Reinhardt Thread - "Suggestions and Predictions"

Updated Once again....


am i the only person who is writing this???

he says the digital devide...... and the 3 countries that he has circled have not been to his site.... meaning the g20 are talking about internet censorship?????


Hmmmmm He is on to something here!

[edit on 15-11-2008 by forshow]

Dow down to 3000..... that would be freaky

[edit on 15-11-2008 by forshow]

"g20=(g)ee150"?

maybe this?

gulfstream g 150

www.gulfstream.com...

Originally posted by justyc

Originally posted by yellowstone
Working on a dedicated. enterprisecorrupted.com...

[edit on 15-11-2008 by yellowstone]

great news. will be keeping an eye on it

great stuff. thanks!

this cought my eye - excellent!

this is r 101 here:

Money is lots of things: coin, credit, crude, stock, etc.
They are known as vehicles of exchange (VME)

Stuff needs to get paid for
Economics is a zero sum game

There is lots on this side of the continent, globe, etc.
There's not so much over there

Stuff needs to get paid for
Economics is a zero sum game

A 'bridge' gets the vehicle over to the new place
Lots of promise and projects over there

Inside investors set it all up & sell it (greed)
Outside investors buy into the promise of fat returns (greed)

Money moves to the new place
Stuff gets paid for

Project/s complete/s
Inside investors move out & on

Checks (paper worth lots) get cashed
Economics is a zero sum game

Oops, the accountants f-cked up!
Dang bumbling execs & pols

Vehicle gets debased
Outside investors hold lots paper worth nothing
Economics is a zero sum game

There is lots on this side of the continent, globe, etc.
There's not so much over there

this is interesting:

www.reedconstructiondata.com...

Even uglier economic reports coming soon
Jim Haughey
RCD Chief Economist
Nov 14, 2008

The uniqueness of this recession is the panic about the eventual seriousness of the recession and temporary loss of credit access for many businesses in early September. The panic was inevitable since the problem was neither anticipated by most nor well understood when it happened. Everyone saw both Congress and the presidential candidates bewildered by the unexpected development and quite willing to defer to technical experts to find and implement a solution while they set about the important task of finding someone to blame.

This put enough spending, both investment and consumption, on hold to assure that October will be the weakest month in the economy since the post 9/11 period. Spending in the current quarter began at a level below the 3rd quarter average so GDP will drop in the 4th quarter as much a 4%. The downward momentum will bring another sizable, although smaller decline in the winter.

Private commercial construction will be one of the industries taking an outsized hit in the current quarter because it is so closely tied to financial markets. Other industries with larger than average declines will be the motor vehicles and electronics industries. The former has little reserve capacity left to absorb short term losses. The latter is a very cyclical industry that tracks closer to the world economy than to the US economy.

The anticipated 4% GDP drop is an annualized growth rate. It can occur if spending in November – the middle of the 4th quarter- is 1% below spending in August – the middle of the 3rd quarter. The jobs report for October already puts labor hour worked down 0.8% from August. The retail sales report for October, excluding the decline in gasoline prices, show consumer spending on track to decline more than 1% from August to November. Ominously, hours worked on construction job sites are off 2.8% from August to October.

What will keep the 4% declining pace from continuing into next year? Evidence that the credit fix is beginning to work will take the “hold” off some spending. The economy began this recession with relatively lean inventories. Dumping surplus inventories always accounts for most of the GDP decline during a recession via cuts in production jobs. However, some panic selling of inventories is already underway. Because commodity prices, especially oil and metals, were further above sustainable prices than usual at the onset of the recession, falling prices will cushion the decline in nominal consumer incomes. The ongoing price decline will be approximately large enough this quarter to offset the decline in spending that stems from the sharp recent drops in household assets, both housing and stocks.

www.iht.com...

The technology industry, which resisted the global economy's growing weakness over the last year as customers kept buying laptops and iPhones, has finally succumbed to the slowdown.

In the span of just a few weeks, orders for both business and consumer technology products have collapsed, and technology companies have begun laying off workers. The plunge is so severe that some executives are comparing it with the dot-com bust in 2001, when hundreds of companies disappeared and Silicon Valley lost nearly one-fifth of its jobs.

October "was like turning a switch," said Robert Barbera, chief economist at the Investment Technology Group, a research and trading firm. "Everything pretty much shut down."

great work shermanium

awesome stuff..

channel 4 talking about the g20 haha if they only knew...

Only said new world order once.......hahaha

[edit on 15-11-2008 by forshow]

www.contrarianprofits.com...

The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now

Nov 14th, 2008 | By Louis Basenese | Category: Financial News

Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…

You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).

