Major Hurricane Ike

reply to post by worldwatcher


South Florida(Palm Beach) here as well. I have a real bad feeling about Ike. Even South Florida can't take a direct hit from a cat 4. Every roof in its path will be gone and in many cases the entire home will be as well.

One of the scariest days in my life was riding out Andrew, ocean front on South Beach (Clevelander Hotel). About 5 minutes after we retreated to the hallways, every window in the lobby blew out. Thank God we missed the worst of it. Where the eye hit everything was destroyed.

Same will happen with a Cat 4 in Palm Beach. Let's hope it moves away. Regardless I will finish installing shutters this week on the 2 windows I haven't done yet.

For anyone else in South florida, Habitat for humanity runs thrift stores where you can buy used hurricane panels for $2 a foot, and home depot has 86" shutters on sale for $14 ($50 reg price), Smaller sizes on sale as well.

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


Accuweather has South Florida back in the cone for Hannah as well, albeit on the edges. The way this course has shifted it wouldn't surprise me a bit if I we wake up tomorrow and it is coming straight at us.

Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
For anyone else in South florida, Habitat for humanity runs thrift stores where you can buy used hurricane panels for $2 a foot, and home depot has 86" shutters on sale for $14 ($50 reg price), Smaller sizes on sale as well.

This is great info, thanks for posting it!
It wouldn't hurt to make sure those in the Southeast in general have any necessary shutters/plywood, some fresh water, nonperishable food, and other hurricane necessities stocked and ready to go. We haven't technically entered the "peak" of hurricane season, and there'll be more coming across the Atlantic in coming weeks.

Hurricane Ike is now a Cat 4!
www.wunderground.com...

I am watching Ike very anxiously right now.

I agree that South Florida really can't handle a Cat 4. We would be devastated for months after that. Even if you have shutters and are prepared to deal with the aftermath, a Cat 4 can do major structural damage to homes. I'm currently considering evacuating my family if that black line in the cone of uncertainty keeps pointing at me.

Floridians need to use this time right now to prepare for the absolute worst and hope and pray for the best.

btw I read this last night and got myself even more worked up, I ended up sending my husband into the attic after midnight last night just to assure me that our roof has braces and hurricane straps.

This could be a very likely scenario if Ike was to head straight into the urban areas of Miami, Broward or Palm Beach
www.globalsecurity.org...

I don't like posting links to my forum, but in the interests of public information, for those concerned about Hanna and Ike there is some good, informed, discussion here:

www.ukweatherworld.co.uk...

With specific evaluation of Ike here:

www.ukweatherworld.co.uk...

reply to post by Essan


I've got a bad feeling about Ike.
Apparently wind shear squished Gustav.
But Ike is going to be heading uninterrupted into warm wet air supplied by Gustav and Hannah..
It would seem like they've laid fuel for the fire.

Dammit, Ike. I was hoping he'd fall apart while I was at work, but that's obviously not the case.

As discussed earlier in the Gustav thread, there's a blog on wunderground.com by noted tropical specialist Dr. Jeff Masters with daily updates and analysis of current cyclone activity. Dr. Masters often has interesting insight; while the blog may be a difficult read for those completely new to meteorology due to slightly less-than-plain-English, it's an excellent resource to follow the tropics. I mention Dr. Masters because there are a couple bits from his most recent update that I wanted to touch on here.

It is impossible to know at this time when or if Ike will turn to the north, and whether Florida might be spared the full brunt of Ike. Ike may be a threat to North Carolina in the longer term, and one possible scenario for the hurricane would be a repeat of Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Floyd bore down on Florida as a borderline Category 4/5 hurricane before turning at the last moment, eventually hitting North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Another scenario, which is suggested by the ECMWF model, is that Ike would recurve but not get pulled all the way out to sea. Instead, Ike might get trapped in a region of weak steering currents and wander for a few days, like Fay and now Gustav have done. This could occur offshore the East Coast, or over the Florida Peninsula.

