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What the term ``global'' does not accurately describe is the temperatures purported to show a warming trend. The global temperatures are the ones measured by satellite. They show a slight cooling trend over the past 19 years. The temperatures pointed to by the advocates of the Kyoto Treaty are decidedly local: surface temperatures in a small area of Siberia or at selected stations biased toward those near population centers, which are contaminated by the urban heat island effect. They are also limited to a selected time period, leaving out the record that precedes the Industrial Revolution and includes the Medieval Climate Optimum.
Nor does the term ``global'' encompass all the measurements of greenhouse gases, such as the ones that contradict chosen scenarios. Globally averaged atmospheric methane concentrations between 1983 and 1995 show a slowing in the rate of increase, for unknown reasons. While the average rate of increase for 1995 was 5 ppbv/yr, one IPCC scenario assumes that it was 9.8 ppbv/yr between 1990-1995, nearly twice the measured level, and that it will be 12.2 ppbv/yr from 1995-2000. Similarly, the rate of growth for nitrous oxide is assumed to be 0.8 ppbv/yr and measured to be 0.5 ppbv/yr between 1990-1995. Assumed rates of increase in CO2 also significantly exceed measured values (see data from the National Atmospheric and Oceanographic Administration, NOAA, presented in Heartland Institute Policy Study #84, 9/10/97).
www.oism.org...
"One of the great propaganda icons of the United Nations climate-change machine... is about to get swept away as junk science," writes Terence Corcoran "Financial Post 7/13/04, see www.sepp.org). On July 1, Michael E. Mann, one of the creators of the 1,000- year temperature chart published a corrigendum in Nature, acknowledging that "the listing of the `proxy' data set...contained several errors." After describing the errors, Mr. Mann said that "none of these errors affect our previously published results."
The Canadian researchers who pointed out the errors, Ross McKitrick and Steve McIntyre, stated that the claim that nothing had changed was "categorically false."
In a letter that Nature declined to publish, Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Australia, wrote: "The "corrected) Mann et al. graph shows that the northern hemisphere temperature index attained its highest values in the early 15th century, and that the 20th century warming cycle has so far only equalled a secondary warm peak that occurred late in the 15th century."
www.oism.org...
There are no experimental data to support the hypothesis that increases
in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing or
can be expected to cause catastrophic changes in global temperatures
or weather. To the contrary, during the 20 years with the highest carbon
dioxide levels, atmospheric temperatures have decreased.
We also need not worry about environmental calamities, even if
the current long-term natural warming trend continues. The Earth has
been much warmer during the past 3,000 years without catastrophic
effects. Warmer weather extends growing seasons and generally improves
the habitability of colder regions. ‘‘Global warming,’’ an invalidated
hypothesis, provides no reason to limit human production
of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 as has been proposed (29).
Human use of coal, oil, and natural gas has not measurably
warmed the atmosphere, and the extrapolation of current trends
shows that it will not significantly do so in the foreseeable future. It
does, however, release CO2, which accelerates the growth rates of
plants and also permits plants to grow in drier regions. Animal life,
which depends upon plants, also flourishes.
As coal, oil, and natural gas are used to feed and lift from poverty
vast numbers of people across the globe, more CO2 will be released
into the atmosphere. This will help to maintain and improve the
health, longevity, prosperity, and productivity of all people.
Human activities are believed to be responsible for the rise in CO2
level of the atmosphere. Mankind is moving the carbon in coal, oil,
and natural gas from below ground to the atmosphere and surface,
where it is available for conversion into living things. We are living
in an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals as a result
of the CO2 increase. Our children will enjoy an Earth with far more
plant and animal life as that with which we now are blessed. This is a
wonderful and unexpected gift from the Industrial Revolution.
www.heartland.org...
Originally posted by madnessinmysoul
how can pumping billions of tons of carbon, which had previously been stored in the earth's crust, into the atmosphere NOT affect the weather?
if you can answer that question, you will convince me that global warming is false
Originally posted by grover
If you are so dim as to believe that global warming is a false, try googling the 2003/04 Pentagon Paper on Climate Change and read that.
If you are stupid enough to believe that it is a liberal lie, if you have half a functioning brain this paper should change your mind.
