SuperDepression Now Inevitable : ~2010? How to Prepare.

i think the U.S.A would first just default on it's obligations and write some IOU's and back up the IOU's with military might.

other than that i see the standard of living going down for the vast majority of people on the planet, by increasing cost of living expenses, lowering real wages, and also falling asset values (home's, stock's, etc)

people and financial analysts can argue to their heads are blue, on deflation vs. inflation (and their multiple defintions some use for each) but i think they are missing the point.

couple other things it is interesting to note, that most country's can avoid deflations by creating more credit and also fiat currency as a last resort, however in the EU , the ECB is responsible for printing euro's for a large basket of country's , so what may be good for one country, will probably be bad for another, so i see major dislocations and potential for meltdowns in the next year or two over there as well since individual country's to do not have individual federal reserve's to cater to their own needs.

lastly all this talk about M3 at 17% and this and that is IMO hog wash, The flimsy accounting principles allow banks to mark alot of crap assets at mark to model (level III) where by if they were marked to reality the values of some of these credit creation would be much much lower and be reflected in M3, actual fiat dollar creation has been quite contained compared with other periods in U.S history, and as long as other country's peg their currency's to us, we will not have a chance of turning into a Weimar republic.

Inflationary price pressures sure, but no weimar. As asia allow their currency's to appreciate, their imports will become more expensive (less and less financing our ridiculous consumption) and lots of american's who depend on credit will need to live within their means and be in for a rude awakening.

Also consumer price inflation is running much higer than reported, in reality one could go back a few years and subtract several percentage points from the yearly GDP and we would have been in a recession for the better part of this decade. Tough to swallow? sure but it's true. The #1 reason these numbers are politicized are so that the average yearly increas in people's pensions which are adjusted for inflation are minimized (reducing gov't obligations/costs). Other country's face political pressure when they come out with higher inflation indices and the solution is often to redesign the way inflation is measured, reweight certain things, or omit them alltogher. On the bright side oil prices may get slashed as soon as limits are placed on speculation and /or as the euro economy faces a slowdown which may in turn lead to cutting EU interest rates and boosting the $.

[edit on 2-6-2008 by cpdaman]

I have always been familiar with how hyperinflation works, but now more recently I am becoming more and more worried, two facts that need some googling possibly, M1 money is no longer tracked and stated inflation in our economic reporting is flawed and much less than actual real inflation, to all of the financial gurus please help me out.

On another note I was watching CNBC this morning and they had some guy on there saying that within 2-4 years or something, they have realistically predicted that gasoline will be averaging 12-15 dollars per gallon and they forecast that the topside price for crude could reach as high as 250 to 300 dollars a barrel easily.

I think this is just the beginning and I do think that a serious economic and social collapse is on the horizon and unfortunately large scale or even world war is materializing right before our eyes.

read my last post, their should be no hyperinflation any time soonm but that doesn't mean your standard of living will not fall continously and be part of the reason a more "big brotherish" gov't is being created.

oil prices are being driven by #1. A weak dollar. dollar loses 25% of value, oil gets "repriced upwards.

2. investment banks who lost their shirts in mortgage mess are borrowing money from the fed's discount window and investing in oil futures to a large deree. GS will probably short the market should they be privvy to any inside info regarding new CFTC regulations.

3. the lack of attractive U.S assets (tock, bonds) leaves oil and food commodity's as a sole asset of interest (gold too) so more and more people are pilling on, trying to hedge themselves against a falling dollar.

4. Total demand for oil has been increasing in the last few years, but at a slower clip than most realize. global demand has been rising at about 2%annually for a couple years, although this year it will probably fall off to about 1.5% or less due to the economic slowdown.

many financial "experts" will line up to tell you speculation is all on in your mind, and they will try to manipulate the oil supply /demand data to make it appear this is a larger part of the situation that it is because they fear

1. an informed public will harass conress to impliment regulation to commodity's trading and their golden investment goose will be "cooked"

2. also it may be the lesser of two evils, given alot of the money invested in commodity's may flee to foreign markets and investment in U.S assets will fall.

[edit on 2-6-2008 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by ybab hsur
reply to post by whiteraven

 

Wow. You do speak the truth, but you twist it in a conspiracy way

The difference between THIS country and nazi germany is that nazi germany had nothing. No economy, no jobs, no food, etc

I dont think any of us alive will ever see the day that America becomes that country.


If you dont like it here, and you wish to continue slandering the place that most of us love so dearly

then why dont you buy a plane ticket on the next trip to Iran and go experience their wonderful way of life.....

Since when is asking a question un American? The last time I checked the very act of asking a question would signify an act of freedom. I would equate freedom with not only being very American but a exercise in and toward the pursuit of happyness.

