One year in, no end it sight.

originally posted by: vNex92

Wishful thinking the US/West had already lost in the Ukrankian conflict. Which the US had started 8, 9 years ago

The central question left unaddressed is why Putin waited eight years between employing warlords in Ukraine and the conventional military operations in that country.

You are wrong on that front..

I hope China doesn't undertake military aggression on their Northern flank or elsewhere, but hope doesn't influence historical events.

Should Russia lose and break up which your American/Anglo politicians fantasies since the cold war mentally era. You do know what will happen next?

That concept is nonsensical, a second civil war would scar Russia, but the country would still exist. Nor are we reliving the Indian partition/ independence creation of Pakistan in 1947 in Russia.

China will be next after Russia.

That statement contradicts your above claim concerning that eventuality.

a reply to: xpert11

The central question left unaddressed is why Putin waited eight years between employing warlords in Ukraine and the conventional military operations in that country.

So you all forgot Minsk and Minsk 2 already, entirely?
"Fck the EU" Vicky Nuland maybe?

Noes? Fascinating!

a reply to: Insurrectile

So you all forgot Minsk and Minsk 2 already, entirely?

Whilst you conveniently 'forget' about The Budapest Memorandum, entirely?

originally posted by: nugget1
My fear is that Putin is sandbagging and saving the 'good stuff' for last. He could be doing the same as the US; getting rid of obsolete equipment to make room for the next generation of death machines.

That, or it's a rabbit hole and he's just playing his scripted part to usher in fun times.

Why would he need to make room? Seems insane to want to store his equipment when it could be used to save lives of his soldiers instead.

a reply to: gortex

Prigozhin's attempt to build the Wagner Group into a private-sector version of the SS ran into shoddy Russian logistics and institutional corruption. Also, there is the potential for the Chechens to exploit the situation and for the other Russian ethnic minorities to turn against Putin.

Moreover, Putin and his supporters deny Ukraine's right to exist, so there isn't any room for a peace settlement. Subject to events in Russia, the fighting in Ukraine might end with a Korean War-style armistice or no ceasefire.

a reply to: gortex

I disagree , one year in and the guy who started the war is considerably weaker due to the failures of his military commanders and the rise of Yevgeny Prigozhin , China don't support his war and have published their desire for a cease fire and peace plan.

There are still people out there who believe one word coming out of China?!

China and Russia were plotting together before Putin made his first move.

I'm tired of China's fake stance on peace while they use proxies to constantly stir the pot to keep it going. I don't understand how people keep falling for their crap.

Let's get real. China knows a peace plan is never going to happen. It's like the false belief that peace in the Middle East is possible too. People need to wake up to all of the propaganda.

originally posted by: v1rtu0s0

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: JinMI

I disagree , one year in and the guy who started the war is considerably weaker due to the failures of his military commanders and the rise of Yevgeny Prigozhin , China don't support his war and have published their desire for a cease fire and peace plan.

I think one year on there is an end in sight but it wont be soon , unless events take an interesting turn.

Just curious, what sources do you use for your beliefs?

Sounds like he uses the US State Dept?

a reply to: Deetermined

China and Russia were plotting together before Putin made his first move.

Putin told Xi of his plan for a "special military operation" in the East of Ukraine but even they were blindsided by the invasion of Ukraine itself , China has warned Russia against the use of Nuclear weapons , they are not a party to Putin's war.

Former senior colonel in China's People's Liberation Army Zhou Bo talks to the FT's global China editor James Kynge about Beijing's leverage with Moscow, how China's influence can prevent the use of nuclear weapons in Europe and why it wants a strong relationship with Europe even in the face of increased competition with the US.
www.ft.com...

a reply to: Bigburgh

I'm still thinking this is a ploy by Zelenskyy, Putin to get the U.S. spread it's resources thin. Bankrupt the United States.

Personally, I think this whole war is a plot between China and Russia to test and remove as much western influence from their regions as possible while weakening the U.S. as a whole.

a reply to: Freeborn

Nice deflection! But I don't think anyone should talk about the OSCE whilst ignoring their reports when it's about the victims of this stupid ATO.

