the downgrade is coming this sooner rather than wait for the US election year to be over, after all all the downgrades will affect the US down the line as the US, Federal reserve with the IMF have most of the EU countries in debt with loans.

In the global economy everybody is linked by debt one way or the other, the economic scam is not isolated is the result of the gambling of nations wealth at will by those that control the banks.

I guess I will have to buy the pop corn and just sit and watch the show.

Q4 Spanish Unemployment Soars By Most Since Lehman, Hits "Astronomical" 23.3%

In percentage terms this means that Spanish unemployment rose by a ridiculous 2%, or from 21.5% to 23.3%, in one quarter!

Recovery? Mwahahahaha.

Germany has blown a fuse apparently...
Der Verkauf Ist Verboten - Germany Considers Ban On Sovereign Bond Sales

Ms Merkel said she would consider calls from her party colleagues for legislation to bar institutional investors such as insurance companies from selling bonds when ratings were downgraded, or fell below investment grade." Allow us to recopy and repaste the key part: "legislation to bar institutional investors such as insurance companies from selling bonds."

They are nuts.

Glad to see a lot of familiar names still posting on the farce...Happy New Year all...

Gotta love the downgrades after markets close...yet again...

reply to post by Vitchilo


Was just reading about that. The situation is becoming increasingly dire by the day, almost like a ship wreck. Wait!! Aren't we seeing a shipwreck off the coast of Italy in the headlines now?! Oh the irony!!

ETA seriously what a coincidence...

Cruise disaster: 'It was just like Titanic'

Europe’s largest ocean-going cruise ships ran aground off the coast of Italy....

The worst cruise ship accident in living memory happened at night, with the Concordia plunged into darkness by an apparent power failure. Passengers and crew likened it to scenes from the film Titanic, as they told of their terror when the ship listed sharply and then capsized in 50 feet of water, all within the space of about an hour.

This level of irony being a shipwreck (that even has experts baffled) off the coast of one of the most troubled Eurozone country's coastlines - Italy, and even further coincidental, just several months away from the centenary of the sinking of the Titanic on 14–15 April 1912. All the while this incredible event unfolds, the Eurozone crisis heads toward possible shipwre.... I mean break up.

Bam! Bam! Bam! Huge Financial Bombs Just Got Dropped All Over Europe

The European debt crisis has just gone to an entirely new level. Just when it seemed like things may be stabilizing somewhat, we get news of huge financial bombs being dropped all over Europe. Very shortly after U.S. financial markets closed on Friday, S&P announced credit downgrades for nine European nations. This included both France and Austria losing their cherished AAA credit ratings.

When the credit rating of a country gets slashed, that is a signal to investors that they should start demanding higher interest rates when they invest in the debt of that nation. Over the past year it has become significantly more expensive for many European nations to borrow money, and these new credit downgrades certainly are certainly not going to help matters.

Quite a few financially troubled nations in Europe are very dependent on the ability to borrow huge piles of cheap money, and as debt becomes more expensive that is going to push many of them over the edge. Yesterday I wrote about 22 signs that we are on the verge of a devastating global recession, and unfortunately that list just got a whole lot longer.

Over the past several months we have seen quite a few credit downgrades all over Europe, but we have never seen anything quite like what S&P just did. Standard & Poor’s unleashed a barrage of credit downgrades on Friday....

-France was downgraded from AAA to AA+
-Austria was downgraded from AAA to AA+
-Italy was downgraded two more levels from A to BBB+
-Spain was downgraded two more levels
-Portugal was downgraded two more levels
-Cyprus was downgraded two more levels
-Malta was downgraded one level
-Slovakia was downgraded one level
-Slovenia was downgraded one level

This is really bad news for anyone that was hoping that things in Europe would start to get better. Borrowing costs for many of these financially troubled nations are going to go even higher.

In addition, there was another really, really troubling piece of news that came out of Europe on Friday. It was announced that negotiations between the Greek government and private holders of Greek debt have broken down.

22 Signs That We Are On The Verge Of A Devastating Global Recession

2012 is shaping up to be a very tough year for the global economy. All over the world there are signs that economic activity is significantly slowing down. Many of these signs are detailed later on in this article. But most people don't understand what is happening because they don't put all of the pieces together.

If you just look at one or two pieces of data, it may not seem that impressive. But when you examine all of the pieces of evidence that we are on the verge of a devastating global recession all at once, it paints a very frightening picture. Asia is slowing down, Europe is slowing down and there are lots of trouble signs for the U.S. economy. It has gotten to a point where the global debt crisis is almost ready to boil over, and nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next.

The last global recession was absolutely nightmarish, and we should all hope that we don't see another one like that any time soon. Unfortunately, things do not look good at this point. The following are 22 signs that we are on the verge of a devastating global recession....

Credit downgrades are nothing more then a slow skewed countdown to impact/implosion

Wazzup Billy? Still pi$$ed over your royal stuff up last year on UST? Your doom and gloom is exceeding even that of ATS!

Gross: Greece to Default Following Downgrades

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Greece is heading for default.

The downgrade of European ratings by Standard & Poor’s last week shows countries can fail to meet their debt obligations, Gross said in a Twitter posting. Greece will prove to be the latest example, Gross wrote.

Greek officials will meet with lenders on Jan. 18 after discussions stalled last week over the size of investor losses in a proposed debt swap, raising the threat of default. European officials and creditors plan a 50 percent cut in the face value of Greek debt by voluntarily exchanging outstanding bonds for new securities, though the two sides haven’t been able to agree on the coupon and maturity of the new debt.

