Chinese "Spy Balloon" over CONUS.

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: TheRedneck

Oh, and you told Zaph that you thought it was some sort of "analog remote device"... no, it wasn't. It was an unguided missile, aimed visually. Just a big bullet from a bigger rifle, essentially. Analog is not used for remote applications... too unreliable.

So basically They 'Hip Fired ' a missile from the fighter ? I find that unlikely unless your getting this information from people in the Airforce who actually know.

Note that there was no explosion upon impact.

Don't air-to-air missiles usually detonate in proximity to their target for maximum effect? Well, except for heat-seeking missiles, which target to hottest spot on their target.

But balloons don't usually have a heat signature for an IR missile to lock on to, and often have little to no radar return for radar guided missiles to target.

And, if there was something potentially dangerous on board that payload, you would not want to risk spreading all over by blowing it up, would you?

a reply to: Mantiss2021

Or, you wanted to get what was on it as intact as possible to tear apart and see how it works.

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

The AIM-9X lock on after launch capabilities. Knowing exactly where the balloon is, the missiles can be launched at it without being locked on, then when it gets closer, and can “see” The solar panels and any heat they give off, can lock on to the signature and steer itself.

a reply to: Mantiss2021
Aim9X uses IR spectrum to seek - it doesn't have to be 'hot'.

Further, it does not have to use a proximity fuse either. It accelerated, rocket motor stops, it guides to it's target and NO fuse detonates - they used it kinetically because they didn't want to destroy the array it was carrying.

Like I said, if they need to retrieve it - they will. My understanding is that they'll have a good idea of the sort of data it was collecting and sending back anyway.

Watch this space.

I don't believe it was a weather balloon.

a reply to: Mantiss2021

So, with your background, do you think our Chinese friends might have slipped a small RTG (Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator) on board their "Mystery Ship"?

It's possible if they used polonium 210 as the isotope. Not very efficient, but then again the electronics would be quite efficient. The number and size of solar cells tells me that if they did use an RTG, it would be as a backup in case of solar failure. Any other element would be counterproductive due to the weight of the required shielding.

Then again (kinda thinking out loud here), if the Chinese used a different element but skimped on shielding (it's not their people at risk), aerial reconnaissance would have picked up on the radiation and that would be a very good reason to wait about shooting it down. Can you imagine the political fallout if they shot it down and someone with a homemade Geiger counter discovered it was "hot"?

So yeah, I'd say it is possible.

TheRedneck

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

So basically They 'Hip Fired ' a missile from the fighter ?

Well, explain to me how else they could have fired it? There's no heat signature to speak of, so heat-seeking is out. There's not enough metal there to get a decent radar lock, so that's out. Visual targeting is pretty unreliable at this point in time, so why use one of our most high-tech guidance systems for a balloon that is already off the east coast?

That leaves "hip-fired." A good pilot/gunner can make that shot. Hence, my assumption that such is what they used. Plus, they didn't hit the balloon; they separated the payload and the explosion of the missile (which was probably remote-detonated based on visual positioning) would have destroyed the balloon itself.

Sight the target, launch, and as soon as it gets close enough detonate. All manual. Just like taking down a deer at 100 yards with a rifle. Civilians do that every day.

TheRedneck

a reply to: Mantiss2021

I heard that there was a small explosion on impact that released a small amount of what appeared to be powder. That would explain why the balloon was in tatters afterward. Probably no bigger than a 4th of July firework.

Can't seem to remember exactly where I got that info from...

TheRedneck

a reply to: Zaphod58

That sounds plausible.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

In case anyone is wondering about how propellers could be used at such high altitudes (and because everybody seems to love videos), I found this:


ne-np.facebook.com...


Granted, it's an old video, but who's to say whether the Chinese haven't made some advancements?

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Mantiss2021

So, with your background, do you think our Chinese friends might have slipped a small RTG (Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator) on board their "Mystery Ship"?

It's possible if they used polonium 210 as the isotope. Not very efficient, but then again the electronics would be quite efficient. The number and size of solar cells tells me that if they did use an RTG, it would be as a backup in case of solar failure. Any other element would be counterproductive due to the weight of the required shielding.

Then again (kinda thinking out loud here), if the Chinese used a different element but skimped on shielding (it's not their people at risk), aerial reconnaissance would have picked up on the radiation and that would be a very good reason to wait about shooting it down. Can you imagine the political fallout if they shot it down and someone with a homemade Geiger counter discovered it was "hot"?

So yeah, I'd say it is possible.

TheRedneck

According to Wiki, americium -- 241 can also be used as an RTG fuel.

Isn't that the stuff they use in smoke detectors (and lens brushes, for those of you into old school photography)?

And doesn't China manufacturer things like smoke detectors?


China also is working hard to develop its space program, even planning to establish a base on the Moon in the not too distant future. As I understand it, RTG's, and other nuclear systems are expected to power those lunar sites.

Dual use?

a reply to: Mantiss2021

According to Wiki, americium -- 241 can also be used as an RTG fuel.

