Are we hours away from war with Iran??

Originally posted by Mammoth
48 Hours? That aint good, Iranian investigations are still ongoing, there hasnt been any contact with these 15 people whatsoever, and there's a chance that these will be indeed used for bargaining. Now sum that up inside your mind and figure how long that is going to take. Nothing has been made clear yet. Both sides are still accusing eachother on what territory they were taken from. I think a simple excuse like last time (2004) aint gonna cut it. Not with these latest developments.

All of that is beside the point.

Iran is holding illegally 15 of our servicemen. They have threatened to charge them with espionage...

48 hours is ample time for a diplomatic solution.

But of course you know as well as I do Iran won’t admit an error or apologies.

That leaves only two options as far as I can see..

1. Rely on interline and attempt a covert operation.

2. commit to taking direct military action

I am willing to bet we will do both in that order.

All the best,

NeoN HaZe.


[edit on 26-3-2007 by Neon Haze]

The Government is believed to have giving a 48 hour deadline. Nothing more has been said, but the Defence Minister has now become very vocal in the UK and has spoken to House regarding this matter.

Originally posted by WestPoint23
Depends on your line of thought, the HMS Cornwall wasn't helpless, it probably had more firepower than all those Iranian ships combined. Personally given this or firing warning shots at the Iranian and not allowing the service memebrs to get captured, I'd go with the latter.

Wasn't the IRNG Navy in the middle of an exercise? I think restraint was best, I could see how that could get out of hand fast.

Originally posted by WestPoint23 given this or firing warning shots at the Iranian and not allowing the service memebrs to get captured, I'd go with the latter.

Wouldn't we all if that was to be the outcome.

In the lack of detailed operational information I would imagine the problem may well have been that the Iranian patrol boats and their personnel were in amongst the British units. In that situation a 4 inch shell is likely to kill your own people as quickly as the Iranians. Additionally Cornwalls CO's rules of engagement may well be fairly restrictive with regard to opening fire in and around that area.

To a considerable extent these operations are carried out on a "confidence" basis assuming that the bad guys are unlikely to risk incurring the wrath of a full UN mandated task force. That may well be a foolish assumption in the case of the Iranians.

So, the question now is when, not if. And might i remind you that a single nuke in an American city would likely yield an over reaction of a magnitude that the Earth will tremble. It is unfortunate, and the people who predict that it would cripple us are fools. It will not cripple us initially. We are like petulent children, still, and the reaction will make Iraq look meek by comparison.

The US is the biggest dog on the planet except for China, who has the USA in it's back pocket. They have already taken us over. They supply a large portion of our economy with their products at the expense of local workers. The main reason for this is to amass wealth at peoples expense.

I have always contended that it will be the USA itself which will be the main cause of its decline. A society motivated by greed and a lust for money at any expense will be the cause for collapse. The people who make up the majority of the citizens that are not a part of the corruption, will be the ones who reject the current administration and the way the nation conducts itself. (Some might refer to it as Civil War, I like to think of it as a step in the right direction.)

There is a point where people are not going to take "hidden agendas" as being a norm.

Originally posted by Neon Haze

Originally posted by Mammoth
48 Hours? That aint good, Iranian investigations are still ongoing, there hasnt been any contact with these 15 people whatsoever, and there's a chance that these will be indeed used for bargaining. Now sum that up inside your mind and figure how long that is going to take. Nothing has been made clear yet. Both sides are still accusing eachother on what territory they were taken from. I think a simple excuse like last time (2004) aint gonna cut it. Not with these latest developments.

All of that is beside the point.

Iran is holding illegally 15 of our servicemen. They have threatened to charge them with espionage...

48 hours is ample time for a diplomatic solution.

[edit on 26-3-2007 by Neon Haze]

I'm well aware of that. I started summing these things up, knowing that all these things still have to be taken care of, before any deal can made. And that takes far more time than 48 hours. And since we all know how Iran can react, like you just said, it only delays it even more.

You are right, those things are beside the point. But concider them important, especially now. They have been captured, and if progress takes too long, its over. Iran getting all stubborn about these 15 on this moment can be a fatal mistake.

Iran has been accused of fueling the violence in Iraq. Perhaps this occurred as the marine and sailors in question got to close to a smuggling operation?

