SuperDepression Now Inevitable : ~2010? How to Prepare.

www.shadowstats.com...

The SuperDepression has become a mathematical certainty, based upon a excellent research paper by John Williams of ShadowStats. In his report he has shown that at the current level of debt to GDP ratio if the US Government were to seize 100% of the GDP (aka your paycheques and the paycheques of the companies your work for) -they would still remain completely unable to meet their currently ballooning financial obligations.

- That this depression will be hyperinflationary (aka Weimer Republic Type HyperInflation)

"As to the fate of the developing U.S. great depression, it will encompass the fire of a hyperinflation, instead of the ice of deflation seen in the major U.S. depressions prior to World War II. What promises hyperinflation this time is the lack monetary discipline formerly imposed on the system by the gold standard, and a Federal Reserve dedicated to preventing a collapse in the money supply and the implosion of the still, extremely over-leveraged domestic financial system."


- That based on historical measures, the incumbent party will loose power

"In every presidential race since 1908, in which consistent, real (inflation-adjusted) annual disposable income growth was above 3.3%, the incumbent party holding the White House won every time. When income growth was below 3.3%, the incumbent party lost every time. Again, with redefinitions to the national income accounts in the last two decades, a consistent measure of disposable income as reported by the government has disappeared. Yet, even with official reporting, the current annual growth in real disposable income is at 2.2%, well below the traditional 3.3% limit."

- That 11 successive adminstrations have pushed the government liability to its absolute maximum (aka cannot stop spending.)

"Where Franklin Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard and its financial discipline for the debt standard, eleven successive administrations have pushed the debt standard to the limits of its viability, as seen now in the ongoing threat of possible systemic collapse. The effect of these policies has been a slow-motion destruction of the U.S. dollar's purchasing power, as seen in the accompanying table, since the gold standard was abandoned in 1933."

- That according to GAAP based financial statements the real debt load of the US Government is $62.6 Trillion with a $4.0 Trillion deficit for 2007.

"As discussed in the next section, the limits to the unlimited abuse of the debt standard are particularly evident in the GAAP-based financial statements of the U.S. government, which show the actual federal deficit at $4.0-plus trillion for 2007, alone, with total federal obligations standing at $62.6 trillion. With no ability to honor these obligations, the government effectively is bankrupt."

The paper continues:

"Again, the current circumstance will evolve into a hyperinflationary depression, then great depression. Although such is not likely much before 2010, or after 2018, that financial end game for the current markets will tend to come sooner rather than later and will break with surprising speed when it hits. As discussed later, this likely will not be a deflationary environment as seen during the Great Depression."

What to do, stockpile in the event your money cannot buy anything, and find a place where you can withstand the roving madness that will envelope the cities as this will eventually hit. This paper recommends that those who have money quietly transfer their wealth to a currency that is still gold-backed (aka the Swiss Franc.)

www.shadowstats.com...

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve has already committed itself to this scenario with its policy of protecting the system -

Correct me if I am wrong but was not hyperinflation the culprit that helped the rise of Adolf Hitler?

This merits research. Thank you for the post.

To be practical.

I live in a 500sq ft apartment. I rent, can't afford to buy.

I make barely enough to pay my bills. Since I work for my state's government, I'm not too concerned about lay-offs; on the other hand, it's not likely that I'll be getting a big fat raise anytime soon.

In short, I don't make enough to be able to afford to "stock up", I wouldn't have any place to store my stocked items if I could buy them, and I don't make enough to be able to move some place with enough room to store a stockpile in anything like the expected time left to make such a move.

And supposing I did manage to make a "move away from the coming madness"; How would I support myself until the madness strikes?


There are far more people like me out there than there are those able to fend for themselves "when the balloon goes up".

These are totally not good times for us. This is happening all around the world, a lot of people are going to starve. There is nothing that other countries could do to help each others out because they have their own people to feed. Even in Finland food price went up by lots of percents just in few weeks.