The gist of Dr. Masters' update is that we have no solid track on where Ike will go except at some point in the Bahamas region he should turn towards the north.
* He may get pulled north by atmospheric conditions early on and completely avoid CONUS, heading out into sea, which would be the best scenario and what I'm hoping for. Unfortunately this is not the most likely scenario.
* He may continue his forward momentum and slam into Cuba before turning north, which would weaken him tremendously. Real bad for Cuba, but good for CONUS.
* He may take more of a Hanna track, missing FL but impacting the mid-Atlantic. This is another one of those "not terrible, but not great either" scenarios; he would miss the super-saturated FL this way and should weaken significantly before impacting GA or the Carolinas. Still, a category 2 hurricane hitting the Carolinas would be very bad indeed. With Hanna's track zeroing in on the mid-Atlantic, there will be damage and flooding already in place.
* The second-worst case scenario is Ike impacting S FL as a major (cat 3+) hurricane. Yeah, that's the second worst thing that could happen. The damage would be tremendous, but in this scenario Ike would still be moving quickly and would "get in and get out."
* The worst case? Dr. Masters touches on it in the last two lines of the above quoted part of his blog. One of the major models has Ike pull a Fay and just hang around for awhile, potentially right over FL. With the state already soaked to the bone after Fay, IMO this would be a nightmare scenario. The damage may not be as locally severe as with a direct major hurricane impact, but it would be widespread moderate to severe damage over most of the state.

Major model tracks can be found in the following image. These will update as the models update.



On the slightly upside of things, the 5pm update has Ike slightly weakened.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

Unfortunately I'm in Hanna's path, and her 5pm update has her impacting me even more than previously thought. I'll continue monitoring Ike and hope I don't lose power in coming days.

Unfortunately I'm in Hanna's path, and her 5pm update has her impacting me even more than previously thought. I'll continue monitoring Ike and hope I don't lose power in coming days.

Hey man, dont worry about Hanna, shes gonna be a pussykat
Youll get some nice Tstorms and a little wind, if you need a new roof, nows the time to make SURE you GET IT from your Ins company

Now Ike idk, Jeff Masters said that only 1 out of 10 storms on his path actually strike the US coast but the latest models seems to put him more on track to be that 10% storm that does because at 2pm on Tuesday the track has Ike just off the Miami coast.
It will be nice to go back to Florida, I havent been there since 04 and it beats the HELL out of Louisiana.

I don't think that Hanna will get out of the way fast enough and in turn Ike will not be to much of a threat unless Hanna races to the north quickly. Last night Ike had winds off 145mph.

If Ike continues to follow Hanna then Ike will be following her rain cooled waters and not continue to be so strong and may even weaken. There is a chance that this could get real bad for some part of the southeast coast of the U.S. but I think that flooding is going to be the major concern and not damaging winds.

Ike looks just like Hurricane Andrew and if you remember that storm increased in strengthen big time in the small distance between the Bahamas and Miami.

there are aircraft being moved from Homestead AFB, so I would assume the USAF meteorologists feel it will be a FL major hurricane........

Or should I post it in one of the conspiracy forums and claim that it must mean USG prior knowledge of the track?

Originally posted by habu71
there are aircraft being moved from Homestead AFB, so I would assume the USAF meteorologists feel it will be a FL major hurricane........

Or should I post it in one of the conspiracy forums and claim that it must mean USG prior knowledge of the track?

They better, Those planes cost tons of money. They do this every time one gets near as a precaution. I remember after Andrew how bad that base got destroyed. One F-16 that could not fly was left on the tarmac to get flipped and all tore up. They should have air lifted that expensive plane out of the area but thats how dumb our wasteful government is.

reply to post by Sky watcher



Here is the latest information that Masters says on Ike.

Track forecast for Ike The computer models were in two distinct camps this morning, but are now in better agreement on a more southerly track for Ike. This increases the danger for the Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and Florida. A southward component of motion is now forecast by all of the computer models except the UKMET, making it very likely that Ike will move into the Bahamas by Sunday. The GFDL is the furthest south, projecting a landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane on Sunday night. The UKMET is the furthest north, projecting that Ike will miss the Bahamas, but hit South Florida. All of the models bring Ike within 200 miles of Miami by Tuesday. The HWRF brings Ike to a point 50 miles from Miami on Tuesday, as a Category 4 hurricane.