Thoughts on that?

Originally posted by timeless test
Wouldn't we all if that was to be the outcome.

You don't know until you try...

Originally posted by timeless test
In the lack of detailed operational information I would imagine the problem may well have been that the Iranian patrol boats and their personnel were in amongst the British units. In that situation a 4 inch shell is likely to kill your own people as quickly as the Iranians.

The HMS Cornwall should have seen the Iranian ships approaching on Radar for some time and they should have warned the boarding party of moved in closer to them heck maybe even dispatch a helo (basically anything to intimidate them). Once the Iranian ships crossed over into Iraqi water that should have set off alarm bells. Still even from a distance you can accurately fire naval shells to within a few yards distance, precise enough to not hit anyone yet still get the message through.

Originally posted by timeless test
Additionally Cornwalls CO's rules of engagement may well be fairly restrictive with regard to opening fire in and around that area.

That's what I think too, the commander might have also been afraid his actions would scare the Iranian into returning fire. But you also can't/shouldn't just sit there and allow them to get away with this unchallenged.

Originally posted by crisko
Perhaps this occurred as the marine and sailors in question got to close to a smuggling operation?

I don't think so, according to the UK they have been conducting these types of operations in that same area for a while now. Only now does Iran realize they were "trespassing", "spying" or whatever other crap they come up with? Given that this was a fairly elaborate and persitant operation not to mention the fact that they crossed into Iraqi waters shows that it was well planned in advanced. Also the immediate well thought out response/actions of the Iranian leadership shows they were not surprised by this as you might expect if this was a random decision by one of their military commanders.

this was not some chance occurrence where a group of Iranian ships decide to take British personnel hostage for fun. It was most likely retaliation of us capturing some of their intelligence officials in Iraq, they want to use these troops as a means of ... (fill in blank).

[edit on 26-3-2007 by WestPoint23]

I've read snippets from various official Uk news sources, but I'm wondering how the British street is responding to this situation.

Can any of our UK brethren offer a perspective on the pulse of the people? Thanks....

Peace &
Good Fortune
OBE1

Originally posted by OBE1
I've read snippets from various official Uk news sources, but I'm wondering how the British street is responding to this situation.

Can any of our UK brethren offer a perspective on the pulse of the people? Thanks....

From my own experience, at my college, all are demanding the return of the troops and no one is ruling out military action.

Originally posted by kroms33


You are forgetting about the cultural notations made in my remark. Yes, the culture has changed a bit because of the Islamic belief system - but many of the 'old world' beliefs are still maintained also.

the 'old world' beliefs? would you care to name these? so far most of the things you have had mentioned are post Islam!

The fundamental belief if Persians before Islam was that:

There is one god. god created us to be happy and spread happiness. The is life after death. and there is paradise and hell. They were Zoroastians and the prophet Zartosht(Zorastra) according to history lived 6000 years ago.

I think we need to stop using oil - period. Then we wouldn't even care what goes on over there. Yeah, that sounds like an ignorant comment - but hey they have been fighting since the beginning of time.

Persian empire:


Probably was the biggest empire known to man! it was based on Tax and women had maternal leave. They were generals and even Shahs. Sild road was invented by Persian for trade between
China and Europe. Iranians invented money and had cities thousands of years ago!

Actually, you are wrong. The Hittites fought with the Egyptians for a LONG period of time - they were sworn enemies. The Middle Kingdom of Egypt fought with the Upper and Lower portions of the country - and vica versa.
I could go into a long long long history that is not appropriate for this thread.
But, yes - they fought and the lands they inhabited where known by different names back then.
And that remark about white Christians is just silly, anyhow - the WHOLE of humanity has been fighting since the beginnings of time - why should we disappoint our ancestors??

[edit on 24-3-2007 by The Vagabond]

You are talking about Egypt which is on the west of middle east. This is Iran which used to Persia and no Iran is not a new name. Iran was called Iran thousands of years ago. It is used by poet living 1000 years ago.

Islam came from Arabs and took over Persia. Even after Islam Iran/Persia became an empire again. go learn some history!

Originally posted by all seeing light
can we hurry up and get ww111 over with already.lets just run a remote control airplane into a ship and say iran done it.