I believe the Founding Fathers left Europe in order to be free to pursue this very act. They saw this as so very important to the Republic that they ratified it as The First Amendment.

Amendment 1 - Freedom of Religion, Press, Expression. Ratified 12/15/1791. Note

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances

I believe this allows me to ask a question even if many think it to be outlandish.

I will post a link to the Constitution of the United States of America in order for you to read it and then you will be able to defend it.www.usconstitution.net...

Now, I will go back to the topic on hand.

The many parallels between 1924 Germany and present-day United States are cause for concern. Though the U.S. has not yet reached the depths to which Germany descended in that era, few can look at the constant depreciation of the dollar since the early 1970's and fail to be alarmed. It seems contemporary America differs from 1924 Germany only in the duration between cause and effect. While the German experience was compressed over a few short years, the effects of the American inflation have been more drawn out.

It seems that their may be parallels to hyperinflation in Nazi Germany. The move off of the Gold Standard may have been the lynchpin. When Kennedy tried to bring us back on course with Silver certificates he may have seen the issue.www.usagold.com...





[edit on 3-6-2008 by whiteraven]

I agree with your post. The Federal Reserve was the worst possible mistake that the US made. People are going into more debts and there is not enough currency to pay off the interest. The best thing the government can do is to crumble up the federal reserve and make a new one run by the government.

Originally posted by Equinox99
I agree with your post. The Federal Reserve was the worst possible mistake that the US made. People are going into more debts and there is not enough currency to pay off the interest. The best thing the government can do is to crumble up the federal reserve and make a new one run by the government.

I agree with you regarding the Federal Reserve. However I don't know if letting the government run a new central bank is a good idea. When has our government ever run anything efficiently and without waste?

Originally posted by ybab hsur
reply to post by whiteraven

 

then why dont you buy a plane ticket on the next trip to Iran and go experience their wonderful way of life.....

EDIT: sorry for going a bit IT.. but sometimes I find lines like these so frustrating that I have to reply.

Disclaimer: I'm not an Iranian. I'm just someone from W. Europe who is getting tired of all the hate mongering. Look at thyself first.

Look, the government of Iran is maybe not the best one can find, but that can be said of other governments as well.

Iran does have a death sentence, but so do other countries. A shame that some of the religious influences also results in the killing of e.g. gay men.

Contrary too what might be implied on Fox News, Iran is not some poor country full of desert dwelling people and women who are wearing burka. Actually, more women than men go to university in Iran.

It's a large page so don't go to it if you're on dial-up, but I'd say: just take a look at photo's from Teheran:

www.worldisround.com...

I'd say that many cities can learn a thing or two from this modern capital! Let's not forget that Iran/Persia is part of the foundations of modern civilization with a huge cultural heritage.

So IMHO Iran is at least a relatively modern to modern country which just has some bad luck because of it's government and religious influences. This, once again, applies to more countries. (both the bad luck and the religious influences!)

I'd say: look further then the daily news and discover that actually many Iranian people, especially the youth, does not really have anything against the U.S.... as long as they're not attacked using bogus and false reasons that is!

Life and Liberty in Iran, some very interesting statistics:
regimechangeiran.blogspot.com...

"86 percent of the youth say that they do not perform the obligatory daily Islamic prayer."

"Most significantly, 85 percent of the students said that they would support the establishment of a secular and democratic republic. "

And now ask yourself: are these the people you want to bomb? Is this the country you want to "turn into a large sheet of glass", just because they are born/living under a regime they do not support?!?

Why do they want a nuclear weapon you ask?

Simple: if you've got a nuke, you're basically not going to get attacked anymore, see N. Korea. IF there's one country that needs a regime change and needs to receive "democracy and freedom" it's N. Korea! But wait.. they've got nukes..

Oh yes, the Iranian government does say they want to push Israel into the sea.. but is that likely? Iran knows that Israel has nukes and that countries like the U.S. will come to help Israel. Basically Iran would be committing suicide. Now they might be somewhat crazy, but they're not that crazy.

IMHO they're just trying to spread the image of "we're dangerous!" as a posture to prevent them from being attacked.







[edit on 3-6-2008 by mirador]

Well the neocon policies that were put in place by the repub congress, when the repubs controlled congress, along with the many foolish moves by GW and his gang, as well as poor policies by the fed reserve. The housing bubble has certainly put us into a bad situation. Unemployment and inflation are both greatly under counted, and the reality is, that a massive climb in debt is the only thing that has kept the economy going for the last seven years.

