Bush: US is not headed into recession

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by kozmo

 

George bush will do anything for the benefit of the GOP

They have others to do the job for them.

I would too if I was him... Hopefully I could pay them as little as possible too. Give them a nice toyota, 3 bedroom apartment what more could they want? But I'd give the really good ones a lexus and a 3 bedroom house, that way they work for me longer and harder and do a better job to clip the most coupons

I don't know if I'd actually do that... but I was just elaborating on your point.


My main point:

Don't fight the system... figure out how to use it to your advantage. Until it collapses.


By the way... The Democrats and Republicans are both controlled by the same people... sorry to rain on your parade.










[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


In general, one posts links to outside info as a means of building credibility for a particular point of view. Having links to economists, for example, is much more credible than just saying "I don't think so." Thus, it would be nice if you could post links to back up your own personal view.

Let me try this from another direction:

www.npr.org...

Business
SUV Demand Drops Due to Gas Prices, Consumer Tastes
by Wendy Kaufman

Morning Edition, June 2, 2005 · Demand for traditional SUVs has fallen dramatically over the past year. As gas prices have risen, many consumers have turned to smaller cars, or SUV hybrids. Changing consumer tastes are challenging U.S. automakers, which have counted on SUVs to bring in high profits.

If demand isn't declining, why would people stop buying SUVs?

In addition, wages are stagnant while prices are increasing. This leaves Americans with less discretionary income, and they're forced to make budget cuts to afford necessities.

www.newsobserver.com...


Do you have links to back up your assertions?

WRT interest rates in the 70s, it doesn't matter what the top rates were because it was REGULATED. Now it isn't. You do understand this difference, don't you?

For example, if I buy a crate of dishes on my credit card, and I know that my interest rates can't rise above some arbitrary number (whatever it is - let's say 25% for ease of use), then I'm assuming less risk than if I buy those same dishes on a credit card that has NO LIMIT to how high my interest rate can go. Get it?

wrt the subprime mess, I essentially agree with your last statement.

The problem with subprime is it spreads to every other entity that has a link to the original loss. So if Bank of America loses $2 Billion on subprime, they 1) have to make up those loses by charging more somewhere and 2) have to tighten credit so they don't incur further losses.

In addition, because that bank has losses, they don't have as much money to invest elsewhere, and they must boost their reserves to cover increasing loses.

Thus, the credit crunch.

The poor guy who bought the house ends up homeless. Which is why we now have tent cities in LA.

newsinfo.inquirer.net...

reply to post by AWingAndASigh


No. I'm not going to post links to a news article, unless the news article is my main point, not the support of my main point. I'm a person talking to another person, state what you want to talk about in post to me, don't just put up a link, point a finger, and and say: "see!!!" I have yet in this entire thread to post a link to an outside source, although I will refer to where I get my numbers as a primary source (I.E.: Associated press, BEA, BLS... For what their worth... but google is your friend if you really don't trust me and want to see the source)

No, I'm not going to back my viewpoint up to a person with a BA in economics... that's what I'm going to school for... Is anyone else on ATS an econ major or already have one? Raise of hands? Where are you in this thread?

I've had enought of the Ron paul, david icke, alex jones, etc worshipping on ATS... This whole place is ignorant disinfo worshippers

As far as poor people in this world... there is always going to be poor people. Get over it.

Until there are actual people who are making claims... and not just supporting claims of random people who a person could definitely find another person of similar status to refute, I'm done.









[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


In other words, you don't have any links to back up your statements.

Economists can be wrong. Even good economists. Relying on just your own opinion is a risky approach. Consensus is much better, and more credible. You'll understand this the first time you're wrong on the job and ten billion people jump on you from every side because you based your wrong opinion on your own opinion and nothing else.

WRT poor people - well, a lot of things have gone on since the beginning of the world, and always will. Child abuse. Rape. Genocide. War.

But that doesn't mean we shouldn't fight against it, or not do something to help those who suffer when we can, just because it's a problem that will always be around.

Your saying that nothing is wrong, that our recession isnt that its just rich gettin richer?

