Israeli Academic argues we could theoretically be just 24 hours away from a nuclear war

a reply to: Mantiss2021

They will need far more than one, and that sort of thing is very difficult to keep a secret.

a reply to: MoreCoyoteAngels

Aight. We could list a lot of ceasefires, and find out who broke which one first, but that would be another topic with a long list. That's all I meant to say with that.

Which rendered this one of those conversation that reaffirmed my general skepticism, btw. And you're my witness.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021
a reply to: Leviathan4

A nation cannot be said to "have", or to "have created" nuclear weapons until, and unless, that nation has successfully detonated such a weapon.


Once a successful test is conducted, the geopolitical status of that nation changes dramatically: it becomes an official member of the "Nuclear Club", and all other nations, both "club members" and non-members alike, afford an increased degree of " circumspection" when expressing aggression.


Kind of like the way bright colors are used in the animal kingdom to warn of a poisonous risk.

The definition above is a little problematic because a country may have developed a nuclear weapon/bomb and haven't detonated yet.

Israel, which has one of the most powerful armies in the Middle East, is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although it has never publicly conducted nuclear tests.

originally posted by: MoreCoyoteAngels
a reply to: Mantiss2021

They will need far more than one, and that sort of thing is very difficult to keep a secret.

You only need one to prove capability.


And you only want to keep it secret until you have a working article.


Was the brouhaha over North Korea's entry into the "Nuclear Club" so long ago that we've forgotten?


Once you have "The Bomb", you make sure you let everybody know.....As a warning Not to "FAFO" with you.



(Unless you happen to be Israel, in which case you keep your Nuclear capability under tight wraps until you have an arsenal sufficient to deal with all the potential enemies Surrounding and Outnumbering you!)

originally posted by: Mantiss2021

originally posted by: MoreCoyoteAngels
a reply to: Mantiss2021

They will need far more than one, and that sort of thing is very difficult to keep a secret.

You only need one to prove capability.


And you only want to keep it secret until you have a working article.


Was the brouhaha over North Korea's entry into the "Nuclear Club" so long ago that we've forgotten?


Once you have "The Bomb", you make sure you let everybody know.....As a warning Not to "FAFO" with you.



(Unless you happen to be Israel, in which case you keep your Nuclear capability under tight wraps until you have an arsenal sufficient to deal with all the potential enemies Surrounding and Outnumbering you!)

You also just put the biggest target on your head you could ever ask for. I wouldn’t want that…you?

a reply to: Leviathan4

Isreal's "public test" of a nuclear device was mostly likely the cause of the "Vela Incident" back in 1979, at least according to experts in the IC and weapons communities.

As to why Israel never did, and never has, admitted this achievement....


Even with their "Ace in the Hole" Israel was, and still is, vastly outnumbered by its often hostile Muslim neighbors.

a reply to: NeonKnights

A "target" no one is willing to shoot at.


Name one member of the "Nuclear Club" that has been wiped out since "joining".


North Korea still exists, unfortunately.


Even ardent rivals India and Pakistan have not (yet) destroyed each other.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021
a reply to: NeonKnights

A "target" no one is willing to shoot at.


Name one member of the "Nuclear Club" that has been wiped out since "joining".


North Korea still exists, unfortunately.


Even ardent rivals India and Pakistan have not (yet) destroyed each other.

None of that negates what I said

a reply to: Leviathan4

Ironic that this thread is almost 48 hours old.

Guess it didn't age well.

originally posted by: Insurrectile
a reply to: MoreCoyoteAngels

Aight. We could list a lot of ceasefires, and find out who broke which one first, but that would be another topic with a long list. That's all I meant to say with that.

Which rendered this one of those conversation that reaffirmed my general skepticism, btw. And you're my witness.

I’m sure the trucks full of medicine and needed supplies are charging forward to awaiting recipients without interference.

a reply to: DBCowboy

Guess it didn't age well.

One might say it did, diplomats 'somehow' pressed Bibi into a 4 hour daily pause during the last ... errr... 48 hours?

