The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

I read there was quite the market ejaculation over Fitch reaffirming France's AAA rating. But here's the other side of that story:

Fitch warns on Italy, reaffirms France

Ratings agency Fitch says Italy is the most worrying of the embattled eurozone countries and could see its credit rating cut this month, while France's top triple-A rating is safe for 2012.

Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, Fitch Managing Director David Riley also warned that an exit by Greece from the eurozone in 2012 was a possible option.

Riley said eurozone countries have to raise two trillion euros ($2.50 trillion) in 2012 with more than half of that accounted for by members of the single currency bloc currently most at risk of a downgrade by Fitch.

Italy, which currently holds an A+ rating but with a negative outlook, has a significant chance of being hit with a downgrade before January 31 when an ongoing Fitch review of Italy's economy is set to be finished, Riley said.

Fitch warned last month that six eurozone countries - Spain, Italy, Belgium, Slovenia, Cyprus and Ireland - were all at risk of downgrade.

Is this news to anyone? It's breaking news on some of the major market sites.

Fannie Mae CEO Willliams to step down

Fannie Mae Chief Executive Michael Williams plans to step down from his position when a new CEO is appointed, according to the agency Tuesday. "I decided the time is right to turn over the reins to a new leader. As I told our employees today, I am extremely proud of what we have achieved together, and I am confident that they will continue to make a positive difference," Williams said. Fannie Mae has been under government conservatorship since September, 2008.

German GDP likely shrank in 4th quarter

Germany's economy may have shrunk by 0.25% in the final quarter of 2011, Norbert Raeth of the country's federal statistics office, Destatis, said in a news conference Wednesday, the BBC reported. For the full year, Destatis said Germany's economy grew by a "robust" 3%, slowing from a 3.7% growth pace seen in 2010. Destatis will release its first official estimate of fourth-quarter results and a revised full-year 2011 GDP estimate on Feb. 15.

When one of the strongest economies in the EZ is experiencing this, concerns should escalate!

Europe Stocks Fluctuate After German Auction

Germany received bids for 8.97 billion euros of five-year notes at an auction today, more than double the maximum target. Spain and Italy are due to sell as much as 17 billion euros in debt tomorrow.

“Few traders are taking positions ahead of these auctions.” said Baring. “One could expect a certain retrenchment today after the very strong upmove yesterday.”

Germany may be on the brink of recession after the debt crisis caused the economy to contract in the final quarter of 2011. Europe’s largest economy shrank “roughly” 0.25 percent in the fourth quarter from the prior period, the Federal Statistics Office said today.

Spain and Italy auctions might be interesting tomorrow.

A long time ago i posted in this thread. I stated that with all this financial analysis, we will discover that no actual effects will change in terms of the realities of daily life. Guess what? Look around and nothnging has changed. Holiday shopping was at record spending levels! I despise shows with stock tickers and dow reports. Its all such junk science!

reply to post by Salamandy


You are right, things are more complicated that people think and many don't even care to do the math or put two and two together.

Credit card debt: Are consumers returning to bad habits?

Credit card debt increased an estimated $64 billion in 2011, far more than in the previous two years. Holiday shopping bills will swell credit card debt even more in early 2012.

www.csmonitor.com...

There is the boost to holidday spending, now let see how many of those that went on shopping spree on credit will default during 2012.

Then the great job report that the government is going to exploit until the firing of the holiday hiring starts at the end of January and early February.

Another exploitable news for the benefit of election year.

The nation is doing great, yes it is, but no for the hard working men and women, that is for sure.

you guys trading this downturn that spread from europe to the us equity hours?
this is pretty volatile we needed some movement, it's at a pivot point now

reply to post by Salamandy

A long time ago i posted in this thread. I stated that with all this financial analysis, we will discover that no actual effects will change in terms of the realities of daily life. Guess what? Look around and nothing has changed.