Most of the indicators that the market relies on to forecast the future are worthless in this type of environment. The truth is the data coming out of the traditional economic indicators isn’t current. By the time it’s being reported, the information is already weeks or even months old.

If you want to know when the global slowdown that’s erased $28 trillion in wealth (so far) will finally reverse course, pay attention to the obscure Baltic Dry Index. And nothing else. Here’s why…

What Is The Baltic Dry Index?

Despite the name, the Baltic Dry Index has nothing to do with markets in Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia. Instead, it’s all about the cost of shipping major raw materials. Like iron ore, coal, grain, cement, copper, sand and gravel, fertilizer, even plastic granules.

The value for the index is determined by the London-based Baltic Exchange, which traces its origins back to 1744. Each day, the exchange canvasses hundreds of brokers around the world for price quotes on moving goods. For instance: Shipping 100,000 tons of coal from South Africa to Japan, or 50,000 tons of iron ore from Australia to China. It then aggregates the quotes to form the Baltic Dry Index.

Basic economic principles of supply and demand explain the significance of the index…

The supply of cargo ships is tight and inelastic. It takes roughly two years to build a new cargo ship. And the high cost of each prohibits docking ships during slow periods. In other words, a change in cargo rates does not change the number of ships in operation. So even the slightest changes in demand for shipping raw materials results in a change in the index.

And because the index tracks the cost of shipping raw materials - the precursors of economic output - instead of intermediate or finished goods, it provides a precise and rare measurement of the volume of global trade at the earliest possible stage.

A sharp move up, means global trade is increasing. Conversely, a sharp move down, means it’s decreasing. Since global economic activity ultimately influences the equity markets, sharp moves in the Baltic Dry Index often predict and precede similar moves in the equity markets.

4 Reasons to Favor The Baltic Dry Index

Of course, there are other reasons to favor the Baltic Dry Index over other leading indicators, including:

* No room for speculation. The index is not tradable, which means the only people booking cargo ships are those with actual cargo to ship. That makes the Baltic Dry Index, as economist Howard Simons put it, “totally devoid of speculative content.”

* Not subject to revisions. Unlike almost every other piece of economic data, the Baltic Dry Index is not revised on a monthly or quarterly basis. The price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.

* An inability to be manipulated. Governments, both here and abroad, love to “massage” economic data, especially inflation figures. Obviously, it’s difficult to base investment decisions off incomplete or “mostly” accurate data. But because of the way the Baltic Dry Index is measured, that’s simply not possible. Again, the price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.

* Real-time, daily updates. We all know markets shift fast. And in turn, we need indicators able to reflect those sudden movements. At best, we only get weekly updates for other leading indicators. And all are backward looking. The Baltic Dry Index represents the only indicator with “real-time” updates. And such frequency dramatically increases its relevancy and value.

In light of the above, it doesn’t take a market maven to predict what direction the index’s been heading lately - practically straight down. Here’s the thing. The Baltic Dry Index started plummeting in early June, before the global equity markets went into a tailspin, proving its predictive abilities.

So if you’re looking for a clear indication of a market bottom, forget about any other leading indicator or popular convention. Just look for the Baltic Dry Index to start trending noticeably higher.

Good investing,

Lou Basenese

then we got this, this was posted here before, but it needs to be seen in terms of the above articles:

www.sacbee.com...

The scrap market took a nosedive in late September. At first, industry analysts thought they were seeing a short-term "Olympics effect" from the shutdown of Chinese paper mills and other big polluters during the Summer Games in Beijing. But as the weeks of rock-bottom prices wore on, the cause became clear.

China, a voracious consumer of West Coast scrap, has all but stopped buying used paper and plastic because international demand for Chinese products made from these recyclables has diminished. Much of the material goes to making cardboard and plastics for packaging everything from iPods to eyewear, computers and cars.

"A lot of the material was going to China to make boxes for all the things they were shipping back to the United States," said Bruce Savage, spokesman for the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries in Washington, D.C. "When they aren't producing products, they don't need the packaging materials."

[edit on 15-11-2008 by shermanium]

[edit on 15-11-2008 by shermanium]

morningsentinel.mainetoday.com...

"Recyclable materials that communities collect ... are raw material for a factory," said John Albertini, program coordinator for Maine Resource Recovery Association, a Bangor-based non-profit that markets waste commodities for 150 Maine cities and towns. "The factories need less raw material for new products because they can't sell the products they already made."

Waste from southern Maine get made into everything from phone books to fleece jackets to detergent bottles. Some of the scrap stays in Maine and some goes overseas.

China has become a primary market for America's old cardboard and paper, which its factories use to produce and package consumer products. The collapse of demand from China has been a primary cause of the collapse in prices.