Thats kinda a enomical problem close to a recession really, I mean they arent going to be supporting our Nations industries they buy overseas or high end celeb products.

Why else if we were near a reccesion or already in one would bush be trying to give us money to spend? I dont think that Money for being funny.

Right now, I am a Low Income statistic. I an my family have felt this an are feeling this everytime we run out of milk, diapers, eggs, napkins, Basic things that we never had a problem gettin before, But we have watched our prices for these items and other go up lil here lil there an now its about 2 dollars an some odd cents more then we used to pay umm about 2 years ago.

Seems to me that if these companies were doing so good with their selling of the items then they wouldnt risk lower sales for rasing the prices even if it was to counteract the gas deal, They must really need to raise prices to balance the costs of what isnt being sold like it used too.

and Dont talk to me like you know me, You know OF me, from ATS dont talk down to me dont make opinons you havent experienced, unless you met me you cant say anything about me not being able to get a job right now isnt due to me dressing nice, or being respectful or polite( which is something every job will look at you for ) or the fact that i must know it all cuz I served my country, You sir are being ignorant here, and that isnt accepted in this forum. You can break apart what I say an counter say it all you want, but You just simply shouldnt talk in a negitive fashion about anyone.... Period at 19 years of age thats when I join the Air force an Had alot more respect for people in general then you obviously do now.



[edit on 28-2-2008 by Trance Optic]

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


Is nothing wrong with posting opinions but once in a while a link will add more credibility than just an opinion.

Just a friendly advise.

The truth is that right now Inflation is playing a big part for many Americans facing the increased prices of everyday need.

As gas prices goes up so inflation gets worst, tag with a weak dollar, credit crunch, housing woes and you have the right ingredients for recession.

Dollar to slip into steady decline as expert paints a bleak picture

www.independent.ie...

GDP data confirms weak US growth

The housing slump has weighed on US growth
US economic growth fell sharply in the last three months of 2007 as the credit crunch took effect and spending on new housing slumped, revised figures show.

news.bbc.co.uk...

See, we can only take what Mr. Bush said with a grain of salt because he has to support his political party and make sure that everything looks good for the next presidential candidate.

BTW I agree both parties cater to the same interest and is not the American people




[edit on 28-2-2008 by marg6043]

Originally posted by aaaauroraaaaa
The depression wasn't inflation... it was deflation. Most of the time when people are worried about hyperinflation... they should be worried about the hyper-deflation that usually follows.

The Great Depression wasn't either. It was a collapse of the economic system which in time righted itself with lower prices, dictated by the economic means of the present consumers. It was predated by inflation and out-of-control spending, mainly in the investment market. In short, the difference between then and now is that our last two bubbles have been the dot-com tech stocks and housing. Back then it was the stock market bubble.

I'm no economist major. Never claimed to be one. But I am an old fart who lived through the 70s, and knew people who lived through the 30s. The reason the gasoline prices did not fly out of control in the 70s like they are doing today is that Carter put price caps on them... and the demand led to required rationing. I don't need to have a piece of paper to know what I saw then, and I don't need it to know what I am seeing today.

There will be no deflation. There will continue to be inflation until people cannot support the economic system anymore. When that line is crossed, everything will collapse... banks will close, utilities will shut down, stores will lock their doors, and factories will disappear. All the jobs will be gone. All the bank accounts, retirement accounts, government checks, and pensions will be gone. And it will remain that way until new companies can form under the new conditions that will allow people to once again purchase the things they need.

It will also not happen overnight. Some people will collapse before others, and obviously the poorest will be hit first. The real problem is that the runaway government tax/spend mentality will continue to try to keep things afloat (like Bush is doing now) as long as possible, thereby hastening the decline for everyone and worsening the overall effect.

Advice: SAVE your money, get out of debt, and prepare to live without the things you now see as 'necessities'. Oh, and buy a gun so the neighbors don't come and tote everything you have left off for themselves.

TheRedneck

what about welfare? wouldnt that be something the government would try an drop before anything major hit the fan? an then wouldnt that cause civil unrest?

