An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

This might be something:

MAP 4.1 2011/01/23 05:55:28 31.291 -115.614 1.2 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
MAP 4.3 2011/01/23 05:30:01 31.320 -115.534 9.8 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

morning!


i figured id post what i dreamt last night before i forgot it .


in my dream california got hit by 3 different 8.9 mag quakes in three diff parts of cali, southern, central, and northern.

three days later it got hit by a 9.9 quake which did the trick and dislocated the whole state from the main land . ..

caliornia became an island. almost overnight.

it was a very vivid dream to say the least.

reply to post by alysha.angel


Now THAT is scary. Were you in the dream, or was it like watching a movie or newscast? Was it in black/white or color? Was there sound, smells, sensations?

I ask, because when I was younger I went through a brief time period where several dreams came true.

Originally posted by westcoast
reply to post by alysha.angel

 

Now THAT is scary. Were you in the dream, or was it like watching a movie or newscast? Was it in black/white or color? Was there sound, smells, sensations?

I ask, because when I was younger I went through a brief time period where several dreams came true.

i was there in california in the dream when it happened

Originally posted by westcoast
This might be something:

MAP 4.1 2011/01/23 05:55:28 31.291 -115.614 1.2 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
MAP 4.3 2011/01/23 05:30:01 31.320 -115.534 9.8 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

Yes, that is interesting. We can also add the latest one in that region:
MAP 4.2 2011/01/23 06:47:23 32.173 -115.324 0.4 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

(Note: times given are UTC. Local times for these quakes places them late in the evening on Jan 22.)

That makes three mag 4-plus quakes (in the target area I defined on Jan 19) within the space of one hour. However, I believe that not even these three quakes combined would have the same energy release of a single mag 5.0, so I'm not claiming them as a "hit" for my prediction. I admit that they are scientifically interesting, though. My prediction's time window is still "open" until Jan 24 -- as that's the five-day limit I stated -- so we'll see if anything else occurs.

reply to post by Shenon


Somehow I doubt it. Seeing as Gamma rays can be blocked by shielding it seems unlikely that they could penetrate through a few thousand km of rock and magma to reach the core and then bounce off and back up to affect the crust. The energies involved wouldn't be quite at the level of the "Death Star" (as in Star Wars) but even so, I expect they'd be enough to fry us.

Regards,

Mike

reply to post by alysha.angel

That's a pretty scary dream. Thankfully, while a fair chunk of California probably will become an island eventually -- as the Gulf Of Califonia and the Baja Peninsula indicate the way things are going there -- the process should be rather slow and ought to take some millions of years.

Meanwhile, in the here and now, quakes up in the high-mag-8 range are pretty unlikely in SoCal. In theory they could occur but most people who study the faults there in depth (pun) seem to be of the opinion that quakes in the mag 7 range are about the limit. However, they don't know everything.

The trouble with dreams is that they are often symbolic and frequently exaggerate some factors. All the same, we'd be foolish to ignore them if we feel they have some kind of premonitory aspect. So, I'm taking note of what you've said and hoping that if something does occur it'll be way less than a series of high-range mag eights (or greater).

The other point is that as you are aware, the Cascadia fault is well capable of a quake in the mag 9 range. However, because it's been 311 years since the last one there, nobody truly knows just how much effect a Cascadia megathrust event would have further south, including down into the San Andreas system in Cal. I find it hard to accept that it would have no effects whatsoever, but any conjecture of how much is simply that: conjecture.

Sadly, one day we (or our descendants) will find out.

Best regards,

Mike

So I just poste on my other tremor thread about the HUGE amount of deep tremors located today. I am mentioning it here too, because of my thoughts earlier that we may see someting near the Southern OR and N Cali border. Well, there were 343 epicenters located today, all in the southern end of OR and the N end of CA.

Check out THIS map.


I know that means nothing to you if you haven't been following the deep tremors. They go in 12-15 month cycles. There normally isn't much of anything in between. This time though, there seems to be quite a bit of action on and off still. Todays count however, is I believe the largest amount of epicenters located in a single day since the episode was declared over in September. I think this is unusuall....so worth mentioning.

reply to post by westcoast

That's very interesting indeed! There seems to have been a steady buildup in the number of events each day since the 19th, and while that sort of gradual buildup has happened before, I think it's unusual to see this sort of distribution, with three main areas being affected.

Also, there's a lot of "jumping around". It's not like the events start in one place and then move on to another over time (which we've seen often, especially on Van Island for example); in this case there's no readily-discernible pattern.

One thing I have noticed, though, is that the majority of events seem to be located on or near the 40-km-depth line of the plate.

Certainly worth keeping an eye on!

On another matter, back in this post on Jan 19, I made a prediction for a quake event and stated it would most likely be in the region of the fault that runs up the Gulf Of California and near Mexicali. While there were three events within an hour in that region early in the morning on Jan 23 (UTC) -- the evening of Jan 22 local time -- they were all in the mag 4 range: a mag 4.3, 4.1, and a 4.2.

