An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

My husband and I have both been feeling very dizzy for the last few days. This is very unusual for both of us and I'm thinking it might be related to the swarm of earthquakes in Arkansas - in the last four days there have been 30 with a magnitude of 2.5 or greater. Scary.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I feel the need to post this. First I'll link to a post I just made a few minutes ago on Westcoast's Something Stirring at Mount Saint Helens thread, where I note some details of an epileptic episode I had on Sunday and how it might relate to the NZ quake. (Note that I say "might".)

Somewhere way back in this long thread -- maybe two years ago I guess -- I believe I mentioned feelings I had not long before the 2004 Asian quake/tsunami disaster.

Now onto the main subject. Those of you who've read this thread will know that I don't make a lot of predictions. You'll also know that I'm rather tough in my standards of what counts as a "hit" and what doesn't for predictions I make. In spite of that my "hit rate" (lousy term) would be around 60% I guess. The sample of events is too small for useful analysis yet though. But I only predict when I'm pretty sure.

In the short post below the one I've linked to I've mentioned that

it might be worth watching the near off-coast regions of the PNW, especially west of Eureka, Portland and also around Vancouver Island (southern part). Could be some quake activity there very shortly.

I'd now like to make this more specific. I feel I need to.

West of Eureka --meaning offshore -- is a likely region for a quake. However, they get plenty of them there, as the USGS historical siesmicity maps for that location will tell you. In my mind they don't become significant enough for prediction purposes until they're at least mag 4. I'd say in this case that we could be looking at over a mag 5.

However, I mentioned two other areas, namely Portland and Vancouver Island. To explain, Portland is darned near midway between Eureka and the southern part of Van island. But more significantly, Portland practically sits on what scientists have determined is the 40 km depth line for the Juan de Fuca plate where it's subducting under the Nth American plate. So Portland could have problems if/when that plate moves in a major way.

Van island has had big quakes before but they are rare. My feeling is that the southern end of the island and also the region into and around Pt Angeles, across into Seattle and down to Tacoma are all around equally likely for a stronger quake. I do not see anything significant happening which is epicentred further north, even though hoisgtorically that is quite possible. I just don't see that in this case.

If a quake comes in any of the above-mentioned regions it has to be a mag 4 or bigger to be of any significance to what I'm posting now. However I strongly feel that we are looking at bigger than a mag 5 event. I hate to say it but that's what I feel is the situation now.

The time window for this prediction is 3 days (72 hours) from the time of this posting, which I shall leave un-edited even if there are typos etc.

The time as I post is 13:13 Local time (CET) (12:13 UTC), Feb 22, 2011.

Mike

Just a note, as I do not wish to edit the above post for reasons of preserving its credibility as "untampered with".

Where I have

even though hoisgtorically that is quite possible

it should read:

even though historically that is quite possible

Most readers would have worked this out easily enough, but because not everyone who reads this has English as a first language, some may be looking to dictionaries to work out what "hoisgtorically" means. It's just a typing mistake, nothing more.

Mike

Thanks JustMike for posting your prediction despite potential backlash you could get. I'm in the Seattle area & I know that I've been feeling uneasy about the area for a few days now. My two cats have been acting wack-a-doodle the last 24 hours...so I was already on alert. I also saw what could have been those unusual earthquake rainbows in the sky - but I was driving & turning away from them & didn't want to get into an accident trying to get a better look.

We do have a winter storm coming into the area & so that weird feeling I get when the barometer starts dropping is pretty strong...so here's hoping that's all I'm *feeling* right now.

Again, thanks. I'll keep a watch on things, keep emergency supplies nearby, & hope for an incredibly boring 72 hours.

reply to post by onthelookout

Hi onthelookout and thanks for your response. Frankly I'm not worried about any backlash. I'm more concerned about saying what I think and letting others take it as they will. I'm certainly not out to scare people so I hope it won't be taken that way by anyone. In fact, several times in this long thread over the past 2 1/2 years or so, I've spoken out against predictions (made elsewhere and reported here) that I felt were without basis and/or scaremongering. Claims of mag-10 quakes with tsunamis sweeping China and that sort of thing.