When USA is economically weak, it is also militarily weak in some ways. I believe this is a chance for a new world war begin, a one-in-a-century chance for Russia and other countries to take off the lead of the U.S, and knowing that Russia likes to break the rules of peace and is very disordered country anyways, I don't think it would like to miss its chance to attempt to get a new domination. Also, I believe they already, along with some other countries, have plans against the USA, and it is highly possible that they will succeed seeing how the current situation of the world is. Be prepared for a chaos.

I'd love to get all freaked out about your dire warning, but after living 50 years on this planet I'm pretty much dired out.

Let it all go to hell and implode. I haven't seen that yet. I've been warned about it since grade school and I've lived in fear of it. It just hasn't happened.

My 401K is still going up.

I'm seriously thinking about buying a $200.00 graphics card for my computer. (That is totally nuts!)

Prices are rising, thats for sure. I just don't see it as a threat.

Fear is how they control you, and fear is being instilled in each and every person who is reading this post.

You will survive.

Or I will anyway.

If you don't I'll say a prayer as I walk by your corpse. Not that you will appreciate it or it will matter.

There is a reason fear is being instilled in the people of the world right now.

I just haven't figured out what it is. I'm sure it's political, just not the why or how of what they want us to fall in line to.

When I get more insight, I'll be back.

Love and light,

reply to post by mrwupy

mrwupy I am 11 years your senior and can totally understand being "all dired out".

In his first inaugural address Franklin D. Roosevelt said, " We have nothing to fear but fear itself". I believe this to be true as fear is one of the strongest motivators I've encountered.

We seem to be in the grips of a terror attack that effects the very soul of our people. It is an attack on our minds and sanity. It's an old game. Only the game pieces have changed.

I refuse to fall victim to fear of what might happen. I have prepared but continue to enjoy life and loose no sleep over what could be. When I attain a goal I set another.

We've been on the brink of destruction since I can remember. I expect it will continue this way for many years to come. It's nothing new....just more information available to the masses of people.

Originally posted by whiteraven
Correct me if I am wrong but was not hyperinflation the culprit that helped the rise of Adolf Hitler?
.

in a word YES

that is a good part of what led to hitler gaining power. he promised to get things going, and he delivered. there were other things as well but that was a major factor. he instituteid national building projects includeing the autobahn, and got an automobile just about anyone could afford (the beetle), at that time cars were only for the very rich. he even istituted a "car" stamp program which let people pay for said car in installments before receiveing it. that most of these cars were never deliverd due to an increas in millitary equipment building is a moot point.

keep in mind that roosivelt also had a national building project that started to pull the us out of their (minor in comparison) depression.

perhaps it is time to start some national projects to put people to work, say drilling for all that untapped oil in north america, which if propperly managed would also have the benifit of lowereing the price of oil. don't forgett we also need more refining capability as that hasn't been improved since the phony gas shortage in the 70's.

reply to post by whiteraven


Wow. You do speak the truth, but you twist it in a conspiracy way

The difference between THIS country and nazi germany is that nazi germany had nothing. No economy, no jobs, no food, etc

I dont think any of us alive will ever see the day that America becomes that country.

America is not rome
America is not Nazi Germany
America is not corrupt
America is the greatest country on earth, and despite some bad things, and bad people, there are still wonderful things and wonderful people that far outweigh the bad

If you dont like it here, and you wish to continue slandering the place that most of us love so dearly

then why dont you buy a plane ticket on the next trip to Iran and go experience their wonderful way of life.....

i think maybe its just prepping us for the whole project blue beam thing. that everyone will be so down and out that when they project the holograms of "jesus and pals" "we" will think its a miracle to save us etc blah blah

America is not corrupt

ARE YOU KIDDING?

America is the greatest country on earth, and despite some bad things, and bad people, there are still wonderful things and wonderful people that far outweigh the bad

It was the best country on earth. And yes, it could become it again, if your ``wonderful people`` take over the bad people who are in control now, and have been for the last 20 years or so. The Clintons, the Bushes, McCain, the globalists, those people are using America to destroy the world. But the problem is not only in the US, it's in Canada, Europe, Australia, South Korea, Japan.