Although these three quakes all occurred within around half a degree of my given longitude (116 deg W) and were in the right latitude location, they were below the mag 5.0 that I gave as the minimum I'd allowed as a "hit" for this prediction. The reason for that minimum cut-off in this case is that while mag 4-range quakes don't occur every day in that region (and three in an hour is an even less common occurence), I don't take them as statistically significant enough when the known seismicity of the region is taken into account. They are scientifically interesting and worth noting for future reference, but in terms of the prediction, that's all they are.

I gave a time window of up to five days for my prediction, which meant until the end of Jan 24 (Pacific time). As it is now past that time and no quake of the predicted magnitude has occurred within the stated region, I am declaring my prediction a "no hit".

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


While calling it a 'not hit', I most definately think that those series of quakes give your theory a big dose of credibility. It'll be VERY interesting to see how your predictions, based on it, work out in the future!!!

Long time, no post but i had my first ear ring in months today. Same typical thing as before. Right ear, really high pitched TIIIIING sound. I guess i should have checked before posting if anything happened yet....this happened around 4 hours ago...just now getting a chance to post about it

MAJOR ear ring a few minutes ago. One of those ones that are so bad it actually hurt first before the ring started. Should be interesting to see if anything happens

Also, i'm starting to notice periods of insomnia lead up to these rings. I've been sleeping fine for the past few months and in recent days i've been waking up around 1-2am for no reason. This happened the last few times i've had ear ringing spells

reply to post by oldgoat


Now that is really odd, cause I just had one simliar to yours. My whole ear started to hurt and then the ring began, which was very loud, but short in duration, maybe 5 seconds. Never happened like that before.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Pretty much the same thing here. Mine also had the hearing go out for a second or two.

Another weird thing...my wife, who goes along with my ear ring stories but never really believes me, had an ear ring last night. She turned to me and was like "it just happened to me" and i said "what" and she said "my ear just rang out of nowhere, that was weird".

I think it happens to a lot of people, but it's not something you really ever think about while you're distracted by other things. Once your attention is brought to it though, it's hard to miss

I had two more after my last post, same type as before. The last one was a few seconds ago. Something is definitely going on

Felt the need to post tonight, don't know if it is significant but something is going on with me tonight. Back of the head pressure with headache , eye pressure, right side only, ears ringing from low to high tones, just going up and down over and over.
My legs are also hurting around my knees and just under my knees.

In the last 2 days i haven't had rings but my right ear has lost hearing for a few seconds a BUNCH of times. It just happened a little while ago, i lost count but this was at least 20 times so far

reply to post by JustMike


You forgot to point out this gem Mike:

It would take a massive GRB, CME, or EMP to cause a plane to crash. However, when you consider the changes in the magnetosphere and ionosphere that we are going through as we lead up to the galactic center, it is not only possible, but probable. The question becomes when....

Yet apparently it has no problem setting off the mass of an earthquake?

That site is a load of baloney. The GRB map is very interesting but has no relevance to earthquakes at all.

The sources of most GRBs are billions of light years away from Earth, implying that the explosions are both extremely energetic (a typical burst releases as much energy in a few seconds as the Sun will in its entire 10 billion year lifetime) and extremely rare

Source

Yet somehow the idiots on that forum consider that an event that happened billions of light years away can find the millions of Gigajoules of energy necessary to create an earthquake, but that will not affect a plane. Oh please. This world is full of total nutters!

I have to say however the more than a good chance that what Wikipedia says is the source is right but the reason is wrong, but that is another story!

Both ears ringing like crazy, and the weird thing is, my wife just told me hers are ringing too. Never happnened before with her. Really strong, sometimes alternating. Been going on for about 10 minutes now. Still ringing as of this moment. Never ever been this loud.

reply to post by JustMike

Among the most enigmatic and controversial pre-earthquake phenomena are the various expressions of unusual animal behavior. Tributsch (Tributsch, 1983) took the title of his book from the widely reported observations that hibernating ground-dwelling animals such as snakes have been seen crawling out of their dens in mid-winter. Other, lower animals such as earthworms reportedly emerge from the earth in unusual numbers and at unusual times. Chickens and other birds get restless, horses and cows become agitated, and dogs howl the night before a major earthquake. The tone regarding how to deal with these reports has been set by the remark in the 7th edition of Milne’s classical textbook Earthquakes and other Earth Movements (Milne & Lee, 1939): ‘‘The most common report of the behaviour of dogs at the time of the San Francisco disaster of 1906 was that they howled during the night preceding the earthquake, implying that they sensed the impending disaster. It is very difficult to accept such a suggestion for there is no scientific explanation as to why dogs should
have been gifted with these premonitions’’

Source: Lightning.pdf

All about the electrical effects of earth movements - earthquake precursors and the suppression of science.

I hate to sound redundant, but both ears are ringing like crazy right now, and my dog just started flipping out, barking like crazy, as are all of the dogs in the neighborhood. Same thing that happened on the 15th, except the wife is not here, but my 6 year old son is also complaining about his ears "buzzing". Hmm.