The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by ColorGuard
Euro is falling... How long until it collaspe? Just a guess if you can.

edit on 30-12-2011 by ColorGuard because: add stuff

Till Iran is attacked and oil prices go through the roof. Or another big bank blows up. So basically, before the US 2012 election.

And if I'm looking at the charts right, the US is gonna sell 455 billion of debt just in January.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Is that US debt being losing some of its appeal lately? Rising yields on that mother of a mountain of debt is gonna be a sight for all.

reply to post by surrealist


Well yeah.

Foreigners Dump Record Amount Of US Treasurys In Past Month

And yeah it's gonna be a biatch when interest rates rise.

reply to post by Vitchilo


I guess the Fed Reserve can keep interest rates down in an environment where UST lacks investor demand. The US is at the moment at least, very fortunate to have a central bank that can print otherwise you'd be roasting in a Greek oven.

Ah the possibilities, and indeed, the probabilities...

Flash Crash Threatens to Return With a Vengeance

What should investors watch in 2012? As the new year dawns, there are plenty of short-term issues on the horizon, ranging from the eurozone to fiscal gridlock in the US to upheavals in the Middle East.

But amid that list there is also another, often ignored, question to ponder: could 2012 produce a repeat of the “flash crash”, the bizarre episode that hit the U.S. equity markets back on May 6 2010?

Think about it for a moment. A full 18 months have passed since the strange episode that caused the Dow Jones to tumble 650 points in half an hour, wiping $850 billion off share prices, before rebounding. Since then, the issue has faded from view amid the eurozone drama.

But to this day, nobody has fully explained what really happened on May 6. Nor is there any evidence that the fundamental problems that caused the flash crash have been resolved. That leaves some scientists fearing that not only is a repeat of that flash crash possible, but it is probable — and next time round, it could be even more damaging.

To understand this, take a look at a fascinating transatlantic research paper published by the Bank for International Settlements. One of the paper’s co-authors is Dave Cliff, formerly a financial trader who now runs the UK government’s Large-Scale Complex Information Technology Systems project, an endeavour that analyses the risks of IT systems in sectors including healthcare, nuclear energy and finance. The other, Linda Northrop, runs a similar project at Carnegie Mellon University, which was initiated a decade ago by the US military.

In recent years, these two teams have used engineering and science skills to analyse what they call socio-technical risks, or the dangers that occur whenever complex technological systems proliferate, creating “systems of systems” that nobody understands. In early 2010, well before May 6, they released a brilliantly prescient report that predicted that a systems failure loomed.

Since then, they have continued their research, with sobering conclusions. Most notably, these researchers believe that the flash crash was not an isolated event; on the contrary, it was entirely predictable given how IT systems have proliferated to create a system of systems that is now interacting in unpredictable ways that regulators and investors cannot comprehend, far less control.

“The true nightmare scenario would have been if the crash’s 600-point down-spike, the trillion-dollar write-off, had occurred immediately before [US] market close,” they note. “The only reason that this sequence of events was not triggered was down to mere lucky timing. . . the world’s financial system dodged a bullet.”

reply to post by surrealist

Flash Crash Threatens to Return With a Vengeance

Well yeah that's what happens when 95% of the market is controlled by COMPUTER ALGORITHMS. There's no humans at the helm.

Of course all of that could be stopped with a tax on transactions...

Interesting article on same appearing in MSM:

Foreign Central Banks Cut Treasury Holdings by Record

The horses haven't even had a chance to exit the gates for 2012 and European leaders are already sounding alarms on the future of the euro....

Leaders' New Year Warning Over Stricken Euro

Mr Sarkozy told the nation that the worst economic crisis since the Second World War would continue to hurt households in 2012.

"I know that the lives of many of you, already tested by two difficult years, have been put to the test once more. You are ending the year more worried about yourselves and your children.

"The only way to preserve our sovereignty, to control our destiny, is to choose... the route of structural reforms rather than that of impulsive actions which only add to confusion and chaos without restoring confidence."

In his New Year address, President Giorgio Napolitano called on Italians to make sacrifices to prevent the "financial collapse of Italy".