We're all infected by this scum, this VIRUS plagging the human race. Unfortunately, the culture have made a lot of people believe that power, celebrity and money were their god. And because of that, they become corrupt and evil without realizing it.

ybab hsur, I have nothing against you, but wake up, america is not what it was 20 years ago. Evil is now everywhere. The higher you go, the more corrupt it is. CPS, the ARMY, the government, the police, universities.

Evil is taking roots in america and the western world and soon it will be another great battle between good and evil.

The vast majority of posts here each make a point. With the sum total being 'we have no idea what's gonna happen. It kinda reminds me of how analysts have been warning that Las Vegas is dramatically over-building. That warning first came 40 years ago and has been reiterated EVERY YEAR since. Yet each new resort manages to keep it's rooms full (well, full enough). Heck, I look at Vegas EVERY year and think, "No, THIS time we've really done it. The pooch is Howling. We've gone too far." And EVERY year I'm proved wrong.

I find it funny how people now harken back saying, "America isn't what it was 20 years ago...". ...20 years ago? ...1988? Our government was run by corrupt, war mongering, bastards back then too... And when did Ronald Reagan become this great president? Once enough time passed that people forgot that he sucked too? All he did was crush the poor and raise the standard of living with another credit bubble and unprecedented military spending. I remember hating that man his second term (everyone, incl. me, seemed to love him upon his initial election - very well orchestrated - how could ANyone have lost to Carter). EVEN THEN, in '88, the Bush bull poopoo prevailed. George Sr. took office without being elected, just like his son did. I have yet to see an election that I was truely confident in... correction, I believed clinton - ironically

Now I have a REAL QUESTION... what would happen if we just canceled some or all of the gov't debt? I mean like, when that white house visa bill comes in with the $80 minimum payment, what if instead of a check, the president wrote a note saying, "G F Yself." or maybe just to the smaller ones, the big important ones we keep paying on - say maybe the top 5-30%? Please don't come with an answer attitude akin to the word of god. We don't know. I'm just lookin for some intelligent, INFORMED discussion of what the relevant factors are, etc...

Do you guys realize how economics and economies of huge countries like America actually work?

It works cyclically. There are large periods of boom, then the balloon gets too large, and has to crash. It bottoms out, and then starts the ascent back up. This is the way it has been since America started. Do we not remember the recessions we had during the Clinton years, followed by a huge boom in the economy? The economy can only sustain itself at a high level for so long, before it corrects itself, which is happening now. Its probably going to get worse while Bush is still in office, then start it ascent again when Obama comes in (I cant see any way in the world McCain wins).

Also, I believe that the military will be the last thing to weaken if we do go into a depression. There is no chance in hell that Russia or anyone else "takes the throne" so to speak. Once Bush is out, and assuming we dont attack Iran before that, I think that Obama will pull us into a more isolated stance, and work on fixing whats wrong with us......thats the way I look at it anyways.

reply to post by verbal kint


I think a lot of the debt that we have will never ever come close to being paid, so in a way Bush and whomever else is in office does give the G F yourself. This country has always operated on a deficit....thats the way it works. Clinton may have balanced the gov't budget, but that doesnt mean that the trillion dollar plus debt was balanced. Im only 27, but as long as I can remember its been like this. When was the last time we had a president that didnt suck? Hell, Clinton is remembered as a really good one, and his ass got IMPEACHED!

Its not like our debtors have guys leave nasty messages on Bush's voicemail.

Originally posted by generik

Originally posted by whiteraven
Correct me if I am wrong but was not hyperinflation the culprit that helped the rise of Adolf Hitler?
.

in a word YES

perhaps it is time to start some national projects to put people to work, say drilling for all that untapped oil in north america,

Unfortunately they have a national work force project in mind. It's called FEMA Camps. Executive Order 11000 allows the govt. to "mobilize civilians into work brigades" under govt. supervision. No mention of job benefits...

