Bush: US is not headed into recession

And oh yea this coming from a man that has crashed how many oil companies? A man whose brother was involved in the savings and loan scandal... sure we can trust him and what he says, right.

has anyone brough up the point that neither

Bush or Bernanke or Paulson Can be honest with people should they see a recession.

why?

because forward expectations drive consumer sentiment, sure more and more people are getting their heads pulled out of the sand while the cost of living rises at the same time their assets deflate in value but still a huge number of people believe we will be ok "cause bush says so, and we should trust our president lol " .

the stock market is still trading sideway's sort a stable and they are using the "no recession" line because they have to otherwise, market speculators will price in lower earnings for company's and then sell their stock based on the fact that with lower earning they will be over-valued and consumers will shut down *faster than they are forced to.

the re-distributioin of wealth is going to Dubai and Asia. cheers

the thing i wonder is why the bond market is rallying so much when inflation going forward is supposed to be looking worse and worse, is it a "flight" to safety? otherwise people must think that this credit crisis could lead to a financial system crisis or failure , which would be deflationary and hurt even tangible assets like wheat, metals , real estate

seems like we either continue to have intrest rates below the rate of inflation which creates a boom in tangible assets (minus real estate) until either the credit crisis in contained by re-flation amid gov't bailout or we have a system wide financial crisis and the prices for most all assets deflate and then Bonds and cash would gain value. especially in stable currency's.

[edit on 29-2-2008 by cpdaman]

Has anybody seen the markets today?

Again at the bottom at 300 points down, I tell you Bush needs a class on how a nation's economy works because so far he thinks that America is bottomless pit of money for him to use at will.

reply to post by marg6043


Far as I can tell, his financial theory is "whoever has the biggest guns can print as much money as they like."

He may have a point. Unfortunately for the US, the rest of the world isn't buying that line now.

reply to post by kleverone


he also said that Saddam had Nuclear weapon, 911 was an outside job, terrorists hate freedom and that there is no such thing as a cult running this country! I rather just NOT believe anything those bastards have to say.

reply to post by freighttrain
Dude, thats the best signature I've seen so far! If everyone stays aware of the economic woes and what's causind them it will eventually change, however history proves it will collapse first.

Is anyone aware of the fact the federal reserve makes alot of money during these times of inflation/recession.How The Fed Works: from howstuffworks.com

My last post include a link to explain simply how this derranged monetary system works. I suggest reading this before trying to explain your views on a very complicated system~!

I watched Bush's speech and I thought it was kind of sad (and rewarding at the same time in a way). He seems to think that spouting the same kind of rhetoric that worked on the masses 7 years ago will still work today.

I think too many people have become of aware of his methods at this point and the average joe just isn't buying it anymore. I am 49 years old and I have lived through the Nixon administration and several others both Democrat and Republican and it seems painfully obvious to me that unless I am rich and/or I own a corporation the Republicans have nothing to offer me as an individual. The Bush administration brought this so much in the nation's "face" that I can't imagine anyone but a zealot supporting them anymore.

The recent Republican "defections" seem to bear this out. Some of them seem to be actively practicing "damage control". Sadly I don't see the Democrats as a whole better, it seems to be a matter of choosing between 2 evils.

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa



I agree Bubba... However, try telling that to all the folks who are in the middle of trying to pay so much for gasoline, food, utilities, and still working hard at not losing their house. I read today of a fellow in Florida, a real estate speculator, I would assume... anyway, he's selling houses, and it's to the point where he is offering a new car with each house he sells.

I live in a failry rural area here in the Midwest. After being here for 15 years, the land started selling and model homes started going up. Two and three years later, most of the subdivisions are still those smatterings of model homes.

One of my friends is a new car salesman for Chevrolet. He's crying because no one is buying, even with GM and local level sale incentives. No one has money.

Recession, or not, depending on your definition... People are hurting, and getting more in trouble every day.

Of course, with a lot of the consumer protections gone and the credit companies able to charge usery level rates with impunity, what do you expect?

BTW... Giving you a star for your efforts.

Whether the "academic definition" of a recession has been met or not, we are definitely heading for trouble, or rather more trouble than we are already in.
As for aaaaaarrrrrooooorrrraa, he's 19, and probably just learned the definition of a recession in his ECON101 class. For what it's worth, we were all 19 at one time. (Remember the old saying about how when "I was 19, my father was so stupid. Now that I'm (fill in your age), it's amazing how my father has "smartened up".)

Anyway, Bush can't even begin to imagine how the average American is affected by the current situation.