Living where you do there is no harm in being informed about what is possible in the region, while keeping a balance between that knowledge and not being overly concerned by predictions -- unless the signs are so obvious that all and sundry would be concerned. You're taking this the right way: staying aware, but not panicking. Right now, what I've posted is just my own take and has no more validity than that.

Also, as I am well aware that a correct prediction in this case just possibly could mean at least some upset and distress for some people, I'll take no joy from being right if it turns out that way. There've been a couple of other occasions in this thread where I've been wrong and have expressed my relief that I was. (I've been wrong more than a couple of times, though. Just to make that clear. I just mean expressing relief at the fact.)

It's an endless dilemma, though. We need to find or at least advance some ways to do this (predicting) but while we've already had some successes, we always have it in our minds that ultimately, the goal is to find ways to reduce human suffering by being able to forewarn in the case of major events. All the rest means nothing if that goal is never achieved.

I think it's achievable. However, we're still a long way from it, and it seems that most people round the world who are working on the same problem are also struggling.

By the way, here's an article from the Seattle times of March 5, 2005, entitled Seafloor earthquakes signal eruption off Vancouver Island. Being in the region you might have noticed it back when it was published, but I thought you might like to see it again (in case you don't have it). It helps to illustrate the complexities of the problem in your part of the world. You've got plates interacting, volcanic activity on land, ditto under the sea... This makes it very hard for even the best in the business to work out what might come up next. So sometimes, our "alternative" methods might be helpful.

We'll see.

I'd be perfectly happy if you and everyone in the PNW has a very boring next few days. If there's an offshore quake off Oregon or squeaking just over the border into offshore Nth Cal off Eureka -- that being one of the three possibilities I see and statistically the most likely in the next three days -- the odds are good that you won't even know about it unless it gets reported or you watch the USGS and similar sites, or you see it posted on here somewhere. That would be a fine outcome if the magnitude stays under a 6. (Bigger ones are rare. There was a mag 5.9 in that region... on Nov 28, 2008 if I recall correctly, but it didn't cause any harm.)


Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Well, I hope you are feeling better. Thought I would jump on here to document how I am feeling tonight too. Actually it started three days ago with some odd pain (pin-point) above my eyebrows. It has gotten worse the past hour...almost like bruises.

Anyways, I think those that follow my threads may have picked up on my anxiety lately, maybe it is becuase of Arkansas, NZ...but it just feels closer to home.

Here is why:

I have said numerous times I am always looking at the big picture. So firt, the deep tremors.

Lately I have noticed a high cocentration of them in Northern California and now a small cluster at the South end of Vancouver Island...which I was expecting. You see, they suspect these tremors preculde a 'slip' event. If there is a large amount of them concentrated on just one point of the subduction zone for a period of time (they are normally spread out) then I would think it would cause a build-up of pressure at the other end. Just my thought process.

Here is a pic of the last month, color coded for time-line:




Check out the quakes for the past two weeks (choose the plot by depth option, it paints a picture)

LINK

So I guess what I am saying is that I am having physical symptoms (ears ringing a lot too) and the maps are showing my something...something. I wouldn't be surprised to see something south of Vancouver Island, in the Sound.

I will be sure to let you know if my dogs start acting wierd.

reply to post by westcoast


The area is right for this old thread, you have to be a bit patient during the first part of the video as it is a bity slow getting to the point I think you may want to understand better. Use this next wave of solar energy to ground the magnetic energy in your body, it works and will help you to unclutter the mind and energize your creativity.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Okay you guys, my little dog just climbed up into my lap shaking (a little bit) and doing that thing where she looks around the room at something that isn't there.

reply to post by westcoast


My headache has increased, chest pain and nausea.
Had ear ache earlier but it has eased.

