Cat 5 Hurricane in Persian Gulf!!! Weather Wars or Wrath of God???

Not entirely. We're still learning. Hence the difficulty in predicting how many storms will develop and what track they will take.

you CAN understand the mechanisms of how a storm functions and not predict 6 MONTHS IN ADVANCE EXACTLY HOW MANY WILL FORM AND WHERE they will be. why? mutually exclusive i.e entirely different


kind of like thunderstorms. they know how they form, they can do clould seeding to enhance rainfall in certain places, but they can't predict where the severe thunderstorms and tornado's will be 6 months before they form

your logic and reasoning worry's me especially for a weather fan

back to the post

the u.s wants war with iran they really do they were willing to SACRIFICE the U.S ARMY and leave them in IRAQ and after 5 years they only have command of 1/3 the city of BAGHAD and in turn there troops are sick injured fed up with fighting or dieing. well in 2 years with the NAU i guess we wont need U.S troops to fight at home if someone attacks us, we will have UN troops marching in L.A like kissingler envisioned 15 years ago

[edit on 6-6-2007 by cpdaman]

Why would we do anything to make the Resource situation any worse in the middle east than it already is today? This is the most ridiculous idea yet.

Any area with an Ocean and warm enough climate can have a Hurricane happen. This isn't a manmade event.

so does this mean anywhere there is ocean and warm enough climate you can't make or enhance/ modify storms? to put it bluntly......sorry wrong

as far as why would we hurt natural resources in the middle east? ever heard of Uraninum tipped bullets which we use in warfare, those are great for "natural resources" as well

[edit on 6-6-2007 by cpdaman]

btw gonu had defied all forecasts a few hours ago and re-strengthend once it got away from NE oman and the influence the mountains had on it.

it developed an eye once again and as of 2 pm the weather channel reported gusts already reaching 70mph on the southern iranian coast

PICTURES HERE on page 19 of thread www.storm2k.org...

God !

Why is there no one speaking on behalf of God?
You Americans I am ashamed of you; your founding father in that Independance Day Declaration of Independance thingy you celebrate sometime in July justified rebellion against the wise European order by saying something about ......natures god

So if the American God who sends storms in the Gulf areas (take your pick as to which Gulf and whose oil supplies are disrupted) your very own "natures god" the God that Jefferson and all your founding fathers knew is not being worshipped at this point ?

Now in addition to this for the followers of Jesus -well Jesus one time stood up in a boat and commanded the winds and the waves and they said "who is this man even the wind and the waves obey him"
So where are His followers in this debate ?

Instead we get weather report this; military experiements that and all this techno trash which the real God who created heaven and earth and is still totally in control of it all... the techno trash that he well knows how to sweep away and judge by things called "acts of God"

Fear God and be wise (the good book says that "the fear of god is the beginning of wisdom")

i think god is within you not out and about making this and that happen

what is going on in the world today is a result of nature combined with the free will of billions of individuals compromised by the shortcomings of the human condition to each his own

hmm, Gonu has left the dry air of Oman, defied the odds and make a northeast turn, got stronger, and now has Iran in its crosshairs.

So much for the dry air and mountains destroying this storm, seams all it did was make it angry.

The water in the Gulf is extremely warm, we could see further stregnthening before it makes landfall in Iran.

The pics on that other website above are amazing, thanks!

[edit on 6-6-2007 by Where2Hide2006]

???
Winds have weakened and are down to 50 mph...
Too much dry air. It'll be extremely weak before it hits anywhere

Thats what happens when a storm finishes crossing land and gets back on water. The problem now is there is not enough water area to make the storm any stronger. It did not even cross the mountain range, it merely glided past it. It is but a mere tropical storm, and will not go any further.

A few miles wind speed increase wont do squat. It happens all the time when a storm finishes riding Florida from the Gulf to the Atlantic or Vice versa. The difference is there are two vast and open water bodies to draw energy from. Now imagine a body of water only as big as about the size of the Florida Peninsual comptlely surrounded by mountainous terrain. Nothing significant will come of this.

the worst of it will be heavy rains, although I do not see much of any chance of floodng, seeing as that only occurs in low-lying areas.

