If the Grid goes down who is surviving?

I’ve read that some think 90% of humans will die if the grid goes down.
I think that is a high number, but I do think it will take out a lot of people.

Who would go first?
The gravely ill in hospitals.
Then people that require electronic medical devices.
Then the elderly that are fragile and require help.

The rest is not in order

The mentally fragile
Drug addicts, alcoholics and violent people might get desperate
People on life saving medications
Dumb people that don’t understand survival ie. Getting clean water, how to sanitize, how to start a fire, how to stay warm, cool, how to
Keep things clean.

Of course I think country folks have an advantage, but there are some city dwellers (homeless) that know how to survive almost anything.

Gangs will form and people will start scavenging pretty fast.
People WILL turn on others, but some groups will cooperate
There will be power struggles.

originally posted by: JAGStorm
I’ve read that some think 90% of humans will die if the grid goes down.
I think that is a high number, but I do think it will take out a lot of people.

I would think it would be more than that. I think 90% is low.
Food growing would be gone. Food distribution would be gone.
That right there would take out most people I'd think.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I’ve read that some think 90% of humans will die if the grid goes down.
I think that is a high number

If the grid goes, so does clean drinking water and sanitation. It won't take any time at all for diseases to ravage through cities and towns, so I don't think it's a high number at all.

Most people will be forced into poor nutrician making them more vulnerable to illness, and medication won't be readily available.

IF the infrastructre-like roads and bridges, are also affected only the fitest of the fit stand much of a chance.

Anyhoo-that's how it looks to me.

originally posted by: nugget1
only the fitest of the fit stand much of a chance..

.. and at 61 I'm not the 'fittest of the fit'. So it won't be me who survives.

a reply to: JAGStorm
Well there's two days supply of food in UK stores, very little to hunt, and millions of people, so I'd say whoever has the most firearms on this island eats first.
My assumption is I'll die attempting to defend my stuff...soon as someone with guns turns up in my parish😱🤪

If anyone knows about you, they will know you have food. Only the biggest guns and gangs will survive in the new world, as it dies.

But, if you have food and water, seeds and chickens, etc. you could hide out with your family somewhere for years. Just a matter of waiting it out, as people and ammo run out.

Then.. black powder time.

a reply to: nugget1

If the grid goes, so does clean drinking water and sanitation. It won't take any time at all for diseases to ravage through cities and towns, so I don't think it's a high number at all.

People will have to adapt fast.
My own mother lived without electricity, so it wasn’t so long ago people survived like that.
It will be very uncomfortable at first, but not impossible.

People in certain areas will be screwed, like those in the desert, or other very rough terrain.
Here in the Midwest if you don’t survive, not much can help you. We have plentiful water, and plentiful animals, and so many edible plants.

I’m pretty sure if stuff went down I could support my entire neighborhood with what I could grow. I talked to another neighbor and he felt the same way.

Survival, Water, Food, Shelter, Protection.
Shelter is easy for those that live in houses.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I've been personally waiting for something like this to happen because I could REALLY use a vacation.

How long are we talking? Days, weeks, months, or years?

Long Term:

The vast majority of city slickers are in for it. There are going to be a large number of homeless that will see the same fate, if you ask me. Think of it this way - they survive a lot off of garbage and handouts. They would last quite a while, but not indefinitely.

Those from the city that do survive will be in gangs and having power struggles like you said. Gangs that already exist will need to exercise their aggression because they likely have little to no survival skills. It'll be a hierarchy system of payment of goods for protection and "community".

They will be having power struggles with militia groups and local authorities, which..... meh, the big ones can all fight each other and keep each other occupied. The more they fight, the less chance there will be of them giving others trying to be self sufficient a hard time.

The militias and authorities will be fighting to try and bring order around that few people will want, so they'll be viewed negatively by many, just like the inner city gangs (albeit not as much).

The people like my wife and I, we'll be out of sight with our own contingencies in place, living quite comfortably. I won't lie and say I can do it without her, we each have separate skills that are incomplete apart, but perfect together.

The elite and politicians/rich? lol. We're coming for you.

Short Term:

Honestly, the same will probably happen. A person is smart. People are dumb, dangerous, panicky animals and you know it.

I've read like a hundred post-apocalyptic fiction books. Most dealing with EMP scenarios. I find it fascinating.

If there is no electricity, then the sick will die almost immediately. People with pacemakers, etc. Then you have those that are dependent upon medication like people with diabetes, etc. Once the medicine runs out, they are gone.

Grocery stores only have about 3 days worth of food on shelves. Same with typical home. Initially, things will be fine and people will work together. However, once it becomes clear the power ain't coming back on and no help is coming, the thin veneer of civilized society will wear off. The psychopaths' and gangs will then start taking over.

People will get desperate. Big cities will be the worst places to be as you have a lot of people, most of which don't have any resources or skills to care for themselves. There will be a mass exodus out of cities. Rural communities within a few days in walking distance will be over run with survivors. Only far out places that are hard to reach will be spared and even those will have their own problems.

a reply to: Edumakated

I've read like a hundred post-apocalyptic fiction books. Most dealing with EMP scenarios. I find it fascinating. If there is no electricity, then the sick will die almost immediately. People with pacemakers, etc. Then you have those that are dependent upon medication like people with diabetes, etc. Once the medicine runs out, they are gone.

Type 1 diabetes will be toast, but type II just might discover their “cure”…
Fasting!