I think a lot of people would disagree. I don't know when it was you posted, but if you take that date and look up what the unemployment figures were in your country (—it almost makes no difference which country—) at that time, and compare that with the unemployment figures now, I think you will see that the realities of daily life are markedly different for an awful lot of people (—even using the seasonally adjusted / manipulated official figures).

I despise shows with stock tickers and dow reports. Its all such junk science!

The stock markets are largely just confidence indicators. Those who have kept up with the discussion here have known about many impending crises long before they were covered in the MSM. A prime example is how an enormous amount was said about the utter futility of bailouts as solutions to collapsing financial institutions (long before the bailouts were even confirmed). The foolishness of effectively piling debt onto the backs of future generations, not to mention diluting the value of a currency via 'quantitative easing' were all clearly foreseen. Even now the consequences remain partly obscured via the ongoing obfuscation perpetrated by central banks and national governments. As a result, those who have kept up with these (and a whole host of other) issues discussed in advance of their occurrence have not had the wool pulled over their eyes — and I dare say quite a number have made adjustments to their lifestyle and/or future plans in the light of the reality of what is going on.

Of course people are free to choose to swallow what the MSM throws at them, carry on maxing out their credit cards, focussing on reality shows, talent contests, celeb gossip and whatever else makes them feel like 'everything is going along just fine'. But those who are least prepared for real hardship may well rue the day they decided to ignore serious economic and financial analysis.

reply to post by pause4thought


Some people will do what the government does, thin out the bad and exploit the good, that helps keep things sugar coated for those that doesn't want to know the truth.

ECB Must Prevent 'Cataclysmic' Euro Collapse: Fitch

The European Central Bank should ramp up its buying of troubled euro zone debt to support Italy and prevent a "cataclysmic" collapse of the euro, David Riley, the head of sovereign ratings for Fitch, said on Wednesday.

Speaking to investors as part of a European roadshow, Riley said the collapse of the euro would be disastrous for the global economy, and while it is not Fitch's baseline scenario, it could happen if Italy did not find a way of its debt problems.

"The end of the euro would be cataclysmic. The euro is a reserve currency," Riley said.

"What would that do in terms of financial and political stability?" "It is hard to believe the euro will survive if Italy does not make it through," he said, adding that while many saw Italy as too politically and economically important to be allowed to fail,"one might also argue that it is too big to rescue."

He also urged the European Central Bank to abandon its current reluctance to scaling up its purchases of troubled euro zone debt such as Italy's and drop its resistance to the bloc's bailout fund, the EFSF, borrowing directly from it.

"Can the euro be saved without more active engagement from the ECB ? Quite frankly we think no," Riley said, adding that the bank had plenty of scope to expand its balance sheet with unleashing a wave of inflation across the euro zone.

Worst ahead for euro zone, but it will survive: Reuters poll

The worst is yet to come in the euro zone's debt crisis but the currency union will survive 2012 intact, according to a Reuters poll of economists who say France will probably lose its top-notch credit rating.

While just nine out of the poll's 64 economists said the bloc had turned the corner on a sovereign debt crisis, only 10 said the euro zone would not survive the year in its current form. The rest were reasonably confident it would.

A similarly firm majority of those surveyed in the last few days said France would lose its coveted 'AAA' rating in the next three months, while Belgium, Italy and Spain will suffer further cuts to their ratings.

Athens, which is racing to secure funding from its euro zone partners and the International Monetary Fund to avoid a sovereign default in March, was cited as the most pressing risk to the euro zone's economic stability.

"All eyes are still on Greece. The situation looks extraordinarily bleak. The household sector is getting hammered ... the banking sector is getting pummeled to pieces," said James Nixon at Societe Generale.

"But if someone keeps writing the cheques Greece will survive."

The Italian and Spain debt auctions were so successful I don't even want to bother citing any of the stories here. Granted I think it was mainly short-term debt which tends to sell easier as I understand it.

reply to post by surrealist


As long as the big banks keeps refinancing the debt they can go on for every, while the big financial houses keep their gambling on Hypothecation of peoples future everybody think everything is peachy.