Zenius asked me to post this here so i will do so

From the Christchurch Earthquake thread

i spoke to my mum today and last year she had a vision, this was after the Sept quake, that there would be a very large earthquake and then part of NZ breaking off. at the time i rubbished the idea saying shed watched to much tv, but now im not so sure, now she could have mis-interpreted the glacier breaking off as part fo the south island breaking off, but on Monday night we both had really bad feelings, my mum had a severe headache which usually happens when she is sensing something big coming whilst she was at work doing some training for her apprentices the pressure in her head released and she knew something bad had happened, later in the day she was told by her business partner that the earthquake had happened. the weird thing is, i now feel the same as i did on Monday night, and my mum has the headache again, i hope to god we are just reacting to what happened yesterday

what ive felt before earthquakes include feeling "bad" i.e like ive done something bad, almost like guilt, also i sometimes get headaches before an earthquake (i did before the haiti quake)

my mum gets a shocking headache either on the front of her brain or low down on the back of her brain/top of her neck, she also sometimes get's visions (she saw the massive sinkhole that appeared in Haiti before it happened) and nausea

we both get restless and find it hard to concentrate on anything before something big happens, be it an earthquake or any other unexpected disaster.

reply to post by Scrambled_Eggs


Thanks Scrambled_Eggs. Keep us posted.

I practically asked everyone I spoke to today about how they've been feeling over the last week. About 90% said they've been feeling 'off', 'sick' or felt 'out of balance/can't focus'. The majority blamed the moon, some the solar flare but none of them mentioned earthquakes, stress or illness as the cause.

Okay, time to do an assessment of the prediction which I posted here on Feb 22 at 12:14 UTC.

Normally I just post either a "hit" statement and details or a "no hit" statement and no details (because if nothing happened then there aren't any). However, this time I'm in a bit of a quandary and so I'll post more detail than usual and let members give opinions.

This will be rather long but there are pictures to help. Hope you can all bear with me and get through this as I think it might be important.

In summary, my prediction was focused on three distinct but connected regions in the PNW of the USA, namely offshore and west of Eureka (Nth Cal), Portland (Oregon), and the southern end of Vancouver Island (Canada) but also down into the nearby region around Seattle (Wash.).

They are distinct in distance but connected in terms of potential seismic activity, because studies of the coastal subduction zone there suggest the Juan de Fuca plate runs under the land region for some miles, with Portland practically sitting above the edge of the 40-km depth zone, just as does Seattle:



(Image from PNSN.org)

That consideration covers two of the areas stated, but the other -- off-shore from Eureka -- is a horse of a slightly different but related color, so to speak. The region I noted is near the southern boundary of the Juan de Fuca plate:



(Image source USGS.)

This region tends to be pretty active, which is one reason why I said I'd not take much note of anything below a mag 4 in this case. I also figured that if anything happened further up the line along the subducted section then it wouldn't be surprising to get movement there as well.

Now we get down to the nitty gritty. First, I must state that according to available data, there were no quakes within the stated range within the specific regions I named. So, if I apply my usual rather tough standard to myself (as my posts in this thread will attest), this was a "no hit". If people want it to be left at that, I have no problem with it.

On the other hand, near Lake Pillsbury (Nth Cal), at 04:49:41 UTC on Feb 23, there was a mag 4.3, and then at 04:50:14 (yes, just 33 seconds later), there was a 4.2:





As a matter of interest these two quakes occurred about 16 1/2 hours after I posted my prediction.

However, here's where it gets really interesting. There were apparently some foreshocks to these events and then a nice run of aftershocks. I think it's easier if I just list them, breaking it into chunks of 5 quakes each for easier reading and counting. Note that the times are local to California and not UTC:

map 1.6 2011/02/22 20:43:01 39.498N 122.943W 11.5 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 2.8 2011/02/22 20:44:27 39.496N 122.948W 11.9 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 2.9 2011/02/22 20:45:51 39.499N 122.951W 11.1 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
MAP 4.3 2011/02/22 20:49:41 39.499N 122.949W 12.8 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
MAP 4.2 2011/02/22 20:50:14 39.494N 122.957W 11.3 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA

map 1.5 2011/02/22 21:04:27 39.499N 122.948W 11.3 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 2.3 2011/02/22 21:17:08 39.504N 122.953W 12.4 11 km ( 7 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 2.7 2011/02/22 22:14:46 39.493N 122.948W 11.1 9 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 1.7 2011/02/23 07:20:35 39.501N 122.954W 12.7 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 1.9 2011/02/23 07:22:16 39.492N 122.954W 12.5 9 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA

map 1.6 2011/02/23 12:54:11 39.496N 122.945W 12.6 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 1.8 2011/02/23 15:34:54 39.502N 122.946W 12.6 10 km ( 7 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 1.6 2011/02/24 03:32:06 39.499N 122.948W 11.5 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 2.0 2011/02/24 07:46:54 39.501N 122.951W 11.5 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA
map 1.4 2011/02/25 03:45:52 39.498N 122.957W 10.0 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Lake Pillsbury, CA

The SOURCE for the above 15 quakes is the SoCal Earthquakes and Data center (which actually covers all Cali quakes). The list is updated regularly so get in soon if you want to check my data.