It's a deep one tho. Shovel?

originally posted by: Mantiss2021
a reply to: Leviathan4

Isreal's "public test" of a nuclear device was mostly likely the cause of the "Vela Incident" back in 1979, at least according to experts in the IC and weapons communities.

As to why Israel never did, and never has, admitted this achievement....


Even with their "Ace in the Hole" Israel was, and still is, vastly outnumbered by its often hostile Muslim neighbors.

I ve heard of this incident before but it's still a speculation. As to why Israel wants to have this as a state secret we can easily guess.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021
a reply to: aliensanonymous


Quick and dirty analysis/conjecture:



The referenced construction is not a new processing facility, but rather a deep borehole for the purpose of "live fire" testing of an Iranian-developed nuclear weapon.

Thanks for outlining this,. I had reviewed the history of the structure being historic. I am no nuclear physicist. Although I perceive even if Iran set of a small underground test, this would be able to be picked up by Intel.

If Russia or other states enabling Iran have provided them with warheads ready to equip.
Iran would keep it quiet like Israel as someone else said reduces the target on your back.

originally posted by: [post=27213414]Leviathan4

It's possible I an not saying it can't happen or it hasn't happened but a few links will help the situation. But good that you brought it to our attention.

The fact America has a base on the border results in troops always being in Israel. America is waiting for any Iranian interference and it is on like Donkey Kong. Vladimir is not going to sit back and watch the fun. The hole thing is a powder keg.

originally posted by: MoreCoyoteAngels
a reply to: aliensanonymous

I find it hard to fathom as well, but the best explanation is that intelligence knows SOMETHING is going to happen, but not when nor where. Those critical details make all the difference.

Just like we had intelligence that something was coming on 9/11. Suspend all flights because you dont know which ones?

Also, I think we were so busy hunting parents and people that 'tresspassed' the capitol, that we dropped the ball.

Our IC admitted as much when the first thing that they said was that they were already reassigning resources when asked WHY and HOW they dropped the ball. PRIORITIES

Filling up my dbl. post phone issue, need to set up my study and get on a PC.

Great analysis, quite plausible.

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originally posted by: Mantiss2021
a reply to: NeonKnights

A "target" no one is willing to shoot at.


Name one member of the "Nuclear Club" that has been wiped out since "joining".



North Korea still exists, unfortunately.


Even ardent rivals India and Pakistan have not (yet) destroyed each other.

Have you heard of the doomsday clock?

Founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The Doomsday Clock is set every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 10 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to global catastrophe caused by manmade technologies.

thebulletin.org...#:~:text=The%20Doomsday%20Clock%20is%20set,catastrophe%20caused%20by%20manmade%20technologies.

a reply to: Insurrectile

So why have another ceasefire?

If they have all been broken? Isnt that the same thing as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?

Thats called INSANE.


I think if you sum them all up, Palestine or other Muslim group, has broken the ceasefire the preponderance of times.

And doesnt each need to be treated as a separate agreement or why bother?

The only one that matters is the one broken on Oct. 7

are reply to: Mantiss2021

Right.

So you take you one little old nuke, and lob it at your neighbor.

Now watchu gonna do?

Yes, joining the nuclear club is viewed by the world as a scary addition. But until you have an arsenal, you are only going to guarantee your total destruction if you use it.

ETA: that being said, I hope Israel solves the Iran problem for the rest of the world. Now, before they even have one.

a reply to: MoreCoyoteAngels

The only one that matters is the one broken on Oct. 7

It's disingenuous to pretend the settlers didn't kill and displace people in the West Bank before, innit? What about snipers killing kids, journalists and medics during the March of Return? How many people will have to die before you'll consider a ceasefire broken by the IDF?

Doesn't make sense to argue ceasefires if we don't share a definition of basic decency, hence the ongoing insanity. I don't know how long you want to postpone any one or two state solution, but at some point you'll need a concept for anything beyond temporary peace agreements. Right?