The collapse means ecomaine and communities across the state are making little money, if any, on the sale of the cans, paper, plastic and cardboard that gets sorted out of the trash. If the prices stay low for long enough, it could mean municipal budget shortfalls and spending cuts.

and its not just in the USA:

www.telegraph.co.uk...

Watchdog warn of mountains of bottles and scrap metal by the roadside
Bottle mountains are expected to build up in warehouses across the country, the Environment Agency has warned, after a collapse in the market for recycled materials.


By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent
Last Updated: 10:16PM GMT 12 Nov 2008

Scrap metal will also be dumped on roadsides, the agency predicts.

The economic downturn and the end of the Olympics in China means that the market for old metal, plastic and paper has hit rock bottom. For example the price of plastic has fallen from £200 per ton to virtually nothing.

Local authorities across the country have written to the Government asking for restrictions to be lifted in storing recycled materials as mountains of plastic bottles, aluminium cans and paper are expected to build up in warehouses across the country until the market recovers.

Now the Environment Agency, which is in charge of the safe disposal of waste in England and Wales, has drawn up guidelines to ensure that the recycled materials are stored safely.

The document warns that the fall in the price of scrap metal could lead to an increase in the abandonment of vehicles and it may be necessary to store materials until the market improves.

[edit on 15-11-2008 by shermanium]

November 15 2008

15/11/2008





A Wise Investor..

Would Watch The Contagion..

And Invest Accordingly..

As TSW Likely HTF “Over-There”..

Before It “Hits It” Here.



The Banks Will Offer Better Advice As..

They Hand Out South Korean Military Enlistment Forms:

“The Greedy American Middle-Class Worker..

Is To Blame

For Your Financial Woes!

A wise investor would watch the "contagion"?

Contagion: Emotional contagion is the tendency to express and feel emotions that are similar to and influenced by those of others. One view of the underlying mechanism is that it represents a tendency to automatically mimic and synchronize facial expressions, vocalizations, postures, and movements with those of another person and, consequently, to converge emotionally

From what I can get from his new post, R is saying that we will continue to see a rise in angered South Korean investors because they were given bad investment advice from Seoul banks.

Then South korea will start enlisting for their military and they will blame "The Greedy American Middle-Class Worker" for their financial woes.

Kinda reminds me of Nazi Germany when Hitler killed all those jews because he blamed them for the countries poor economy.




[edit on 15-11-2008 by MatrixBaller04]

[edit on 15-11-2008 by MatrixBaller04]

The Banks Will Offer Better Advice As..

They Hand Out South Korean Military Enlistment Forms:



“The Greedy American Middle-Class Worker..

Is To Blame

For Your Financial Woes!

english.aljazeera.net...

Investors protest at S Korea bank
Investors say the bank did not give them enough warning that their cash was at risk

A group of investors has staged a protest outside the headquarters of South Korea's second-biggest bank in the capital, Seoul.

Dozens of people clashed with security officials on Friday outside the offices of Woori Bank as they tried to remove barriers and enter the building.

Several protesters said they had lost as much as 80 per cent of their money after Woori suffered heavy losses through investments linked to US subprime mortgage assets.

They had invested in the Power Income fund and say they lost their money because the bank did not give them enough information about performance.

Kwon Jeong-ja told the Associated Press news agency: "I'm 71-years old. How can I go for the rest of my life without this money?

"The money I invested was all I had for my future life."

[edit on 15-11-2008 by shermanium]

www.reuters.com...

S.Korea bank ordered to share investor fund losses
Tue Nov 11, 2008 9:08pm EST

SEOUL, Nov 12 (Reuters) - A South Korean regulator has ordered a domestic bank to cover half of the losses suffered by an investor on a fund it sold due to its failure to explain the product's risks, in a decision that could pave the way for more such cases.

The verdict, handed down by the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) on Tuesday, was the first of its kind in the country since the booming mutual fund market fizzled out this year, hit by the global credit crunch and tumbling stock markets.

The FSS decision may prompt a flurry of similar cases by individual investors who have switched from bank accounts into mutual funds since 2005 on the hopes of higher returns. The regulator has already received over 100 complaints related to the same investment product.

"The bank did not provide explanatory notes to the investor, who had no experience with buying funds, when it sold the derivatives investment product," the FSS said in a statement.

"It also told the investor that the fund had almost a zero chance of losing the principal sum, leading the buyer to mistake it for a bank deposit in which the principal payment was guaranteed."

Woori Bank spokesman Jung Heekyung said on Wednesday it had raised 150 billion won ($113 million) through the fund, named Power Income, in November and December 2005.