Yes. It's not as efficient as Plutonium 238 and requires heavier shielding to be safe than Polonium 210, but it certainly works and is more available.

Isn't that the stuff they use in smoke detectors

Yes.

And doesn't China manufacturer things like smoke detectors?

Yes.

China also is working hard to develop its space program, even planning to establish a base on the Moon in the not too distant future.

That's the rumor.

As I understand it, RTG's, and other nuclear systems are expected to power those lunar sites.

Dual use?

Quite possibly. That's some boss-level out-of-the-box thinking right there! Kudos!

TheRedneck

A couple thoughts:

Chinese has high tech satellites that can see the letters on a license plate. Why do they need a balloon to spy?

Balloon appears just as the Joe and Hunter Biden scandals and Pfizer corruption reach climax.

Could the balloon be a DoD psyop distraction?

Could it be a way to ramp up hostilities leading to a kinetic war which would erase the pandemic/ vaccine controversies, Biden scandals and economic issues.

Could China be testing air penetration for EMP pulse?

Could China be releasing aerosolized viruses?

Could it just be an innocent weather balloon?

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

The AIM-9X lock on after launch capabilities. Knowing exactly where the balloon is, the missiles can be launched at it without being locked on, then when it gets closer, and can “see” The solar panels and any heat they give off, can lock on to the signature and steer itself.

Ohhhhh okay I see , Now that makes sense thank you for the clarification.

a reply to: TheRedneck


In my earlier post when I said 'Analog' you see I was thinking along the lines of a ' Tow missile' minus the wire.

Except I would assume this missile has a Camera on it and a transmitter allowing the Pilot to Manipulate the missile in flight , but I'm probably overthinking it like I usually do .

and Zaph cleared it up for me.

a reply to: v1rtu0s0

People underestimate Chinese thinking all the time. The west is geared towards high tech and watching for advanced threats. China has no problem going low tech, if they think it gives them an advantage. Low tech has done quite a bit of damage to military operations over the years. The USS Cole was a simple boat with a bomb. During Allied Force, there were Serbian spotters sitting around Aviano calling with launch times.

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Mantiss2021

I heard that there was a small explosion on impact that released a small amount of what appeared to be powder. That would explain why the balloon was in tatters afterward. Probably no bigger than a 4th of July firework.

Can't seem to remember exactly where I got that info from...

TheRedneck

When I read "powder", the thought that came to my mind was "anthrax". Got me wondering what a load of anthrax being released 60K ft. up in the air would do concerning a dispersal pattern and the number of people who would be affected. I am guessing that the military would like to retrieve that balloon for analysis too.

So, has anyone figured out where it was actually launched from? And what about the other balloons? Where were the launch points for them? Seems like a ground launch, even in a rather remote area, would be noticed by someone before it got very high in the sky. Three or more eye witness reports would triangulate the launch point.

a reply to: TheRedneck

Thank you!

Just wish I could actually see those propellers the military was talking about.




Now, here's a thought:


What if we (the West) sent a similar airship/balloon, equipped with hi-res video and IR (but minus the RTG) over Ukraine to assist in ISR?


Two can play silly cheap games.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Similar mentality to the idea of Dune and the shields. The shields keep out the glitzy high tech weapons, but the low tech blades will slip past.

China will go low tech because no one thinks anyone would float a balloon. When the Japanese did it, it wasn't so much that the strategy wasn't a viable idea as it was they just were doing it too late in the war, possibly also that the materials they were using weren't up to riding the jet as far as they needed to in order to reach the CONUS.

The thinking itself was sound; they just lacked the time.

Why don't the Chinese float low flying balloons over the continental USA so they can count how many armed Americans there are to shoot them down?

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Mantiss2021

I heard that there was a small explosion on impact that released a small amount of what appeared to be powder. That would explain why the balloon was in tatters afterward. Probably no bigger than a 4th of July firework.

Can't seem to remember exactly where I got that info from...

TheRedneck

When I read "powder", the thought that came to my mind was "anthrax". Got me wondering what a load of anthrax being released 60K ft. up in the air would do concerning a dispersal pattern and the number of people who would be affected. I am guessing that the military would like to retrieve that balloon for analysis too.

So, has anyone figured out where it was actually launched from? And what about the other balloons? Where were the launch points for them? Seems like a ground launch, even in a rather remote area, would be noticed by someone before it got very high in the sky. Three or more eye witness reports would triangulate the launch point.

From 60KFT the dispersal concentration of the ground would likely be less than you would find in any given pasture. Assuming of course that any of the spores survived the hard UV rays at that altitude.

And remember, this was a single balloon, not a tanker airplane. The payload, beyond what was visible, would have been extremely limited.

Launch could have been from anywhere; you'd just need a space large enough to contain the payload. Assuming that the payload array was fully deployed on launch.

I've assisted in regular balloon launches that had initial climb rates of over 400FT per minute; that's 60,000FT in less than 3 hours. Cruising altitude before it could get out of mainland China.