POLITICS: China says "prepared to use Nukes against US"

Originally posted by Sugarlump
But subz how are the rich going to buy their kids bentley's and have their money make money if we drop usury? Think of all those poor banking barons you would be forcing to *gasp* work for a living!!! This cannot and will not be allowed to happen. Remember the true golden rule he who has the gold makes the rules.

So true. I figure that China has these kind of people so firmly by the short and curlies that they will either evolve with us or go broke with the status quo. Thanks China HOORAY

Originally posted by Sugarlump
While your solution is elegant, workable, and ultimatelly probably the only way to save us from a conventional world war 3 I don't see it happening without the average joe pierre and heinz in europe and america forcing the elite at gun point to do so. But bear in mind these people for all intents and purposes own the majority of the western world and have gotten very used to pulling national strings for their corporate fundraisers (us normal people call those wars which are insanelly profitable for banks and defense contractors while detrimental almost 100% of the time to the average citizen). I am still voting you for a WATS for your elegant solution though subz keep up the good work

Thanks Sugarlump I appreciate those kind words. The stage is set for change, theres no way the current economic paradigm will be kept. We've lost control of our own game board. The trillion dollar question is whats it going to change to?

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
Gulp!!! Sounds like fun.
Surely we can adapt to fit in with Chinese economic hegemony. I know it will be difficult but if we can reform ourselves into a high tech, specialised goods producing country, we could maybe carve ourselves a little niche. Or maybe we are just screwed. I'm emigrating...any suggestions?

We could survive with Chinese economic hegemony. We did when it was American hegemony. We've historically been on good terms with the Chinese, we gave Hong Kong up without a fuss (good foresight Blighty!) Your idea of basing our economy on high technology is sound. We've got CERN and now we've got the international fusion development in the EU. We should be embracing the EU with all our might if we want to co-exist with Chinese hegemony. Its really our only hope if we dont switch paradigms.

Any suggestions for emigrating? Pick some where with a lots of resources and good friends. Thank God im going back to Australia in September Even the CIA world fact book terms their economy as "enviable". America would be good as they've got they've got the biggest stick but with all the other baggage (terrorism, psychotic POTUS and the Federal Reserve) I wouldnt choose that. Australia is a de facto American state as far as its military is concerned any way.

Come on Aussie! come on! come on!

[edit on 16/7/05 by subz]

Cheers for your time Subz. I agree on the Europe point too. We definitely need to stand together on this.

Oh and by the way, you can only go to Australia as long as you still support England in the Ashes. Come on the poms!

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
Cheers for your time Subz. I agree on the Europe point too. We definitely need to stand together on this.

Oh and by the way, you can only go to Australia as long as you still support England in the Ashes. Come on the poms!

Your very welcome mate. Thanks for yours.

Support the poms? Damn straight! Aussie hegemony in cricket makes China's economic hegemony look like a bum asking for spare change! Fight the might!

I do not think China would use nukes against the US over Taiwan simply because doing so would mean the complete and utter destrustion of all Chinese cities.

At best China might get a few missles through the black program defence programs and the known defensive systems allready in place for a certain complete anilation of China.

Simply put. China would lose everthing just to murder a few inocent American cities over Taiwan? I dont think so.

This Nuclear exchange would only bruing ruin to China and marginal damage to the US.

Originally posted by subz

Originally posted by RebelSaint
Additionally, allowing China to take Taiwan by force would automatically make the 21st century a Chinese century, as the ability for the US to promote and defend global security would crumble. Any century that has a non-free government at the apex of the international order will not be a century of peace, economic development and the expansion of liberty."

