Wagner PMC “rebellion”

What if Wagner is not really heading back into russia as a rebellious move? What if it is a retreat? Is Ukraine advancing enough to push wagner out of their borders? Perhaps the “dispute” between Prigozhin and Shoigu is just for optics. Internal dispute with a PMC looks better than losing against the one you started a war against… i feel there may be many angles here. I might be reading too much into it…. But the fact that charges were dropped by Russia against Prigozhin… seems very odd to me.

a reply to: Phatal87

To date ukraine has not even made it to the first of Russia's defensive lines...not even with a supposed 25,000 wagner troops heading away from the front. If anything i think part of this whole show was a ploy to lure Ukraine into an all out attack Russia was well prepared for...and Ukraine didn't take the bait.

Let´s take all that hollywood like BS theater play (supported by the propganda MSM of course) as real for a second and then let´s think about covert redeployment of (russian/Wagner) forces to Belarus.

Some play chess, some only poker...

a reply to: Phatal87

Nope.

Go on to telegram or theync (really, really nsfw and not recommended)or any other site that you can find videos from the Frontline, the counter offensive had been stagnated in its efforts. Now, with Wagner pulling out of the region, that allows for some very kinetic things to happen. They were the only force holding bakhmut, and when they left it was very public. This could end up splitting the occupied territory in two. Also, they disrupted the ability for men and munitions to come through rostov.

Only makes sense IF Wagner was following THE plan. That plan being to flush out elements disloyal to Putin. Otherwise the Wagner column gets destroyed and their leader eliminated.

You don’t call mutiny and then just say ahh, never mind, no hard feelings. No sense.

a reply to: Iconic

And you don't think if this was real that russia wouldn't have struck them on the road before every reaching the main logistical hub for their invasion forces? They literally used the highways the whole day and would be an easy target. I think part of this was a ploy to draw Ukraine into a full commitment attack which I believe they were prepared for...I also think western intel also realized the trap and warned Ukraine which is why we don't see them pushing hard anywhere. Also with a man like Putin do you think he would have let him live if the threat was real?

a reply to: ARM1986
seems like they were just moving the nukes to Belarus as planned and openly stated earlier this month. Look at the pieces. Russia declares moving nukes to Belarus. Wagner recently claims to "seize" or be in control of a command center hosting nukes. The leader of Belarus, where nukes are planned to be moved to, miraculously saves everyone and accepts the alleged insurrectionist without consequence.

Nukes magically deployed to Belarus. A clever scheme indeed.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

But, why go to all that trouble? Why not just send them there. Which they quite openly did a couple of weeks ago?
www.bbc.com...

Rest will arrive by end of summer.

a reply to: Phatal87

Honestly nothing smells right with this whole thing. No theory really makes sense. Its just really bizzare. The ONLY narrative that makes sense to me really is...

Prigozhin genuinely gets upset and wants to teach Putin a lesson. He wants to get revenge. That was hisnonly plan and he didnt think it through (Insaw reports that he and his troops were calling their families letting them know they may day).

Once he got rolling, it was obvious Russia had all of its assets in Ukraine without anything protecting home. Putin left the king wide open for attack.

Prigozhin gets excited, starts heading to Moscow, then realizes, he doesnt have any plan for taking command over an entire country. He doesnt have the resources logistics or knowledge to pull that off. Its like a dog chasing a car, what would they do with it once they got it.

Anyway, his advance scared Putin and the Oligarchs out of their souls, they bought his bluff and paid him off to stop his advance.

Dude is probably ultra wealthy now without the responsibility of running or taking over a country.


Thats the only thing that makes sense to me.

It is hard to believe that military people trained in strategic thinking would start such a thing without a plan for even Day 2. Not impossible, but really hard to believe.

Belarus was, of course, a weak spot. Remember to the media reports (or more correct: lies) several weeks ago about the Belarus' president being sick, almost on his death bed, paired with attempts since months and years to give exiled politians from Belarus some platform? This is of course the old regime change / color revolution playbook.

Or let's say, Belarus was a weak spot. Now they have nuclear weapons. And now they also have a 25.000 man strong elite mercenary group. Suddenly, this doesn't look weak but in fact like a very strong base to potentially launch some operations from.

There are so many dimensions to this Wagner "coup" event, I suppose we will never know the full truth. One result, however, is that up to 25.000 elite mercenaries + equipment suddenly appear at the northern border of Ukraine, less than 100 miles from Kiev, and in striking distance to Poland and the small baltic states. Since Wagner is obviously no longer controlled by Russia, an attack against Kiev by Wagner couldn't be blamed on Russia.

a reply to: Torlin

Not sure that "Wagner isn't controlled by Russia".

If Prigo is exiled, then he won't be in command of what ultimately remains of the Wagner group. But my guess is they will remain an official 'tool' of the Russian state, just under more control than before.

Cheers

a reply to: Phatal87

Thanks for not starting this thread in the "World War III !!" forum.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Given their beefs with Russia's military leaders, might they not be too keen on that?

a reply to: Lucidparadox

Problem is...if he really meant to challenge Putin then used the damned highway system to drive there how is he still alive. There was an air tight case to obliterate their columns or even him as he traveled. Not like they don't have their own sat imaging and ISR aircraft as well as drones. The missiles and air assets are all in Russia so they would be available. Not just that but Putin lets his vassal state save this traitor but he will kill and imprison other opponents for less of a threat?

a reply to: Torlin

Didn't think about that angle...the whole rebel militia with plausible deniability. If thats the case it would be genius but I guess time will tell.

a reply to: RickyD

I wondered that.

It's all very odd. They would have been sitting ducks.

a reply to: RickyD

Why might they want to deny an attack on Kyiv?

If successful they would be screaming victory.

That, and Russia has already tried it.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Aside from the very astute poster above mine talking about a redeployment under cover of this guise I figured it was a trap laid to draw a full comitted attack into a trap. I had assumed western intel caught on and warned Ukraine. Otherwise why wouldnt they immediately fill a 25,000 man gap in the line with a full push to break the lines. Wagner was holding a key area which was just offensively pushed.

a reply to: RickyD

If this was all a cosy ruse, why did Prigozhin rant about the fact that the war was based on lies and that Ukraine was never a threat to Russia, thereby challenging Putin's whole narrative?

That does not fit.

This has clearly weakened his image and his grip on power.

Like I said, Russia has already sent nukes to Belarus quite openly and easily.

Prigo does not need CIA money , wagner is making bank with their operations in africa.

And he needs the Russian population on his side , this is the only way he will be able to survive.

The argument he makes that he is a patriot and does this for his country would go out of the window the moment he takes one dollar from any western faction.

I am with LucidParadox on this one , prigo didnt think it through.