Major Hurricane Ike

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

NHC

While good news for us, it's bad news for Cuba no matter how you look at it. Those people are getting hammered by Ike.
If Ike continues his current path, he should be reduced to cat 1 or even tropical storm status when he exits Cuba on Tuesday before reintensifying in GOMEX.

The forecast models made some surprising runs overnight. The model that's been performing the most reliably this year, the GFDL, now pulls Ike quite a bit eastward after 5 days (along with a couple others). NHC is not ready to change the official track yet, but this reminds us that everyone in coastal areas from TX/MX to the FL panhandle needs to keep an eye on Ike. He's extremely difficult to forecast and no one, not even the guys with PhD's, is ready to call a CONUS landfall region.

We're still looking at 5-7 days to landfall and things will change. The way Ike has been behaving, a lot is likely to change!

Oh, and my earlier gut feeling about Ike not riding across Cuba looks to have been completely wrong. Maybe I should have gut feelings about a terrible landfall in the US to increase his chances of dissipating or being abducted by aliens or something?

Talk about dodging a bullet, sadly it is at the expense of others. I really feel bad those in the Turks/Caicos, Cuba and Haiti. contact your favorite charity if you're in the position to do so.

My advice to anyone in the cone of Ike, prepare now, don't panic, just think of it as a possibility, have everything ready and then just calmly wait. If you're in an evacuation zone, then please leave when told to do so.

I'm not even going to try to guess or estimate where Ike may go, I'll be spending my time "hoping for best" for all those in the current and future path.

Again with being difficult to forecast! Good lord, Ike.

Ike's center of circulation is now entirely over water, having dropped south off of Cuba and into the waters of its southern shore. What this means is he's now back over the "fuel" that keeps hurricanes going, being warm waters. This was in the realm of the forecast cone, but it wasn't the strongest possibility...especially after showing some more northern trending yesterday.
There's no saying for certain how long he'll stay over water, but as things now it looks like it'll be the rest of the day today and possibly part of the overnight hours. After that, Ike should shoot northwest over the short stretch of land north of the Isle of Youth and emerge into GOMEX. Where he goes after that is still uncertain.

Though his core structure is disrupted, Ike is still a well formed, symmetric storm. He had some trouble with his southern side after landfall due to the high Cuban mountains on the eastern coast blocking inflow, but it looks like he's recovered from that. He's definitely torn up from battering Cuba, just not as badly as he would have been had he traversed the island nearly coast to coast. That said, Ike still appears to be carrying an eyewall.
He's been weakened to a category 2 storm with 100mph winds and may be further weakened to cat 1 status at the 5pm update. Being over the water, he's not as likely to weaken to tropical storm strength.

As before, everyone from TX/MX to the FL pandhandle should be watching Ike.

Youtube video of Ike's waves & storm surge in Cuba
Ike kills 60+ Haitians, destroys parts of Turks & Caicos

[edit on 9/8/2008 by anachryon]

The models continue to change every update, it seems that they cant decide if Ike is going to hit near Nola or somewhere near Houston.
Now, for the time being, they are equally split, one half going to Houston and the other half coming to Corpus Christi, which is where I live
Im not worried though, I live 70' up, what really sucks is not having power.
All it takes is a decent thunderstorm here to knock power out for a couple of hours and the heat sucks.
I dont expect landfall here though, the freakin models are nuts on this storm and I've lost faith in them all, lol.

Glad youre out of the woods though worldwatcher.. oh and thanks btw




[edit on 9/8/2008 by Kr0n0s]

Models don't seem to be in very good agreement other than a hit on the Texas Coast, a gut feeling I have says it's going to make a line for Houston, but by the time I say that it'll go after the southern portion of Texas. Ike is an interesting beast to say the least.

Real quick before I run out the door - Ike is down to cat 1 strength with 80mph winds. Good news for the remainder of Cuba expected to be hit by Ike sometime tomorrow!
Pressure is still at 965mb, though, so I won't be surprised to see him strengthen rather quickly.

reply to post by Kr0n0s


I live in Corpus also. I'm definately keeping an eye on this storm. We are supposed to move this weekend. Guess that ain't happening now.

According to Dr. Jeff Master’s Blog, Ike is expected to increase to at least a Cat 3 and landfall is expected between the Tex/Mex border and Corpus Christi.

The models have been all over the place on this one. We’ll have to wait a few more days to see if the current conditions in the gulf are going to increase Ike’s intensity and where they will steer him.

my gut feeling is that the projected model will have ike hitting more south than corpus...
maybe valley or north mexico. i think the projected path will keep having it go more south. isnt there an air current right now in the golf that will push it more south? ike seems very slow/weak so wouldnt that south air current push it further down?

Right now, Brownsville, Texas looks to be in the bulls eye of Ike. South Padre Island and Brownsville just recovered from Hurricane Dolly on Jul 24th this year and an article in the LA Times mentions alittle about the levee system there and what will happen if a larger hurricane hits.

But flood control officials still were worried about a similar outcome with Dolly, noting that the levees on the Rio Grande have been deteriorating for decades and might not hold.

"We have done studies of our levee systems, which modeled what would happen if a 100-year flood went through," Spener said, "and there are some segments in Hidalgo County that would be topped."

LA Times article

reply to post by krossfyter


Taking any of the projected courses there,that the longest stretch in that gulf..A long time over warm water to regain fuel.

The latest models now project landfall north of Corpus.  Each update has a different model.  It’s enough to drive me crazy.

Yes, a lot can happen once Ike regains the water.