By the way, rthere are no major industries or infrastructure along Iran's Gulf of Oman coastline, nor much action along the Strait of Hormuz. According to this atlas, it looks mostly concentrated along the southern Iran-Iraq border, with various other industries scattered about the countrys Northern and Western Interiors.

Originally posted by DYepes
Thats what happens when a storm finishes crossing land and gets back on water. The problem now is there is not enough water area to make the storm any stronger. It did not even cross the mountain range, it merely glided past it. It is but a mere tropical storm, and will not go any further.

How about Katrina? If I remember correctly she did the same thing and people thought nothing about it. and look what happened.

flhurricane.com...

[edit on 6-6-2007 by Realtruth]

Originally posted by Realtruth
How about Katrina? If I remember correctly she did the same thing and people thought nothing about it. and look what happened.

No, you're definitely not remembering that correctly (as far as what people thought)....
ALL forecasts were for Katrina to strengthen. In fact, it really didn't even weaken that much after hitting Florida. It went down for a few hours but it started to regain strength fairly quickly.
As stated in DY's post, the Gulf of Mexico is a huge body of water in which storms can restrengthen. Where Gonu is, there's not enough water and conditions now aren't as favorable.

Originally posted by cpdaman
so does this mean anywhere there is ocean and warm enough climate you can't make or enhance/ modify storms? to put it bluntly......sorry wrong

as far as why would we hurt natural resources in the middle east? ever heard of Uraninum tipped bullets which we use in warfare, those are great for "natural resources" as well

[edit on 6-6-2007 by cpdaman]

Heh, Uranium tipped bullets? What does that have to do with anything? If all the Uranium in the world disappeared tomorrow, there would still be enough stockpiled to make a billion more...

Don't you understand the way we work, create create create, refine refine refine, manufacture more than you'll ever need, then trickle it out.

By the way when was the last time any munition such as "Uranium" tipped bullets were actually issued or used in combat?? Soliders in the United States can't even get standard issue body armour, where are they going to get high tech bullets...

Originally posted by Brainiac

Originally posted by cpdaman
so does this mean anywhere there is ocean and warm enough climate you can't make or enhance/ modify storms? to put it bluntly......sorry wrong

as far as why would we hurt natural resources in the middle east? ever heard of Uraninum tipped bullets which we use in warfare, those are great for "natural resources" as well

[edit on 6-6-2007 by cpdaman]

Heh, Uranium tipped bullets? What does that have to do with anything? If all the Uranium in the world disappeared tomorrow, there would still be enough stockpiled to make a billion more...

Don't you understand the way we work, create create create, refine refine refine, manufacture more than you'll ever need, then trickle it out.

By the way when was the last time any munition such as "Uranium" tipped bullets were actually issued or used in combat?? Soliders in the United States can't even get standard issue body armour, where are they going to get high tech bullets...

they're not that high tech considering how long they've been around and used in combat (2 decades or so). it would be an advantage for the government to get rid of their radioactive waste and using your enemy as a conduit to do so just makes sense. standard issue body armor is still quality stuff and i'm sure it doesn't have the backing that radioactive community does. america has more waste than anybody. they have to do something with it other than continually burying it underground or in mountains.

UPDATE:

The center predicted Gonu would make landfall on the southeastern Iranian coast late Thursday. But it was likely to spare Iran's offshore oil installations that are more than 120 miles to the west, the center and oil officials said.

At least 20 deaths were blamed on Gonu in Oman, including members of police rescue squads, and 24 were reported missing, said Royal Police spokesman Abdullah al-Harthi. Rescue teams searched devastated areas in helicopters and boats, he said.

Across the Gulf of Oman, Iranian state television reported that a resident of the port city of Bandar Abbas was killed in a car accident Wednesday due to poor visibility from the storm.

source

All oil related industry seems to be safe.

The oil is safe everyone, we can drive freely again.

Latest info and forecast path:



We have worse thunderstorms in the Midwest and Southern parts of the USA than this storm has been.

Yesterday right here we had wind gusts well over 70 mph, in fact, my neighbor had to chase his garbage can for over a block.

Weather war, or wrath of God?

