The sustainability of Harris’ campaign momentum

Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the sustainability of Harris’ campaign momentum

Geoff Bennett:

So, Vice President Harris' campaign launch was greeted with enthusiasm, energy, and a ton of money from Democrats, Tam.

The question is, how can her campaign sustain this momentum for the next 99 days into Election Day?

Amy Walter:

There has been a pent-up enthusiasm among Democrats for someone, anybody who could prosecute the case against Donald Trump. They have that now in Kamala Harris.

I think that's not the part that she has to be as concerned about right now, is keeping enthusiasm up among Democrats, because it's not as — some of it is about her, but it's really, as it's long been, about not being Donald Trump and having somebody who can make the case against Donald Trump.


Geoff Bennett:

OK. So we have seen this polling shift recently. V.P. Harris is within one point of Trump with likely voters. And this is a major improvement when you look at where President Biden was.

Amy Walter:

Yes, not as dramatic as that, but what we're seeing in some of the battleground state polls that have come out in this last week is a shift two to three points in Harris' favor, which is good news if you're Kamala Harris.

But, as we discussed with this enthusiasm question, the real challenge, I think, going forward for Harris, isn't that she got the base consolidated? Well, actually, let me be fair. It wasn't always a given that the base would be consolidated.

So, in one week, to go from being the vice president who maybe, could be — we don't know if she's going to be able to do this, to she's now gotten the base behind her is something that I think was surprising to a lot of people, including a lot of Republicans, who were hoping for a more dramatic and less unifying experience.

But now she has to go the next step. So getting you two to three points or, in that national poll, moving four or five points gets you in the margin, but it doesn't get her ahead. So she's got to make now the sell to the swing voters.

PBS

These PBS news commentators are discussing Harris's challenge over the next 99 days until the election.

So far she has done a quick job making up for the losses of Joe Biden, an accomplishment most in her own party did not believe would happen so quickly.

The commentators suggest that Harris's gains over Joe Biden are due to pent-up enthusiasm within the Democrat party caused by Biden's week performance over the last few months. They believe Harris has made the race competitive again; now that she is more comfortably behind Donald Trump in both the national and battle ground polls as compared to Joe Biden.

Their question now is whether or not Democrat enthusiasm over being competitive again translates into gains amongst swing voters. Can Harris make the next step and go from being behind Donald Trump to leading the race?

Going by my Google news feed over the last week and a half the two main narratives that the Harris campaign is pushing is that JD Vance is a misogynist, believing women are cat ladies, and that Donald Trump plans to be a dictator for life based on an edited speech he had made to a scary Christian group. To day there is news that JD Vance's ex-roommate doesn't like him. And Harris has put out a new campaign ad suggesting our freedom is at stake if we don't vote for her.

All red meat for her Democrat base; but will it translate to gains amongst independents? Joe Biden had been struggling for months to make this race a referendum on Donald Trump's character and not a referendum on his Administration. But the American people continually have put bread and butter issue such as the economy and their buying power as their number one concern.

Will Harris start to talk about these issues in order to win amongst swing voters or will she continue the "cat lady" campaign hoping to sqweek out a victory by turning out her base?

There's a few things you need to remember. Trump lost in 2020. He hasn't exactly done anything to bring in new voters. In fact, his antics surrounding J6, among other things, have lost him voters.

We've also seen consistently for the past two years that the polls have been off, in favor of Republicans. Compared to how Democrats fared in 2020, Dem candidates have been overperforming on average by at least 10 points.

Now, I'm not expecting as drastic an overperformance in November simply due to the Law of Large Numbers. But even a 2-3 point overperformance gives Harris the win. Anything more and it's a landslide.

Harris will win.
It won't be a landslide.
She'll get half the country.
Trump will get the other half.
The left will claim it's a landslide and a mandate.
It won't be.
Then she'll implement her socialist crap.
And the idiots who voted for her will wonder why they have no money.
And they'll wonder why everything is so expensive.
And crime will go through the roof as she encourages the continuation
of the illegal invasion.
But MSNBC/CNN will say 'don't look at that, a brown vagina is in the White House
so everything is just fine'.
Our enemies will laugh at us, but the left won't care because the
brown vagina in the White House means everything is okay.
And the morons will probably re-elect her in 2028.

a reply to: Dandandat3

eventually, there will have to be a conversation about the issues, and "not being Donald Trump" might not be enough.
The Immigration problem, along with the inflation problem, along with the crime problem, along with the war on energy problem....Just showing her stance on those issues based on nothing more than her words and performance should be enough to wake up the one's that need it. But the MSM still has their job to do, and their propaganda/lies are strong.

a reply to: Threadbarer

What accomplishments does she have ? Other than being Black and female, what has she done to help the average American ?

Economy ? No.