“The bulk of sovereign-bond holdings should be in the U.S.,” Gross wrote Jan. 4 on the Newport Beach, California, company’s website. Investors should favor Treasuries, he said, “as long as European credit implosion is possible.”

S&P takes Europe's rescue fund down a notch

Standard & Poor's on Monday cut the rating of the European Financial Stability Facility to double-A-plus from triple-A, the rating agency said on its website. The downgrade to the euro-area's bailout fund follows Friday's downgrade by S&P of nine euro-region nations, including France. Speaking to the European Parliament Monday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi criticized a lack of competition in the rating industry and called for less reliance upon them for information. "Rather than spend too much time on what they say, we need to learn to do either with them or without them," said Draghi, speaking for the first time in his capacity as president of the European Systemic Risk Board.

S&P Says Greek Default Imminent

Time for the dominos to fall where they may: head of sovereign ratings at S&P Kraemer spoke on Bloomberg TV, and said the following:

KRAEMER: GREECE, CREDITORS `RUNNING OUT OF TIME' IN DEBT TALKS -BBG
KRAEMER: EURO LEADERS HAVEN'T TACKLED CORE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS -BBG
KRAEMER SAYS EUROPE MUST DEAL WITH IMBALANCES, COMPETITIVENESS -BBG

And the punchline:

KRAEMER SAYS HE BELIEVES GREECE WILL DEFAULT SHORTLY - RTRS

The only thing he did not add is that the default will be Coercive. What happens next is anyone's guess, but whatever it is it is certainly priced in. Also, let's not forget that the inability of the market to react to any news ever again is most certainly priced in.

Prepare for a Meeting of "Monetary Cardinals" as Euro End-Game Nears; Sarkozy Falling Apart; "Hope Trade" in Extreme Overvaluation

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo Bank in Denmark, has some very interesting thoughts to share on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. His six major points are:

1. More austerity cannot possibly work.
2. Voters have lost the faith and willingness needed to repair the current EU and Eurozone construct
3. Credit and debt cycle is busted. Irving Fisher's Debt-Deflation Model is in progress.
4. The end-game is near for Europe. Prepare for a meeting of the cardinals
5. Nicolas Sarkozy is falling apart and likely to lose to Marine Le Pen in the first round of French elections
6. The "Hope Trade" in equities is in Extreme Overvaluation. Be nimble and cash-rich now to be able to take advantage of deep discounts coming up later.

Faith in Eurozone Dissipating Fast Please consider More apathy, less austerity - faith in Eurozone dissipating fast written below as a complete guest post in entirety.

The Mediterranean blues: Greece’s economic crisis is worsening—as is life for ordinary Greeks

THE news from Greece gets ever grimmer. GDP will shrink in 2012 for the fourth year in a row. Talk of a default and/or departure from the euro is growing. This week Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, demanded urgent progress towards a deal imposing a “haircut” on private creditors (which may now have to be bigger than 50%), saying that Greece might otherwise not get its second European Union/IMF loan. And thieves have just stolen a Picasso painting from the national gallery, where only one guard was on duty.

Yet most evenings Athens is buzzing. Around Syntagma Square, the scene of so many protests, the streets are crowded, with cheery music playing. In nearby Karytsi Square, bars and restaurants are packed with rowdy people; some are even jolly. The mojitos may have been replaced by cheap beer, but Athenians live for an evening out with friends. “Staying home is not an option,” says a classics student from Athens University. “It’s too depressing.”

But when day follows night, the buzz gives way to bleakness. Sofokleous Street, home of the Athens Stock Exchange until 2007, is now the site of the city’s main soup kitchen. It is a meeting-place for the homeless and for those too poor to afford food. To the east, on Kifissias Avenue, many small shops have gone bust, often to be replaced by gold dealers, pawnbrokers or seedy shops selling sexual paraphernalia.

There has been a surge in crime. Police statistics show both petty theft and breaking and entering on the rise. In the first half of 2011 some 314 house burglaries were reported in Athens, over twice as many as in 2010. Crime has spread to places thought of as safe only a couple of years ago.

Homelessness has also shot up. Klimaka, a charity, estimates that 20,000 people in Greece have no home, 25% more than in 2008. Before the crisis, the homeless were usually 35- to 50-year-old reclusive men from poor backgrounds. Now the streets are home to the young, struggling to find jobs, and the middle-aged, whose careers have been cut short. Many are educated; some are graduates. Most have lost their homes because of debts.

Thanks for the up-date Hx3. I went to the Greek newspapers yesterday and they are on another 48 hour media strike. The article you posted is scary. IMO you have to really search for news on how the economy is affecting the people of Greece. It makes me wonder if the news has been asked to not really report how bad it is, so to avoid panic in the other countries that are going to be following Greece and collapse.

I hope that make sense.

Originally posted by AuntB
IMO you have to really search for news on how the economy is affecting the people of Greece.

To keep up with the situation in Greece I follow Kostas Kallergis out of Athens > a good mix of news, anecdotes and opinion.

When the Crisis hit the Fan

Snip:

Speaking of coups (again), here’s a short story that happened to me yesterday. I was outside a public health building and an old man approached me. He didn’t look very well. “Can I tell you something very serious?” he said. “On 21st of January, 4pm, there will be a military coup d’ etat. The tanks will get out in the streets and a curfew will be imposed. Prepare yourself, buy goods from the super market and, for god’s sake, don’t get out from your house!”. I asked his source and he replied very seriously “I was told so by my uncle who was an adjutant of Dertilis”, one of the most prominent members of the 1967-1974 military dictatorship who is still serving his life sentence. This is not to be taken seriously of course (I was in no position of checking the credibility of his claims), it’s just a note on how some people are losing it. - Full Text