You can not have a collapse and let people find out that what they have worked all their life to have in the future is not there and never existed RIGHT?

The illusion most go on, and on and well on.

Unemployment numbers scam yet again...

Government adjusted number?

399,000

Last week?

375,000

Unadjusted number?

642,381

A small difference of 243,000 or 60% compared to the government numbers! I mean, totally not fudging the numbers right?

At 642k, we are still a long way from the January 2009 peak when the US lost 820k jobs... but still, this is pretty bad.

And on the retail front, sales in December were DOWN compared to November...Electronics? Down. General merchandise (department stores)? Down. Non-store retailers (internet)? Down. Christmas? What's that?

reply to post by Vitchilo


Is big hoopla about the "So call great Christmas sale, but what the government is not telling is that over 60 billions of the sale was on credit card, also just talk to the people that works for big retailers and they will paint a different story

My son's girlfriend, works for Dillard's when I ask her about how the Christmas sale did, she said that they were over 10 thousand dollars behind their goal for Christmas in their women's department, she said that while everything was on sale the stores were not doing money out of the sale and that all the departments were on the red.

I guess the government can not do the math this days, but then again who needs a mathematician when it comes to spending, specially on credit money, that is what our government is good for. Right.

As long as the pimps in wall street are reaping profits everything is peachy even if their profits are nothing but numbers on electronic data

It is coming...

S&P says 25 European sovereigns, 60 Euro banks on potential bond downgrade list

Please do it already! Downgrade France, Italy, the UK and Germany!

There's 27 countries in the EU.... so the two that won't be downgraded IMO are Finland and Sweden.

More news :

OBAMA SENDS CONGRESS REQUEST TO RAISE DEBT CEILING
OBAMA NOTIFICATION STARTS 15-DAY CLOCK FOR CONGRESS TO VOTE
HOUSE TO VOTE JAN. 18 ON OBAMA'S DEBT-LIMIT INCREASE REQUEST

The written certification to raise the debt ceiling to $16.394 trillion starts a 15-day clock for Congress to consider and vote on a joint resolution disapproving of the increase.

They need 2/3 vote to stop it. Won't happen.

The new debt ceiling : 16.394 trillion. Next time, congress will need to pass a raise... probably just before the elections.

Obama 2006 :

"The fact that we're here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. Leadership means 'The buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt limit."

Foreigners Sell Record $85 Billion In Treasurys In 6 Consecutive Weeks - Time To Get Concerned?

Last week, when we pointed out what was then a record $77 billion in Treasury sales from the Fed's custody account, in addition to noting the patently obvious, namely that contrary to what one hears in the media, foreigners are offloading US paper hand over first, there was this little tidbit: "The question is what they are converting the USD into, and how much longer will the go on for: the last thing the US can afford is a wholesale dumping of its Treasurys. Because as the chart below vividly demonstrates, the traditional diagonal rise in foreign holdings of US paper has not only pleateaued, but it is in fact declining: a first in the history of the post-globalization world." Well as of today's H.4.1 update, the outflow has increased by yet another $8 billion to a new all time record of $85 billion, in 6 consecutive weeks, which is also tied for the longest consecutive period of outflows from the Fed's Custody account ever.

Finally rubbing a few braincells together are they?

reply to post by pause4thought


What about the fact that at some point, going back to the start of the modern financial era, we have been constantly warned that our economies are in shambles and then magically saved only to regress (repeat).

Just saying. I don think ANY financial reports help the general public (those not generating income from the info). Now if this is about who is prepared to survive after a rapid thrust into nationwide poverty, than thats cool.

Ever watch a show that kept you coming back for more because they drew you in with the emotional ups and downs? Nothin wrong with that! But you must admit, has very little to do with real life.

the market ground-rules:

... there are No ground rules




The Financial System is a Farce:
Part Three

By: Eric Sprott & David Baker

[...]

