Macron asks Xi to reason with Russia for Ukraine peace and The Offensive What Happens If It Fails?

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: putnam6

That is a theory that I certainly wouldn't dismiss out of hand, it would definitely explain a lot of what has happened since Putin's misguided invasion began.

After reading you're post I did a quick search on Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh and it seems there's a bit of confusion as to their current well being/status.
It was reported that both had been arrested and Beseda and even been moved to the notorious Lefortovo Prison but recent reports coming from the USA suggest that the CIA believe he has hasn't been demoted or arrested and is still in his position as Head of FSB 5th-Branch.

So that casts at least some doubt on the theory....but as I said, I certainly wouldn't discount it without doing more research etc.

And it in no way goes to explaining Putin's true motivations behind wanting to invade Ukraine.
We all have our own theories on that.

I don't know FB it completely suggests the theory that he thought everybody was bribed and at least initially there would not be such fierce resistance. All Im suggesting is there is more to collapse than just Ukrainian valor and Russian ineptness

#2 saw this mentioned elsewhere on the subject, it's highly unlikely Putin's Generals would have sent in raw conscripts to siege and eventually hold Kyiv without knowing there was a high probability of success. They went on further to state the issue of conscripts, in general, is a sore spot for Russia's citizens, so much so that Putin would have never thrown them into the meat grinder, hell forget the conscripts, reports were that some of the on the ground leadership positions were filled with the children of high up party members and they were none too happy with the slaughter the first month was for Russia.

Regardless, the current burn rate of troops seems to favor the Russians, does the average Ukrainian soldier have the will to fight for Crimea and the eastern provinces, alone? Militarily it makes no sense to bleed your best troops without some reasonable and rational belief it will succeed. Regroup recharge and rearming, while negotiating would seem the best course unless they could deal Putin a quick defeat which seems unlikely

But wasn’t Ukraine crushing the Russians, like, I was told Ukraine was winning the war and Russia was running out of, like, everything.

Where’s Andrew and friends? I need my bias confirmed....

a reply to: putnam6

You make a point. Nothing depopulates like a good old fashion war. AND the best war is the one where the last man standing is the one who insisted it happen. Honest. True story.

a reply to: kwakakev

Thanks Schiller,

a reply to: schuyler

a reply to: AndyFromMichigan

the talk about Russia's economy collapsing is just propaganda. China, India, and now Japan are buying Russian oil & gas. The latest country to announce plans to ditch the petrodollar is none other than Mexico.

Wait, wait, wait... say what?

I know China is buying all the Russian oil and gas they can pump, but I hadn't heard about India, Japan, or Mexico? Can you give a link to that? If true, it's a damn important development.

TheRedneck

a reply to: AndyFromMichigan


Ummm...to add to that...Europe...is also buying Russian oil...and gas...

Exports and imports from Russia and the US also increased dramatically this past year...as they did in Europe...






YouSir

a reply to: YouSir

The only pipelines between Europe and Russia are the two Nord Streams and the ones running through Ukraine. The Nord Streams are both sabotaged and useless without major repairs. The Ukrainian pipelines are through a war zone. How is Europe getting Russian oil and gas? Tankers? Black Sea maybe?

TheRedneck

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: YouSir

The only pipelines between Europe and Russia are the two Nord Streams and the ones running through Ukraine. The Nord Streams are both sabotaged and useless without major repairs. The Ukrainian pipelines are through a war zone. How is Europe getting Russian oil and gas? Tankers? Black Sea maybe?

TheRedneck

Link

Some very interesting reading.

a reply to: Freeborn

What would Trump have done so differently?

I doubt he would have had Germany mothball the Nord Stream 2.

That was the trigger for the whole invasion.

TheRedneck

a reply to: JinMI

Thank you!

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck


Ummm...Japan breaks with sanctions

Japan has begun purchasing Russian crude oil above the $60-a-barrel cap, breaking with Western allies thanks to an exception authorized by the United States.