But that's probably just me being a dick again?

a reply to: gortex

Putin told Xi of his plan for a "special military operation" in the East of Ukraine but even they were blindsided by the invasion of Ukraine itself , China has warned Russia against the use of Nuclear weapons , they are not a party to Putin's war.

That's just more BS from China. They are never "blindsided". They stir the pot by constantly having North Korea test missiles and assists them in their nuclear efforts. North Korea doesn't make a move without China, since they are NK's only survival.

Once again, China only pretends to be all about peace and against nuclear weapons to fool the world along with their own citizens. They are masters at playing innocent and dumb.

a reply to: JinMI

I'll tell you. Come summer Ukraine is in a defensible position. by fall, ukraine has the NATO tanks it needs to go on an offensive, hitting Donbas hard and pushing east along the south blockading the land route to Crimea. Come winter, they fortify, bring in reserves. Russia counters with a new draft in fall. Come spring Russia and Ukraine hit each other hard, come summer the victor determines whether Russia gets parts of Ukraine, or Ukraine liberates all the territories except Crimea. Crimea is a hard nut to crack, as there is just one bridge that happens to be very long that connects it to Ukraine. It will be hard to take, hard to defend, and hard to push into Crimea. Further Russia will defend it with everything its got. It won't give up Crimea as its its only warm water port. It absolutely must keep it. So, in 2 years, either Ukraine retakes everything but Crimea, Russia expands further into Ukraine, or there is a peace treaty with something in between. Meanwhile, Finland and Sweden are added to NATO, and as soon as there is a peace treaty, NATO funds Maldova through Ukraine to get Russia out of it. NATO expands into Moldova, and isolates Serbia. Serbia capitulates, leaving a European block to counter Russia. Meanwhile in the Pacific, China may or may not try for Taiwan. If they do, America arms dry up to Ukraine as we rush to Taiwan and South Korean aid. Leaving Europe and their MIC to defend Ukraine. if they do, Ukraine stays free, and eventually joins NATO, if they don't Ukraine gets peace, loses part of its territory, and joins Russia. Meanwhile Chinese funds rebuilding Ukraine, and setting up bases.

Camain

originally posted by: Insurrectile
a reply to: Freeborn

Nice deflection! But I don't think anyone should talk about the OSCE whilst ignoring their reports when it's about the victims of this stupid ATO.

But that's probably just me being a dick again?

Here is what the OSCE says sbout the invasion.

Russia is the aggressor and therefore responsible for all human suffering in Ukraine, whether or not it results from violations of IHL and even when it is directly caused by Ukraine, because even that would not have occurred if Ukraine had not to defend itself from the Russian invasion.”

a reply to: ScepticScot

That's not a report, put on your big boy kilt!

So this is your version of "holding the powerful accountable" with OSCE reports? Impressive.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Insurrectile

So you all forgot Minsk and Minsk 2 already, entirely?

Whilst you conveniently 'forget' about The Budapest Memorandum, entirely?

Sponsoring and or being involved in a coup to overthrow a democratically elected govt and then installing a puppet is hardly "respecting Ukraine's independence and sovereignty". Neither is bankrolling a civil war "refraining from the threat or the use of force against the signatory". That's without looking into economic chicanery.

The US tore up that treaty by it's non adherence nearly a decade ago which lead to Russia moving in to Crimea to secure it's strategic interests (for its Black Sea fleet among other things). It was hardly going to give control of the region to the US via a client state. That would be like the US giving up Pearl Harbour (which it probably should as the Kingdom of Hawaii has been under an illegal military occupation by the US for the last 130 yrs).

As the later negotiations the Minsk agreements were an attempt to resolve this situation. Of course the west used them to buy time to arm and train Ukraine and to fortify the defensive positions that Russia are now rolling back.

The reality of this situation is that it is a US neocon proxy war designed to end German/European dependence on cheap Russian oil and particularly gas and to keep it under US dependence and economic control, while destroying Russia itself. The last part is failing so far though.