Immigration ? lmao NO. For being a Border Czar she's done a piss poor job.

Has she done anything for Black people ? No. They've created programs that help illegals, but pretty much ignored everyone else.

Her record in California speaks for itself and it's not good, so why would you vote for someone who has done nothing and their administration has actually made things worse ?

The answer....They have a D after their name and they're not Trump.

Hell of a way to pick a President.

a reply to: FlyersFan

It's Battered Wife Syndrome or Stockholm Syndrome. They've come to believe they deserve the suffering. I can't think of any other reason they would continue voting for the Party that makes their life miserable.

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Dandandat3

eventually, there will have to be a conversation about the issues, and "not being Donald Trump" might not be enough.
The Immigration problem, along with the inflation problem, along with the crime problem, along with the war on energy problem....Just showing her stance on those issues based on nothing more than her words and performance should be enough to wake up the one's that need it. But the MSM still has their job to do, and their propaganda/lies are strong.

Brother, they will never have a conversation about issues with her. They can't. She was Joe's #2. She is just as bad as him.

2+2=5

a reply to: Threadbarer

He hasn't exactly done anything to bring in new voters

Did he need to? The current administration did that for him. Do people really think others aren’t looking at the border policy as illegals parade into America?
The democrats just picked there next candidate without due process showing they don’t care what their voters think.
The democrats divisively and relentlessly went after a political opponent. Americans watched that wondering if they would be next.

The democrats have done plenty to bring Trump more voters.

a reply to: TheLieWeLive

The democrats just picked there next candidate without due process showing they don’t care what their voters think.

...and the voters didn't even blink. They just threw their support behind who they were TOLD to. They change loyalties like we change socks.

a reply to: Threadbarer

Sure, K, whatever helps you sleep princess.

originally posted by: TheLieWeLive
a reply to: Threadbarer

He hasn't exactly done anything to bring in new voters

Did he need to? The current administration did that for him. Do people really think others aren’t looking at the border policy as illegals parade into America?
The democrats just picked there next candidate without due process showing they don’t care what their voters think.
The democrats divisively and relentlessly went after a political opponent. Americans watched that wondering if they would be next.

The democrats have done plenty to bring Trump more voters.

with the world seeing how the MSM is gaslighting EVERYONE in real time, I think the mask might be slipping a little. When they realize that the NEWZ will lie to them about anything, even important stuff, they might start to question why we no longer have a free press, but a propaganda wing of the democratic party, and as newton's third law states, the opposite for the right, but a much smaller footprint.

a reply to: wAnchorofCarp

Is that his 'grabbing pussy' pose?

originally posted by: quintessentone
a reply to: wAnchorofCarp

Is that his 'grabbing pussy' pose?

Case and point.

a reply to: Dandandat3

The fact that nobody liked Harris until the media told them to speaks for itself. The left is a cult, they judge people by the color of their skin and their sex, they stereotype everyone else. This is why the left always say Trump supporters are cultists, racists, misogynists, hateful, a threat to freedom and democracy, etc.

At least we chose who we wanted.

originally posted by: wAnchorofCarp

originally posted by: quintessentone
a reply to: wAnchorofCarp

Is that his 'grabbing pussy' pose?

Case and point.

Absolutely, case and point but not in the way you mean.

a reply to: quintessentone

Check and mate

a reply to: quintessentone

The contempt that ravages you from that photo evokes the same emotion in others.

Just not the same derangement.....

a reply to: DAVID64

Sure, two old men not knowing about another person's personal space boundaries.

a reply to: Threadbarer

You also have to take into account the influx and deaths of voters.

40.8 million Americans have reached voting age since the 2020 elections. The youth vote usually goes to the Democrats even though they vote far less.

Then you have to look at Trump's base. Majority of his base are the older generations. His campaign slogan even harkens back to America's yesteryears.

Boomers. Boomers (1946-1964) die at a rate of 7,000 PER DAY. 1463 days are between the 2020 and 2024 elections. That's 10 million less boomers this election.

40 million more youth. 10 million less old. And a few million illegal immigrants sprinkled in.

No way this election is going to be called the night of. As always, it's going to come down to about 7 swing states.

Do not forget, THERE'S ALWAYS AN OCTOBER SURPRISE!!!

2020- Hunter's Laptop & Trump's taxes revealed.
2016- Comey Emails & "Grab her by the pu55y".
2012- Obama/Christie Hurricane Sandy response.
2008- Unemployment rises & Obama's aunt.
2004- Bin Laden video & weapons disappear.
2000- Bush drunk driving record exposed.

originally posted by: wAnchorofCarp
a reply to: quintessentone

The contempt that ravages you from that photo evokes the same emotion in others.

Just not the same derangement.....

No, I just know from a jury of his peers that he is a convicted sexual predator.