India buys Russian oil

Yet India’s stance on Ukraine remains largely the same. It is still buying cheap Russian oil – in fact, it has bought nearly as much in the first months of 2022 as it did in whole of 2021, according to Reuters – and it remains quiet on Moscow’s invasion. As recently as April 7 it abstained from a UN vote suspending Russia from the Human Rights Council.

I couldn't find much info on Mexico but have read somewhere that they were considering ditching the petrodollar...



YouSir

originally posted by: YouSir
a reply to: TheRedneck


Ummm...Japan breaks with sanctions

Japan has begun purchasing Russian crude oil above the $60-a-barrel cap, breaking with Western allies thanks to an exception authorized by the United States.

India buys Russian oil

Yet India’s stance on Ukraine remains largely the same. It is still buying cheap Russian oil – in fact, it has bought nearly as much in the first months of 2022 as it did in whole of 2021, according to Reuters – and it remains quiet on Moscow’s invasion. As recently as April 7 it abstained from a UN vote suspending Russia from the Human Rights Council.

I couldn't find much info on Mexico but have read somewhere that they were considering ditching the petrodollar...

YouSir

tradingeconomics.com...

a reply to: putnam6

...does the average Ukrainian soldier have the will to fight for Crimea and the eastern provinces, alone?

I categorically assure you that I would fight to my dying breath if any foreign invasion force landed in any part of the UK and I can equally assure you that there are literally millions more like me.
Same as I'm certain that there are millions upon millions of Americans who would do the same if any part of the US was invaded.

Why would we expect Ukrainians to be any different?

a reply to: TheRedneck

I doubt he would have had Germany mothball the Nord Stream 2.

Maybe, maybe not.
But we'll never know.

And he's stated that he could stop it now....but he's never once publicly stated how.
So why doesn't he?

That was the trigger for the whole invasion.

Another one to add to the list?

a reply to: YouSir

Apparently I was somewhat behind on my info regarding Russian fuel exports. This would explain the lack of animosity lately between India and China... if both are buying their fuel from Russia, that would be a point of agreement.

Japan may be puling away from the USA as well. Shipping from Russia to Japan would be easier and cheaper than previous lanes, and with Saudi Arabia (OPEC) no longer responding to US demands, there is really little advantage energy-wise to being an US ally.

As for Mexico... I'll keep my eyes and ears open. If Mexico pulls away from the petrodollar, that should cause some serious changes in the border. As a matter of fact, that threat could explain why the border is so obviously and intentionally left open. Seems I may have found another tunnel in this rabbit hole to explore.

Thank you.

TheRedneck

a reply to: JinMI

After reviewing that link (the shipping lane map was quite revealing), it seems that the Eu ban on Russian fuels was just a public relations mechanism. "We're going to ban imports form those evil Russians!" "Well, that doesn't mean we won't import Russian oil of course..."

Pure BS wrapped up in layers of self-righteousness. Why am I still surprised to see that?

TheRedneck

a reply to: Freeborn

And he's stated that he could stop it now....but he's never once publicly stated how.
So why doesn't he?

I don't know... not reading Trump's thoughts. Maybe, though, it might have something to do with the fact that he's not President and cannot speak for the USA? Just a suggestion.

TheRedneck

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: JinMI

After reviewing that link (the shipping lane map was quite revealing), it seems that the Eu ban on Russian fuels was just a public relations mechanism. "We're going to ban imports form those evil Russians!" "Well, that doesn't mean we won't import Russian oil of course..."

Pure BS wrapped up in layers of self-righteousness. Why am I still surprised to see that?

TheRedneck

Same as every other time innit?

If using ATS as a metric, we can see people being duped, again.

So apparently the strategy works.

a reply to: putnam6

That Clown Macron has no real influence on China.

The one who hid an expensive watch during the interview.

a reply to: Freeborn

NATO hasn't 'grabbed' Finland. Finland chose to approach NATO for membership as it fears a Russian attack, again. Their choice.

Like the people in Donbass that want to be Russian.. There choice..?

Or the million dead in the Iraq occupation .. Their choice...?
Or how about the protests from the uk about it.. THe biggest ever seen.. Did it stop the war.. of course not.

Whos choice exactly..