All I'd say is that anyone in the scatter gun area of possible landfalls should make contingency plans now.

This is what a friend of mine (not a professional meteorologist, but part of the UKweatherworld team of experienced amateurs who have been following hurricanes for a good many years) has to say.

Source

Ike will be emerging into the GOM in a few hrs. The 12Z Track Guidance is surprisingly in reasonable agreement a WNW to NW turn over the GOM as the 1st of two upper troughs moves into the Central US. This first one will not be ebnough to pick up IKe, and pressure looks set to rebuild into the CS US. This will turn IKE more westerly over Thurs period. As we go into Friday, another trough emerges from the Western US and begins to move east. Global Models should have a better handle on the outcome here due to their larger ranges. The UKMET, ECM, and now 12Z GFS indicate that the trough will be deep enough to erode the ridge and turn Ike NW toward the Texas Coast. The amount of turn is down to the speed of Ike and the speed of the upper trough. however the GFS and UKMEt are similar, the GFS a little further SW. However the Central Coast of Texas has just seen its chances increase of a direct hit from Ike.

The intensity is problematical. The Oceanic and Upper level pattern is highly favourable for strengthening. The storm is forecast to pass over at least 3 warm eddys and the shear is light to zero. The Hurricane has a well established outflow that is excellent in all quadrants . Its negative for strengthening is its size. Ike is becoming a monster. TS force winds extend outwards a few hundred miles. These tpes of storm take a while to gather their strength and their is a chance Ike will not strenghten much. However if the favouable factors combine and the inner core does start to deepen quickly again then Ike could become a real huge hurricane. ITs satellite presentation even over Cuba tonight looks very impressive and much stronger than it actually is. I am not quite bullish enough to support the HWRF, but all the Globals suggest Ike will deepen over the GOM, now whilst they cannot gauge a hurricanes internal structure they can model the upper atmosphere and that is forecast to be very conducive to strengthening. Ike could be a very powerful Hurricane approaching the Texas coast in a few days...

[edit on 9-9-2008 by Essan]

reply to post by darkelf


Do you plan on evac'n darkelf?
Most of my family is taking off on Thursday if the track looks like its coming to Corpus but I think that Im going to hang out here, a decision that ill probably regret when the power goes out and im burning up.
I live on the bay, on the 7th floor so Im not worried about drowning but I will shoot some video of it, unless im hiding in the closet

Anyway, according to W.U. Ike is re-building his eyewall and is expected to strengthen overnight.

Hurricane Ike has taken advantage of the warm Gulf of Mexico waters it is over, and has already built an eyewall. At 7:02 m EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found a complete eyewall, which can also be seen on infrared satellite loops and Key West radar. The infrared satellite imagery also shows a rapid cooling of the cloud tops in Ike's eyewall and some of the spiral bands, indicating that the thunderstorms are penetrating higher into the atmosphere--a sign of strengthening. The latest data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the pressure has begun to fall, but Ike's winds remain at minimal hurricane force, 75 mph. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday.

Heres the current GFDL model run, it probably wont animate on here though, so ill add the link to it also.

GFDL


W.U.

reply to post by Kr0n0s


I was plannin on taking some stuff to my son in Sabinal late Thursday and being back by this weekend, looks like we'll leave earlier than planned and stay a little longer. I don't need to evac unless it hits cat 4. I live in a cat 3 area but I would hate to have to stay days here with no AC. By the way, I think the bay area is cat 1.

I'm in the middle of packing for an out of state move. Looks like we may be delayed a few days. It always rains whenever we move, should be used to that by now.

Interesting that Hurricanes / tropical depressions that have taken a similar route like Ike have petered out over Cuba due to wind sheers.

Here's some history about TD Chris in 2006

www.stormpulse.com...

Ike

Tropical Storm Chris moved to the northwest and gradually strengthened before reaching its peak strength on August 2 with winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), when it was to the northeast of the United States Virgin Islands. More » The storm was forecast to strengthen further and become a hurricane as it moved into the Bahamas. However, Chris began to be affected by wind shear and became disorganized.

lets hope this one gets sheered off too !!

reply to post by Tuebor


Looks like low shear and good chance for probable cat 3, possible cat 4.

Intensity forecast for Ike
Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large and well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening is ready to occur, now that Ike has built a new eyewall. I expect Ike will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by Wednesday night, and Ike has the potential to become a Category 4 hurricane by Thursday, as forecast by the HWRF and GFDL models. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots, for the remainder of Ike's life. Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy (Figure 3). There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is more likely that Ike will be able to maintain major hurricane status as it approaches the coast. The GFDL model predicts landfall near Corpus Christi as a Category 3 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall. Given the impressive appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at landfall, I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:

Category 1 or weaker: 20%
Category 2: 30%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4 or 5: 20%
Source

reply to post by darkelf



Okaaaaay,


So much for getting sheered.
It doesn't look like anything will get in the way of this motha!
I hope Corpus Christi is preparing.
I noted earlier that Brownsville and the county it lies in has weak levees. I hope that's not the case in CC.

reply to post by Tuebor

I noted earlier that Brownsville and the county it lies in has weak levees. I hope that's not the case in CC.

We have no levees to speak of, no need for them really, there may be some in the northern areas that im not familiar with though but the Nueces river isnt that big and CC bay is only about 13 feet deep with a few exceptions. The seawall near downtown CC is about 4 feet high and not very long at all.
The seawall, if you can call it a seawall, thats below my condo building is about 2 feet high but my building is built up quite a few feet so I think my truck will be ok in the above ground parking lot