Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Arbitrageur

"I wonder how much the Russian propagandists posting here are getting paid, or do they really believe the propaganda and don't need to be paid anything because they are brainwashed?"

You might say that. I, couldn't possibly comment!

BBC News - Russia can end war now, says PM as Putin warns West
www.bbc.com...

"Putin told Russian state television that this would “mean nothing other than the direct participation of Nato countries - the US and European countries - in the war in Ukraine. "

12 September Update

Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 12 but made only marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area.

Russian forces struck a civilian cargo ship transiting through the Ukrainian grain corridor in the western Black Sea on September 11

A Ukrainian HIMARS strike reportedly damaged a temporary pontoon bridge across the Seym River and wounded a group of nearby Russian troops on September 12.

Russian forces recently north of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and west of Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

13 September Update

Ukraine and Russia conducted their second prisoner of war (POW) exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast on September 13.

Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian and Ukrainian assaults in the area on September 13.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

More at URL above.

Cheers

I rarely comment in this thread, and honestly, I'm not entirely sure what to believe in any of this conflict. I do know one thing...I sure don't like all the death and destruction, regardless of who it is.

A couple observations from afar (i.e. me)...

1. Seems to me Putin doesn't have a lot to lose here. Let me explain. Everything is free to him. He has a large population to conscript for soldiers. And, he has a massive war machine to expend. Rebuilding that war machine fits perfectly into the communist mentality because it creates jobs. Kind of looks to me like Putin is merely looking at the numbers (economically and future population wise), without regard to much else.

2. Ukraine would have capitulated long ago if it were not for western financial and military aid. In my mind, this really begs the question of...'what is the ultimate goal of this war?' In other words, this isn't really a war over Ukraine, but rather a war of the west against Putin. Ukraine just happens to be the mechanism to wage it. So, what does the victor really gain? If Russia prevails, they will be left with trillions of debt to rebuild their war trophy. If Ukraine prevails, well, Russia isn't going anywhere, but then the west will be left with the trillions to rebuild, and Putin surely isn't going to pony up! Then, who was the winner, and who was the loser? Some say "proxy war"; okay, but for what? What's the goal?

3. NATO was reticent about admitting Ukraine before the Russian invasion. If anyone thinks they'll be more likely to admit Ukraine now, well, they've got rocks in their head. NATO and the west may be willing to assist in this "proxy" war, but they're not EVEN going to consider taking on the liability of Ukraine and possible Russian action in the future sparking WW3 now.

For my part, I'd love to see Ukraine send Putin packing like a scalded dog with his tail between his legs, but I don't think that's going to happen. And, even if it does somehow, miraculously, happen, what will be left behind will be nothing more than smoldering, twisted, wreckage of what was once Ukraine. We can pretty much count on this from Putin. Remember, there wasn't much for Russia to flatten in Afghanistan, but there damn sure is in Ukraine. If Putin is going to pull back in Ukraine, then he's going to flatten the place before he does so. If for no other reason, it will be to send a message.

Putin is living in the wrong era. His mentality is Soviet. He wants the old USSR back. He won't get it, but this is where is head is. All you need for proof is to look at his actions. And, the reason he won't prevail is not because of the west (despite what some may think). The west won't stop him...but China damn sure will!

Those are my thoughts.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
1. Seems to me Putin doesn't have a lot to lose here. Let me explain. Everything is free to him. He has a large population to conscript for soldiers.

Then why did Putin say even before the war with Ukraine started that the demographic emergency in Russia is “the most acute problem facing Russia today”?

Why has Putin spent trillions of rubles in various projects trying to fix his population problem, without success?

Why has Putin turned what was already a crisis with not enough Russians of fighting age, into a catastrophe, by starting a war with Ukraine, which caused a million of the best and brightest to flee Russia to avoid mobilization when that was announced, and another half million to be killed or wounded?

If Russia has enough people, why are they not successful in finding enough soldiers for their war and enough employees for their factories?