What is $4 a gallon gas mean to someone who bought the Texas Rangers for $86,000,000.00 and sold them for a quarter of a billion dollars?

How can someone like him have compassion for people who hold 2 and 3 jobs down, just to make sure that their children have food, clothes and shoes, when he was born with a silver spoon in his you-know-where?

Posters such as Trance Optic, a WingandaSigh, and others have made great points here. Many are scared and many are hurting.
We're North Americans, South Americans, Asians. Africans, Europeans, Australians, .....Human Beings, if ONE of us is hurting, we are ALL hurting.

We're only on Earth for a short time, too short a time to be killing, degrading, trying to beat the "other guy".

We shouldn't be BOMBING civilians, destroying their cities, their infrastructures, then rebuilding them with Halliburton. We should be helping those that need help, all over the world.

We shouldn't be using technology to kill, we should be using it to save lives. If we spent as much money on medical research and feeding humanity as we spend on new weapons, there would be no need for wars.

The banking system should not be used to repossess homes, but to help people acquire and KEEP their homes.

I really fear for my children and my grandchildren and the world they are inheriting. I see them struggle so hard just to pay their rents, feed their families, and get to work. We help them as best we can. What about those that don't have family?

Several posters mentioned "redistribution of wealth". Of course, that is the main cause of so much pain. Greed.
Why does someone like Warren Buffet or Bill Gates feel that the billions that they already have, are not enough, they need more.

Most of the posters here are probably not in the category of millionaire or billionaire.
We need to stick together, work together, help each other.

It doesn't mean we have to agree with each other on anything, OTHER than a basic respect for each individuals' right to be respected, and live a life free from fear and poverty.

There is enough capital in most countries so that people need not suffer from hunger. Unfortunately, most of the people we seem to pick as our leaders don't seem to share the same beliefs.

reply to post by ProfEmeritus


You make many good points there, Prof. And I wish I could agree with the most important one. I wish there was a way in which we could provide for those less fortunate, a way to have every person on the planet with plenty to eat, a nice house, a new car... but I'm afraid it's a pipe dream.

You see, it isn't George Bush who got us into this mess, and it isn't OPEC, Exxon, Shell, Osama bin Laden, the Democrats, or the Republicans. It's US. All of us, from the bum living in a cardboard box, to the CEO of a multi-billion-dollar firm.

The housing crisis is a direct result of four evils. Contractors who greedily built and built larger and larger homes, expecting there to always be a market for them. People who bought homes beyond their means in some vain attempt to impress their neighbors and friends. Investors who were too lazy to actually look into what they were buying, and therefore did not see the problem coming. And banks who were so greedy as to think that they could grab a few more dollars before things turned sour. Greed, ignorance, pride, and laziness, just four of the traits that seem to be prevalent among our 'civilized' society.

Similar arguments can be made for the credit crisis, and, indeed, about any of the myriad of crisis we have right now in the US and the world. The poor are, in general, lazy. Not because they won't work, but because they continue to practice a life-style that leads to poverty. It's easier than changing. The middle-class are prideful, striving daily to 'keep up with the Jones'. They indulge in a fantasy that they are somehow better than those around them because they have more things. The rich are greedy. That's why they're rich. All are responsible for this mess, including you and me.

The US Government, the states, and the cities cannot operate without the consent of the people. That consent need not be expressed openly; it is just as extant when expressed as an absence of disagreement, or, as an absence of directed disagreement. I can complain all day to a fellow trucker on the phone about the out-of-control spending, or the high taxes, but no one in a position to change things has heard me.

When was the last time someone wrote their Senator about an unneeded item in a budget? When was the last time you refused to buy something you wanted because it had too high a price? When was the last time you showed up at a city council meeting to oppose a tax hike? I am ashamed of my own answers to these questions. And now, it appears to be too late to head off the coming consequences.

May those consequences serve more to educate and enlighten for the future, than they do to bring pain... and may our children be wiser than we were.

TheRedneck

edited due to another evil... failure to proofread


[edit on 29-2-2008 by TheRedneck]

reply to post by TheRedneck

I agree with you as to some of the reasons for the current banking crisis. People did, in many cases, buy above their means. In addition, we glorified "Flip this House" on TV, and encouraged people to buy and resell, like there would be no end to the upward spiral. But that is only part of the story.

However, as to one of the largest factors affecting us today, it is the $3 trillion price tag of the Iraq war, to this point, with a projection of up to $7 trillion.
www.theaustralian.news.com.au...