Im sorry but I reject that argument. Its not an anti-American stance on my behalf but just the way I see it. What security did American near-hegemony of the last 50 years give thw World? The Cold War with a nuclear arms race that still has ramafications to this day (this thread). The War on Communism (aka Cold War) gave us Vietnam. The right to self determination was raped by both sides. The start of the 21st century has seen America invade two nations under no international legality and for dubious reasons. All this while it was America who wielded the most dominance in the second half of the 20th century. So wouldnt the same logic imply that a "free government" at the apex of international order didnt change a thing? The World was ravaged post-WW2 and its problems still linger.

subz,
LOL. Don't kill me over something I didn't write. In fact if you read any of my posts including the one you completely took out of context such as this one then you would find that I agree with you on everything you said above. However, the official U.S. policy in relation to Taiwan is not the same as your opinion of American foreign policy.

Originally posted by RebelSaint
The importance of Taiwan to U.S. economic and security interests in the global political economy are paramount to that of securing Israel's existence or keeping Germany out of the hands of the U.S.S.R. Both the US and Chinese economies are intertwined so heavily that a collapse from one would mean dramatic downturn of the other if not complete domino collapse as well.

Originally posted by subz
*checks around for the Delorian* The USSR? I think the document's age is only surpassed by its dogmatic Cold War "domino" mindset. The domino effect is not a credible projection and Iraq proves it. Where is the domino effect of the Americanisation of Iraq? Why hasnt Iran fallen into America's hands? The domino effect was a pretext for fighting the Soviets tooth and nail.

Actually the paragraph you are quoting does not belong to any document. It is my own assessment of U.S.-Taiwan relations in matters concerning the global political economy. If you bothered to read what I wrote you would have found that securing Taiwan's independence is in fact a very significant issue for U.S. foreign policy. It is so important that it belongs in the same category as securing Israel's existence and keeping Germany in allied hands after WW2.

Regarding the "domino" effect that you keenly decided to use in almost every sentence in that paragraph makes no sense in the context of this argument. I was speaking about the ECONOMIES of China and the U.S. If you bothered to read what I wrote you would know that the U.S. and Chinese economies almost completely rely on each other for continued economic growth for both sides. If either country paused or stopped economic trade with the other, there would be enormous economic ramifications for both countries and possibly the whole world in the year 2005 in the 21st century- no need for poor Back to the Future references. The rest of your domino "projections" therefore are not credible to this conversation and the rest of your argument falls apart on a flawed thesis.

Originally posted by subz
The rest of your post I agree with

Took the words right out of my mouth.

If you bothered to read what I wrote you would have found that securing Taiwan's independence is in fact a very significant issue for U.S. foreign policy.

Protecting Taiwan from attack is a core issue, securing their independence is not.

In fact official US policy states Taiwan is part of China, and the US is opposed to any declaration of independence by Taiwan. We are legaly obliged to protect them from attack, but not at all to "secure their independence."

The US would never be attacked that way. It's just rhetoric.

US citizens are needed as consumer 'slaves' to their economy.

Originally posted by xmotex

If you bothered to read what I wrote you would have found that securing Taiwan's independence is in fact a very significant issue for U.S. foreign policy.

Protecting Taiwan from attack is a core issue, securing their independence is not.

In fact official US policy states Taiwan is part of China, and the US is opposed to any declaration of independence by Taiwan. We are legaly obliged to protect them from attack, but not at all to "secure their independence."

Is that not one in the same? China has publicy threatened to forcefully reabsorb Taiwan back into the PRC and Taiwan maintains it will defend its independence and backs this up by the hundreds of billions it spends on military defense technology from the U.S. and other countries. A peaceful merger between the PRC and Taiwan is a longshot so we are looking at a conflict of immense strategic importance to not only China and Taiwan but to the U.S. as well considering China has made its intentions well-known on reacquiring Taiwan within a couple years.

China will absorb Taiwan, economically. The US will watch, moan and rant a bit, then relent. Taiwan is slowly moving its manufacturing and research into China already, it only a matter of time.
The world is changing from regional governmental factions into regional corporate/commerical factions. It is not the US Vs. CHina, it is Microsoft Vs. Quanta computer, Dupont Vs. Siemans.
Its why CHina is building universities 250 at a time, they know what is coming and they will be far better prepared for it than the US.