"Sacrifices are necessary to ensure the future of young people, it's our objective and a commitment we cannot avoid.

"No-one, no social group, can today avoid the commitment to contribute to the clean up of public finances in order to prevent the financial collapse of Italy."

Greeks must avert economic collapse, euro exit: leader

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos on Saturday warned Greeks of another difficult year ahead as it battles to avert economic collapse and an exit from the single European currency.

"A very difficult year, marked by necessary but painful measures, is ending... a very difficult year is around the corner," Papademos said in his New Year's message.

"We must pursue our efforts with determination... so that the crisis does not lead to a disorderly and catastrophic collapse. So that we can keep the euro," he said.

High Street Faces A Tough 2012, Analysts Say

Thousands of retail jobs are in danger in 2012 with industry analysts warning of "carnage" on Britain's High Streets.

1,600 job losses have been announced at Barratts and Priceless shoes where administrators have decided to close the retailer's concessions that operate within other stores.

A buyer is being sought for Barratts' remaining 170 High Street outlets.

Administrators are on standby at the lingerie chain, La Senza, and the gift retailer, Past Times, as they seek new finance or buyers to save their combined 3,600 staff.

A further 2,000 jobs are under threat at the outdoor retailer Blacks Leisure unless a buyer can be found for its 300 Blacks and Millets stores.

Further to the above.....


Eurozone is closer to break-up, warns Standard Chartered's Peter Sands

"We enter 2012 with a very difficult outlook for the eurozone [and] with an increasing possibility of countries actually leaving the eurozone.

"Nobody should underestimate what a big deal that would be, because it would be very difficult to manage the contagion risk, even if it was only Greece. The disruption from that would really be quite significant.

"That will have ramifications all over the world . . . because the simple maths is that the eurozone is a very large part of the global economy and if it is going slower, then economic trade will be slower around the world. Also just from a confidence perspective."

"I think the probability of countries leaving the eurozone has increased because we have had several successive plans announced to solve the problem of the eurozone which simply haven't convinced the market – and ultimately, the current structure and shape and scope of the eurozone only works if the market believes it's worth supporting," he said.

"We are in a path-dependent problem, where the solutions available at any one time are not necessarily available at the next step and so I think the solutions base has narrowed because we have missed opportunities."

www.leap2020.eu...

As announced in previous GEABs, in this issue our team presents its anticipations on the changes in the United States for the period 2012-2016. This country, the epicentre of the global systemic crisis and pillar of the international system since 1945, will go through a particularly tragic in its history during these five years. Already insolvent it will become ungovernable bringing about, for Americans and those who depend on the United States violent and destructive economic, financial, monetary, geopolitical and social shocks. If the United States today is already very different from the "super-power" of 2006, the year the first GEAB was published, announcing the global systemic crisis and the end of the all-powerful US, the changes we anticipate for the 2012-2016 period are even more important, and will radically transform the country's institutional system, its social fabric and its economic and financial weight.

Yay...

The Bluffing Resumes: Greece Warns Will Leave Eurozone If Second Bailout Not Secured

First Morgan Stanley issued the first market forecast of 2012 before the market has even opened, and now it is Greece's turn to threaten fire and brimstone (aka to leave the Eurozone, but according to UBS and everyone else in the status quo the two are synonymous) within hours of the New Year, if the second bailout, which as far as we recall was arranged back in July 2011, is not secured. Quote the BBC: ""The bailout agreement needs to be signed otherwise we will be out of the markets, out of the euro," spokesman Pantelis Kapsis told Skai TV."

Also interesting :

Market talk of a French sovereign downgrade continues to do the rounds – Unconfirmed

German Unemployment Change (000's) (Dec) M/M -22K vs. Exp. -10K (Prev. -20K, Rev. to -23K)

And more rape of Europeans coming :

EU says the commission and member states have submitted amendments for new EU treaty

New debt numbers :

Debt for fiscal year starting October 1 2011 till December 30 : 432.59 billion or 4.8 billion/day ($15.50/day/citizen) or ($1.754 trillion deficit)
Debt for calendar year 2011 till December 30 : 1.225 trillion or 3.365 billion/day ($10.86/day/citizen) ($1.228 trillion deficit)
Current debt as of December 30 2011 : 15.222 trillion
Current debt ceiling : 14.694 trillion (first phase) 15.194 trillion (second phase) 16.694 trillion (final phase)

At the current average rate of 4.08 billion in new debt/day (or about $13.16 in new debt per day for every citizen in America...and that is just federal) it will take about 360 days before reaching the final phase of the debt ceiling hike, so around December 25, 2012.

