Aerial Event Megathread

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: carewemust

That’s the claim. I haven’t seen any verification yet. They also claim ten US operated balloons have overflown China in the last year.

So do you think this escalates or just sort of fizzle out under all the other news media

maybe now that we're shooting them down quick they'll call it a day and work on the next project.

I'm guessing they've been gathering info on us all these years and are on step 2, countering our tech.

a reply to: Zaphod58

From what I’ve put together, they’ve gotten away with it several times. The initial balloon that was shot down over the Carolinas was only known about because someone saw it and asked about it.

If our military has been so very much asleep at the wheel that it's relying on peeps on the ground pointing at the sky for it's information - then our tax dollars are being wasted. That money should go towards a really big bye-bye American pie party. Looks like we will be speaking Chinese soon

But neither of us believe that. We watch the sky very closely and everyone knows it. This is a weird situation Zaphod. Maybe the weirdest

I'm definitely going to ride this thread out to the very end because none of us knows what's going on - yet, and I'm tired of my own harebrained ideas

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: sussy

I’m leaning towards technology tests. Trying different shapes against different sensors, at different altitudes.

Nah..

this is a psyops stop buying into it. they have chosen to release very specific information allowing the public to fill in the gaps. IF this was really going on as they said. We would have radio silence.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I find it quite coincidental that after a balloon sent from the Chinese, to spy on the US, makes its way across the US and gets shot down after it's too late, we suddenly have object after object miraculously showing up in our airspace and being shot down. I wonder how many people think this is real and foreign countries are actually trying to send more over us a week after hearing about the first one.

a reply to: Spiramirabilis

They aren’t asleep, it’s how radar works. Radar gathers a LOT of data. It can see everything from clouds to birds. You don’t want all that data on the screen 24/7/365. Your operators won’t be able to keep track of everything. So the computer applies a filter. When it detects a target it analyses the signal strength, and speed of the target. If both are above certain values the return is displayed on the screen. If one or both are below those values, the computer removes the return from the screen.

A balloon, or an airship are both going to be well below those values. So as far as the computer is concerned, as long as the filter is in place, it doesn’t exist. That’s how all radar systems operate, to prevent dozens of ghost targets from appearing every day.

a reply to: LSU2018

It wasn’t “shot down after it was too late” though. We were gathering a lot of intelligence from it as it crossed the US. That’s why it was surrounded by multiple types of aircraft. These balloons have crossed US territory multiple times in the last several years. They’ve worked until now, so of course they would keep using them.

More inside jobs, but it's so sloppy... I wonder what spectacle is next? A worldwide laser show? I'm not surprised a bunch of people believe this is some alien invasion. It's just sad that... as long as a majority are asleep to the big picture, "they" will keep pulling sht like this.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Good explanation - thanks. So now we're going to be looking for everything? Because we have to?

How much have we been missing? Do you figure that we've been testing out what we could get away with in other parts of the world in similar ways for similar reasons?

a reply to: Spiramirabilis

NORAD turned off the filters the other night, which is one reason they found these others so quickly. We haven’t done direct overflights, but a few of our systems have pushed things a little.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Spiramirabilis

They aren’t asleep, it’s how radar works. Radar gathers a LOT of data. It can see everything from clouds to birds. You don’t want all that data on the screen 24/7/365. Your operators won’t be able to keep track of everything. So the computer applies a filter. When it detects a target it analyses the signal strength, and speed of the target. If both are above certain values the return is displayed on the screen. If one or both are below those values, the computer removes the return from the screen.

A balloon, or an airship are both going to be well below those values. So as far as the computer is concerned, as long as the filter is in place, it doesn’t exist. That’s how all radar systems operate, to prevent dozens of ghost targets from appearing every day.

That makes sense, but on the other hand, how do they track all the space debris...some of which is really small.

a reply to: peter_kandra

Space debris is usually metallic, and moving very fast. Balloons are generally transparent to radar waves. They can also use different filter setups where only speed is monitored, and not signal strength. Something going that fast isn’t going to be a flock of birds.

Does the filtering only remove on-screen blips or do clutter-defined signals get "jammed" entirely? In other words, is there a backend log function that can capture all returns but only show a selection of that to the radar operator?

The reason I ask is if everything gets logged, I could envision it being like monitoring network traffic. You have a traffic baseline, and for every spike, an alert pops up, which in turn would have to be scrutinized further. Add on some juicy machine learning algorithms that are trained to identify multiple patterns of stuff in the sky, and you have several more free sets of "eyeballs" that can enhance the overall radar operation without the cost of added workload/screen clutter.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Before last week, it was okay with officials that these craft were flying close to the same altitude as jet passenger planes.

a reply to: carewemust

They didn’t even see them on radar. But if any had been, and gotten close the pilots would have reported them.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Before last week we did not know that these automobile sized craft were flying all over the place at 38 to 42,000 ft?

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: sussy

I’m leaning towards technology tests. Trying different shapes against different sensors, at different altitudes.

the little ones could be launched from the sea from boats?

a reply to: Skeletonized

It depends on the set up, and what it’s being used for. Larger setups, like NORAD, and I believe most ARTCCs simply filter and declutter the display. Some systems remove extraneous data that doesn’t get through the filter and jam it. That gives larger setups the ability to pull the radar tapes and play back data, and include everything. So if a pilot reports something the operator didn’t see, they can pull the data and replay it and look at all the information.

originally posted by: sarahvital

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: sussy

I’m leaning towards technology tests. Trying different shapes against different sensors, at different altitudes.

the little ones could be launched from the sea from boats?

It is possible to launch even a large balloon from a ship.

As long as the relative wind speed (the speed relative to the balloon at launch, which takes into account the speed of the ship and the speed of the prevailing wind) is low enough, the balloon can be filled to launch size while contained in a "launch bag".

At T-minus 0, a tear away panel in the launch bag is torn open, and the balloon is lofted.

This technique was developed, and is deployed frequently in desert launch locations where ground winds can interfere with scheduled launches.

Thank you Zaphod, much appreciated thread.
Rainbow balloons

Jane

a reply to: Skeletonized

I was thinking of something along the same lines. Hopefully if this is a legitimate threat by a foreign actor, the DoD will invest in a more modern real time analysis of the radar data. All unfiltered data would need to be ingested in real time, with AI powering the analytics of the ingested data, and a front end made to display the data in near real time for analysts and operators. I don't know that much about radar, but after reading this thread, it seems like there is a latency when applying and removing a radar filter. I suppose I am envisioning the stereotypical round screen with rotating line; however, it is probably more modern for todays personal, but it still may be a mainframe of some kind on the backend.

Also I question why we are being given reports of the made dash to the wreckage. While I adore data and tech to make people's lives better, it is very easy to find an excuse to make the technology better to surveil everything that moves. Baloons and odd shaped "threats" may be a good catalyst. This is all speculation, I have no real proof.