You know Gazz, while examining the terrain surrounding the path this storm has taken, I think I have discovered something I may not have realized before. In Florida, when a storm crosses into either side of use, it will continue to ride the waters until it hits land. But usally when a storm goes up along the Eastenr seaboard of the US, I notice that typically they ride the coast. Obviously they may wreak havoc on the surrounding coastline, but the storms do not make landfall and go deeper into the country, they just ride the coast until the cooler water forces the storm to weaken, and spread out sporadically into nothing in all directions.

I believe this has to do with the elevation of the mountain chain on our coast. When I look at the map you have there, and consider that the surrounding land is almost exclusivley mountainous we notice it continues to ride the water. Obviously there is not nearly enough water volume/area to strengthen this storm, however, is it at all possible that the storm, even in its weakened state could continue to ride the water, just gliding past the mountains, and actually ride the strait? Could it be at all possible that the storm would just happen to make it to a very inconvient (to us) spot where important oil stuff happens, and just by chance have enough charge lef in it to coincidentaly drop a barrage of lightning strikes at several key points that would have a significant impact on oil transfers?

OSAMA BIN LADEN HAS THE WEATHER CONTROL MACHINE, AND HE IS USING IT FROM AN UNDISCLOSED LOCATION, WITH PRAYERS TO ALLAH TO EXACT HIS REVENGE ON THE WORLD!!!!

Ahahaha, now thats good sattire. but the other stuff would be quite odd indeed if it happened. Anything is possible on planet Earth.

Originally posted by DYepes
Please do your research or ask some Florida natives before you assume things. Florida goes through droughts every other year or so, it is not uncommon at all. We have had fireworks banned in certain counties because of them. It has been happening for decades, if not centuries or milennia.

Or sometimes seven year draughts like the one that started in the mid 80's and lasted into the early 90's?

Why is everyone assumeing lately that the latest years' weather is completely new and unheard of?

Not even the majority who posts here do so where did this 'everyone' comes from? Do you find it so much easier to defend a 'minority' position that you will invent one?

I agree with global warming, but this has not much to do with it.

What is the relationship between global warming and weather that can not be explained? Global warming means the planet is heating up; not that it must behave in erratic ways that can not be modelled. If the effects of heating can not be modelled we should question the meteorologist as it does not say much for their 'models'.

Drought dry out the scrub and forest lands, then they breed the fires that clear out all the underlying brush and old trees. Then the rain comes, stomps out alot of the fires. Helps the burnt matter decompose better, and feeds the new life that will grow.

So droughts are a good thing? When you attempt to run for public office i suggest you make that your platform and see how far you get.

This happens all over the world all the time.

Not really..... 'Global warming' does not seem to treat all countries equally badly.

"Pick up any text book on hurricanes and it will tell you that the one place where hurricanes do not occur is the South Atlantic Ocean. The atmosphere does not provide enough spin near the surface to get them started and winds higher in the atmosphere tend to shear off any that do make a start. Hence, it was with some amazement that meteorologists watched the first ever recorded hurricane develop off the coast of Brazil in the last week of March."

Catarina hits Brazil

Global warming perhaps?

"As the heat wave continues to fry Greater Toronto, residents are left with a burning question: Why has this summer been so hot and humid?
The answer is anything but simple."No one wants to answer that question because none of us really knows," said Ellen Wall, a professor of environmental sciences at the University of Guelph.

What is clear, say meteorologists, is that air from the south produces warm weather, while air from the north results in cool weather. Unlike last summer, when lots of northerly air flew over Toronto, most of the air this summer has its roots in the Gulf of Mexico and the pollution-thick Ohio valley, said David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
This southerly air explains the warm temperatures, said Phillips.
What is not known is why the high-pressure system that has hovered over Toronto in recent weeks, resulting in week-after-week of record-breaking heat, has refused to budge."

Toronto Star-Why is this summer so hot?

And when you start looking and you will find these strange weather fronts that just seem to hold in place in ways that are not understood or expected.
I am willing to make a more extensive list than the one i have now but i know how easy it is to dismiss the scientist who admit that they really have no clue while believing almost anything the arrogant/paid for types have to say.

