War in Georgia

BBC: Eastern Europeans have offered to help Georgia.

Have no idea what that means, but some have offered help. I think the BBC are talking about mercenaries, but I am looking to see if any nation has offered troops.

Air strikes have occurred in Abkhazia

Turkish Navy off the coast of Georgia. This is going to get interesting as Russia is also sending in ships.


www.sindhtoday.net...

Originally posted by mrmonsoon


Ed, I like most anyone, do not have any delusion that Georgia can hold off Russia.

Showing the insane amount of military equipment Russia has over Georgia is unneeded.

The only exception to the would be if they held back a nuke or 2.

[edit on 8/9/2008 by mrmonsoon]

I just used the figures to emphasise the futility of Georgia's position. If Turkey joined the 'party' then maybe things might even out a bit

*Joke*

reply to post by Sky watcher


That's not a good sign nor is the rumour of Eastern Europeans offering so called support. Lets us hope we are not beyond the point of no return.

LATEST UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT:

Georgian forces in S. Ossetia have made several attempts to take control over Zarskaya road - the main connecting artery between S. Ossetia and Russia and the road used by Russian armor to enter the republic. Georgian tanks together with artillery support attempted to cut off the Russian forces. Control of this road is the key to the conflict, because whoever controls it controls South Ossetia for the most part. There are no reports if Russian forces were engaged in the fight, or if Georgian forces succeeded. Lastt night there were major defensive positions set up along the road by S. Ossetian militia. A second Russian column is expected to move in today, and could encounter Georgian tanks there.

(source in Russian)

cominf.org...


Tskhinvalli is still being shelled by Georgian artillery. Not much has changed in the city, and the number of dead civilians is rapidly rising. I could get no update on Russian VDV/Spetznaz forces that supposedly entered the city yesterday. Georgian tanks and BMPs were reported to be advancing towards the city from the south about 8 hours ago. We could only speculate that there is heavy fighting taking place there right now. Reports indicate that there was a heavy battle for the Priskkay heights, which is supposedly the key to controlling and shelling the city.


President Medvedev has held first telephone call with President Bush. Medvedev underscored that Georgia started the aggression.


Russian airforce has conducted new strikes, mostly in the Georgian town of Gori. This town is the base of Georgian operations against S. Ossetia. Those questioning this strike should remember that this is now more of a military base than a civilian city. Some civilian casualties were reported however (up to 60 according to Georgia). There is still no indication that Tbilisi has been bombed.

South Ossetia places the number of dead civilians above 2,000. New statistics of Russian military dead have not came in yet (last night they were at 15). Georgian reports of casualties vary widely at this point. Neither side's claims have been authenticated.

Abkhazia appears to have entered the war, and has launched a second front against the Georgians in the mountain region between Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgian sources report that the attack was repelled and there was no heavy fighting. However this now forces Georgia to channel more troops to control the difficult-to-defend mountain region from Abkhazian attacks. Abkhazian militia is known to be well adapted to warfare in that terrain. Abkhazia's attack included artillery fire. Keep in mind that Abkhazia is far better armed and has more fighters than South Ossetia. It is reported to have as many as 15,000 militia soldiers ready to fight.

Sukhumi (capital of Abkhazia) is reported to be quiet. It is unlikely that Georgia will be able to launch an attack there now. Most of Abkhaz militia has moved East and South towards the border with Georgia.

UN is readying an envoy to send to the conflict zone. How they plan to do that remains a question, as the heavy fighting rages throughout South Ossetia. Putin is reported to have arrived into North Ossetia. Putin defended Russia's actions as in compliance with UN charters.


Protests have been held in from of Russian embassy in Tbilisi and in front of Georgian embassy in Moscow. While the Georgian ambassador was recalled from Moscow when the fighting started, I am not sure if Russian diplomats are still in Georgia or if they were on the last flight back before air transportation was shut down with Moscow.

Georgia is officially in a state of war. Russia has not declared a state of war, and is not expected to.

Georgian Olympic team is ready to leave Beijing.


Russian government has issued a negotiations proposal to Georgia. It includes two conditions: 1. Georgia withdraws its troops from South Ossetia. 2. Georgia signs the ceasefire agreement.

(source in Russian)
www.rosbalt.ru...




I still could not get through in a telephone call to Tbilisi. My guess is that lines have been cut by the Georgians. It is known that broadcast of all Russian TV stations has stopped in Tbilisi.





WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

Expect major fighting to erupt on the second front in the Kodori Gorge between Georgia and Abkhazia. Skirmishes have already taken place and both sides are rapidly channeling troops there. I predict major fighting will start there with 24 hours. Russia has no access to the rugged mountanous region, and Abkhaz forces are on their own. They should however outnumber the Georgian troops there.

Tskhinvalli is still seeing heavy fighting. Rusian troops should be taking control of the city in less than 24 hours.

Expect Russian air force to start targting Georgian artillery and Grad installation in and around South Ossetia.

Possible future air strikes against government building in Tbilisi. Major targeting of the city is not expected however.

[edit on 9-8-2008 by maloy]

reply to post by AndrewTB

Does anyone think this could possible escalate and become WW3?


Any idea if the US is going to help Georgia?


I dunno but I have an inkling this is going to blow up into something far far bigger.

The OP shows nothing but bias. Non the less its a good topic/discussion so flagged and starred.

IMO there won't be WW3 because of this but then again I cannot predict the future. I think the US are more likely to provide help "behind the scenes" in the form of economic and political support but I do not think they will get involved in the armed conflict.

As for the OP's posts I think he is just giving his point of view, but he usually provides sources that anyone can follow and read and form their own opinion.

Originally posted by infinite
BBC: Eastern Europeans have offered to help Georgia.

Have no idea what that means, but some have offered help. I think the BBC are talking about mercenaries, but I am looking to see if any nation has offered troops.

Air strikes have occurred in Abkhazia

I suspect that this means Ukraine. Yuschenko has been holding talks with Saakashvilli since the fightng began and accused Russia of everything he could think of.

I have serious doubt any Ukrainian troops will be involved, or even that any volunteers will be involved. Georgia has not real allies ready to stand shoulder to shoulder with them.

Plus Ukraine is ready to split itself, with pro-Russiana anti-Russian side. I hear there are major protests in Kiev, but no sources.

This more like the dress rehearsal for World War Three, that term has been used on British media. There are so many unsolved conflicts in the former Soviet block that a potential global war will come for these areas.

IF the Turks are attacked or use force to protect the pipeline (or the Eastern Europeans enter the conflicts) then we can discuss a global war.

Originally posted by Sky watcher

www.daylife.com...

news.bbc.co.uk...

news.bbc.co.uk...

Yes they missed their targets so many times that one would have to think, Did they do this on purpose? I have seen a good picture of one building with its face blown off and a nice big crater in front of it where one missed.

Yeah the Russian airforce is sadly still known to be a blunt tool.

But so far I keep seeing the same destroyed building over and over and over again. Remember that Gori is now virtually a military base for Georgia, which is why it is being targted. Gori is very close to Tskhinvali, and Georgian artillery is able to shell the S. Ossetian city from there.


So far there are no picture, but many sources are saying Georgians leveled Tskhinvalli. I would think that is a bit more severe than one bombed building in Gori.

reply to post by maloy


Ukraine has a nuclear arsenal and it would be stupid for them to offer military support. The conflict will spread into Central Europe. But according to their media, Ukraine has offered diplomatic support.



Ukranian News

It must of been another Eastern European nation(s) that have offered military support. Maybe Poland.

Russian military source states that right now the deciding battles of the war are taking place. One at Zarskay road, and one South of Tskhinvalli. If Georgian troops are repelled from both regions now, they are done for in S. Ossetia.

However Russia still has only 150 pieces of armor in South Ossetia near Tskhinvalli, which is not a lot compared to Georgia, especially if you take into account Georgian artillery. Russian troops may be repelled from Tskhinvalli again, in which case they would have to wait for backup from another column prepared to enter the conflict zone. Russian airforce seems to be the key now. Attack helicopters have also been seen crossing the border.

reply to post by maloy


Abkhazia is rumoured to be getting worse and worse by the hour.
But, it seems, reports are taking time to come out of that region.

Originally posted by infinite
reply to post by infinite

 

Russia has bombed Georgian forces in Abkhazia.

Reports of a new front has opened in Abkhazia, Georgia has called for international help but NATO and EU have ruled out support.

So the Georgian puppet wants to be bailed out.He only launched this attack because he thought he wolud have international support.Sorry, about your damn luck,Georgia.

Originally posted by maloy
Russian military source states that right now the deciding battles of the war are taking place. One at Zarskay road, and one South of Tskhinvalli. If Georgian troops are repelled from both regions now, they are done for in S. Ossetia.

