posted on Jul, 14 2024 @ 10:48 PM
Just a general observation and comment on the state of the race before the shooting...
It bothers me that some folks are concluding that this horrible incident has somehow changed the course of the election. In ways it probably has --
that instantly-iconic raised fist photo could possibly end up being the most famous pic of the 21st Century.
But according to most (if not all) of the poll averages, Trump was already ahead. In fact, in the average that most media sources routinely reference
-- Real Clear Politics, Trump has been ahead since late October.
Polling is complicated, fickle, and unreliable. I am a trained risk management specialist, and many of the same matrices and methodologies are
employed in that discipline.
The difference is, polling is people. People design the polls, people write the questions, people ask the questions, and people give their
answers. That's why Respected Poll A, taken at the same time as Respected Poll B, can have very different results.
This is my opinion based upon my daily fetish of crunching poll numbers...
In the Biden v. Trump popular vote horserace (not how we elect presidents, but let's stay there for now), Trump has been at least fractionally
ahead of Biden since about late October.
I saw a small, but significant widening of the lead -- and shifts in "blue" states toward Trump, in February. By late March, it was clear to me that
the race was moving Trump's way.
The debate didn't do Biden any favors...
Today, in the RCP Average, Trump not only leads Biden outside the margin of error, but the list of "swing states" has increased from 7
to at least 12.
Based upon polling in 2020, compared to the same today, there has been a 15 - 18 million vote flip in Trump's favor.
All that being said, the race was already Trump's to lose the day before Butler, PA. We won't know how the tragedy affected future polling until the
beginning of next week -- after the Republican Convention (15 - 18 July).
Bottom line -- Trump was already significantly ahead in the race before yesterday.