I am curious if the same people proposing retaliation against China if they did invade taiwan also support the invasion of Iraq by the US..?
If you do support the invasion of Iraq, you are by default supporting the Invasion of Taiwan by China. The US had no more right to invade Iraq than China has to invade Taiwan.

A peaceful merger between the PRC and Taiwan is a longshot

I disagree, in fact I think it's the most likely of all scenarios.
But it won't be dicated by force, but by economics.
The KMT is already moving in this direction, and if the choice shapes up between a) getting rich and b) getting bombed, I suspect most Taiwanese are going to choose a.

What the US wants is for the status quo to continue. I suspect a formal declaration of independence would get no support at all from the US, and I suspect Chen knows that, which is why he hasn't tried.

An invasion, OTOH, might force the US to get involved. But the national policy of the US is that Taiwan is part of China, and that's been pretty consistent since Nixon. We just oppose forcible reunion, not reunion period.

People please, it's not gonna happen. The Chinese aren't stupid. They know President Bush would keep his word and defend the freedom of the Taiwanese people. They are just going to wait until the next democratic president is in office. Then they will buy the very latest of our military technology from him, set him up with a Geisha and some cigars and they'll be able to do whatever they want to Taiwan.

Originally posted by Kaiju
People please, it's not gonna happen. The Chinese aren't stupid. They know President Bush would keep his word and defend the freedom of the Taiwanese people. They are just going to wait until the next democratic president is in office. Then they will buy the very latest of our military technology from him, set him up with a Geisha and some cigars and they'll be able to do whatever they want to Taiwan.

Thanks for the partisan pep talk

Faced with utter destitution on one hand, and unprecedented financial upheaval with aims to starting afresh on the other hand. I think we will choose the uncertainty of completely revising our capitalism every time.

Outstanding comments, subz. I am wondering how you think this would happen? I mean, wouldn't it take rifles and guns to force off the world bank, which would surely not look kindly on our cheating?

Xeven said: This Nuclear exchange would only bruing ruin to China and marginal damage to the US.

I agree completely.

smirkley: US citizens are needed as consumer 'slaves' to their economy.

Hmm, not sure if I agree, because even if they lost all of their 'slaves' to nuke bombs from China, they would have no problem retooling for maximum exploitation of those cheaper slaves south of the equator, who will be virtually untouched by nuke exchange between China and the US Pacific Fleet.

US Citizen = 10 USD per Hr. Number of workers: 200 million
Global Citizen (poor) = 1 USD per hr. Number of workers: 4,000 million

..It could be time to thin the herd. Nuke war would not destroy power infrastructure or roads, just lots of people. Fallout is bad, but manageable. The entire hemisphere will suffer for many years. The rich will still have the best doctors, however.

To continue the boxing analogy previously used if China steps into the ring with the USA, the USA will have a busted nose, teeth missing and possible concussion. Comparatively, China's head would be completely punched off their shoulders.

Does anyone else think that the Japanese are clever enough to have hidden a nuclear program? What if on that fateful day, the Chinese missiles leave their silos only to be dropped in the sea by a Japanese device of some type. Not to mention the idea that Japan would probably be the first target of any Chinese strike on the US pacific coast.

Would a Samurai take his eyes off a Tiger sitting next to him?


[edit on 16-7-2005 by smallpeeps]

Originally posted by smallpeeps
Outstanding comments, subz. I am wondering how you think this would happen? I mean, wouldn't it take rifles and guns to force off the world bank, which would surely not look kindly on our cheating?

Thanks . Last time I checked the World Bank didnt have any rifles or guns. So I cant see a scenario where we would require them to counter the World Bank if it protested.

The World Bank draws its invested wealth from the West. If we are all broke and unemployed thanks to our jobs going to China or we cannot afford debt repayments so all our GDP goes overseas, how will they continue to make money from our investment? They would not support the status quo in that scenario, a scenario that is inevitable and on its way.

The debt owed by the United States and Britain is owed to central banks (Bank of England and the Federal Reserve), not the World Bank. They would not lose any money if we cheated and revised international economics. If they were actually instrumental in this revision they could actually make out like bandits.