From Enstein:

I don't know with what weapons will fight the world war 3 but world war 4 will be fought with sticks and stones!

Is it what you are wishing for? my dear friend this is not a game to clock! and move on.

Originally posted by zurvan

Originally posted by all seeing light
can we hurry up and get ww111 over with already.lets just run a remote control airplane into a ship and say iran done it.

From Enstein:

I don't know with what weapons will fight the world war 3 but world war 4 will be fought with sticks and stones!

Is it what you are wishing for? my dear friend this is not a game to clock! and move on.

I don't think zurvan meant that literally... it was meant to be a jibe at the people who want war for war's sake... a little western subtlety...

What I would like to add is that the West would like nothing more than peace and cooperation in the middle east...

The truth is and if you are in Iran as your mini profile says then you will know... The truth is the people of Iran want to be liberated and be free. The people of Iran want to enjoy the luxuries that are available to the west because of their freedom...

I believe until war that cannot happen.

The reason to go to Iraq was to Liberate the people.... Even if it was only part the truth it was a factor..

The reason to go to war with Iran is to liberate the people and to avoid an ever increasing pot of hard line Muslims who are hell bent on damaging the peace and freedom.

This situation with the Hostages is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Iranian involvement in recent Events.

I do hope we can organise a total and complete destruction of the hard line military infrastructure and avoid as many civilian causalities as possible.

When this is over the very face of the ME will have changed.

All the best,

NeoN HaZe.

From my own experience, at my college, all are demanding the return of the troops and no one is ruling out military action

From where, I live quite alot of people are concerned about those sailors/marines being held in Iran as well as having sympathy for their families who must be going through hellright now worrtying, they want diplomancy to work first, before even thinkin about military action, I am sure if it comes to it alot of people on Scotland would back military action against Iran.....


[edit on 27-3-2007 by spencerjohnstone]

From the way the British government is sounding, today could be the last day of diplomacy. Blairs words are starting to get VERY tough now, especially since he said the British are now prepared to take other options.

"quote: Originally posted by OBE1
I've read snippets from various official Uk news sources, but I'm wondering how the British street is responding to this situation.

Can any of our UK brethren offer a perspective on the pulse of the people? Thanks...."

Well ive been monitoring this situation since it began.

We have now set a deadline for the return of our troops, if this does not happen, then i know we will have a sas / sbs snatch team on standby ready to go in and free our boys.

We are always diplomatic, but if pushed we will retaliate with as much force as necessary to complete our objective.

I believe this could be the start of something big, but i think those of us in the know have known for a long long time that military strikes in Iran where inevitible.

I am more interested on the next move from Russia/china "when" we decide to send troops into Iran.

Originally posted by zeetroyman
We have now set a deadline for the return of our troops, if this does not happen, then i know we will have a sas / sbs snatch team on standby ready to go in and free our boys.

We are always diplomatic, but if pushed we will retaliate with as much force as necessary to complete our objective.

I believe that we are now planning some sort of military action.
We are in the 5th day, I cannot see the government bleeding out diplomacy for more than a week. If the deadline was believed to be 48 hours, then today is the last day.

Regarding the SAS, im not sure about a snatch team being sent in. Its more likely that we will strike their nuclear facility and other military targets.

Blair's newest message to the people:
news.bbc.co.uk...

Iran's newest message to the people:
www.cnn.com...

The UK is upping the anti a bit while Iran is trying to ease a bit of the tension. I just hope Iran doesn't do anything terribly stupid, and the moderates are able to make most of the decisions concerning the British troops.

Originally posted by Bugman82
The UK is upping the anti a bit while Iran is trying to ease a bit of the tension. I just hope Iran doesn't do anything terribly stupid, and the moderates are able to make most of the decisions concerning the British troops.

It depends what the UK does now.
Threatening them with military action might get them released, might not. The people of Iran certainly don't support their President that much so the fear of war might push them to revolt.

But of course, the threat of military action could cause the Iranians to get a surge of patriotism. What we need to understand is this, we cannot invade Iran without the support of the whole UN and a multi-national force. We are dealing with a huge army...very huge army. The largest in the world for the amount of troops.