It may be inconvinient to new populations who are living in new areas, but by God that does not mean it did not happen before they lived there.

It also does not mean it's as normal as you want it to be. Why deny the fact that the weather have in fact been behaving far more strangely in certain parts of the world? What is this fascination with defending the 'business as usual' notion?

And now as for this Persian gulf storm, all the hype and commotion in this thread and now it dies down.

How is the first category five storm in the North Eastern Indian ocean not worthy of some commotion and hype? This type of thread is not strange on ATS and i would rather not have you pretending it to be.

Stellar

[edit on 8-6-2007 by StellarX]

Sorry Stellar, but I am unaware of such a drought that lasted seven years in Florida. Granted I was born in 85, but I distinctively remember rain, and lots of it during my first years of school, 91-92 ish. I honestly find it hard to imagine seven years of drought here.

Now as far as droughts being a good thing, I did not say that. I merely stated that for nature, it is how the environment rebirths itself. It definetly helps clear overgrowth for new plants and trees. I merely mentioned it is a cycle that repeats itself often in this part of the country, and many parts of the world.

As far as global warming goes, I am sorry I brought it up.

Originally posted by StellarX
Global warming means the planet is heating up; not that it must behave in erratic ways that can not be modelled. If the effects of heating can not be modelled we should question the meteorologist as it does not say much for their 'models'.

Weather forecasting models work by comparing current synoptic conditions with similar situations in the past. However, if some variables have changed - for example sea surface temperatures are higher than on previous occasions when similar synoptics have occurred, then the models may struggle to produce an accurate forecast. There are also some synoptic situation which some models handle better than other. Basically the models is run several times - producing what we call ensemble members. The close each member is to each other, the better confidence we have in the forecast. But sometimes there are huge variations.

Not really..... 'Global warming' does not seem to treat all countries equally badly.

Exactly. 'Global Warming' is a bit of a misnomer - implying all parts of the planet warm up. In reality, different regions are affected in different ways and some can even become colder. Some don't change at all. It's global simply because the net difference across the globe is for higher temps. I think Multiple Regional Climate Change is more accurate. But not as catchy!

Why deny the fact that the weather have in fact been behaving far more strangely in certain parts of the world? What is this fascination with defending the 'business as usual' notion?

The standard explanation is global warming But, of course, we only have accurate records going back in some cases just a few decades. And there are some natural oscillations which operate on decadal or even centenial periods - a good example is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), only first described a few years ago and which affects sea temperataures (and hurricane formations) over a period of several decades. It's currently in its 'warm' mode and this is the first time we've been able to accurate observe weather systems with a 'warm' AMO - last time it was 'warm' we had yet to launch Sputnik.

Basically, there's still lots to learn (although some meteorologists and climatologists might not like to admit that publicly - I personally know one climatologist who has often claimed that climate models are accurate because we know all the factors affecting long term climate change. I beg to disagree

Originally posted by whatukno
Its interesting how people jump to the conclusion that this was some sort of a man made phenomenon to attack Iran.

It's even more interesting how so many otherwise intelligent people spend so much time advising the more open minded and informed on this forum on how and what they should be thinking.

I think that there could be better ways to attack someone using weather than to sick a hurricane on them.

Like tsunami's, droughts and torrential downpours and strong winds when the wheat is ready for harvesting? Have you been looking at the world recently?

As it stands now it's a cat 1 storm. Thats not a real big whoop overall. Think a sand storm would be less obvious and probably easier to generate right?

But who was the stormed 'aimed' at ( if any) and what type of countermeasures could they deploy?

Then there are those that claim that this is the first storm to hit this region of the world. Sorry guys, but it's true that we have only recorded from 1945 but in all likelihood there were storms just as bad or possibly worse that hit this area of the world prior to 1945 and we just didn't jot it down.

Why attempt to undermine the relatively novelty ( first storm of that magnitude, in that region, in at least 40 years) of this storm by appealing to a historic record you know no more about than we do?

Sorry to burst some bubbles but just because it's rare doesn't mean it's man made.

No 'bubbles' burst , or serious questions asked, so there is no reason to apologise.

Stellar