Major Hurricane Ike

This evening brings us the fifth named hurricane of the season: Ike.



Meteorologists have been watching Ike closely since he rolled off the African coast as a large tropical wave, and he's been quietly growing in intensity ever since.



Ike surprised everyone yesterday by developing the beginnings of an eye formation while still a tropical storm. He's following behind (now) Tropical Storm Hanna and as of now seems to be taking a similar path.

Ike is forecast to reach the Bahamas by Monday still at hurricane strength. From there, models diverge; some of the less-reliable models have him taking a strong northern turn and recurving back out to sea while others have him taking a more gradual northwest turn in the Bahamas area, bringing the SE CONUS within risk range. An outlier model or two have him heading west-northwest potentially through the FL strait and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The path of TS/Hurricane Hanna is likely to have a significant impact on Ike's eventual trek. If Hanna is able to maintain strength or even intensify, she stands a good chance of punching a hole of sorts into the ridge of high pressure that's been holding her near Hispanola over the past 24 hours. With this "hole," or weakening, in place, it could open what is essentially a pathway for Ike to follow in her wake.

As most of the current models have Ike making a more northerly path, it seems that Hanna has a good chance of opening up that weakness. Conditions for Ike are forecast to be more conducive to strengthening than Hanna had, and he's forecast to reach at least category 2 strength. Some models have him reaching a solid category 3.



We're still at 7-10 days from landfall, by current estimates, so there's no way to know for certain where exactly Ike will have an effect and exactly how strong he'll be when he gets there. Signs point to a strong storm, though, so he's one to keep an eye on. I would say, unfortunately, that those affected by Gustav and those who may be affected by Hanna need to watch Ike closely. He has what is, right now, a fairly equal chance of taking either route.

[edit on 9/3/2008 by anachryon]

[edit on 9/3/2008 by anachryon]

Very true....Ike is going to be an extremely powerful storm, especially if the shear reduces over the Bahamas......We here in SW Florida are taking Ike very seriously.........

I don't think it will be squat, once it hits the Bahamas it will die down a bit and head south...............I HOPE. This sux

To put the two storms into perspective, here is a link to a large image showing Hanna and Ike.

Large sat image of Hanna and Ike

I overlaid the satellite imagery of both storms with their tracks (via Google Earth) so you can see how Hanna is a major player in Ike's future. By comparing the dates on the tracks, you can see how Hanna will open a path for Ike to follow; this becomes obvious at the 9/5/08 points when Ike takes a southwestern jog to come more in line with Hanna's previous track.

Hanna may not be a particularly strong storm, but she's large and is affecting conditions over a wide area. The jagged green line going in every which direction is indeed Hanna's path over the last few days; she's been a pain in the you know what to predict moving around like that!

Has anyone else noticed how messed up the Weather Channel has been with the tropical storms this year? Their projected paths have been totally messed up and the predicted strengths of the storms as well.

Seriously. All wrong.

They have NEVER been this off on storm tracks and strengths as far as I can remember.

Originally posted by habu71
Very true....Ike is going to be an extremely powerful storm, especially if the shear reduces over the Bahamas......We here in SW Florida are taking Ike very seriously.........

We are watching on the Texas Gulf Coast as well. Sure will be glad when Hurricane season is over.

reply to post by FlyersFan


They are getting a lot wrong......One of the weather girls was getting basic geography wrong on multiple evenings.....I have quit watching the WC (even though I used to be addicted) and now depend on various internet sites.....

Originally posted by 38181
I don't think it will be squat, once it hits the Bahamas it will die down a bit and head south...............I HOPE. This sux

Sure hope you are right....But, the strength increase might be more than the small land mass of the Bahama Islands can mitigate.........I don't mind 40-50 kt winds and rain, but it's hard to sit on the beach and drink Heineken at wind speeds over that...

reply to post by anachryon

Is the track and time info on GE a layer? (new to GE, used to see the world from 85,000 ft, tho)....GE makes me nostalgic for my old job...

Originally posted by FlyersFan
Has anyone else noticed how messed up the Weather Channel has been with the tropical storms this year? Their projected paths have been totally messed up and the predicted strengths of the storms as well.

Seriously. All wrong.

They have NEVER been this off on storm tracks and strengths as far as I can remember.

Fay and Gustav were both very difficult to predict storms. No storm is "easy" to predict, but some just defy the models of everything meteorologists know!

Taking Gustav as an example: he had every atmospheric reason to blow up to cat 4+ in the Gulf past Cuba; the water was warm, shear was fairly low, no major ridges or troughs were down there to mess with him.
What happened wound up being sort of a reverse "perfect storm" situation. Rather than everything lining up just so to make him a monster, the timing was absolutely perfect for some otherwise minor conditions to rip him apart. It was expected that he would suffer damage and weakening over Cuba, which he did, but when he moved off Cuba into the extremely warm Loop Current there was moderate shear blowing in at just the right angle to take advantage of his weakened eye structure.