No country, no matter how great, can expend that amount of money, and not have it destroy the country.

reply to post by ProfEmeritus


Thank you for the agreement, but it is an ironic twist of truth that a war typically stimulates an economy. As witness, World War II was the primary reason for the end of the Great Depression of the 30s. And compared with the typical spending bills slipping through Congress like eggs through a hen, a few trillion is trivial. There's your true financial leak - $700,000 for a bike trail here, a few hundred grand for rodent control there...

TheRedneck

reply to post by TheRedneck

And compared with the typical spending bills slipping through Congress like eggs through a hen, a few trillion is trivial.

I miss your point here. The TOTAL US Budget for 2007 was only 2.8 trillion dollars. Here is the breakdown:
# $586.1 billion (+7.0%) - Social Security
# $548.8 billion (+9.0%) - Defense[2]
# $394.5 billion (+12.4%) - Medicare
# $294.0 billion (+2.0%) - Unemployment and welfare
# $276.4 billion (+2.9%) - Medicaid and other health related
# $243.7 billion (+13.4%) - Interest on debt
# $89.9 billion (+1.3%) - Education and training
# $76.9 billion (+8.1%) - Transportation
# $72.6 billion (+5.8%) - Veterans' benefits
# $43.5 billion (+9.2%) - Administration of justice
# $33.1 billion (+5.7%) - Natural resources and environment
# $32.5 billion (+15.4%) - Foreign affairs
# $27.0 billion (+3.7%) - Agriculture
# $26.8 billion (+28.7%) - Community and regional development
# $25.0 billion (+4.0%) - Science and technology
# $23.5 billion (+0.0%) - Energy

How can you say that " a few trillion is trivial"? That's more than any of the items in the entire budget by a factor of at least 4.

reply to post by ProfEmeritus


Specially when our wealth builders that used to be within the manufacturing sector and the supporters of the middle class income has gone to make China, Asia, India and many other cheaper labor sponsors wealthier.

Funny as jobs for the middle class are outsourced and we are becoming big spenders on credit we have an economy that is completely Dependant on imports and how much people with no money can spend.

Yes you are right our nation can no survive on spending alone, as the dollar keep falling we will be turned into what we were in pre-industrial times.

reply to post by ProfEmeritus


Whoa, facts! Where did those come from?

I seem to remember some appropriation bills that were over the top recently. 'll try to find some data on those and reply back. In the meantime, I sit in awe of your resourcefulness. Good shot! I would click the friend/foe button on you, but I'm not sure which one you are yet. Just know you have my respect in either case.

TheRedneck

reply to post by ProfEmeritus

OK, Prof, you've got me. Those figures appear to be accurate. I caught the page on Wiki where you got them, and I verified the general accuracy through several government reporting sites. So I have no choice to concede that yes, the Iraqi War is a major drain on our economic condition. That said, I still see it as a needed expense, but that is a topic for another thread.

I do, however, believe that a large amount could be saved through reducing earmarks that benefit small areas exclusively, like the biking trail I mentioned (ironically only a short distance from the collapsed I-35 bridge, which received nothing in that bill). I'm not against a biking trail being built; I only think it would be wiser to spend resources thusly when we have resources, rather than when we are in economic turmoil. The same could probably be said for many other earmarks, resulting a savings that would still be substantial and would not be nearly as controversial.

Here's an idea... stop raising minimum wage and instead tie the salaries of all elected officials to the average income for the lower 90% of their constituents... I bet we'd see real wages start to rise on their own. That would go a long way towards fixing the economy.

TheRedneck

reply to post by TheRedneck

You are right on, as far as eliminating earmarks. In 2006, the last year for which there are reliable figures, 63.8 Billion dollars were wasted on earmarks.

coburn.senate.gov...


The problem, of course, is that congressional members like to use them to go back to their districts, and brag about how they brought them to the district. Almost all of those earmark legislative programs only benefit a very small percentage of the population, as you correctly pointed out, but we all have to pay for them in taxes or an increased deficit (which our children or grandchildren end up having to pay.)

reply to post by ProfEmeritus


Tell me about it, wait when the stimulus package has to be returned back in the way of more deficit money.

The ones that will benefit with the free give away is the ones that pay no taxes, so is up to the working class to pay the tab.

reply to post by marg6043

Yes, that seems to be our lot in life, paying for those that don't contribute. I don't have a problem helping people that are truly in dire straights, due to no fault of their own. However, our culture has created a welfare class consisting of two major groups:
1.) Those that have figured out that if they play the game right, they can feign disability and collect for life
2.) The very wealthy that have figured out how to bribe their way to even more wealth, through government contracts. (e.g. Halliburton and you-know who)