Because this was not an area I'd noted in the past as especially active I ran a search through NEIC, with the circle centered at 39.50 N and 122.95 W. All the quakes are very, very close and within a fraction of that location. I used a circle with radius of 50 km (about thirty miles) as -- ditto -- they're all so close to that point.

Here are the results:

NEIC: Earthquake Search Results

U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y

E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E



FILE CREATED: Sun Feb 27 21:04:44 2011
Circle Search Earthquakes= 13
Circle Center Point Latitude: 39.500N Longitude: 122.950W
Radius: 50.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: 1973/01/01 to 2011/02/22
Magnitude Range: 4.0 - 10.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

PDE 1973 11 12 033939 39.34 -123.36 18 4.4 MLBRK .D. ....... 39
PDE 1977 11 22 211552.50 39.45 -123.26 5 4.8 MLBRK 8D. ....... 27
PDE 1978 03 26 002704.40 39.19 -123.20 10 4.6 MLBRK 6D. ....... 40
PDE 1982 09 03 185823.80 39.56 -122.56 5 4.0 MLBRK 3F. ....... 34
PDE 1989 08 08 231506.10 39.48 -122.93 11 4.1 MLBRK 4F. ....... 2
PDE 1995 05 17 022913.69 39.81 -122.71 12 4.4 MLBRK 3F. ....... 40
PDE 2000 05 17 223207.66 39.39 -123.07 7 4.5 MwBRK 4FM ....... 15
PDE 2000 08 21 044513.50 39.33 -123.03 12 4.0 MwBRK .FM ....... 19
PDE 2001 02 02 230311.45 39.73 -122.81 11 4.2 MwBRK ... ....... 28
PDE 2001 03 11 101107.43 39.49 -122.95 17 4.1 MwBRK .F. ....... 1
PDE 2006 11 09 083813 39.36 -123.29 7 4.1 MwBRK 4FM ....... 32
PDE 2007 04 18 084222.33 39.47 -123.11 6 4.8 MwBRK 5FM ....... 13
PDE-W 2009 12 22 234043.92 39.78 -123.34 9 4.0 MwBRK 2FM ....... 45

You can confirm this data by going direct to the search page HERE.

According to the NEIC, there have been just 13 mag 4.0 or bigger quakes in that defined area since 1973 and up to 22 Feb this year. That's less than one every two years on average. Only two in the past 38 years or so have been in virtually the same spot as the latest: one was about ten years ago in 2001 and the other way back in 1989. Also, there are no other examples of "twin" mag 4-plus quakes in the list. They're all singular events.

This place had two mag 4-plus quakes within one minute, less than 24 hours after my prediction was posted.

Yeah, so what, you might reasonably ask.

Well, if you extend the 30 and 40-km-depth lines of that subducting plate just a little ways beyond their estimated end points, they pretty well bracket the above region:



(Source image modified by me to add the obviously included details in red.)

So, because this pair of mag-4-plus quakes are quite rare in that spot, I feel that this angle needs looking at. I had mentioned my concerns both with Portland and the Van Island and Seattle regions based on the subducting plate's assumed location. These two mag 4s and what followed are basically just off the end of that assumed line -- a line that is hundreds of miles long.

Is the Juan de Fuca's subducted section slightly longer than thought? Just maybe? Or is this just one of those odd events and it has no connection to subduction at all? It could be, but I'd like your feedback. Thanks for reading.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Wow Mike....great post. I for one, am willing to extend your prediction radius and give you a hit based on the logic applied here and the obvious lack of activity in that area prior to these recent quakes.