I mean lets put some warning signs intot he mix see if we can spot any.....

reply to post by Trance Optic


Welfare is currently almost non-existant. Food stamps are insufficient to feed anyone - although it is a good supplement. There is no welfare for single folks, and only limited welfare for folks with children.

And yes, I think it adds to the pressure people are under, and their desperation driven response.

If they eliminate something like Social Security, the economy would collapse because all that money would be removed from the economy, as well as the multiplier effect revenues it generates.

So if the government is ever forced to seriously cut at every turn, that's when we can expect a serious economic depression.

reply to post by TheRedneck


You are not so old my friend I lived through the seventies as a teen and I remember the gas lines, you are right the markets of today are totally different to the ones back when the great depression.

Still one of the things I see no happening right now is that our government is not imposing control and regulations.

The spending is out of control.

Gas right now is been held back by been a political year, but we all know that over 100 dollars barrel of oil is going to inflate gas prices sooner than later and more so to everyday prices of goods.

Originally posted by Britguy
Remember, a Bumblebee, according to the laws of aerodynamics, should not be able to fly, yet it does

Actually, they have figured out how it flies. It has to do with the way it flaps it's wings. We couldn't figure this out until the advent of super high speed shutters for cameras.

Sorry to be off topic. Back to the recession.

reply to post by Griff


For the curious:

www.livescience.com...

"The honeybees have a rapid wing beat," Altshuler told LiveScience. "In contrast to the fruit fly that has one eightieth the body size and flaps its wings 200 times each second, the much larger honeybee flaps its wings 230 times every second."

This was a surprise because as insects get smaller, their aerodynamic performance decreases and to compensate, they tend to flap their wings faster.

OK, I was curious...

Isn't this arguement over whether we trust Bush's opinion a waste of time.
I don't argument finished.
This statement of his wasn't delivered from his original thought anyway, judging by his decision making processes, he doesn't even decide what to eat for breakfst without an advisor.

As far as the over emphasised GDP -indicator- aaaaaaaarrrrroooooooorrrrra(or whatever) likes to throw in everyones face this is no more than an indicator of said recession, it is the ultimate indicator that makes a recession official however anyone who argues it is the best way to predict it is ludacris.
The GDP drop is only verification of problems this can take years to drop after the people have been feeling the recession. This is the reason they keep offering bailouts such as tax breaks, emergency payments, and worst of all the intrest rate drop.
Bush can drag the GDP along with him for years boosting it to deny recession, as the educated (aaaarrrorra) blindly see this as thepoint of recession.
The actions taken by him to save the GDP will amplify the effect of said economic woes.

THE REAL INDICATOR IS THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR. It is the un-biased, immediate reflection of economic policy.
If you are in fact an economic major you should know by now a recession or depression can not be verified until after the fact, so to me, the way the elite economists verify it is flawed and unreliable. Usually they say these things that you say and then a year later they say oh yeah by the way the GDP shows such and such so we've been in a recession for the past few years.
In closing your precious GDP does absolutely nothing to determine if we are in fact falling economicaly right now. Protecting this -statistic- as 'ol Bush is now is furthering our downfall. It's undeniable get over yourself aaaaarrrruoraa and quit insulting people to make you look smart, this is an indicator of the opposite.

Originally posted by marg6043
Gas right now is been held back by been a political year, but we all know that over 100 dollars barrel of oil is going to inflate gas prices sooner than later and more so to everyday prices of goods.

Wait and see what happens if that oil tax that Congress wants to pass actually does make it into effect. You know that the oil companies will be passing that onto the consumer.

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


How much do you know about IT? IT is INTEGRAL to business operations. If your IT guy can't hack it, your business can lose big time bucks.

I used to work for a big mortgage company. After I left, the newbs neglected to cycle the backup tapes. Their server went down and they had no backups. They brought the server back online and had people using it - and overwriting the data on the disk - before they realized they had no backups. The company went bankrupt.

Another company I worked for lost a million dollars for every hour the server was down. Needless to say, keeping the servers running was top priority.

That's how important IT is to business.

And yes, I knew some folks who worked 7 days a week, too. I couldn't keep that schedule, and I didn't want to.