Now we are dealing with the end of cheap oil, and the price of gas is not going up because the manipulations of investors, the oil industry simply can no longer keep up with demand. All the increases in oil output have been in lower grade crude which produces less energy. The next several years are going to be tough, but over all, I think that things will get much better. Future energy sources in the form of wind powered electricity and soy bio-fuel, and maybe perhaps someday hydrogen cells will be much more labor intensive to produce, and the money will be spread out far better among the general populace.

The industrial age which has created a massive gap between the rich and the poor is ushering in to a close. It is now possible for a small business to mass manufacture, and market through the world wide web. Technology is getting cheaper, and more and more things that used to cost huge amounts of money to aquire are now becoming much more affordable, which opens up far greater possibilities for smaller based businesses. This all comes from the information age, which I think may lead to a revival of the cottage industry, and a world dominated much more by a middle class than small groups of the extremely rich.

Originally posted by PokeyJoe
Do you guys realize how economics and economies of huge countries like America actually work?

Obviously you don't. Do you realize that our currency was at one time backed by gold and silver? Do you realize that The Federal Reserve System is private banks charging our country interest to print paper money out of thin air? Do you realize that interest is a big part of the national debt?

America is not corrupt

That's given me the best of laugh of the day so far.

It may not appear on the corruption polls yet but from what I know, I'd take a stab at the US being in the top 3 of most corrupt countries in the world and top when it comes to the value of that corruption.

The US government currently can't account for TRILLIONS of dollars.

Oooooh! I wonder where that went... perhaps its down the back of a sofa in the whitehouse... More likely its in the pockets of government officials and big companiy bosses making lots of dosh out of pounding helpless foreign countries.

Originally posted by ldunquist
"Now I have a REAL QUESTION... what would happen if we just canceled some or all of the gov't debt? I mean like, when that white house visa bill comes in with the $80 minimum payment, what if instead of a check, the president wrote a note saying, "G F Yself."

as a joke i should do this with my bills one month

[edit on 6/3/2008 by Frank Black]

Rice,Beans and Ammo....................................


A good friend of mine who survived the great depression has advised me to pick up a extra bag of rice and beans every time I go to the store...He also advises me to stock up on ammunition while I still can,lots of ammo...Very good advice if you ask me. I would advise everyone to have a disaster plan ready. I think that time is running very short.

Yeah, yeah "I think... Well, I think..."
Anyway, the title here was "how to prepare."

So, where's that part?!
I've been watching this thing for at least 20 years. No suprise. So how do we prepare?
And I think some of us have a pretty good idea what's going to happen. It won't be pleasant.
Some people still know how to exist without an ipod or government assistance, or without banking on retirement funds that don't exist even though you paid for them with your blood and sweat.

"Well the neocon policies that were put in place by the repub congress, when the repubs controlled congress, along with the many foolish moves by GW and his gang, as well as poor policies by the fed reserve."

Like the new bankruptcy laws. Much harder to declare bankruptcy now. Basically your choices now are 1.) pay your bills, 2.) don't pay and get your wage garnished, or 3.) don't pay and don't work (or work under the table), don't get your wage garnished, but live a more 'uncertain' life.

There is actually a 4th choice, but that might be the most unpalatable of all for my fellow americans: Don't participate in consumerism. Don't buy new ipods. Live in a small town. grow some of your own food. Live simply. Or better yet, do without your ipod until you can afford to pay cash. If you don't get into debt, you have control of your own destiny. You're not living to put some douchebag's kid like George Bush through Yale.

That is oversimplifying, I know. But probably the best way to prepare.

Ditch the cities. Let them degenerate into something out of Escape from New York. In the post industrial age, we don't need them anymore anyway.

reply to post by ldunquist


The new bankruptcy laws are not that bad honestly.. because many many people are still doing it!

It put in place tighter controls as to how and why people can and cannot declare bankruptcy. It was being exploited.. people racking up outstanding debts then "oh noooo, me cants pay me bills!" .. and the Gov goes oh boo hoo and let's them declare bankruptcy.

Had it not been being exploited, no change would have been made..


And you can't just end consumerism .. tell America ah, you don't need them fancy Ipods and other doohickeys!

Because that IS OUR WAY OF LIFE .. it's actually our standard of living.

So many ignorant individuals will scream bloody murder America is in the crapper, and oh so many poor people and ghettos and America is a third world country! .... Yet even our poor lil inner city kids run around with Air Jordan's, listening to some rapper icon telling the world what it's like to be a gangsta with 22 inch rims and bitches all over, listening to this, you guess right, on Ipod, while simultaneously talking on a new ultra thin phone with more gadgets and buttons and options to make even the cast of Star Trek blush. Of course, because our kids are so talented and can listen talk and walk at the same time, they no doubt are consuming an ultra high calorie bigmac as they wallow in the self pitty of Third World America.