Why is Russia offering bonuses to police if they can coerce, I mean, persuade, men to sign military contracts?

If Russia has enough people, why are they offering bonuses to women who have babies fathered by military husbands? Why has Putin told women they need to have 8 babies each, when in fact they are on average having less than 2 babies each, a figure not large enough to sustain the population? Russia isn't the only country facing a declining population, but the breakup of the soviet union in the early 1990s caused a significant birth rate drop, which means under 34 year olds are relatively speaking, more scarce, and 18-34 is a prime fighting age. That population problem existed even before Russia's Ukraine war, when a million people fled to avoid conscription, and before at least half a million have been killed or wounded in the war.

A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics

Putin has spoken frequently about Russia’s demographic problems, beginning in his first months as president. Despite spending trillions of rubles on high-profile “national projects” to remedy the situation, population decline continued. Putin’s choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia’s demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe.

The demographic consequences from the Russian war against Ukraine, like those from World War II and the health, birth rate and life expectancy impact from Russia’s protracted transition in the 1990s, will echo for generations. Russia’s population will decline for the rest of the twenty-first century, and ethnic Russians will be a smaller proportion of that population.

Putin is so desperate for more people in Russia, he even waived the requirement to learn Russian to go live there:

Russia Unveils New Pathway for Temporary Residency, Eases Rules for Foreigners

In a significant move, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree allowing foreign citizens and stateless individuals to apply for temporary residency in Russia. The decree is widely viewed as a response to ongoing tensions with Western countries, offering an alternative for those disillusioned with Western policies.
...
Simplified Application Process: The new policy significantly simplifies the application process. Key changes include;

Language and Knowledge Requirements: Applicants are no longer required to prove knowledge of the Russian language, history, or laws.
No Quotas: The traditional quotas limiting the number of temporary residence permits have been removed.

Yet relying on immigrants to solve Russia's lack of people issue is not without its problems, and some migrants are headed back to where they came from:

Russia Accelerates Deportations As Many Tajik Migrants Leave On Own Accord

And, he has a massive war machine to expend. Rebuilding that war machine fits perfectly into the communist mentality because it creates jobs. Kind of looks to me like Putin is merely looking at the numbers (economically and future population wise), without regard to much else.

If Putin was making tanks and bombs and shipping them to other countries, that would create useful jobs, because Russia would then get paid for those exports. But making bombs that explode and tanks that get blown up without exporting them and getting paid for them is not bringing any money into Russia's economy. Trying to support the Russian economy with those types of jobs is akin to trying to lift yourself up by pulling your own bootstraps. To make matters worse, now that the world has seen the poor performance of Russian arms, their arms exports have declined, partly because orders have dried up or been cancelled, and partly because Russia needs what they are making for their war with Ukraine, so that gets priority over exports.

I have no idea what kind of economic numbers and future population numbers you think Putin is looking at. Do you think he's looking at the propaganda numbers, or the real numbers? Russia stopped publishing a lot of the economic numbers they used to publish to the rest of the world after they invaded Ukraine in 2022, so Russian finances are not as transparent as they used to be, but we do know some really bad things have happened to the Russian economy. Take Gazprom for example. Last year it posted its first loss in 24 years, and it was previously called the jewel of Russia because it was so profitable. Gazprom continues to lose money this year, in fact the same can be said for the entire Russian economy, where income generally exceeded expenses through 2022 but in 2023 the entire country somewhat mirrored Gazprom in that expenses exceeded income. They do still publish enough numbers for us to figure that much out. How long do you think they can keep doing that before they use up their reserves?

This youtuber tracks the Russian economy, what few numbers they still publish. Maybe you should check out this video which explains why Russia is desperate for the war to end. Gazprom is losing money, Russia is losing money, and interest rates are already at sky-high 18% which is stifling economic growth to try to control high inflation, and if Russia tries to solve the problem of running out of money by printing more money, the already bad inflation problem will get even worse.