One part of the Dodd-Frank story that interests us is the CFTC positions limits rule set to go into effect on
January 17, 2012. The new position limits are aimed at preventing excessive speculation in the commodity markets
which are believed by many, including ourselves, to have driven wild fluctuations in the gold and silver spot price
over the past decade. Position limits are an obvious threat to large futures speculators like the big banks, so it was
no surprise when two Wall Street lobby groups, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)
and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) launched a lawsuit against the CFTC demanding that
the new rules on commodity trading be thrown out, or at the very least, delayed.
The CFTC voted on the request to delay implementation and officially rebuffed it on January 4th,
which is a heartening development in an otherwise cynical saga.
Back in December, however, the CFTC had already quietly waived the position limit filing requirements
on all CME participants until May 31, 2012. So even if the new rules go into effect this month,
banks won’t have to report their position levels until May 31st either way. Given the lobby groups’
outstanding lawsuit against the new rules, combined with the CFTC’s apparent tendency to grant temporary reprieves,
we don’t expect the new position limit rules to be enforced any time soon. Once summer approaches, there will
probably be more delays and more deferrals, granting the big players plenty of time to protect themselves.
Extend and pretend. Delay and defer. That’s the song we sing on the merry-go-round...
[...]

from: from: www.sprott.com...



and so the casino game with the 'house' legally absconding with private account funds continues....


we continue..with this:

Then there’s Dodd-Frank. Remember Dodd-Frank? It’s the massive financial regulatory reform act that was signed
into law by President Obama back in 2010. We are certainly not fans of cumbersome overregulation, but in its
essence, Dodd-Frank was supposed to provide a new framework to address the potential failure of a too-big-to-fail
bank. There’s nothing wrong with that. Given the sheer size of the off-balance sheet derivatives market, we don’t see
a problem with at least attempting to prepare for another large scale banking failure in the US. But almost two years
later, we have to laugh at how little of the Dodd-Frank framework has actually been implemented. According to law
firm Davis Polk, a mere 21% of the act’s 400 rulemaking requirements have become finalized since the law passed in
July 2010. Of the 200 Dodd-Frank rulemaking requirement deadlines that have already passed, 74.5% of them have
been missed to date.6 The lawyers must be having a field day with all the paperwork.
One part of the Dodd-Frank story that interests us is the CFTC positions limits rule set to go into effect on
January 17, 2012. The new position limits are aimed at preventing excessive speculation in the commodity markets
which are believed by many, including ourselves, to have driven wild fluctuations in the gold and silver spot price
over the past decade.

so the metals futures are allowed to be preyed upon until at least July 2012..
now that info is good to know, it helps you to project the better buying opportunities (after mid summer no less)


interesting PDF to read in its entirety, no?


in closing we read...

We (PDF Authors) will maintain our exposure to precious metals equities and bullion. We will maintain our large
gross short weightings in our hedge funds. We are confident that they will protect us on this farcical merry-go-round
that seems to spin faster and faster with every passing day.

Striving to keep our heads above the dark pool of some-kind-of liquid

I know it is the Torygraph, but they are reporting that France has confirmed (those in the know) it'll be losing it's triple A rating tonight.. It'll be interesting to see how they manage to salvage this by Monday for more of the same.

19.29pm So, according to "people familiar with the matter" around the world, here's where we stand:
France and Austria are the only two eurozone nations set to lose their AAA credit ratings tonight. Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and The Netherlands are safe - apparently.
Ireland (rated BBB+) is also said to have escaped a downgrade, while Italy, Spain and Portugal are to be downgraded two notches (Portugal to "junk").
Slovakia has been earmarked for a downgrade, while Belgium, with its high debt-to-GDP ratio and banking sector troubles, is also a likely candidate (although it was downgraded by S&P in late November).
Anyone heard anything on Slovenia, Estonia and Malta?
www.telegraph.co.uk...

Reuters Linky

France has been notified that its triple-A rating with agency Standard & Poor's has been downgraded by one notch and will step up reforms to shore up its economy, French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said on Friday.
uk.reuters.com...