The people who wrote this are serious sober people, besides that the Penatgon is not known as a liberal hotbed.
Originally posted by grover
You totally misunderstood what I was saying. I was saying if a very serious, very sober and very conservative think tank within the Pentagon has taken Global Warming serious enough to write a rather long and detailed analysis of its impact on national security then there must be something there.
I do not support this administration one bit but our government is more than appointees pushing an agenda...
google 2003/2004 Pentagon Report on Global Warming and read it, that is unless it goes against your dogma.
You can read whatever reports you want but Global Warming and Greenhouse gases are not fiction.
On a hot day even if there are clouds in the sky the planet is getting warmed by solar radiation (shorter wavelengths). The reason these so called greenhouse gases are becoming a problem is because the heat is re-radiated back into space...but it is re-radiated in longer wavelengths which is why it gets trapped or bounced back to Earth (by the gases).
Scientist know there is much more CO2 in the atmosphere now than ever before because they have ice samples from the Antarctic from 650,000 years ago and they can get air samples from air bubbles trapped in the ice.
The problem is they don't cant say for sure how far we are off the natural cycle in "real world terms." In other words, they can't give us an accurate time or severity scale.
I would suspect that it could become a fairly big issue in the next several hundred years.
I mean it's basic science... if you take away ice from the surface that means more light/heat will be absorbed instead of reflected. And of course CO2 compounds the problem.
www.livescience.com...
There are no experimental data to support the hypothesis that increases
in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing or
can be expected to cause catastrophic changes in global temperatures
or weather. To the contrary, during the 20 years with the highest carbon
dioxide levels, atmospheric temperatures have decreased.
We also need not worry about environmental calamities, even if
the current long-term natural warming trend continues. The Earth has
been much warmer during the past 3,000 years without catastrophic
effects. Warmer weather extends growing seasons and generally improves
the habitability of colder regions. ‘‘Global warming,’’ an invalidated
hypothesis, provides no reason to limit human production
of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 as has been proposed (29).
Human use of coal, oil, and natural gas has not measurably
warmed the atmosphere, and the extrapolation of current trends
shows that it will not significantly do so in the foreseeable future. It
does, however, release CO2, which accelerates the growth rates of
plants and also permits plants to grow in drier regions. Animal life,
which depends upon plants, also flourishes.
As coal, oil, and natural gas are used to feed and lift from poverty
vast numbers of people across the globe, more CO2 will be released
into the atmosphere. This will help to maintain and improve the
health, longevity, prosperity, and productivity of all people.
Human activities are believed to be responsible for the rise in CO2
level of the atmosphere. Mankind is moving the carbon in coal, oil,
and natural gas from below ground to the atmosphere and surface,
where it is available for conversion into living things. We are living
in an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals as a result
of the CO2 increase. Our children will enjoy an Earth with far more
plant and animal life as that with which we now are blessed. This is a
wonderful and unexpected gift from the Industrial Revolution.
www.heartland.org...
Originally posted by Agit8dChop
Anyone who still refuses to accept that global warming is happening really needs to start taking some responsibility.
The argument that the world has gone through warmining periods in the past thousands of years is MUTE.
Why?
Because if its a general cycle of the planet, to have warm patches, then cool off again.. what is going to happen when you add years and years of toxic chemicals into the atmosphere.. ONTOP of the normal warming cycle?
Go look at the northpole, and the southpole... have a look at sat photos of how degraded they have become in the last decade.
Go ask the citizens of New Orleans if they think there current situation is just 'badluck' and not a scientifically proven event where the HEATED WATER CAUSED a storm to drastically increase in strength.
ASk Khazakstan if there wter source dried up leaving boats stranded on sandbanks is just science fiction..
Ask Europeans about the unbeleiveable heatwave that killed 10's of hundereds really happened or not.
If you can explain all these things away, and convince me how decades of pollution, and other toxic chemicals being pumped into the atomsphere HAVENT effected our lifestyles.. then i will submit to you.
Because honestly... 9 out of 10 people can simply walk around outside, and feel the difference in temp, moisture, pressure and so forth just by standing in the sun.