14 September Update

Ukrainian Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Vadym Mysnyk stated on September 14 that Russian forces had 11,000 personnel deployed in Kursk Oblast at the start of Ukraine's incursion in early August 2024. Mysnyk stated that there are various estimates that place the current size of the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast between 30,000 and 45,000 personnel.

Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner of war (POW) exchange on September 14 — the third POW exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, which appears to have generated the short-term effect of increasing incentives for Russia to engage in POW exchanges.

Ukrainian forces continued to advance in Glushkovsky Raion and Russian forces recently regained territory near Korenevo and Sudzha.

Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

I rarely comment in this thread, and honestly, I'm not entirely sure what to believe in any of this conflict. I do know one thing...I sure don't like all the death and destruction, regardless of who it is.

I think your comments are always welcome in this or any other thread. Your words are always carefully considered and well thought out. Sure sometimes we may disagree but that doesn't mean I don't appreciate your perspective. You make people think and question which is always a good thing.

I don't think any sane person likes all the death and destruction.

I think Putin thought it was going to be a straight forward victory achieved within a few days/months and that his forces would be welcomed as some sort of liberators.
He was wrongly advised and as has occurred countless times throughout this conflict I suspect people in positions of power and responsibility only told him what he wanted to hear. As a result he's sort of painted himself into a corner. Nothing short of complete victory will be viewed as a disaster in Russia.

He certainly has more resources than Ukraine, especially in manpower. Yet his rag-tag army of conscripts, criminals and mercenaries are hardly motivated in the same way Ukrainian forces are.
Since the first day of the invasion we've heard how he was keeping his best forces in reserve and that he had an arsenal of modern hi-tech armoury and weapons to call upon.....all seems to be a complete load of bollocks.

Historically Russia has a habit of giving up in long drawn out campaigns fought on foreign soil; WWI and Afghanistan are two such instances that spring to mind. I wouldn't be surprised if something similar happens here.....as long as Ukraine can withstand their advances.
I don't think the relative stalemate does either side any long term good.

And as far as I can tell that is the goal of NATO's policy of supplying aid and arms to Ukraine without becoming directly engaged in the fighting. Resist the invasion and fight to a standstill at which point a negotiated peace may be possible or Russia turns tail and retreats and turns in on itself as it has done before.

You're correct in that NATO had told Ukraine it had no realistic chance of even being considered for membership for at least 25 years. Which sort of negates one of Putin's many attempted justifications for the invasion. But his actions have only brought NATO closer to Russia's borders now that Sweden and Finland have joined and it has bolstered at least European resolve to bolster and strengthen NATO in light of Russia's aggression.

As I see it the most important principle here is that of an independent nations Right to Self-Determination and that powerful countries should not have the right to bully and intimidate other independent nations governments and dictate policy to them.
But we have to be consistent and apply the same values to ourselves, perhaps something our respective governments haven't done in the past.

15 September Update

Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin stated on September 15 that Ukraine has started domestic serial production of 155mm artillery shells.

Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces reportedly recently recaptured territory in the area as of September 15. Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced in the salient.

Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Siversk, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Ukraine has taken out a Russian gas platform in the Black Sea somewhere off Crimea using 14 sea drones and other equipment and personnel.

a reply to: gortex

Did they not see them coming?!!!!

16 September Update

Ukrainian forces advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recaptured territory in the area as of September 16. Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kursk salient.

Ukrainian forces regained territory near Kharkiv City and Pokrovsk.

Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Then why did Putin say even before the war with Ukraine started that the demographic emergency in Russia is “the most acute problem facing Russia today”?

Well, you're talking about two different sides of Putin. He speaks with forked tongue. You know this already.

Putin, on the one hand, talks about long range viability for Russia. This is the 'demographic emergency' you speak of. But on the other hand, the short-term one, he has plenty of expendable bodies to go fight in Ukraine. Is it inconsistent? Of course it is, but so is Putin; he changes direction like the wind. One minute you're his friend, and the next minute you're on a hit list.