Even England is headed in this direction (except they will not bother with a "Martial Law" excuse). A recent post in ATS in another forum:

A future [British] Conservative government will bring in "boot camps" for unemployed young people aged between 18 and 21 who refuse to take a job...

Originally posted by ybab hsur
America is not corrupt

id like to second the person who said: are you kidding?
america is undeniably corrupt. maybe not entirely, but corruption DOES exist in our government, perhaps rampantly.

Originally posted by ybab hsur
If you dont like it here, and you wish to continue slandering the place that most of us love so dearly

then why dont you buy a plane ticket on the next trip to Iran and go experience their wonderful way of life.....

really, i just wanted to respond to this. im so sick of hearing this, for two reasons. one, its not like iran or countries like it are the only alternatives to the system we have here in america. the world is not nearly so bi-polar. if one really is fed up with america and the problems its facing, there are plenty of other places they could conceivably go that offer viable alternatives. comments like this only reflect the very ignorant view that the world is comprised of america on one side and the rest on the other. dualistic thinking of this nature is flawed at best.

second of all, and i know im going to take a lot of heat for this one, i would absolutely love to take you up on your offer. i have a lot of issues with this country, political, social, economic, etc, and i have come to the conclusion that maybe this place isnt a good fit for me personally. i want out. i want to leave. i would love nothing more than to leave this country to the people who love it and find a place where my views of how life should be are more accepted. but i cant. even if i could afford a plane ticket to ANYWHERE in the current economic situation, i cant afford the ridiculous amount of money they want for a passport. even if i could afford that, name me one country out there that would take me in. emmigration isnt an easy thing to accomplish. you cant just pick up and move to another country. immigration laws in many countries are harsher than ours, many specifically so for americans looking to immigrate there.
basically im saying this: if youre going to insist that everyone who doesnt absolutely love and adore everything little thing this country does should leave, why dont you start forking over the cash needed to do so? i, for one, would love to stop being a pain in your patriotic ass and find a place i dont find to be so horribly backwards.

Originally posted by Vitchilo

We're all infected by this scum, this VIRUS plagging the human race. Unfortunately, the culture have made a lot of people believe that power, celebrity and money were their god. And because of that, they become corrupt and evil without realizing it.

I have been thinking this for some time now. All those TV viewers that are making those that wield power and money out to be living Gods is infecting them with evil.

Evil is taking roots in america and the western world and soon it will be another great battle between good and evil.

The stage is being set, the actors have been practicing there lines and all that is left is for the good side to uprise and take what has become an evil empire and crush it.

Once again we are being tested.

"Now I have a REAL QUESTION... what would happen if we just canceled some or all of the gov't debt? I mean like, when that white house visa bill comes in with the $80 minimum payment, what if instead of a check, the president wrote a note saying, "G F Yself." or maybe just to the smaller ones, the big important ones we keep paying on - say maybe the top 5-30%? Please don't come with an answer attitude akin to the word of god. We don't know. I'm just lookin for some intelligent, INFORMED discussion of what the relevant factors are, etc..."

Yeah, let's talk about this. My guess is we'd see an immediate reduction in certain government services like SSN and Medicaid.

Alot of the debt probably takes the form of T-bills or whatever they're called, which is where you park your money if you want a 'safe' inflation linked return, so I would guess those T-bills held in foreign places like China would be declared null and void. What would happen then? Some sort of economic retaliation from China, most likely in the form of trade embargoes, because they couldn't slap a real oil embargo on us, both because of our Navy and because we have a lot of oil in the ground here still. So we see things like Computer Fabs being 'nationalized', no more ipods, car components, etc. maybe China establishes a broader partnership with Central and South America. BUt that only hurts for awhile until we set up fabs at home again.