It's not like these nutters haven't been saying out loud forever that this was their policy (Reagan himself had a Soviet pipeline blown up).

The US blowing up Nordstream is a bit of a giveaway.

Then again, they told us they were going to do that too. If US corporation ever got control of those resources there'd be repairs and new pipelines going in left right and centre. lol.

originally posted by: Insurrectile
a reply to: ScepticScot

That's not a report, put on your big boy kilt!

So this is your version of "holding the powerful accountable" with OSCE reports? Impressive.

It's the view of the OSCE.

So is this.

the mission found clear patterns of IHL violations by the Russian forces in their conduct of hostilities.

Do you not think the the powerful in Russia should be held accountable?

a reply to: ScepticScot

The Russians came up with this War on Terror to begin with?

At some point you should take a closer look at the reports a bunch of suboptimal decisions happened to generate. I don't need Putin to know you are full of yourselves.

Based on information from the Monitoring Teams as of 19:30 20 February 2022. All times are in Eastern European Time.

Summary

In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the SMM recorded 2,158 ceasefire violations, including 1,100 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the Mission recorded 1,073 ceasefire violations, including 926 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 975 ceasefire violations in the region.
The Mission followed up on reports of damage to a civilian property and a factory building in non-government-controlled Mykolaivka, Luhansk region.
Small-arms fire was assessed as directed at an SMM mini-unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Staromykhailivka, Donetsk region and the Mission heard explosions close to its location in Mykolaivka, and Horlivka, Donetsk region*.
The Mission continued monitoring the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske. It recorded ceasefire violations (including explosions) inside the disengagement area near Zolote and close to the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska and Petrivske.
The SMM observed fresh craters in government-controlled Zolote, Luhansk region.
The Mission monitored the operation of critical civilian infrastructure.
The SMM continued to follow up on the situation of civilians, including at four entry-exit checkpoints and three corresponding checkpoints of the armed formations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The Mission monitored a crossing point on the border with Poland.
The SMM monitored the security situation in east and south-east Kherson region.

originally posted by: JinMI

What's worse? It wont matter in the near term and accentuates that there is no intention of peace but to carry on with this war and death of the plebs.

Russia can always just say "my bad" and then go home... I don't think Russia is willing to give up any grounds they currently have, so I think Russia is kind of driving the train here as to what a future response will look like.

a reply to: Insurrectile

Nice deflection!

Not at all.
People constantly mention one agreement when trying to justify Putin's invasion of Ukraine yet conveniently fail to mention another.

Now why would that be?

Its a valid question.

But that's probably just me being a dick again?

Self reflection is a wonderful thing.

originally posted by: Insurrectile
a reply to: ScepticScot

The Russians came up with this War on Terror to begin with?

At some point you should take a closer look at the reports a bunch of suboptimal decisions happened to generate. I don't need Putin to know you are full of yourselves.

Based on information from the Monitoring Teams as of 19:30 20 February 2022. All times are in Eastern European Time.

Summary

In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the SMM recorded 2,158 ceasefire violations, including 1,100 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 591 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 18 and 20 February, the Mission recorded 1,073 ceasefire violations, including 926 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 975 ceasefire violations in the region.
The Mission followed up on reports of damage to a civilian property and a factory building in non-government-controlled Mykolaivka, Luhansk region.
Small-arms fire was assessed as directed at an SMM mini-unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Staromykhailivka, Donetsk region and the Mission heard explosions close to its location in Mykolaivka, and Horlivka, Donetsk region*.
The Mission continued monitoring the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske. It recorded ceasefire violations (including explosions) inside the disengagement area near Zolote and close to the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska and Petrivske.
The SMM observed fresh craters in government-controlled Zolote, Luhansk region.
The Mission monitored the operation of critical civilian infrastructure.
The SMM continued to follow up on the situation of civilians, including at four entry-exit checkpoints and three corresponding checkpoints of the armed formations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The Mission monitored a crossing point on the border with Poland.
The SMM monitored the security situation in east and south-east Kherson region.

You do know there were 2 sides involved?

1 supported and supplied by Russia.