However Russia still has only 150 pieces of armor in South Ossetia near Tskhinvalli, which is not a lot compared to Georgia, especially if you take into account Georgian artillery. Russian troops may be repelled from Tskhinvalli again, in which case they would have to wait for backup from another column prepared to enter the conflict zone. Russian airforce seems to be the key now. Attack helicopters have also been seen crossing the border.

Humm,This is gonna be interesting,man Im thinking that by morning here the Russian army is going to have that back up.

Originally posted by infinite
Abkhazia is rumoured to be getting worse and worse by the hour.
But, it seems, reports are taking time to come out of that region.

An old collegue of mine is currently working in Sukhumi. His wife tells me everything is quiet in the city, and the Abkhaz authorities do not expect Georgia to enter the region. The city is pretty deep inside the separatists' territory unlike Tskhinvalli. Plus the terrain would not permit tanks to enter from the East where Georgians are stationed.

I think Georgians are mostly on the defensive there in the Kodori Gorge. Due to absense of armor in the gorge region, expect mostly artillery attacks and infantry engagement.


I have vacationed in Abkhazia multiple times. The region unlike South Ossetia is virtually inpenetrable. On one side there are mountains, and along the Black Sea every road and field is heavily mined.

Abkhazia is a fortress. Georgians stand no chance against it, which is why they attacked South Ossetia instead.

[edit on 9-8-2008 by maloy]

What is the relationhsip with it all starting on the day of the Olympics. It is being used for cover, and if so by which side?

This is not adding up, why would the Georgia military start something they know they will lose. No head of state wants to touch interfering with the peaceful atmosphere of the olympics, so why choose this time.

I am no expert but it seem sto me as if the only country to gain anything is that of Russia. They lose nothing, gain much and it wasnt their fault, as they are only defending Russians?

None of this makes sense, can anyone enlighten me on the reasons for this happening on this momentous ocasion?

Why now? What is the possible gain for Georgia vs. the possible gain for Russia.

[edit on 9-8-2008 by Standingby]

Originally posted by maloy
I think Georgians are mostly on the defensive there in the Kodori Gorge. Due to absense of armor in the gorge region, expect mostly artillery attacks and infantry engagement.

According to RussiaToday, Abkhazia forces have entered Kodori Gorge. That was at 17:00 (GMT)

OPEN YOUR EYES!Saakashvilee is murder!!It is not war!It is GENOCIDE peopel of south osetia!!

Originally posted by Standingby
What is the relationhsip with it all starting on the day of the Olympics. It is being used for cover, and if so by which side?

By Georgia. Georgia attacked Tskhinvalli by artillery on the night before the start of the games, and stormed the city during the open ceremony day.

In addition to this Georgia announced ceasefire only 12 hours prior to start. This was clearly to mislead South Ossetia and Russians.

Originally posted by Standingby
This is not adding up, why would the Georgia military start something they know they will lose.

They were betting Russia would not intervene. Without Russia's help South Ossetia would not have held out long. Alternatively they were betting U.S. would step in for them - but I doubt it as this is highly unrealistic.

Originally posted by Standingby
No head of state wants to touch interfering with the peaceful atmosphere of the olympics, so why choose this time.

You must not know Saakashvilli - President of Georgia.

Originally posted by Standingby
I am no expert but it seem sto me as if the only country to gain anything is that of Russia.

Georgia wanted to gain South Ossetia, untill their expectations of Russian non-involvement fell through.

Originally posted by Standingby
They lose nothing, gain much and it wasnt their fault, as they are only defending Russians?

They gain nothing. Thousands of S. Ossetians with Russian citizenship are dead. Russian soldiers are dead. South Ossetia will remain a de-facto breakaway republic and status quo will be restored.

Originally posted by Standingby
None of this makes sense, can anyone enlighten me on the reasons for this happening on this momentous ocasion?

Read the first page of the thread.

Originally posted by infinite
According to RussiaToday, Abkhazia forces have entered Kodori Gorge. That was at 17:00 (GMT)

Honestly I don't see what Abkhazian forces need this for, if only to pound the Georgians for a bit. It is not like Abkhazian militia is going to advance into Georgian territory. Nor does it make sence for them to cross the Kodori Gorge and advance towards S. Ossetia, since Russian troops are already cleaning up there.

I guess they just want a piece of the actions. Kodori was long disputed, and there were non stop skirmishes there for the last 10 years. But I think Georgians are entrenched there pretty well. Expect to see lots of artillery fire from Abkhazia.