I just dont think that hanna is or will be big enough to stir up to much cold water in that area, she is actually kind of falling apart, her future is up in the air i think.
Of course, im not a meteorologist, so what do I know

Forgot to add this and the link to source, dont wanna get accused of plagiarism

Ike's long-term fate has two main possibilities: 1) Ike may hit eastern Cuba, as forecast by the latest (12Z, 8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and ECMWF models, and a number of ensemble members of the latest 12Z GFS model (Figure 2). A hit on Cuba would severely disrupt the storm, weakening it to a Category 1 or 2. Ike could then move on into the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify, as forecast by the ECMWF model. 2) Ike may plow through the Bahamas and come very close to South Florida (the consensus of the HWRF, NOGAPS, and GFS models). A trough of low pressure may then pull Ike to north. This turn to the north might occur over Florida, or over the western Bahamas, within 200 miles of the Florida coast. In the latter case, North Carolina might be at risk. The recent model trend has been to depict a weaker trough, resulting in Ike getting stranded, like Fay and Gustav did. Ike would resume a slow motion to the west as ridge of pressure builds in, potentially crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. There is a third possibility--Ike may recurve before hitting the U.S., and move harmlessly out to sea. That possibility appears lower probability than cases 1 and 2 above, at this point.

Source




[edit on 9/4/2008 by Kr0n0s]

I went out on a limb in my previous post and discounted a potential GOMEX event with Ike, and it looks like there remains an outside chance I discounted too soon. The most recent models track Ike a little further south, which leaves the option open for him to either shoot through the FL strait or cut across Cuba into GOMEX.

It's looking more and more like Ike (whom I do not like) isn't going to turn northeast and head back out to sea. I'll continue to hope that does happen, but I do not expect it.

A FL impact of some sort is looking like the most possible scenario right now.

Tomorrow the data from recon flights will start flowing in and we should have a better idea of what to expect. We should have an official update on Ike at 11pm and 5am EST, and then at three hour intervals after that.

*sigh*

reply to post by anachryon


I live on the west coast so I hope that sucker one don't hit at all but two that it does not steam roll across the state. In 2005 we had two do that and we lost power, Trees and roofs to them.

During the night of the first one I stepped out on the porch to have a look see and almost got my throat cut by a spinning shingle that took the stucco off the house where it hit. Needless to say that I got back in the house quick and snuggled up with my woman.

Check out the latest HWRF run for IKE! Right through the Florida Straits, across the Keys and into the GoM.

HWRF

As of the 5 PM EDT statement they have Ike weaking over the next 24 hours. It will be interesting to see what transpires. I'm not too concerned about Josephine mainly because of all the systems ripping up the coast to intersect any path she may have, but that could change.

Ike right now is a monster, and is glaring right at the east coast. I can't see it heading for the Gulf, or turning south either, I don't know many storms that drop sharp. The Bahama's will likely not weaken him much, but may be enough to kick him back a cat.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

I'd like to see the pressure drop below Katrina and Camille.

I'd like to see the pressure drop below Katrina and Camille.

Are you nuts? Why do you want a Cat 5 to hit Florida? That is just sick. I would prefer that Ike does not set any records. It is going to be a crazy weekend in Florida.

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


I never said I wanted it to hit, I said I wanted to SEE the pressure drop below those two. I didn't say I wanted it to hit land like that.

I live in Fort Lauderdale and am currently "staring down the barrel" so to speak. My family and I have started our preparations by stocking up on food and water today. I also fired up the generator and tested it, seems to be working great. I already have hurricane shutters ready to go and all are organized. I have also already checked my roofing trusses for hurricane straps, and I have them all set. I live in an all cement walled house, with cement tiled roof that is angled up on all sides to allow for wind to easily pass over it. So hopefully it won't be an issue. It made it through Andrew and Wilma just fine, so I am hoping for the same this time, if it comes.

As far as boarding up, I have plans to get those up on Sunday. Until then I am filling up my propane tanks, and filling the two 50 gallon fuel drums I have. Any South Floridian who has been through hurricanes in the past knows how difficult it is to get fuel after the fact, so I pretty much prepare ahead of time. I usually have around 200 gallons to start.

So yeah, needless to say i am definitely watching this one very closely. Perhaps I can plan to setup some cameras to video the storm as it comes through so some of you can get a glimpse of what going through a hurricane is really like.