I have no idea what kind of economic numbers and future population numbers you think Putin is looking at. Do you think he's looking at the propaganda numbers, or the real numbers?

I don't think he's looks at numbers at all really (other than casually). You apparently didn't understand my final statement about Putin living in the wrong era. Putin doesn't do things based on numbers, he does things based on the ideology he has inside his head. Again, he's living in the wrong era. His philosophy might worked for him 200+/- years ago, but not today. Today, numbers DO matter...and China is the one with the numbers. That was my whole point.

a reply to: Freeborn

Good summary.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Putin is living in the 1980s. That is why he so desperately wants to turn the clock back.

It won't work, but many will die meanwhile.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Where in the world do you get a politician who says what he means and lays the facts out clearly. Putin said that if long range missiles were used to strike deep into Russia, the countries supplying and targeting these missiles will be targeted. This means that the UK and the USA will be in the gunsights . In normal times the News outlets would have ran with this story and kept its citizens informed of what was going down. Apparently, all we get is rumors that Russian subs are circling like sharks around the UK and USA . Waiting for one of these long range missiles to be used against the Russian .

Most of the population hasn't a clue as to how dire this situation is, because the governments involved do not want this to become mainstream as no doubt people will start asking questions as to how what was a spat between Slavic states came to this. The answer is that it was never a spat between Slavic states it is part of the wider agenda to free Russia of its seemingly tyrannical President who has established himself as head of state for life ,and is about to start a new currency backed in part by gold which will cripple the west, as the dollar is backed by very little.

Saudi Arabia now wants payment in gold, that is the end of the Petro dollar. Every country in the past who has tried to opt out of the dollar has been attacked and a new government has been installed. As far as the Western oligarchs are concerned if the dollar is dead then so are they , so that is why a hot war is seems inevitable.

How prepared is the West for a hot war with Russia and China? the answer is it isn't. Would it win ? at this stage it is doubtful....so what would happen if hostilities break out judging by morale a quick societal collapse and a UN presence keeping law and order severe rationing and limited movement of all personnel. Which sounds like the planned great reset more than a MAD scenario. In other words a set up.

Some updates on the front by this guy History Legends.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

sorry I cant take anyone serious that uses the word masterpiece to describe the russian military at this point.

Russia was always going to eventually grind ukraine down through sheer numbers a 3 or 4-1 KD ratio isnt good enough for Ukraine to make up the difference.

this isnt a pro ukraine post, its marveling at the hoops people jump through to try and make this special military operation not look like the death of a nation.

17 September Update

Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk and southwest of Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: annonentity

Putin said that if long range missiles were used to strike deep into Russia, the countries supplying and targeting these missiles will be targeted. This means that the UK and the USA will be in the gunsights .

He can't defeat Ukraine.....how do you think he will be able to beat the US/UK?

In normal times the News outlets would have ran with this story and kept its citizens informed of what was going down.

Its been well reported by all news agencies here in the UK. All over BBC/ITV/Sky news etc and most newspapers. Everyone who takes an interest in the news - I know people who refuse to watch, read or listen to any news and just go about trying to live their lives the best they can - knows about the proposals to let Ukraine use these missiles, the discussions between the UK & US and Putin's predictable response.

Apparently, all we get is rumors that Russian subs are circling like sharks around the UK and USA .

Never read anything about those rumours, care to elaborate?

How prepared is the West for a hot war with Russia and China?

FFS, how many times must we go over this?
What motivation(s) has China got for getting involved in an all out war with NATO etc?

the answer is it isn't. Would it win ? at this stage it is doubtful....

How would a combined Russia/China be able to defeat NATO and its allies in a conventional war?
Russia can't defeat Ukraine after over two years of trying.
How on earth could either nation take on the full might of the US?
How could they deploy their forces to prove any significant threat?

Its just more scaremongering from you.
I get that you are petrified and # scared.....but the sun is still going to go down tonight and come back up in the morning. The world is going to keep on turning.