What also concerns me is how this correlates to the deep tremors. There has been a HUGE cluster at the Northern end of Calornia lately. It is 'answered' periodlically at the other extreme end (Vancouver)...what I see as an 'exchange' of energy. We have been having SO many micro quakes all over our state lately, especially in unusuall areas up North, Helens is still rumbling away and now these quakes on possible the Southern edge of the subduction...got my neck hairs up.

Thanks for all the great research and pics.

reply to post by westcoast

Thanks for your response. Yes, I've been keeping an eye on the PNSN tremor maps for some time and very often, there seems to be a bunch of epicenters near the southern end of the subducted plate section, followed by a bunch at the other end -- or at least, around southern Van Island and in the surrounding waters.

There has to be a reason for this and sooner or later someone will figure out just what it is.

I also appreciate your assessment vis-a-vis the prediction. If it had been just one lowish mag-four quake and not much else I wouldn't have wondered about it so much, but it's the way it panned out that interests me and makes me think what I applied (in making the prediction) wasn't far out.

I plotted all 15 of the above-noted quakes on Google Earth and they all easily fit well inside 1 square mile. That's not unique by any means but it's still something of note.

Okay it's almost midnight so I have to log off and get some rest before I turn into a pumpkin or something.

Many, many thanks to our other, newer posters. We appreciate your input very much.

Best regards and goodnight all,

Mike

I'm sure it is not related to anything, but last night I had one of the worst destructive nightmares that I have ever had. The ground was shooting tens of feet into the air like blowholes, and I could hear what sounded like thunder, mixed with the screams of people. Absolutely scared the crap out of me, and since I got up this morning, my ears have been ringing, my dog is acting weird, and my balance is completely off. I just caught myself on my own stairwell and just kept from falling down, for the second time today.

I know that I have been a little preoccupied lately with the current EQ swarm in Iceland, but the dream did not look like anything in Iceland at all, and personally, I think they are going to get a new vent opening somewhere around the area of that swarm, kinda like a Hawaiian lava flow. I also just don't get the feeling that this dream was too far away from me here in the upper Midwest.

Throughout the dream, I kept feeling like I was seeing a movie trailer or preview, like this was going to happen soon.

Also, all day yesterday, and now this afternoon, I have been hearing massive amounts of crows, sounding like they are going crazy. I'm at work now (shhh!), so I haven't been able to go take a look like I was able to yesterday. The two flocks I saw Sunday were of pretty large crows (but definitely not raven-sized), were quite large, and seemed to be very chaotic. I tried to take a photo, but it was not really clear. I had never seen such large crow groupings like I did, the larger of the two, which was around 4 pm EST yesterday, had to have at least 50-100 of them. The smaller flock I saw for about 10 minutes, and the larger hung around for about a half hour.

No idea what any of this means, but I thought I would share.

Well, for what it's worth...I just had a nice wave of dizziness. It happened last night too not very long before the arkansas quake....ugh, there it goes again. Hopefully this goes away and isn't related to anything!

Weird day today. Very strong feelings that something is coming, like the calm before the storm. Feels like the pause in between breaths, where everything has been going in for the last week, and we are at that pause before everything starts coming back out.

I'm sorry if this doesn't make any sense, but this hard-to-describe feeling is making me nervous. Looking at eq activity across the USGS site, it seems like the world is having a calm day as well, which is making this feeling for me stronger.

Have a bad feeling about puerto rico in the next couple days,just a hunch,nothing more.

Another pressure headache & nausea is coming on tonight. Hopefully it means nothing.
Think I might go and look at what the sun is doing....

I have only posted here once, maybe 16 months or so ago - but last night & this morning I was feeling dizzy - not the dizzy i'm used to (not that i'm 'used' to it) it was barely noticable, just occasionally i'd feel a bit off like my head was too heavy and felt like falling (I was sitting though) Just thought i'd post - I enjoy reading this thread, so I might start to listen to my body a bit more and see if anything matches up

ooh, ill just add then, that I got ringing in my right ear and hearing dropped out - that happens every few days though (most likely due to headphones as an angsty teenager awhile back ;p) but it's also really windy here atm, so maybe it's got something to do with that?