Originally posted by StellarX
If you look at the entire South and North pole you will soon realise that while it melts in some places ( which is what they show you) it's massively growing in other places where there has not recently been any ice..... Why do they not give us ALL the information so that we may judge for ourselves?
Originally posted by StellarX
The world has been showing a cooling trend since 1999 up to now so what exactly is happening in your opinion? How can global warming happen for ten years and then go back to global cooling? It all depends on your data sets and if your actually taking a global mean temperature instead of a specific point that suits your bias.
Originally posted by Essan
Interesting What data are you using?
Whilst thee are arguments over whether 2005 was as warmas 1998 or not, the fact is that the super El Nino of '98 produced a big rise in global temps,
The annual cycles in figure 1 are the result of seasonal variations in plant use of carbon dioxide. Solid horizontal lines show the levels that prevailed in 1900 and 1940 (2). The magnitude of this atmospheric increase during the 1980s was about 3 gigatons of carbon (Gt C) per year (3). Total human CO2 emissions primarily from use of coal, oil, and natural gas and the production of cement are currently about 5.5 GT C per year.
To put these figures in perspective, it is estimated that the atmosphere contains 750 Gt C; the surface ocean contains 1,000 Gt C; vegetation, soils, and detritus contain 2,200 Gt C; and the intermediate and deep oceans contain 38,000 Gt C (3). Each year, the surface ocean and atmosphere exchange an estimated 90 Gt C; vegetation and the atmosphere, 60 Gt C; marine biota and the surface ocean, 50 Gt C; and the surface ocean and the intermediate and deep oceans, 100 Gt C (3).
So great are the magnitudes of these reservoirs, the rates of exchange between them, and the uncertainties with which these numbers are estimated that the source of the recent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide has not been determined with certainty (4). Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are reported to have varied widely over geological time, with peaks, according to some estimates, some 20-fold higher than at present and lows at approximately 18th-Century levels (5).
The current increase in carbon dioxide follows a 300-year warming trend: Surface and atmospheric temperatures have been recovering from an unusually cold period known as the Little Ice Age. The observed increases are of a magnitude that can, for example, be explained by oceans giving off gases naturally as temperatures rise. Indeed, recent carbon dioxide rises have shown a tendency to follow rather than lead global temperature increases (6).
www.oism.org...
after which the world did not drop back to pre-1998 levels. If 2005 was as warm as 1998 despite there being a La Nina then we have clear indications of a continuing increase.
I am not aware of any serious scientists who dispute global warming.
The dispute is over the extent of warming, the extent of human contribution (to which it should be noted that a large part may not be due to carbon emissions at all, but to other factors such as land use changes, although those of us arguing this point remain so far in the minority.
See for example Roger Pielke) ) and future predictions. There is also dispute over how unusual current warming is compared with the geologically recent past (most recent data suggests most parts of the world were warmer than today, and sea ice less extensive, during the early/mid Holocene).
Of course it should also be noted that despite the misundertandings of some, global warming does not mean everywhere gets warmer. Some places will remain unchanged and others may even get cooler. And everywhere will still experience colder weather at times - just not so frequyently (as we in Britain are discovering )
Oh, and when it comes to ice sheets remember that warmer temperatures usually mean more snowfall - so increasing ice sheets and glaciers may themselves be a sign of warming.
Originally posted by Darkmind
(Sigh)
Not another thread about the 'myth' of global warming...
There really is a great deal of good science about this now, and very few scientists now claim that global warming isn't happening.
Let's get one thing straight first though - it really should be described as global climate change (GCC).
Boat mentioned the fact that the ice sheet in Antarctica is growing. No it's not - it's vanishing, with some of the great ice seas breaking up, like the Larsen B. However, it is growing in some areas, because of increased amounts of snow. Why is it snowing more there? Actually because it's warmer there and because the climate is changing. I need to find a link for this.
As for GCC as a whole, I'd like to stress that the (re)insurance industry is increasingly worried about this, as they're going to have to pay the bills once the effects start becoming visible.
I was talking to Professor Bill McGuire from the Benfield Hazard Research Centre about this a few weeks ago and he told me, in fairly depressing terms, that the old predictions of GCC are now becoming observations -
in other words it's happening now and we don't have a lot of time to try and turn it around.