Abkhaz Leader Has Ordered Army To Sink Any Georgian Ships In Its Waters

NATO

77% voted yes for Georgia to join NATO.


The Georgian Times: CEC Approves Plebiscite Final Vote Tally


Other links:
Civil Georgia: CEC Approves Plebiscite Final Vote Tally
Regnum: 77% Georgians voted for NATO membership – Central Election Commission


The opposition plans a "large-scale protest"...


Regnum: Georgia’s united opposition plans to have large-scale protest action on Saakashvili’s inauguration day

Abkhazia to declare independence

Today, Abkhazia announced that they are going to seek recognition for its "de facto independence".


RIA Novosti: Abkhazia wants recognition from Russia and Europe

Here's a new related thread:


Abkhazia announces military mobilization over Georgian 'threats' (by MikeboydUS)

Abkhazia Rejects Autonomy Offer

Georgia offered Abkhazia full autonomy, but Abkhazia said no. They demand full independence instead.


RussiaToday: Abkhazia rejects Georgia’s full autonomy offer



Abkhazia calls Georgia's autonomy offer a "PR stunt" ahead of the NATO summit in Romania.


Civil Georgia: Sokhumi Rejects Tbilisi’s Proposal as ‘PR Stunt’

Russia shot down Georgian UAV?

There has been an incident in which a Georgian UAV was shot down over Abkhazia. Georgia claims that the Russians did it, and there's a video available where you can see a Russian made jet firing a missile at the UAV. Russia denies to having shot down the UAV.


There's a thread here:

Russia at war with Georgia? (by Phoebus)

[edit on 22-4-2008 by 23432]




Mod edit: fixed the code for embedding

[edit on 2008/4/22 by Hellmutt]

There's also a thread about the UAV incident in Breaking Alternative News. Here:

Russia 'shot down Georgia drone' (by infinite)

Russia to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

Russia is about to decide whether they'll recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia or not. A senior parliamentarian said Tuesday, that Russia will likely not recognize independence for the breakaway republics.


RIA Novosti: Russian parliament unlikely to recognize Abkhazia, S.Ossetia

Abkhazia: We shot down both UAVs

Here's a short interview with Abkhazian leader Sergey Bagapsh. He says the Abkhazian air force shot down the UAV, not the Russians. And he also says the video has been edited to make it appear like a Russian Mig-29.


Exclusive interview with Abkhazian leader Sergey Bagapsh (RussiaToday)


In another thread, in this post, member tomcat ha posted his observation from the UAV video. The missile appears to have been fired from its wing-tip, and the Mig-29 doesn't have any missiles on its wing-tip...

We Hope to Avoid War

Russia is increasing its troops in Abkhazia. Georgian State Minister Temur Iakobashvili says they "hope to avoid a war"!


Civil Georgia: ‘We Hope to Avoid War’ – State Minister

Georgia set to invade Abkhazia?

Russia believe Georgia might launch a military operation against Abkhazia within the next few days.



RussiaToday: 'Georgian army set to invade Abkhazia'

The foreign minister of Abkhazia says Abkhazian air defence shot down two more UAVs over Abkhazia today (@ 4 pm local time). He claims the drones proves Georgia's ill intentions towards them. Georgia denies having lost any more drones.

I've found a link. Here:


BBC: Rebels 'hit two Georgian drones'

Georgia: Take some valium

Abkhazia says Georgia has at least 7,500 combat ready troops near the Abkhazian border. Russian intelligence says a number of foreign embassies in Georgia are preparing to evacuate in the event of war. Georgia suggests that the sources of these rumours should take some valium...


RIA Novosti: Abkhazia says some 7,500 Georgian troops amassed in border area

Georgia's withdrawal from an air defence treaty, is another indication of Georgia's intentions to use force, according to Russia.


Interfax: Georgia's withdrawal from air defense treaty reveals plans to use force-Lavrov





And another drone was apparently spotted over Abkhazia today. Abkhazia decided not to take any action this time.


RIA Novosti: Abkhazia detects another Georgian drone, takes no action

Georgia: War with Russia is "very close"

Today in Brussels, a Georgian State Minister told reporters that war with Russia is "very close"!


Reuters: Georgia says "very close" to war with Russia




Bush administration sharply criticizes Russia

Meanwhile, the Bush administration is blaming Russia for making Georgia angry.


Charleston Daily Mail: US criticizes Russia over Georgia-Abkhazia dispute

Thanks for continuous updates on this Hellmutt. It seems that even in Russia we are left to rely on outside sources for whatever the heck is going on there. The only local news sources are Russia's or Georgia's propaganda, which lead to no conclusions and only more confusion.

I have several personal contacts in the Caucasus and Georgia, and so far it seems like much of this is just talk. Russian military activity in the region and regional airbases has not seen much increase from what I hear. Not has there been any change in movement accross the border - if war was imminent you would likely see a stream of civilian refugees from Abkhazia.

As for troops in Abkhazia - I really doubt Russia would be channeling soldiers there. To offset Georgia's supposed build-up, Russia would have to send thousands of troops - which would not go unnoticed. And if it sends fewer than that, it would just be putting its people in potential harm's way. Russia still has a contingent of "peace keepers" there. Abkhazia probably has enough of its own fighters to repel any innitial Georgian attacks.

And even if Russia is increasing its number of troops in Abkhazia, it could well be as a result of Georgia's preparations, not the cause. We really don't know who made the first step, or any step. Every news report offers conflicting views.



And the reported 7,500 Georgian troops also hints that there is no serious threat. This wouldn't be nearly enough of what Georgia would need to secure the entire province. Heck - I bet mere 7,500 troops would get slaughtered if there were to attack, even with air and artillery support. To secure Abkhazia would be no easier than it was for Russia to secure Chechnya in the 90's. Georgia would need tens of thousands of ground troops will full logistical support, and a ton of luck.

The situation is tense, but I would bet that it will gradually scale down in the coming weeks and the status quo will remain. If Georgia attacks, it would be suicide. And I do not expect Russia to change its stance on Abkhazia or to declare it an independent sovereignty.

[edit on 7-5-2008 by maloy]

Here is an article with a run-down of what will likely happen were Georgia to invade.

www.en.rian.ru...


In summary, Georgia's army is still very weak and underprepared regardless of Saakashvilli's recent stunts. The Abkhaz army has a large number of tanks and artillery pieces, without even considering Russia's help. Add to this that any attack in the mountainous terrain of Abkhazia will be very risky and difficult, and would leave Georgia's troops prone to many guerilla attacks.

Even if Georgia was to overwhelm the separatists innitially, it would never be able to secure the province without major outside help. Even if it gets outside help the region will turn into a bloody quagmire with constant insurgent attacks as in Iraq.


Having been in Abkhazia and knowing its basic geography, I would say any attack by Georgia would have to be made not from the Kodori region, but from the south along the sea coast. I can only assume that that region is heavily mined however. And Georgia has no ability to stage a large attack by sea.

So unless Georgia is hoping for NATO or US's support, I would say it is impossible for them to attack. They would be fed through a meat grinder.

[edit on 7-5-2008 by maloy]

Khurcha - Georgian-Abkhaz border - 21.05.08

Looks like someone is on the move...





The UN has "confirmed" that the Georgian UAV was shot down by a Russian fighter. Despite the missile's white smoke, like a ground-to-air and not air-to-air missile...


UN: Russia shot down Georgian spy plane (RussiaToday)