I love this subject too, and I think growing up and hearing how my mom and dad lived and their warm recollections made it both interesting and something I love to read and talk about.
Both my parents had coal or fire heat. My mom did wash in the river and all food was preserved. They rarely ate meat and sugar just wasn’t part of their diet. She hated anything sweet until the day she died.
My FIL really lived off grid. He had never been to a grocery store growing up and they basically caught their dinner every day. Catfish, frog legs, squirrel etc. He was actually quite the cook!

People will get desperate. Big cities will be the worst places to be as you have a lot of people, most of which don't have any resources or skills to care for themselves. There will be a mass exodus out of cities. Rural communities within a few days in walking distance will be over run with survivors. Only far out places that are hard to reach will be spared and even those will have their own problems.

There’s a lot people don’t know about those far out places. I know by us a bit North, it is hardly populate. That is where they release all the animals pest control catches! Huge rodent, racoon, pest problem in general.

A lot of people have zero clue how bad rodent problems are. Even out where I am they are everywhere and we actively have to do things to control them.

If the food supply is disrupted, many people will be forced into fasting. In this metabolic state, the body culls dead and damaged cells, and generally overhauls the immune system, among other beneficial processes. It would be dreadful if something catastrophic were to occur, but all the same, it’s interesting to ponder the impact widespread fasting could have in the absence of typical sanitation practices.

originally posted by: QRST4D
If the food supply is disrupted, many people will be forced into fasting. In this metabolic state, the body culls dead and damaged cells, and generally overhauls the immune system, among other beneficial processes. It would be dreadful if something catastrophic were to occur, but all the same, it’s interesting to ponder the impact widespread fasting could have in the absence of typical sanitation practices.

Fasting is good to a certain extent. The problem is that you need some caloric intake for the type of work that is going to be involved in a non electric world. Almost everything requires energy, muscle.
There are a lot of lazy people that have no clue how hard washing clothes, or chopping wood is!

a reply to: JAGStorm

It was around COVID when I realized the people who are probably best off with any kind of major disruption are the Amish.

Hell, they might not even notice for a while in some of those smaller communities.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: JAGStorm

It was around COVID when I realized the people who are probably best off with any kind of major disruption are the Amish.

Hell, they might not even notice for a while in some of those smaller communities.

The Amish, the very poor will do OK.

I think a lot of young people around 20’s will have the hardest time of all because they are addicted to their devices and haven’t known a world without it.
Have any of them ever read a real map? Or a printed recipe? Paper books?
They will have youth, but many don’t have the same strength/ stamina as generations prior.

a reply to: AdultMaleHumanUK

It’s not just grocery stores with a 2 day supply…

Just in time supply chains showed how vulnerable they are to black swans during COVID.

There used to be a time where there was more regional warehousing and stockpiling, this wasn’t as nimble, but it provided more flexibility during disruptions. Now the supply chain is fine tuned to be end to end within days. Couple that with most goods being made in a different continent and there’s no room for disruption on any goods.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Parents would be wise to do one road trip a year, and one hike a year with their kids to teach them how to read a map and deal with adversity. Bring your phone for an emergency but leave it powered off.

a reply to: JAGStorm

A lot would depend on what you mean by "the grid", and just how long it is down.


Contrary to most opinion, I think folks living in suburbs, and even cities, have a better chance of survival than those living in isolation.

The very fact that "the authorities" recognize the risks involved with a major city's population going on a rampage due to deprivation means that there are, to be sure, plans already made to insure that needed supplies are available. Logistics might cause delays, but lessons have been learned. And a lack of a "grid" is only a problem until it can be restored, assuming there are no other intervening factors: ie war, weather, etc..


Some areas are even already capable of independent operation, at least on a limited basis: serving their own municipalities disconnected from the main distribution network.


I find it upsetting that so many on this forum, and, dare I say, so many who identify as "right-wing" or "conservative" seem to gravitate, almost as their "default" mind-set, to the bleakness, most claustrophobic scenario.


One of our best defenses against a "worst case scenario" is a positive mental outlook.


Based on the tenor of what I read here, day after day, there are not many of you likely to survive even a "minor" disruption to what you have become accustomed to as being "normal".


All I can say is...."Buck up, You're better than that!"

originally posted by: JAGStorm
The Amish, the very poor will do OK. .

The Amish farms will be over run and the Amish themselves will be shot by the hordes out looking for food. I would think the Amish would be the first to die after the food runs out in the cities ... give it a week or so.

If the power goes out nation wide (at least), and for a long period of time (like months), it will be really bad.
All of the nuclear power plants would switch to emergency generators to start the cool down process. This takes about one month to cool down the reactors. The generators run on diesel and will need to run non-stop and be refueled every 72 hrs. This would require every freeway and interstate and road in between to be kept clear for diesel trucks to run non-stop, coast to coast, refilling generator tanks and keeping the 100's of nuclear power plants from melting down.

I imagine a lot of military on every road in America. If you step anywhere near a closed road, you'll be blown away.

It's going to be lit. Add to the fact that all this diesel will need to exist, be here in the country or on the way, etc. Also - still no power and no food and the military is just trying to focus on keeping the 100's of nuclear power plants from melting down.

Haven't done the math on the estimate for how many gallons of diesel it will take to simultaneously keep every nuclear power plant in cool-down mode for at least 21 days straight, but I got a bad feeling that this is will be very difficult.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: JAGStorm
The Amish, the very poor will do OK. .

The Amish farms will be over run and the Amish themselves will be shot by the hordes out looking for food. I would think the Amish would be the first to die after the food runs out in the cities ... give it a week or so.

Ohh good point, people know they stock up!