US GDP : 15.18 trillion Q3 2011
US debt : 15.222 trillion

Total debt to GDP ratio : 100.27%

People get ready for the next crash to come in the name of Hypothecation a crafty way that financial houses are now using to play with your investments and is all legal.

For those that think their Money is safe you better think twice, I been telling people that nobody investments is save and this is the reason why.

Financial brokers houses can not guarantee your money anymore regardless of what they are telling because their gambling has obliterated any cash that is available, liquidity is not existent this is killing the the EU countries and that is why they can not stop borrowing.

In 2008, reckless credit default swaps nearly obliterated the global economy. Now comes the next crisis - rehypothecated assets.

It's a complicated, fancy term in the global banking complex. Yet it's one you need to know.

And if you understand it, you will get the scope of the risks we currently face - and it's way bigger than just Greece.

So follow with me on this one. I guarantee that you'll be outraged and amazed - and better educated. You'll also be in a better position to protect your assets at the end of this article, where I'll give you three important action steps to take. So follow along...

This is now the only way that the corrupted banking institutions can survive while telling the investors that their money is safe, but that is not true actually let me put it this way is not money at all your money is not longer there and the investments and gains are nothing but numbers on sheets

The last swap crisis never went away, what the banking mob did and what they IMF is still doing is re-financing loans over and over again until is no collateral left for leverage.

Now you can understand what is going on in The EUzone and in the US incredibly increasing debt.

Wall Street is addicted to leverage and, when given the opportunity to self-police, has rarely, if ever, taken actions that would threaten profits.

Further, what I am about to share with you is one of main the reasons why Europe is in such deep trouble and why our banking system will get hammered if the European Union (EU) goes down.

And w hat makes this so disgusting - take a deep breath - is that it's our money that's at stake. Regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and their overseas equivalents are not only letting big banks get away with what I am about to describe, but have made it an integral part of the present banking system.

Now you see why if the EU goes down so the US will fall worst than anyone can imagine, I mean no money everything will be wiped out from SS accounts to Retirement and anything that you have invested your money on because is not real money has not been real for years.

And investments can not be guarantee if is no liquidity to Begin with to back those investments thanks to the gamblers in Wall Street, the Federal Reserve and the IMF.

They have stolen everybody's money for their gambling addiction.

What Does Hypothecation Mean?

I wish it was just a scam but is more complicated than that.

Hypothecation is what it's called when a borrower pledges collateral as a means of securing a debt. The borrower retains ownership of the collateral but it is hypothetically under the control of the creditor who can seize possession of the collateral if the borrower defaults.

In this context is pretty simple we have been doing this for decades on a personal level but when you apply this concept to the markets is takes a different meaning and any investors becomes a loser as the gamblers uses your investments for their own gains but is actually no gains at all on this, just more debt

If you're a brokerage house, the process is similar. Have equities, the collateral gets posted and used accordingly. Bonds, same thing. The brokers will reuse them by rehypothicating them at their discretion while making sure a fraction of the actual underlying value remains in reserve as collateral.

Typically, banks and investment houses have rehypothecated customer assets to back their own trades, their own borrowing, and their own operations.

Just like your house, which can be seized if you don't pay up, assets on deposit with a broker may be sold by the broker (hypothecated) if investors fail to keep up with margin payments or if the securities drop in value and the investors in question fail to respond to requests to boost their collateral - all at the broker's discretion depending on their margin and clearing requirements.

Now here's where it starts to get sticky.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

More on the issue.

If a client has $10,000 in securities on deposit and a debt deficit of $2,000, the net equity is $8,000. This means the broker-dealer could rehypothecate up to $2,800 of client assets to finance its own activities - often without notice.

Not only is this legal, it's common practice specified in the fine print of most brokerage agreements.