I'm just guessing here. What else? China takes the gloves off with Taiwan for real. Anything else?

reply to post by gulfstreamsalt


*sigh....*

I swore I wouldn't post again on ATS today, but I am on a new computer/new server so it should be fine..... here goes my reply for the second time today (hopefully this one won't be deleted!)

I made a thread a while back on the US Misery Report, which was an "actual" calculation of inflation + unemployment.. or in other words, the things that make consumers miserable! The author was from this site, Shadow Stats, however, the Misery report it's self did not originate from that site, but rather, has been in use for quite a while. It essentially uses the "old" way of caluculating inflation and unemployment. For example, the US government does not count people who are unemployed, not recieving benefits and are still looking for jobs. OK. That makes sense, because that is every single unemployed middle class American. 4.9 million at the Gov's last "count". Inflation was at 3.5% according to the Gov, even though gas alone has gone up 30% in two months, eggs up 50% and you can't even buy rice in bulk anymore. But gas, food, and energy is not included in the Gov's inflation calculation.

That makes sense. The things I live off of, is gas, for me car, beer and eggs for the morning after my beer. I don't kid when I say most of my money goes to that! Oh and my energy bill. Which has also gone up 20% this year so far.

The Gov doesn't count ANY of that into Inflation. So, sorry college kids my age, but while you plow through Monster.com looking for a job paying more then poverty, and your driving to get beer to get drunk so you can wash those blues away and hopefully improve your concentration for test taking (insert wink wink) and eating romen noodles (which price has gone up over a dollar.. omg, I lived off that crap for a year!) The Gov will count absolutely NONE of that towards inflation or unemployment.

To the Government, you don't even exist! Unworthy to be calculated, how sad. Except when they want to take 20% of your paycheck to pay for all that pathetic trash out there sucking up Gov handed out benefits while you struggle to survive in none-existence.

But I am also a fair man, I don't believe in over sensualization of a story... err.. just ignore everything above.. anyways, lets look at this way all of you "zomg America is ruining the world!" folks.

I am 21 years of age. Right now I defy the odds and I do quite well for my self. However... a normal business cycle says that once in a 20 year period there must be an economic disruption. That is to say, a major disruption. And that is just a minimum .. we have never in our history (no country) gone 20 years of pure economic boom.

This means in my life, at 21, though I didn't know it, nor did I give a damn, I have experienced TWO recessions in my short stay on Planet Earth. The biggest of which was in the mid to late 80's. Like I said, it didn't bother me, but from what I hear it wasn't exactly a rose garden. In 2001 I saw the towers get hit while in 9th grade.. I believe it was a English class.. I saw a recession instantaneously. Didn't bother me..

If the last recession was in 2001 .. and the article says OMG economic problems in 2010 or 2018 ... I have to say, what a weak arse prediction! There HAS to be some kind of economic disruption in the time period.

In the course of my life, assuming I will live to the ripe ol' age of 150 (they keep saying we will live longer right?) or more realistically 83 years of age.. I will experience..

A 100% chance of an economic recession. But alas, I have lived through two! .. and I will live through at least one every 20 years for the rest of my life. Perhaps every 10, who knows. only the globalist I suppose.

I will have an 80% chance of experience a large scale Depression. Typically in a business cycle every 100 years of business a capitalist society will experience one major depression. The last one was in 1929 .. which means 2039 and on ward we are in over due range for an economic depression. I will only be in my 50's, so I will write a post-it to my self to ensure nest egg is not confined to bank accounts....

In my life time I will have a 60% chance of experiencing a civil war and or revolution. Typically every 200 years or less, a country experiences economic and civil upheaval. Sadly, this puts it right smack on target for the same time frame of the next expected economic depression! .. economic times tend to make rational people act in otherwise irrational ways!