Businesses make pretty stupid decisions over money, including the one I mentioned above that led to their bankruptcy. ONLY thinking about money is bad business.

reply to post by jerico65


There's a cool electric bike I've been thinking about buying:

www.walmart.com...
www.walmart.com...

Toss on a bike trailer to carry groceries, and you're set. Cheaper than a car, and no gas required.

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa



You do realize what happens when the redistribution of wealth becomes too unbalanced right? Sure the government can flood the market with money better than it could in the earlier 1930's, because we are completely off the gold standard now, but that is only a temporary fix. In time the wealthy gobble that flood money up and now inflation occured and you are back at the same situation you were in however many month ago.

If we continue to let this redistribution of wealth get unbalanced you are going to see spending collapse. Like they say "One person can only spend so much".

In other words. If you take 100,000 people and distribute say 100,000,000 dollars among them equally, you will see ALOT of spending. If you give 100 million to one guy, hes going to have a much harder time spending it like 100,000 people would. He may decide since his new lifestyle is so much more expensive that he will need to SAVE money to support it. that means you just took X amount of money out of the market permanently.

When you have a large class of middle class citizens, you have alot of spending because they don't need to save a large amount because their lifestyle isn't really all that extravagant(sp?). Rich people though, They could be saving millions upon millions in the bank which never makes it back into the market. Then their lifestyle gets even bigger (they become richer) so they have to save MORE money. Thats MORE money that is getting pulled out of the market.

If the rich people run out of things to spend their money on, which will happen if they accumulate too much money, then we run into a real problem. The only thing they can do is reinvest or save. There is nothing physical to buy.

Another thing. What happens when there is too much on the market? When the production of goods and services is faster than the ability of such products to be bought? The market gets flooded with product which cannot be bought and the prices start to fall to make up for losses the companies are now suffering from.

You drop the price of say a car, and the car market will boom...for a little while. The production will be high, everything will seem great. That will be until the companies start to feel the effects of the flooded markets. If you have a market of 100 people 10 rich, 65 middle class and 25 poor, and make it cheap enough for the poor to afford it, you just effectively screwed your company. Why? Because now the 10 rich people are getting their car for practically nothing. They are spending even less money then they would. The middle class is doing fine with the costs and they go about living. The poor just scrape by with a car and now cannot afford to buy much else. Well...who is left to sell a car to now? You just completely flooded the market with your product. Your company is about to hit a pretty hard bump in the road since production rates for that boom were high...but now you don't have the buyers in the market anymore.

Credit adds to the problem because now the poor and lower middle class are taking out credit to pay for things they otherwise couldn't afford. Short term boom, but a long term screw over because now these people are spending money on the loan they used to buy the car rather than other products or reinvesting. All the wealth starts going to the people who gave out the credit.

This furthers the distribution of wealth and confines it to a small group of people. This small group of people cannot spend money the way all their customers could have.

In the end, the question is, how do you stop the indistribution of wealth from reaching a critical level? Ill think it over, but I have to go to the gym now.

If someone had the balls to ask bush what a recession was . I bet you would get a crazy friggin answer.

"It's um ..ya know...when ya...go.like..outside...to play.......i mean...ya know ...like kids at...umm...school do... WE...in other words....are not...umm..playing around here with ...these...umm..terrorists.9/11.9/11.9/11."



[edit on 28-2-2008 by oLDWoRLDDiSoRDeR]

If you think its bad now; wait until you see the impact the Billary/Obama tax increases on Small Business Owners income levels does to the economy. There is no way to win. If the Left wins we loose. If the Right wins we loose. If they raise taxes get ready for the Unemployment Line.

For now there is no evidence that a recession is imminent but people are being scared by exaggerated news stories designed to influence the elections and have stopped spending. In other words a self fulfilling prophecy. Tell people the economy is bad enough times and they stop spending our of fear. Its a simple enough formula. Just another election year load of.....

reply to post by Blaine91555


There are problems with fundamentals. It isn't just hot air.

WRT Democrats, if they raise taxes, it will be on upper income people - NOT on regular joe small business person.

Given the redistribution of weath and the declining middle class, I'm not sure that would have the impact you suggest.