If you've ever traded on margin, chances are you're in the game whether you want to be or not because any common stock, cash, or other securities - even gold and Chinese yuan - can be used as collateral that the broker can hypothecate or rehypothecate.

And that's where the real games begin.

So what happen when one accounts is used and reused to pay for shortcomes, well you do the math, that is exactly what is going on in the EU.

Reusing assest to pay for shortcomings creating debt.

If there is a hiccup anywhere in the chain, the effect is one of instant collateral collapse as everybody in the chain is forced to buy back, or recall, their assets. The effect is not unlike a colossal global "short" on world markets.

Imagine what happens if something goes wrong and everybody wants their $10 back, but find that there is only $1 in actual cash.

I believe this is what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his counterparts at the ECB are so concerned with and why they are obsessed with liquidity. Everybody knows that too much debt caused this mess, but what they don't realize is that it's the use of rehypothecated assets that make collateralizing it nearly impossible barring massive injections and printing.

Now we can see the the irresponsible way that the Fed and global banks are acting in this days and times while the debt of nations keeps accumulating and it seems that no amount of liquidty is going to fix the problems because the debt is way to big to fix and growing.

All the big broker firms that we know like MF Global, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), the Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) more frequently establish U.K.-based investment pools and lateral assets from other jurisdictions like the U.S. into them. do this, and the only reason they are getting bold about it is because they own governments like the US to back up their loses with tax payer money

But what they can not fix is the debt of nations and that will be their downfall and when this comes we will have the biggest global economic crisis that the financial system will ever see and heads will be cut and bodies will be hang by the citizens angry mobs.

Now some experts think that you can profit from this but in my books is nothing but more scams. Because once the system crash on this unregulated gambling everything will go.

I apologize for leaving the wrong link to the article, I was in hurry this morning and didn't even realized what I was doing.

This is the whole link

How Banks Are Using Your Money to Create the Next Crash

moneymorning.com...

Latest numbers of unemployment :

Adjusted :

372,000

Non adjusted :

535,112

Gee a little ``adjustment`` of 163k... no biggie!

And the ``new jobs`` numbers :

325,000

325k... compared to every analyst out there that predicted at most 230k jobs... and the consensus was 177k jobs.

So now they are lying their butts off.

reply to post by Vitchilo


No to worry Obama have a plan for teen summer jobs to keep the pesky teens out of our streets in the summer.



I think he is going to send them to China to work in the sweat shops Out of sight out of mind.

Italy is imploding...

EURUSD Dips Below 1.28 As All Hell Breaks Loose In Italian Financials

Following the 4th unhalt of UniCredit, its stock is now down 15% on the day as it scrambles to catch up to the fair value represented yesterday courtesy of the rights offering to be about 43% below the market price.

And :

Italy PM Monti flies to Brussels unexpectedly

Italy is going dooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnn.... as planned.

Baltic Dry index falls over 8%

Very bullish.

the dow jones closed last night with +21 and opened few minutes ago and is now -96

Thats pretty heavy if you ask me. Or is this normal behavior ?

Originally posted by Cyanhide
the dow jones closed last night with +21 and opened few minutes ago and is now -96

Thats pretty heavy if you ask me. Or is this normal behavior ?

edit on 5-1-2012 by Cyanhide because: (no reason given)

The Dow Jones doesn't reflect the state of the economy. And the DJ doesn't have a ``normal behavior`` since at least 2008 because it's heavily manipulated.

Anyway, being down after all the ``good news`` is quite showing... the propaganda ain't working anymore.

About Europe :
European Deathwish Exposed: Greek Bailout Package Delayed By Three Months

Looks like Europe plans on pushing its fate literally to the wire. Yesterday we explained why for Greece March is D(eadline)-Day, and as Greece itself stated, absent bailout cash coming in, it is game over: for Greece, for the Eurozone, and for Europe as the serial chain of defaults and exits begins. Which is why we read with great surprise minutes ago that according to the European Commission, the entire Greek bailout package has been delayed by three months because of delays in payouts of the 2011 tranche!

Will Europe survive March? Maybe, maybe not...

Euro below 1.28...