In my life time I will have a 80% chance of seeing a massive, world wide war of amazing destruction. Every 10 years the world super powers of the world must engage in at least TWO conflicts of some kind, else economic upheaval is in store. The ONLY decade in which the US Army did not engage in any major theater was in the 1980's, and the result ironically.... a decade of economic volatility. Granted, we spent the USSR into self destruction, the war of spies and proxies never really "took off" in the 80's in the form of major conflicts..

The chances of seeing US operations in a theater of war is 100%.

Economic depressions, recessions, and economic stagnation are as sure as death and taxes.

To those who say America is the root of all evil.

No, man is the root of all evil, and evil actions are the heart of all evil .. ah, it's nothing but a redundant circle of vile evilness.. America it's self did not give rise to Capitalism. And America it's self did not create the corporations that operate in a world of Anarchy not leveled by any one Country..

Corporations are entities unto themselves, the government can restrict them, sometimes, tax them.. sometimes.. and dismantle them if desperately needed. The problem with Capitalism is that EVERY country who welcomes this Trojan Horse into their lands, will soon be controlled by them.

A Country with no corporations is one thing.. it operates in it's own way. They may not have the best standards of living, but historically they are happier populations (go figure) ... however, once corporations embed themselves into the fabric of society and government, to remove it one must destroy themselves. Once the horse is let into the Country, and everyone gets drunk with financial stupidity, the corporation will let loose it's corruption and the entire Country will fall in a short while. All while thinking they had a victory because of brief prosperity.. All democracies will end in Tyranny, it is the natural order of Humanity, corporations will be an enabler.

Globalist are just that.. GLOBAList.. they have no allegiance.. if the world's borders fall down they would be all the happier. Countries impede on their way of operation, without restrictions wealth can be generated and consolidated within the oligarchy of the capitalist world..

And finally, the American government it's self is not inheritantly corrupt, instead, Humanity by nature is corrupt, and every Democracy is corrupt in it's own way. The only way to prevent corruption, is to ensure a system where absolute corruption already reigns!

In closing...

Yes. By 2018 we will experience a recession. And I would hazard a very strong guess that by 2018 we will have experienced a recession, another bubble, and another recession. Hell by 2018 we could be coming out of, or going into our second or third recession.

The likelihood of a depression is possible, it's not probable, but possible. Would I bet on it.. and start storing caned beans and beer (that's all I would put in my bunker.. beans and beer baby, God have mercy on whos ever in there with me..) and buying up every small arms my trigger happy fingers can grasp .. No.

Because a Recession .. or even a Depression does not mean armed conflict. It means economic depression. Sure, society is more receptacle to drastic change during these times, but it doesn't happen that often at all.

My advice to everyone is enjoy the beer while the Hopps prices are still relatively low (they predict a 50% price increase by 2009) and just live life to the best of your ability while you can. Packing away cans and jars in a secret hidey-hole is no way to live, imo.

reply to post by mrwupy


I believe you are right about fear my friend, but I believe the reason they create fear is to control the populace. If you make it seem there is an outside threat (terrorism), sheeple will do almost anything to protect the status quo out of fear. It's certainly a plausible theory.
Anyway, I just wanted to let you know that I would like to see something fantastic myself. Started with "Duck & Cover" films in school, and it's been an ongoing theme ever since. I'm to the point where I want to see a planet whizz by the earth and tilt it sideways. What a ride that would be! If we live, we live, if wew die, we die, but I'm not going to waste too much time crying about either one. I'll be occupied with enjoying life now.

I think we are headed to free labor camps in this country.

I think the elite has always had a plan like this in order to get free labor and this way they can control resources.

Hitler started out with free labor camps and this is why he got alot of backing.

The people who backed Hitler didn't know he would go nuts and turn the free labor camps into extermination camps. He then had to be destroyed.

I think it will start the same in this country.

The government will say they will take care of everything for you if you work in these camps to help pay off foreign debt.

So people will be working in these camps for a company in say China. This will be free labor in order to pay off debt owed to the Chinese.

The rich in this country will pay more taxes as long as the government controls the finances and resources of the poor in order to pay off the debt and "save the planet."