A hurricane's eye not only acts as a focal point for its center of circulation, but it also protects the hurricane from atmospheric conditions such as wind shear. It's like a suit of armor, for lack of a better comparison. A storm with a solid, well-developed eyewall can weather moderate to significant wind shear because that eyewall keeps the wind out of the central core of the storm. In Gustav's case, his eyewall was disrupted, as happens, when he passed over land. It was disrupted just enough to allow moderate (15kt) shear to sneak in there to his core and slow him down. Think of it like poking a spinning top with your finger. If there was a big plastic box around the top, any attempts to poke it would be fruitless. If, however, there were a hole or two in that box, you could get your finger through and poke at the top, disrupting its rotation and slowing it down.
That's what happened with Gus, only the plastic box was his eyewall and the poking finger was wind shear.

Fay, unfortunately, still hasn't quite been figured out. There's going to be some interesting new information added to forecasting models in coming years thanks to her....once the pros can figure out why she did some of the crazy things she did!

Originally posted by habu71
reply to post by anachryon

 

Is the track and time info on GE a layer? (new to GE, used to see the world from 85,000 ft, tho)....GE makes me nostalgic for my old job...

Yup! If you don't want to do the plotting yourself, this site has done all the work for you.

Holy.....schnikes!

I wasn't expecting this in the least.

...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD (sic) HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

NHC

Friday will be a telling day for Ike. He'll be far enough west that the Hurricane Hunters can reach him and we'll be able to get more exact data.

He now bears keeping a closer eye on than before. This dramatic upgrade was wholly unexpected. It looks like he's officially a Cape Verde hurricane which does not bode well if he makes CONUS landfall. Hugo, Andrew, Frances, and other damaging hurricanes were all CV's.

Well, I give up trying to predict anything Ike will do for now, unless that prediction is "barreling across the Atlantic like a bowling ball getting stronger and stronger and stronger."

...IKE BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

NHC

This is insane, guys. I don't know what to say; he wasn't supposed to do this. 2008 is really turning into a season with storms that don't do what they're supposed to do.

Keep a super-close eye on Ike, and I mean that. It's too early to start issuing doom and gloom on any geographic area, but unless Ike takes a huge curve north, someone's gonna get jacked up. 11pm track doesn't change much save for moving him forward a little bit; he's moving along at a good clip.

As things stand now, he's forecast to be in the Bahamas on Monday then taking a northerly or northwesterly turn towards the CONUS. This will shift, possibly drastically, as we get further along in his track.

I've heard Hurricane Hunters are staging in PR, so we may get recon data sooner than Friday. If they can safely make it out to him and back, this data is sorely needed and will help with forecasting where this buzzsaw is heading.


[edit on 9/3/2008 by anachryon]

Ike is a beast and I think it could potentially threaten any portion of the Florida peninsula and possibly the Gulf of Mexico.
Right now theyre guessing that it will either re-curve out to sea or skim up the Eastern US coast but most of these guesses depend on what Hanna does and how strong she gets.

Also, lets not forget about Josephine, she is a long ways off right now but she has potential.

You seem to be on top of things here anachryon, so theres no need for me adding all the gifs and models.

Do you post at wunderground? I just cant do it, aside from a couple that seem to know what theyre talking about, most of them just really grind on my nerves.
I used to though, my acct name there is "unkownuser" lol

cya

Can I just say that I am FREAKING out just a little bit. A Category 4 with the potential to become a Cat 5 is headed straight towards South Florida.

I'm prepared, but a Category 4!!!!! ahhh!!!!!

reply to post by worldwatcher


Aww, are you in Florida? Well, I hope you stay safe if Ike comes to visit

If you have to file a claim and I'm the adjuster, I'll hook you up right lol

Originally posted by 38181
I don't think it will be squat, once it hits the Bahamas it will die down a bit and head south...............I HOPE. This sux

Unlikely to head south, the coriolis effect will prevent that by flinging it on a northerly pattern. This is true for every circular storm, except in the southern hemisphere, cyclones and typhoons are flung in southerly directions

See the below thread for more

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Kr0n0s


I do post there, under a different name though. I'm all sorts of incognito here.

Any CONUS landfall with Ike would be disastrous at the rate he's going.
FL landfall...they've got strong buildings and the residents know how to handle a hurricane coming through, but they're absolutely saturated from Fay. I don't know how much more rain they could take.
SE CONUS....buildings aren't generally coded for a cat 3+ strike, nor are the residents as accustomed to cyclones. Plus Hanna is looking like she'll rake up the coast, so there's going to be rain saturation and general damage mere days before Ike (potentially) comes along.
GOMEX...I don't even want to think about the implications of Ike shooting into GOMEX and landfalling on the Gulf Coast somewhere. Fortunately this seems the least likely of the three landfall situations.

All we can hope for is a strong northeast recurve, I think. Ike has way too much time to increase his windfield and turn into a real monster.

(Severe Hurricane Survival Guide)

Stand upright.
Bend over forward at the waist.
Hook your arms around the back of your legs and pull tightly.
Then kiss your ass goodbye..



[edit on 3-9-2008 by Ravinsomniac]

Ike at 135mph now! what a bad ass

Lets see where hes at when i wake up!