And no doubt the preachers of Third World America are skinny little white boys in suburbia who will preach to us all the tragedies of consumerism, poverty and how we all need to stop buying Ipods to er .. increase our standard of living all the while telling me while sitting in an arm chair, talking over a computer (insert irony) with a sleek flat panel monitor, sipping a mountain dew and eating a twinkie.

So when you self righteous preachers of consumerism chuck your computer out the window, (Third World America already has computers, no need to donate) throw out all your fat high calorie crap you consider food, and move in to some none consuming backwards hill jack town, plant your effin garden and then I might take you seriously. Course, wouldn't know, you won't have a computer.

Least I won't have to listen to some ignorant fat arse American preach hypocrisy at the highest level!

Ditch the cities. Let them degenerate into something out of Escape from New York. In the post industrial age, we don't need them anymore anyway.

Well that's a good idea... oh wait, they are already degenerated. We Americans fear down town areas, urban centers and minorities congregated in large numbers within a small area...

So we ditched the cities, and we built new down towns in fake settings as hyper malls with condos and office buildings. Of course, these are being built in Suburbia, where we can shop at the mall, go to work, sit in a cafe without the unsightly business of real world America and potentially harmful people of other colors..

And you seem transfixed in this idea that consumerism is a byproduct of urbanism, when it is in fact the ever sprawling suburban communities that drive consumerism, and yes even rural towns have WalMarts and piggly wigglies.

I would invite anyone who wants to say America is a Third World country to take a trip to Somalia, Ethiopia, Peru, Congo, Malaysia... go experience a third world nation for your self. Go live without your Ipod, your big screen TV, your gas guzzling car and you big macs, and go plant your tomato garden amongst the REAL third world out there, go live your life without consumerism.

Tell me what it's like to ride a donkey to a factory to survive. Then I might.. might listen to you. Course, I don't much appreciate whining.

@rockpuck

You don't have to be a dick about it. I did not call america a third world country. I said to reject debt-driven consumerism, not consumerism in general. Learn to read. Then work on your people skills.

My comment about ditching the cities was meant to be taken tongue-in-cheek, by the way, but that doesn't come out so much in text, so I'll let you slide on that one.

Here is where we are going to run into a problem FOR SURE:

In the early 1980s, the Greenspan Commission studies the baby boom bubble and the effect on Social Security. Among their recommendations was to increase withholding from paychecks by an additional 1 percent. This would create a surplus so that when the boomers started to retire, the money would be there.

Unfortunately, that money (the surplus) was "borrowed" and used to offset some of the huge deficits created by the Reagan tax cuts. This was really deficit spending as well, but the Reagan Administration had a rule passed that money "borrowed" from Social Security could not be considered part of the official budget defecit.

But it was still borrowed, and over time it added up to several trillion dollars. And unlike other components of the national debt, the "principal" on this is going to have to be paid as the boomers retire. The only fair way to do this is that Social Security should get the money from the General Fund -- after all, the money was borrowed by the general fund. That cannot possibly be done without rather significant tax increases in coming years.

The rich are trying to suggest that the money should come from an increase in the Social Security withholding tax. If they did this, they would have in effect looted the Social Security retirement money of the working class over the last 25 years or so. But the middle class are pretty stupid in this country and it wouldn't surprise me if the rich pull it off.

But, yeah, we have some pretty serious economic issues on the horizon. Nobody seems to know what's going to happen.

Originally posted by Frank Black

Originally posted by PokeyJoe
Do you guys realize how economics and economies of huge countries like America actually work?

Obviously you don't. Do you realize that our currency was at one time backed by gold and silver? Do you realize that The Federal Reserve System is private banks charging our country interest to print paper money out of thin air? Do you realize that interest is a big part of the national debt?

What does any of that have to do with what I was talking about?

The gold standard has been gone a long time now, and we have been through many recessions and recoveries since then. When people dont have any idea what economics is really about they always spout off the gold standard, and how corrupt the Fed is.

Its funny when people scream its a recession when in fact it is NOT a recession.

A recession is two consequetive quarters with NO growth, go look at the market indices, there is growth, no recession there.

Anyway all this talk of recession is "manufactured" like the rest by events and propaganda. Turn off the TV and trade on facts.

I see bargains!.

Also, learn to haggle, I don't usually pay full price on items I want. No harm is done by walking away. Always ask or you never get

reply to post by dizziedame


dizziedame & mrwupy

well I'm 37 (and Albertan - that's in Canada for those that don't know) and just wanted to say thanks very much for your insight - always eager to learn from folks that are older & wiser to the know-how's of how-to-know...looking forward to more of what you have to say