[edit on 16/7/05 by subz]

Originally posted by toolmaker

Allow me to retort;
The United States department of Treasury sells roughly 300 Billion in Tbills every year. These are Debt securities, which the american taxpayer must pay interest on. China Buys roughly 65% of these T bills every year, and recieves Billions of dollars in Interest payment on them Every month.
When you read about a 450 billion dollar deficit for the year, exactly where does the money come to make up that difference? From Tbills the treasury sells to finance the debt.

And a fine retort that was. However, you neglect to mention the interdependence of our two economies. If China were not buying T-Bills as they have been doing, then China would have to increase the value of their own currency. This would make Chinese goods more expensive around the world and drastically slow Chinese economic growth. In effect, China, to a large extent, is financing the U.S. defecit as a way of financing their own economic growth. The alternative; however, would be worse for China. A discontinuance of their current monetary policy would produce two primary results: (1) The dollar would decline rapidly in value to a point where it could be supported., and (2) The Yuan would increase sharply in value to it's true worldwide value.

Those two outcomes would drastically reduce the value of dollar investments held by China while drastically increasing the price of Chinese manufactured goods around the world. With the value of the dollar decreased by such an extent, U.S. manufactured goods would become more competitive around the world, thus erasing the current account deficits being maintained, but causing the U.S. economy to slide into recession and causing many other economies to almost totally collapse. The ability of countries to buy Chinese manufactured goods would be doubly hit and the Chinese economy would slow to a crawl, if not itself become recessionary.

I am not defending the Bush administrations economic policies for the simple reason that I think they are wrong. Eventually the U.S. must stop running deficits or run the risk of complete economic collapse. As an aside, WalMart would probably be the first casualty of a Chinese monetary policy change. But, make no mistake that China has the U.S. by the short hairs, if anything we are both locked into a mutually beneficial embrace at the moment.

I've run into one article which addresses the issue more or less objectively. www.globalpolicy.org...

[edit on 16-7-2005 by Astronomer68]

Wow... it seems Dale Brown was ahead of his time. Read books like Sky Masters and Fatal Terrain. Even the attitude of Zhu Chenghu is seen in the Chinese Generals of Brown's books. I've heard many people warning of possible future conflicts with China over the last few years, and that notion has only been on the rise.

Personally, I wish President Bush would do what two other presidents have done, and get rid of the Central Bank. Technically, America is not in debt where it concerns the Federal Reserve.... it is money we owe ourselves. The fed prints money at about 7 cents per bill, whether it's a single or one hundred dollar bill. Then it sells/loans those bills to the government at face value, and wants interest on the loan in real dollars. Talk about a profit margin....

There is no proof China, a most assuredly Communist country, even has ONE working nuke, let alone dozens. There is no way they would win a missile fight with us, not that ANY American president would start one, no matter which party was in power. From what I noticed about a few posts, I still can't believe that anyone with a modicum of brainpower believes that America goes to war for oil. If you truly believe that, then you are completely ignorant of the facts concerning how oil is bought and sold on the world market..... don't believe what your teachers or professors tell you; do the research yourself.

en.wikipedia.org...

"China's last nuclear test was on July 29, 1996. According to the Australian Geological Survey Organization in Canberra the yield was 1 to 5 kilotons. This was China's 22nd underground test and 45th test overall.

China has made significant improvements in its miniaturization techniques since the 1980s. There have been accusations, notably by the Cox Commission that this was done primarily by covertly acquiring the US W-70 warhead design as well as ballistic missile guidance. Chinese scientists have stated that they have made advances in these areas, but insist that these advances were made indigenously without copying American designs."

They've tested them, so that's proof enough? If they're going to test 45, they must have more than 45.

China is not dealing with all thrusters. Anytime China gives up the glorious commercial success they have is like well..nuke-em and silence them.

Seriously though - knock em out of MFN status and let their millions stand alne with NO more indulgence selling their goods to America or Canada.
Dallas

[edit on 16-7-2005 by Dallas]