The fund had lost about 80 percent of its value as of Tuesday because of its exposure to U.S. subprime mortgage assets, including Fannie Mae (FNM.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which were seized by regulators in September after the two largest U.S. mortgage finance companies faced mounting losses.

"Upon receiving the (FSS's) mediation order, which is not legally binding, we will decide whether to accept it or not," Jung said by telephone.

The bank is the main arm of the country's No. 2 financial services firm Woori Finance Holdings (053000.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

Appealing or ignoring the FSS order means the issue would develop into a court dispute.

An FSS official said the decision followed a request by an individual investor, identified only as a 58-year-old housewife, and marked the first time that the regulator required compensation for as much as half of an investor's losses on a fund.

Shares in Woori Finance fell 4.2 percent to 6,470 won by 0131 GMT, underperforming a flat wider market .KS11.

(Reporting by Kim Yeon-hee; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)

So they lost their money due to our mortgage problems....Yep...blame the greedy middle class.

This is setting us up for war.

::EDIT:: Check your U2U's btw shermanium

[edit on 15-11-2008 by MatrixBaller04]

haha got it matrix.

shermanium at hotmail dot com

new update on r's site in regards to this speech by Bush:

www.whitehouse.gov...

I don't really understand the point R is trying to make with the speech.

Care to elaborate sherm?

new update on R's site about "TroopTube"

Pentagon launches TroopTube, its own YouTube
3 days ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) — More than a year after banning US soldiers from using YouTube, the Pentagon has launched TroopTube, its own video-sharing site.

"TroopTube is the new online video site designed to help military families connect and keep in touch while miles apart," TroopTube said in a statement on its homepage at Trooptube.tv.

It said the site was meant for use by "Active Duty, Guard, Reserve and their families" -- an estimated four million people.

Videos on TroopTube can be viewed by any visitor but registration is required to upload material to the site.

One of the videos on the homepage is a tribute to the troops from General David Petraeus, the new commander of Central Command, for their "tremendous work" in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

TroopTube was created in partnership with a Seattle, Washington-based startup, Delve Networks, and Marion, Montgomery, Inc., a marketing and interactive agency.

In May 2007, the Pentagon banned US servicemen using Department of Defense computer systems from using YouTube, MySpace and 10 other social-networking websites.

It said the ban was intended to prevent military Internet connections from being clogged with uploads or downloads of data-rich files such as video clips.

The move was also meant to guard against infiltration by malicious or spying software hidden in files by hackers.

Until the ban, US soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan had been using YouTube and social networks to share videos, images or stories about their daily lives.

US soldiers are still allowed to write online journals, or "milblogs," using Department of Defense networks as long as they adhere to requirements not to reveal information that could jeopardize missions.

MySpace, YouTube and the other websites were targeted for restriction after a usage study showed they were the most visited websites by soldiers, according to the Pentagon.

So the troops aren't allowed to visit Youtube...no more "Freedom of Information" I guess you could say.

[edit on 15-11-2008 by MatrixBaller04]

ones to watch... link

CRH Plc of Ireland and Hochtief AG and Siemens AG of Germany lead a list of European building and engineering companies that may benefit from emergency U.S. spending on roads, bridges and power plants.

``There is a feeling there will be an increase in infrastructure spending,'' Malcolm Paul, finance director at Britain's WSP Group Plc, which helped design New York's Freedom Tower, said in a phone interview yesterday on his return from a U.S. business trip. ``Investment across the U.S. has been pretty poor. But it's not likely to come through until 2010.''

nothing to see here - move along!

Grassley Seeks Probe of Tax Ruling Before Wachovia Takeover

Iowa Senator Charles Grassley said a tax ruling that helped Wells Fargo & Co. buy Wachovia Corp. raises concerns about ``preferential treatment'' for Wachovia, which is headed by former Treasury Department Undersecretary Robert Steel.

In a letter sent to Treasury Inspector General Eric Thorson, Grassley asked for an investigation into the Internal Revenue Service ruling because it would let Wells Fargo shelter about $74 billion from U.S. taxes and ensure top Wachovia executives collect golden-parachute severance payments.

you have to laugh at the absurdity of it...

Bush to Nominate Barofsky as Rescue Plan Inspector

Barofsky, 38, now oversees the mortgage-fraud group for the Southern District of New York, an eight-lawyer unit created by Manhattan U.S. Attorney Michael Garcia. Prosecutors in the unit won a conviction yesterday of two people who duped lenders and homeowners facing foreclosure out of millions of dollars.

i'll repeat that in case you missed it...

two people


[sarcsm] gee - can't wait till they start on the big guys [/sarcasm]

justyc, thanks for those fantastic videos (prev. page)!

this is funny too, you have to keep smiling!



[edit on 15-11-2008 by shermanium]